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Volatility, Confusion Reign As PBoC Intervenes: Chinese Stocks Surge Then Tumble
"Rainbows always appear after rains," China's state media said over the weekend, in a blatant attempt to create the conditions for a self-fulfilling prophecy when the country's battered equity markets opened for trading on Monday.
China's brokers and mutual funds each took steps on Saturday to help stabilize the market which has collapsed 30% in just three weeks, thanks in part to a massive unwind in the shadowy world of backdoor margin lending.
On Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that China’s central bank is set to inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp which will in turn use the funds to help brokerages expand their businesses and reinvigorate stocks. Translation: China’s central bank is now underwriting brokers’ margin lending businesses.
Now, the trading week is officially underway and the above-cited "rainbow" thesis is being put to the test early and often as panicked housewives and banana vendors looking to sell the rips battle the PBoC for control of an insanely volatile market.
As we noted earlier, it may now be too late to resurrect the bubble because the psychology has changed irreparably: "I didn't sell at the peak because people all say the market will rise beyond 6,000 points," Shao Qinglong, a public service worker who has already lost over a quarter of his capital investing in stocks, told Reuters, adding that all he is waiting for is for the market to recover enough for him to break even. "I'm now waiting for the market to rebound so that I can get out."
True to form, the SHCOMP opened sharply higher in a bout of post-PBoC euphoria before diving just seconds later, stabilizing, and then proceeding to crash anew, erasing most of the opening gains in a matter of minutes.
One might have expected this. After all, the fact that the central bank was effectively forced to intervene over the weekend is precisely the opposite of something that would inspires confidence: a simple fact that not one central bank has grasped in the past 7 years.
After all, the more backstops and interventions are required, the more fragile and less "fundamental" any given market is.
Of course, the fact that throwing the kitchen sink at the problem has so far resulted in only a feeble rebound, one which most are taking as an opportunity to sell into, will hardly help. And keep in mind, even if stocks closed green today, there is a long way to go to recover the recent bubble highs, highs which everyone now knows are well, bubbly.
With millions of shell-shocked, over-leveraged retail investors looking to cut their losses just as the PBoC funnels money to brokers to ramp up margin trading, expect the wild swings investors have seen over the course of the last two months to continue and indeed to become even more exaggerated as the battle between Politburo plunge protection and frantic farmer selling heats up.
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Sum Ting Wong
I wonder how many markets 'break' tomorrow...trading froze for various times? This should be exciting!
PBOC needs to hire JPM, Citi and Goldman. When those fuckers intervene, if you are on the other side of the trade you are Fucked, and you can't be unfucked either.
Moar Bazookas
Of course the Fed is still on target for a September rate hike in spite of ever so many folks being ever so surprised by the Greek anomaly.
After all, it's transient and caused by the weather.
No, don't. I don't like blisters there.
WWMS What Would Mao Say?
"Scotty, I need warp drive, NOW!!!
"It's nae use cap'n, I'm givin' 'er awl I got, but she's still crashin'..."
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXHANGSENG%3AHSI&ei=2_SZVfH4EaK1iQKX...
The crash has always been the plan. It was meant to coincide with the Greek turmoil and they nailed the timing. The objective has been to destabilize the Western financial system so expect more "issues" to arise as the Western markets start to get spooked.
US spy plane shot down?
'Terrorist' attack?
Partial grid shut down?
So many possibilities, but of course I'm just paranoid.
LMAO. Chinese Central Planners order asset managers to cease selling stocks.
http://portal.ransquawk.com/headlines/china-s-national-pension-fund-orde...
"News Headline Summary
China's National Pension Fund orders asset managers to halt stock sale according to reports in Caijing"
Exactly. These guys aren't idiots yet they have pulled one stunt after another like they're trying to do a parody of Western stupidity.
Green close today. Just watch - and don't you dare act surprised.
Greece will remain in the Euro. A last minute deal will be reached. Here comes the face-saving round.
Wakey wakey ZeroHedge, Varoufakis has quit! About 2 hours ago!
I once thought there was a "real" economy.
Thank you Mommy Government for the money. I am not stupid like the other idjits. I am selling. Thanks for my personal bailout.
LMAO..They really thought that it would work?
yer, only Western investors are dumb enough to buy that rookie trick
TBTF, Chinese style.
And you people expect Beijing to back their fiat with Gold? ROTF, LMAO.
I'd go so far as to argue that "were it not for China, Russia would've backed their Rubles by PM + Hydrocarbons.
Good point.
China has to stick it to someone so that someone will be...
By the time the USSA figures out how a fiat (Yawn) collapse will effect the world, China will be announcing their huge hoard of real money.
My guess is that the Chinese intervention was only to pretend that the government cares about investors.They knew it wont work.
Only the US government can print unlimited money and throw it around because of their reserve status. Other countries will risk massive inflation if they try that.
The ultimate irony gone full circle; 'the PBOC, fiat printing entity for Chinese Central Command, printing furiously and monetizing already 20x to 1,000x overpriced (or far more, given the # of sham Shanghai "companies") "equities," in an attempt to stave off collapse of "markets."
adding to this irony is the fact that these markets have only given up three freakin months of gains...THREE MONTHS, that's it...unwinding the market clock three months causes a near meltdown!!! it's says something for the one way ratcheting levered ponzi scheme markets.
The Ponzi must move forward, it cannot slow, let alone stop.
We may soon see what it looks like when the Ponzi runs backwards....
The ponzi must move.
Is that like the spice must flow?
If I were a Chinamen and owned Chinese stocks I would sell and grab gold there, preferably physical but you can also open an account at the banks and get a gold passport account and buy thru the bank and they hold it for you ... if your a Chinese citizen. Americans are not allowed to have an account there anymore from what I read, because of FATCA.
Heck, I may just go by my PM store manana and grab a tiny coin. If it's good enough for The Univeristy of Texas, it can't be bad for me!
University of Texas Endowment Holds $1 Billion Gold, 5% Of Its Portfoliohttp://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2011/04/17/university-of-texas...
That's from 2011 but Kyle Bass is still one of their advisers I think.
good luck 84734534whatever. Let us know if your store has any gold. Stores in Houston had no gold bullion Saturday.
The Chinese are compulsive gamblers. Whether it's an illegal gambling house in the backstreets of Shanghai or some rural province, the casinos in Macau or their own stock exchanges: they'll get over it soon, and get right back in the game again.
P.s. I thought the Chinese were so smart and could do nothing wrong? So far we've seen housing bubbles, stock bubbles, and a government ready to step in with freshly printed fiat Yuans. What's the difference with the West? Do people here honestly believe that China is really buying all that gold and that they will ever introduce a gold-backed Yuan?
+1000. Best post of the thread.
Yup, completely agree with Kotz747, something I've said all along.
To all China fanboys 'n girls here on ZH: go to China for yourself and get a first hand view of all the bubbles, the bureaucratic government, the police state, the severely restricted internet and the pollution.
And you think that these control freak central planning gamblers will introduce a gold standard and thus limit their own ability to control and manipulate the supply of money?! Hahahah!
Not in a million years, but it's a great ploy to get the average European or American Joe Sixpack (who most probably have never been to China and can barely find China on a map) to pile into gold, drive prices higher so that the people controlling these propaganda websites can unload their gold to the next greater fool, or earn some fiat Dollars/Euros/Yen/Pounds/Yuan on the commissions.
These goldbug conspiracy websites are the modern day version of the good old "pump-and-dump" scams.
The Chinese will introduce two currencies:
One, partially-backed by gold, will be for foreign consumption and international transactions. This will have near-reserve currency status, and will be used for currency wars vs. competitors (dollar, yen, euro). This will be in very limited (read: for the wealthy only) circulation for Chinese citizens. Call this one the Panda.
The second one will be pure fiat paper intended for domestic consumption, and will have the force of legal tender for all debts, public and private, and for the payment of taxes. This one will remain named Yuan.
Ra Roo
Wi Tu Lo
Ho li phuc
Au lit chie... Arghhhh Sarkouille et Mèrequelle....
The Unicorns are crying but no tears are left
Perhaps, but they are farting rainbows at least.
Ho Lee Fuk
We Tu Lo
"Rainbows always appear after rains,"
Sure, tell that to the bloated bodies after the deluge.
Tsunami's don't make rainbows.
The debt game carried to the very end.
Literally Rainbows?
"Hell, let's throw in the Unicorns and Skittles for free then!"
I mean that is the darndest excuse for "crony capitalism" that I have ever heard.
"Because after it rains we have rainbows"???
"So shut up here's your 100 trillion yuan"?
Rainbows indeed...
How about "we make money have profit let market decide!"?
No?
"Mo Bailout"?
man...I sure wish I could get one of those...
Lower interest rates even...
if you've ever been to Macau, you would know that mass entrance of the Chinese population into the markets is a recipe for awesome wealth destruction/transfer. I saw unimaginably stupid and irrational blackjack plays that boggled the mind, and the game of choice -- baccarat (a game requiring no skill, just a choice of which side of the bet to be on) --- being played with Martingale on crack type philosophies with incredible sums of money wagered on every hand. These people are cruising for a bruising.
Never been. Interacted with plenty of Chinese (not Chinese-Americans), however, in casinos. Saw one guy recently scurrying around the floor w/ a tray of chips looking for an opening at a blackjack table. I thought "What happens if he trips?"
Same result as if he finds an open seat, 9 times out of 10.
Haha, If he finds a seat it just takes longer to lose it. 10/10 if he palys for long enough.
also, with baccarat, a game of no skill, the Chinese are infatuated with studying the technical analysis that is tracked (i.e. prior results as a shoe is played out). No different than studying 50 previous coin flips to determine what the 51st will be. Imagine the thrill of stock charts and the voodoo of TA....
Lots of chartists sitting at the bottom the sea... I hope they don't find my lost gold!
Yeah Baccarat can be counted as Blackjack can.
As for a game of no skill...for you it will be best that you abstain from Casinos and Casino Gambling as you are not a professional...at all.
Writing from the experience of being a Long Term Net Winner...I have been invited to leave 12 Different Casinos as they do not like my style f play...as I play to win and that I do consistently.
Have you ever been extended an invitation to the Back Room? It is not at all pleasant.
Bull fucking shit it can. Not without a computer.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/
The margin is in the house's favor and you cannot change the odds. You can only get lucky and that is not brilliance.
Poker is the only rational gambling. The house gets the rake and the rest goes to the players. The best players win out over time.
agree with that sentiment, though I love a good blackjack shoe with a player favorable count in the middle of a session playing with house money.
I enjoy craps and roulette, myself. Craps is the most exciting and roulette is relaxing and I can pick the amount of risk I want to take, wether picking one number, a row or red.
However, I never fool myself about the odds. It just feels good to beat them once in awhile. I think there is some analogy to life in there somewhere.
"...studying the technical analysis that is tracked (i.e. prior results as a shoe is played out). No different than studying 50 previous coin flips to determine what the 51st will be. Imagine the thrill of stock charts and the voodoo of TA...."
Haha, spot on TheLooza! The Chinese plan, plan, and then plan some more, and when it all goes tits up, then there's a lot of 'air being sucked in through the teeth' and 'ceiling staring' to avoid losing face.
Here's another fine example of Chinese central planning with ZERO ability to improvise and think outside the box and ZERO flexibility which recently happened in my line of work: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3145643/Delta-plane...
Common story with friends who fly out of HKG into & out of mainland China on a regular basis. Chinese ATC can, and do refuse weather deviations, probably due to the sensitive nature of many military bases just off route. Fly through the cell or be arrested after landing. If your day isn't going so well there is always the possibility being intercepted or even shot down. Morons
Didn't you know that baccarat has been solved?
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/20122451-mr-wan/3163345-expect-new-macau-way-baccarat-solution-play-chinese-baccarat-good-impact-czr-lvs-mgm-wynn
Better to play at baccarat in Las Vegas then gamble at stock market in Shanghai.
TheLooza, How many Chinese can actually offer to gamble in Macau? The Chinese actually save much more than they gamble. Their bank deposits is about $21 trillion currently, about 3x the value of Chinese stock market (currently at about $7 trillion). In contrast, the value of the U.S. stock market, currently at about $23 trillion, is about 2x of the U.S. bank deposit ($11-12 trillion).
Speaking of betting... If I had to place a $100 bet on a Chinese speculator vs a Wall St or Jewish player, I'd bet on the latter every fucking time. And get rich in the process.
Remember, it's not Over till it's Over. Or... There's Hope, and then there's Reality.
The only beneficiary of all this bullshit I see are treasuries and war actually.
The dollar looks good all of a sudden actually...but that really isn't an "investment" because it's already the global reserve.
In that sense gold and silver look fantastic actually..."if you're buying in dollars."
Even better though is the Treasury Department.
Unlike the Fed the Treasury in fact DOES have a printing press..."offer dollars/buy all the gold in the world" would appear...
The SSE chart for today is unique. How do you open 8% up (when other asian shares and dow futures are down 2%), hold that open for 15 minutes, then fall off a cliff? The only way is to meet ALL sell orders with government buy orders, then run out of funds for the scheme, at which point all investors run for the exit. The government sees this and ups the limit for buying....rinse and repeat.
I'm not drawing any conclusions about China's economy. All I know is that chart means their government is worried about something.
"Everyone gets their news from one source."
Bubble blowers dream come true.
Seems a little late to panic now ...
Have a look at the ratio of GDP to stimulus injection in 2008-2009 between the US and China, and you'll see that China stimulated far more than the US did, they were more worried about a collapse unraveling everything.
Well they tried that approach, and got gigantic debt bubble growth, the fastest in all human history, hence the 8-10% 'growth', but powered by debt growth (and rather shitty goods being exported since).
And the stimulus 'growth' returns now, per Chinese fiat unit spent, is declining sharply, because the general rise in too much debt means aggregate demand falls, and just at the point that Beijing needs domestic consumption to power the economy on its own steam.
They blew it ... too much cowbell.
For if Europe goes seriously recessionary and all bank-crisis like, which it will, and credit tightens to a death grip, which it must, and the US follows in sympathy, then China's factories and markets take another huge hit, and the ability to push that string further is evaporating. And China's economic 'credibility' (for want of a better word) is not what is was in 2008, when it was seen as nascent CHINDIA super-panda.
And their proposal to replace USD with Chinese fiat is getting shot to pieces daily, by that debt overload, so they don't have room to print either.
I guess they can always try mark-to-make-believe and see if anyone will respect their 'assets' and Renminbi in the morning.
Let's compare China and the U.S., total value of stock market: China $7.1 trillion and dropping (70% of GDP at most), the U.S. is $23 trillion, about 140% of GDP; bank deposits: China $21 trillion, US 11-12 trillion, Derivatives: China 0, the U.S. $30 trillion - draw your own conclusion
"Print me a trillion yuan and I'll buy some US equities with that" actually...
CONCLUSION:
Paper is paper ... it will not be honored.
"Debts that can not be re-payed, will not be re-payed" - MISH
So where's the liability?
It's not real.
It is, and always has been, an open standing implicit default.
As always it's the real-economy that will matter, in both countries.
A real economy is built on real-resources, not fake 'assets'.
All the rest is the avoidance of that real economy, and the damaging of that real economy, by banking leaches, and govt leaches, working in concert, to concoct a framework of laws over time, that will screw the real economy, and replace it with a giant Ponzi scheme.
And call it 'growth', of a sound 'market', in a strong 'economy'.
Great points, but I've personally seen many productive farms and factories in China. Ultimately, this will allow them to weather a global banking crisis better than many EU countries (or the USA). Many mouths to feed, but you cannot deny the momentum if you spend a significant amount of time there.
The SSE went up 250% in 18 months, so I see this more as a stock market phenomenon than an economic one. However, recent events in Europe make this a very bad time to have a market crash...hence the government reaction and today's chart. From a techincal perspective, it does not suggest a calm or stable market in the near future.
Correct, the momentum is undeniable, it will not go away, because people are doing it, of necessity, but that part is their real economy.
I pointed out a couple of days ago that iron ore from Aust is still being exported faster than ever, but as in 2008's and 2009's, 9-month 24% global trade slowdown, the slowing showed up in the next quarters, as credit easy-money supply froze up.
i.e. we have all been using credit to buy real-resources, for our real economies, and the debt explosion it caused, and its level, is causing that credit flow to freeze, as defaults set in.
The trade slows because people providing the resources can't get paid by that credit, as before, so the real economies also begin to freeze up activity.
Somehow they're going to have to unfreeze that real economy, and real-resources flow and trade flow, via unfreezing the credit flow ... and that is the debt and credibility problem Beijing's facing.
Unmanageable debt and resulting shitty currency, worries trade partners, providing real-resources.
If your export products are also on the nose, due to poor quality and low reputation, you now have a doubly insoluble persistent credibility problem.
"but I've personally seen many productive farms and factories in China."
good grief... seriously? China is a net importer of food stuffs... compare that to the US whose grain exports alone feed a good portion of the world in addition to the domestic market for over 319m people...
the Chinese would kill for US farm techniques and associated yields... hell, you can't go a state fair in US fly-over country anymore without running into a bunch of Chinese guys looking everything over and taking notes... it's become a bit of a running joke... "the Japanese bring cameras, the Chinese bring notepads", I've seen this first hand... their population count is a two-edged sword, great for competitive labor costs but at the end of the day you gotta feed 'em...
when are people going to learn that the US handles the world's reserve currency because it has the _resources to back it up_? when? it's the biggest blind spot on this board for the vast majority of posters I see here...
Talk for yourself . They hardly feed peopel in asia . Yes chian imports aggricultural products but not India dipshit .
My professor buddy thinks we are already in WW3 except right now the Generals are CEOs at the banks, etc.
He is ptretty astute, a VMI grad. "Of course, LC, it's financial now...it could go hot."
I told him my thought was to smack the CNY so as to keep them out of the SDR this fall.
Meh, everyone who was going to profit off all this crap has already bought real estate in Vancouver.
there are millions of underwater "investors" with 22% margin interest rates ... the shit's not gonna hold.
And when the 'collection agency' comes knocking you better have the coin in cash or in kind.
No touchy feelie shit like in the West. And that's why this will keep unwinding at speed.
Can't default to dollars cuz there aren't any right now....
Commodities have been annihilated...Chinese coal and steel companies going belly up everywhere
Not gonna buy ruble denominated anything and your crazy traders keep going hog wild for Yen which has been getting KILLED woe these many years....
That sounds like another trillion in treasuries on tap to me.
I sure hope Wall Street is massively short that instrument as they always are...
Interestingly CBO missed the deficet number by 30 BILLION (too high) meaning treasury issuance is WAY down...
Though maybe not for much longer if all you war mongers here get your way...
Just speculation of course...
If the sanctions were not in place I would stock up on Rubles; I was doing it before the sanctions went in place. Physical rubles. In my safe behind the NASCAR poster.
Good time to go Long on Chinese made Nail-Guns.
If rainbows appeared after the rain, wouldn't they be called afterrainbows?
afterrainpassesrainbow
It's still raining where the rainbow is
It's still raining where the rainbow is...
And depending on your perspective, it's actually completely circular.
And the promise of the rainbow is that the world will not be destroyed by water again, but will dissolve with fervent heat.
Beat the rush and get your Al Gore issued co2 credits now.
gold fell during asian session
It sure did not fell from a tree.
Oh you meant the rigged paper US$ price. Well the US$ is likely to get stronger with the shit happening in the EU and China. Make sure you have physical before the game implodes though.
Beat up on me if you wish, but gold down is to be expected.
Bank problems mean collateral calls, means gold dumping.
We haven't seen gold lows yet.
Best time to buy when it's down. Last time in about 2008 when gold plunged to $780/oz my Dad bought ALOT....never regretted it. he did sell some at $1600 but is way ahead of the game still. I have not talked to him but if it gets to near $1000/oz I bet he'll buy alot more.
Why?
Because he's expecting another huge QE by USA and China and the EU. That means lots and lots of liquidity and inflation...again. I think he's right. Politicans and bankers cannot stand to their RE and portfolios drop.
$1000 not a bad time to start nibbling. I expect we will see $800 and $12 for silver. But I don't think it will be printing necessarily that drives a rebound. Loss of faith in goobermints, wars, and rumors of wars imho, will do it.
It may be difficult to source fizz at that point. I have already bought some Au, Ag and Pt.
I am looking at Rhodium, it is way off.
yep, assets with value get dumped to cover calls on assets whose value has dropped to practically nothing... good money chasing bad down a hole... that's when you step in and buy from the distressed, it's a market play as old as time...
shhh...basing, short squeeze otw.
The Tribes banks must get your attention off one of their own which happens to be the ECB at this point. Have to make sure you blame either a brown or yellow for this market turmoil.
Sure looks like an ugly open...
Hope you clowns are LONG TREASURIES.
Or vix calls.
Everything is a Jewish plot to you guys.
Please explain how the ECB is responsible for the Chinese stock market dive.
I'd be interested to know.
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
They have a gangrenous leg and toxic shock and are appealing to rainbows and pots of gold at the end of them!?
hahahah! ... ... bring on the dancing pandas!
The Audacity of Hope!
The Chinese market is ridiculously overinflated. The air needs to be let out. Thee is no painless way to do it. Of course, any return to healthy levels will be painted by China-bashers as a huge disaster.
I feel compelled to state the fact that this system is 100% controlled by corrupt bankers, governments and other lies or SATAN by any other name. Fuck them, crash it down because until it is gone nothing good can exist.
"Rainbows always appear after rains,"
Mmmk. I'm sure unicorns and skittles are also at the end of those rainbows.
And the relevance of this statment to a still over-leveraged stock casino (sorry, market) and economy is?
No idea. I thought rainbows had something to do with gay pride.
It's also fortunate that it never rains at night in China or there might be a problem.
It might be better put:
It must rain before every rainbow.
Not every rain will bring a rainbow.
Sell! Sell! Sell!
If the Chinese stock market goes down another 20%, the total value of the stock market drops another $1.4 trillion from $7.1 trillion to $5.7 trillion, then the stock market will still be at the level of Jan. 2015 - it's not that big a deal
Question:
What percentage of the market participants got into the game post Jan 2015?
How much debt was incurred to drive the market up since January? That still has to be repayed. That is a big deal.
"I'm now waiting for the market to rebound so that I can get out."
In other words, he will end up selling at the bottom.
+100......the VERY bottom
Qinglong very long now.
BEIJING (Reuters) - Dismayed by the millions of unsold homes in China's troubled real estate market, the Chinese government is taking matters into its own hands: by buying some properties and turning them into public housing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zeroing-empty-homes-china-throws-developer...
This doesn't change the supply, or demand. Only who gets the houses.
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-arrests-man-for-suicide...
Well, there WAS this...
http://shanghaiist.com/2015/07/02/woman_jumped_to_death_inside_shangh.php
Hasn't everyone figured out that these plunge protection schemes across the globe are set up solely to let the big banks exit gracefully from their positions? Not even big banks can time every top (or bottom) - so now that there is a decent drop in China the big banks want to cash out their profits. But they can't just dump into a declining market. Hence the government and central banks step in to buy, the big banks dump, the banksters get their bonuses, and the government workers get high paying guaranteed jobs when they leave the government.
DAX future off 3.4% is only 24 points above the opening low. Merkel, Draghi and Lagarde may soon be doing the twist.
No, the one in the wind:
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
This house of cards has a typhoon heading for it
Nubes. Don't buy shares. Tell your largest banks to sell puts and promise to make that whole. That way you don't have a direct monetization. The fed has been doing it for decades.
Check out AUD/USD
Just been down to 0.745 level, fighting to get back above 0.75
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD
Investor sentiment has turned from 'I'm going to make a fortune on the Chinese market with leverage.' To ' If only the market could rally enough for me to get my capital back.'
Interventions by PBOC just make the situation look even more desperate in Chinese eyes. Every rally will automatically be sold into. The market has a long way to go down yet.
All these idiots bought on margin?
You only do that if you are "in the club."
Or maybe if you really really know the markets.
I gather it is the margin debt the government is so worried about. It has more than doubled since the beginning of the year, now as much as $US645 billion.
It's officially around 9%, but unoffically closer to 20%. This compares to about 1-2% for the US, Japan and Taiwan.
Scary shit! No wonder the government is trying to stop the drop.
There's still the "return to normal" to come.
http://portfoliolive.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/...