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Europe's Spiralling Game Of Chicken - Politics Always Trumps Economics
Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.
– Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924)
In 1914, Europe had arrived at a point in which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future.
– Sir Edward Grey (1862 – 1933)
Last week’s email, “1914 is the New Black”, was the most widely read Epsilon Theory note to date, and given the weekend ’s events it bears repeating, as the echoes of 1914 are growing louder and louder. We are, I think, likely embarked on the death spiral phase of a game of Chicken, just as in the summer of 1914. The stakes are, for now at least, not nearly as cataclysmic today as they were a century ago, but the social and political dynamics are eerily alike.
I’m often asked how to get a better take on a historical event like the lead-up to World War I, and the answer is that there’s no substitute for immersing yourself in what people were actually saying and writing at the time the events transpired. If you’re lucky, perhaps you’ll pick a period that also attracted the attention of a gifted historian like a Robert Caro or a David McCullough. Second best, I’ve found, is to find a gifted editor or anthologist to smooth the path a bit. One such anthologist is Peter Vansittart, who collected a wide range of original texts in his classic books, “Voices: 1870 – 1914” and “Voices from the Great War”. I’ve taken some of those texts and appended them below. They speak for themselves, I hope, to illustrate the defining characteristic of a spiraling game of Chicken – all sides begin to speak in terms of “having no choice” but to take aggressive actions to defend their own interests.
Before the quotes, though, three other historical observations:
- The Austrian ultimatum to Serbia – long seen as the proximate cause of World War I – was accepted by the Serbian government almost in its entirety. Unfortunately, that “almost” part made all the difference. An important anecdote to remember the next time someone calls your attention to Tsipras’s acceptance of 90% of the Eurogroup reform ultimatum.
- Anti-establishment voters are always underrepresented in establishment polls. Noted segregationist and Alabama governor George Wallace won the 1972 Democratic Party primary in Michigan despite showing third in polls. Daniel Ortega and his Sandinista regime lost the 1990 Nicaraguan election by 10 percentage points to Violeta Chamorro despite leading by more than 10 points in every pre-election poll. The Syriza NO landslide was no surprise here, and this is an important phenomenon to keep in mind when you start to see opinion polls from Italy and France published over the next few days.
- Politics always trumps economics. My favorite 1914 quote in this regard is from Lord Cunliffe, governor of the Bank of England from 1913 – 1918, who famously declared that war was impossible because “The Germans haven’t the credits.” So what if Greek banks run out of euros? The Greek government will make their own, or maybe issue California-style IOUs and dare the Eurogroup to boot them out of the currency. If you think that an ECB squeeze can put this political genie back in the bottle, you’re making the same classic error as Walter Cunliffe did.
And now the quotes.
I held a council at 10:45 to declare war with Germany. It is a terrible catastrophe but it is not our fault. An enormous crowd collected outside the palace; we went on the balcony both before and after dinner. When they learned that war had been declared, the excitement increased and May and I with David went on to the balcony; the cheering was terrific.
– King George V (1865 – 1936)
England alone carries the responsibility for peace or war, no longer us.
– Kaiser Wilhelm II (1859 – 1941)
In this most serious moment I appeal to you to help me. An ignoble war has been declared to a weak country. The indignation in Russia shared fully by me is enormous. I foresee that very soon I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure brought upon me and be forced to take extreme measures which will lead to war. To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war, I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can to stop your allies from going too far. -- Nicky
– Tsar “Nicky” Nicholas II (1868 – 1918) in a letter to his cousin, Kaiser “Willy” Wilhelm II
Now Tsarism has attacked Germany, now we have no choice, now there is no looking back.
– Kurt Eisner (1867 – 1919)
Necessity knows no law; we must hack our way through.
– Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg (1856 – 1921) in a speech to German Reichstag
The few neutral states are not sympathetic toward us. Germany has not a friend in the world, she stands utterly alone and has only herself to depend on. … How different it all was a few weeks ago, when we launched so brilliant a campaign – now a bitter disillusionment is setting in. And how much we shall have to pay for all that is being destroyed!
– Helmuth von Moltke the Younger (1848 – 1916) in a letter to his wife
In this war it is a question … of German civilization against barbarous Slavdom.
– Helmuth von Moltke the Younger (1848 – 1916)
The year 1914 in America seemed the crest of a wave of passionate idealism among young people, and of passionate selfishness among middle-aged people.
– John Cowper Powys (1872 – 1963)
July 25: Unbelievably large crowds are waiting outside the newspaper offices. News arrives in the evening that Serbia is rejecting the ultimatum. General excitement and enthusiasm, and all eyes turn towards Russia – is she going to support Serbia? The days pass from 25 to 31 July. Incredibly exciting; the whole world is agog to see whether Germany is now going to mobilize.
July 31: Try as I may I simply can’t convey the splendid spirit and wild enthusiasm that has come over us all. We feel we’ve been attacked, and the idea that we have to defend ourselves gives us unbelievable strength … You still can’t imagine what it’s going to be like. Is it all real, or just a dream?
– diary of Herbert Sulzbach, “With the German Guns” (1935)
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I can't imagine modern Europe going to war within its borders. I simply can't believe it.
I do often wonder what would have happened if Germany won the war.
Breaking News: Troika shootout erupts in Brussels.
Carnage "for a few dollars more".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-ptpERFVeY
Strap 'em up boys...
Religious authority always trumps financial/economic power, which in turn always trumps political influence; political trumps military force.
I can't imagine modern Europe going to war within its borders. I simply can't believe it.
It will if it continues to allow Washington to push it to try to "Isolate" Russia and allows NATO to take provocative actions. Europe badly needs to have its own foreign policy independent of Washington, especially because a war with Russia would be fought on European soil, NOT US soil. The IMF will continue to finance Ukraine, which is broke, but not Greece so that hypocrisy is another very clear manifestation of US policy in Europe.
A European war could easily escalate the current version of WWIII (non kinetic), to all out nuclear war..
First rule of productive overcapacity: Destroy the overcapacity of the other guy, before the other guy can destroy yours.
Take that Sun Tzu!!
NATO wouldn't allow it. Also Germany does not have a force that can deploy that far without the US. But also remember war can be fought in many ways and economic is a classic method.....
The I Ching says that today, you shall know
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsDhVyZPI60
The parallel reality where America is saved by a crypto-Commie multi-cultural Messiah was...alas, unavailable tonight...
Define borders. Which war? Why was there even a war at all?
"I can't imagine modern Europe going to war within its borders. I simply can't believe it."
Think Ukraine. It's in Europe, if not in the EU.
"I do often wonder what would have happened if Germany won the war."
[Goes into a little apotropaic dance before answering]
You don't even want to think about that. I'm European. If I tell you we all secretly hate the Germans, I guess you'll understand.
Three wars! These imperialistic morons launched three wars in Europe in the space of a century! And never paid their debts!
And all because of another imperialistic fool, Napoleon, who created modern Germany... which never stopped being a headache ever since.
The Balkans War in the nineties did not happen, because Europe is peace or what. In reality only national interests exist and it is not a matter of belief. Look at rising anti federal sentiments and you understand a danger of forcing nations to live together in an unhappy marriage.
But now we have the Avengers!!!1!1!!11!!!!1!!
well.. Leverage. .Plus Speculatoin = war.. or referendums .
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/07/experts-leverage-speculation-made-ch...
Running out of others peoples money to piss away can start wars and revolutions........
All wars are Bankster Wars.....
1914 is the New Black....I didn't think the Rothschilds wrote ransom notes...oh wait*
*...forgot about the fiat and the the threat of death behind it... as history has demonstrated
I enjoy reading the history....but I find it quite a stretch to make this situation fit into the same shoebox as pre-WWI Europe. Most likely Greece will get a deal that no one likes....that will keep Greece contained (for another couple years) and require the printing of more money. To keep the Russians out of the game, the US will either give cash or promise cash behind closed doors. The Greek people will suffer higher prices and/or taxes and/or short supplies of cash until thinly veiled 'reforms' sneak in the back door. The US market may use Greece as cover to take the markets down a bit....but all they really care about is September and what the Fed will do. Greece makes good news but they aren't big enough to cause significant problems....not in comparison to the Fed. Unfortunately.....I think there remains more road to "kick the can down".
A disappointing prospect for those of us who might like to see a bit of economic revolution.
“Where there is a dead body, there the vultures will gather.” - Luke 17:37
Right you are. The ECB can create a 'special purpose vehicle' for absorbing and then 'making a market' (to which so-called assets can be marked) in defaulted Greek debt. Guess where cool ideas like this come from?
I don't know if a deal is really possible at this point. The EU has a hard red line of no debt forgiveness, and they cannot cross it. If a deal is signed that has no debt forgiveness, Greece will explode. The youth that have nothing to lose won't put up with it. Germany wants a Grexit, and Greece really has no choice. If Greece hasn't already printed up a barge load of Drachmas, they are totally incompetent.
not nearly as cataclysmic today as they were a century ago
Obviously this ingrate doesn't live in the mid east
Can't leave these important pieces of true history:
http://www.zioncrimefactory.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Jews-Financed...
Quotes: http://www.iamthewitness.com/doc/Jews.and.Communism.htm
Ben tells it like it is: http://benjaminhfreedman.blogspot.com/
Cuntries don't WIN WARS.
Only Bankcorp aided by .Gov & it's generosity with the Public Purse WIN.
Really stupid article.
Those who promoted WWI were unaware of the devastaion of the new version of total war, notwithstanding the fact that they had the example of the American civil war in their faces. I forget who it was who said that great powers should not get involved in the quarrels of small tribes, but it applies in this case. The big powers are currently watching Greece in the background, but there is no reason for them to get involved.
The Austrian ultimatum to Serbia – long seen as the proximate cause of World War I – was accepted by the Serbian government almost in its entirety
Really? This is what passes for the proximate cause of WW1?
No mention of the Berlin to Baghdad railway? No mention of Churchill, who while in the Admirality, converted English ships to oil burners?
No mention of the fears of England that Germany would create a united Eurasia, linked by overland trade routes instead of (British Controlled) shipping routes?
No mention that oil would go by rail from Basra to Germany, thus creating a “fueled” Germany. Let’s not forget that Germany was already producing goods far superior to England at this time.
No mention that Russia was on-board for the railroad, especially a rail link across the Bosporus, in exchange for a warm water port. Yet, somehow Russia was turned? The Turks were on-board too. Oh that’s right, it was fifth columnists, Bolsheviks, and their connections to Western “international” credit banking.
No mention that England was afraid of losing their rental status at the top of the Colonial system pyramid.
Oh…Isn’t the City of London an “international” banking center? Wasn’t the Bank of England a debt/ credit spreading private bank started in 1694? Who sneakily fomented creation of the bank of England by using Calvanism, Cromwell, Orange Kings, debts and other schemes… Yes, it’s our tribal in-group friends once again. Their morality is always a dual morality, what is good for us is good, and what is bad for others is good for us.
The world doesn’t need international banking credit as money. It leads to war and continual conflict. The system started as fraud, is fraud and can only have bad outputs. The Greek fiasco is more proof that international credit is fraud.
Keyne’s Bancor system was thwarted at Bretton Woods. Oh Wait. Was it international Jewry and their Communism yet again - that thwarted a sane “goods” exchange system? Yep. A bad tree will always produce bad fruit.
When one looks deep enough, it is always the same “money power” forces at work, especially beginning with the French Revolution. With the rise of the “international” into world leadership position, wars are now “world- wide” and countries are no longer sovereign. This rise of the international, now Zion, was funded through private banking “credit” usury; in effect causing laboring debtors to fund their own dispossession.
Why do economists and historians continually ignore the facts, and the giant elephant in the room? Are they willfully blind?
The proximate cause of modern war is mercantilism and rents, and predators and parasites… groups of men that want to take without earning it, and the private credit money system is opaque enough that they can get away with their schemes; the schemers wrap themselves in the cloth of morality. Wolves in sheep’s clothing are still wolves, and history remains unprepared to look past the “sheep’s clothing” and see these hidden wolves. They parade around in suits and claim moral high ground, but are no more than common thieves. Thieves who will cast the world into paroxysms of death in order to maintain their rentier position atop “international” society.
A reading list that gives it straight, the lead up to WW1:
Read the Treaty of Trianon
Read Vampire of the Continent
Most impressive post, MEFOBILLS.
I salute you.
Amen, Mefobills.
"I will make those who are of the synagogue of Satan, who claim to be Jews though they are not, but are liars--I will make them come and fall down at your feet and acknowledge that I have loved you." - Revelation 3:9
http://www.iamthewitness.com/books/Andrew.Carrington.Hitchcock/Synagogue...
Bingo!!! Even Madoff and Corzine took out their "brothers." Who needs enemies with friends like that?
Without a doubt one of the best posts I've read here at ZH.
Britain changed its ships to use oil because oil was better than coal, no matter who was in charge that fact would have been true.
The main fear that drove Britain was Germany gaining hegemony over the European continent, it was the same reason that embroiled England in the Napoleonic wars on the continent. There was one additional factor in 1914 that made the situation less stable, Britains empire, which was really the inherited Moghul Indian empire and mostly a collection of lands to provide access to it.
Keeping and securing this route to India caused Britain to be a world power, one that was a Middle east power along with being an Atlantic and Mediterranean power, without India Britain could have just gone back to being an Atlantic power, and would have been much more secure for it. Instead we spread out forces disasterously thin and almost risked ruin in the Atlantic.
So I don't see bankers as driving WW1 for profit, instead it was more fear of losses that would come about by a hostile Europe under Germany hegemony that restricts trade across the globe. WW1 was definitely a tragedy, for some reason (bad diplomacy mostly) we ended up on a side that tilted the balance of forces, rather than balancing forces and preventing war.
What would have stopped war in Europe is hard to say, Germanys growing power unsettled many in the UK and produced a naval arms race, the key was probably the Franco-German rivalry, maybe we could have stayed out of it and let France lose, although there is no guarantee that the Germans would have not gone for Hegemony at that point.
After becoming Zionist aware in the late Spring of 2014, I began to go back and think and/or look at events that I thought that I understood, or that didn't quite make sense.
WW-I was one of those events. It is now clear to myself, and many more, that WW-I was about Zion achieving a foothold in Palestine, and a protector and proxy bully in same, the British. The Zionists needed to undermine the Ottoman Turks get them out of Palestine, and then have the English invade and administer same. They also desired the English and French to control the oil rich lands of Greater Israel until such time that the Zionists were rooted sufficiently in Palestine to then exert themselves to their Lebensraum to the east--That time is now.
Zion's banksters got to line their pockets with loot, and the Zionists themselves got a beachhead in Palestine to use against the Palestinians, and eventually the rest of the world.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
Coincidentally, I just found out the other night that T. E. Lawrence, "Lawrence of Arabia," was a Zionist and controlled by one Aaron Aaronsohn out of Egypt.
Those dudes are part of a serious elite cult that IMO (and others) cannot be generalized about a singular religion or people (e.g. Judaism).
Like all Christians are not corrupt by association by religion with an elite cabal of Priest pederasts...nor can all Jews be tainted by a broad brush...and yes I note the distinction of the inculcation and promotion of Zionism...which is extensive... within Judaism (c.f. the manipulated Christian cultists...Jim Jones....Joe Biden (Christian Zionist.)..tis a freaky world they create to obscure freedom and awareness...)
Nice background here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W6DBM0RMlE
The Zionist' is an obvious trip wire to know you are knee-deep in Illuminati death-cult stooge spawn.
The rabbit hole goes deep and wide...
Revelations identified these Snakes In Suits collectively as The Great Red Dragon. If you truly understand the word "sociopath," you'll understand that these people are already dead, with no empathy nor conscience; that is, not really human. Of course, they appear to be, until you witness the actual results of their actions that never match their words.
My point was anti-collectivism.
And your point is well taken.
Deeds speak.
P.S. I + 1 your comment. Hate to think you neg'd me...but whatever...lol
Check out the vid before you vote.
You might learn something...they would hate that
"Those dudes are part of a serious elite cult that IMO (and others) cannot be generalized about a singular religion or people (e.g. Judaism)."
Just because there are other religious groups who support Zionism (eg: Christian Zionists) doesn't mean that it isn't a crypto jewish plot or that jews are not behind it pulling all the levers. Few people deny that the founder of Zionism was the jew: Herzl.
Actually Zionism was conceived and launched by Moses Hess and Cecil Rhodes as proxies for the Rothschilds.
http://www.tragedyandhope.com/history-the-last-will-of-cecil-rhodes/
Herzl was more than a little butt hurt when they told him.
At the very top the engineers are a coven of psychopathic death cultists that hide behind a myriad of religions to effect their plans. Judaism is one and a significant one as it is utilizes occultic Kabbalistic teachings...e.g. The Star of David is an occult symbol.
It is an elite group that hides within and it is not all Jews is my point. But it is where they principally hide and from where they operate.
http://vigilantcitizen.com/sinistersites/sinister-sites-israel-supreme-c...
(not a lot Judaica at the above site...I wonder why?)
Generalize is as generalize does.
this is bullshit; the 'big boys' (US, Russia) have made a deal: Syria (Assad goes--Russia's navy stays), Iran (gets to sell oil, maybe some weapons, no nukes), Ukraine (Donbass region gets home-rule, no NATO for Ukraine) ISIS (gets wacked)...et al.
Benjamin Freedman
WW1 was also about Balfour. The election of 1912 was a scheme by Banksters to usurp American Federalism. It worked. America since 1912 can easily be maneuvered with money power, and further by the parasites that pull the strings.
Read it all. Freedman has no agenda other than the truth.
http://www.jrbooksonline.com/HTML-docs/A%20Jewish%20Defector%20Warns%20America.htm
“The speaker is Mr. Benjamin Freedman, noted authority on Zionism and all of its schemes. Mr. Freedman is a former Jew, and I mean a FORMER Jew. He has fought the Communist world conspiracy tooth and nail, and stands today as a leading American patriot. We now take you to the speaker's platform to present Benjamin Freedman.”
And
“Now Germany -- not a shot had been fired on the German soil. Not an enemy soldier had crossed the border into Germany. And yet, here was Germany offering England peace terms. They offered England a negotiated peace on what the lawyers call a status quo ante basis. That means: “Let's call the war off, and let everything be as it was before the war started.”
Well, England, in the summer of 1916 was considering that. Seriously! They had no choice. It was either accepting this negotiated peace that Germany was magnanimously offering them, or going on with the war and being totally defeated.
While that was going on, the Zionists in Germany, who represented the Zionists from Eastern Europe, went to the British War Cabinet and -- I am going to be brief because this is a long story, but I have all the documents to prove any statement that I make if anyone here is curious, or doesn't believe what I'm saying is at all possible -- the Zionists in London went to the British war cabinet and they said: “Look here. You can yet win this war. You don't have to give up. You don't have to accept the negotiated peace offered to you now by Germany. You can win this war if the United States will come in as your ally.”
The United States was not in the war at that time. We were fresh; we were young; we were rich; we were powerful. They [Zionists] told England: “We will guarantee to bring the United States into the war as your ally, to fight with you on your side, if you will promise us Palestine after you win the war.”
In other words, they made this deal: “We will get the United States into this war as your ally. The price you must pay us is Palestine after you have won the war and defeated Germany, Austria-Hungary, andTurkey.”
Now England had as much right to promise Palestine to anybody, as the United States would have to promise Japan to Ireland for any reason whatsoever. It's absolutely absurd that Great Britain -- that never had any connection or any interest or any right in what is known as Palestine -- should offer it as coin of the realm to pay the Zionists for bringing the United States into the war.
However, they made that promise, in October of 1916. October, nineteen hundred and sixteen. And shortly after that -- I don't know how many here remember it -- the United States, which was almost totally pro-German -- totally pro-German -- because the newspapers here were controlled by Jews, the bankers were Jews, all the media of mass communications in this country were controlled by Jews, and they were pro-German because their people, in the majority of cases came from Germany, and they wanted to see Germany lick the Czar.”
I see
It is all a Zionist plot
I mean everything
Rid the world of Israel and there will be world peace.
Joke, right?
Illuminism:
Where Nazism and Zionism both serve the same purpose.
City of London would be a good start, but Israel is a nasty little problem in their own right.
Amen
Few ever ask what sort of financial sociopaths financed these sociopaths to make war. All wars have to be financed FIRST!
Cabala and Talmud have indurated rent-seeking to practice. These thought constructs are superiority means, which in turn are psychological cover...the proverbial sheeps clothing, allowing the wolf to take rents.
Not all Jews are rent-seekers and parasties. Many are honest laboring individuals who cannot understand anti-semitism. This sort of bewildered, why?? is bleeted from Jewish sheeple who are unaware of the nefarious behavior of their leaders and unware of their "obscured" history.
After the Temple was destroyed, Levite Priesthood blood lines were also destroyed. A new religion, Judaism became codified, especially the "oral tradition" of the Pharisees became written and indurated into the Talmud. The Talmud in turn is Cabala and further it has roots to Zohar. Judaism is not Israel. Zion is not ordained by God, it is ordained by Evil men with an agenda.
Nowhere in Herzyl's ravings does he admit sanction from God.
Here is a time line for Zionism, not perfect but a good sketch. And Christian Zionists should take heed, they are not in alignment with the Spirit of Christ. The Scofield Bible especially is yet another Jewish money power manipulation.
Showdown in Jerusalem:
http://www.eaec.org/newsletters/2008/vol_8/showdown-in-jerusalem-digest.htm
oh brother
no wonder so many folks here are screwed up
I am for Israel, not a Jew.
Your logic is a bit twisted.
Zionists that you speak of should not be confused with Israel
They are Satanists, you know, kind of like Obama, Mao, maybe Putin
Anyway, there are a bunch of them of every stripe, nationality and religeous background.
dsty,
Are you not paying attention? Rent seeking is a human characteristic. But, when it is CODIFED and INDURATED into practice , that is very bad joo joo. Then it is turbocharged with usury out of banking, then it DOES manifest as evil. Money should not be a root of evil, but instead a tool that people use for trade.
Man's dual nature should not have his evil side nourished. The more beneficient "kind" side should be nourished. Man is already weak, and when there are in-groups of people determined to lie, cheat, steal, use double standards, use force, or whatever to push their in group pathology, then it is a verious serious problem.
Guilty as charged. Jadaism is a rent seeking scheme. It cannot be defended under any sort of moral pretext.
In my opinion, the Jewish problem supercedes the "Islam" problem. Modern western history cannot be understood without understanding Judaism and banking.
von Moltke the Younger: "Germany has not a friend in the world, she stands utterly alone and has only herself to depend on."
That's interesting if not darned weird.
By the time Hitler came to power in 1933, Germany became known as "The Fatherland."
Did it have a sex change during the inter-war years?
In 1914, Austria (pushed by Germany) gave Serbia an ultimatum they could not accept. In 1999 NATO did that again and bombed Serbia to pieces when they refused.
NATO simply bombed Serbia in '99 without all the declarations and ultimatums. Some American stealth aircraft had close encounters with the ground and ended up as war trophies. Many Serbian inflatable tanks, log cannons, and decoy targets got blown up. The Chinese embassy in Belgrade got some free JDAM remodeling as well.
All bets are off with NATO roaming the globe, acting as a hammer in search of a nail.
Nothing new.
Humans are still a failed experiment.
Since Stonage nothing changed - still greed and ignorance are ruling this planet.
So good hope these dumb humans are soon going to destroy themselfs.
Never seen so much stupidity in such a short time frame.
Wheels are running faster and faster ...
until they finally will fall off.