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Goldman Sounds The Siren: "Nothing But Risk Off: We Have Seen Zero Attempts To Buy The Dip"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just out from the sales and trading office at the central-banker incubator at 200 West:

Bottom line: our early flow has been entirely one way: risk-off. Starting to get more much quiet now but have seen zero attempts to buy the dip or fade this move. Quick observations:

  1. Flow has been nothing but risk off to start - buyer of S&P downside, VIX upside, large selling in financials (mostly long sales) and better for sale in futures. All the options flow is very short-dated.
  2. If anything, the Street's gamma positioning should exacerbate the risk-off. We think dealers are short S&P strikes below 2050 and short VIX strikes above 20.
  3. SPX broke the 200-day DMA...currently 7 handles below it.

* * *

So... buy now?

 

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Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:17 | 6280367 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

LMFAO!!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:19 | 6280372 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

They obviously have intentionally excluded the physical metals markets.  So ya, LMFAO.

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:23 | 6280393 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

... and the other 7 Goldman tentacles are probably quietly wrapping around and sucking in everything that's not nailed to the floor.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:24 | 6280410 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...but have seen zero attempts to buy the dip...

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:35 | 6280463 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What they mean is the PPT has yet to buy ENOUGH to mask the risk-off trade.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:50 | 6280545 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

What they mean is that they are net short so now it is OK to come out with a public declaration to sell everything.

Goldman and the other too big to not all be behind bars banksters never issue public sell everything messages unless they stand to make money from the decline.  Those who sold too early will likely be happy they did soon enough.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:09 | 6280618 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

What they did was bottom tic the drop. The dip was sure bought when the 50 week line was crossed. Straight up since then. No worries, the the bottom will fall out again.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:30 | 6280437 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Since when the Squid is honest lol

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:39 | 6280479 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The sheep are getting restless, better drag Bullard out of the basement to explain how shiny it actually is......

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:33 | 6280413 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

we might have been a little too aggressive and perhaps killed off all the muppets, he added regretfully.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:40 | 6280486 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

But muppet stew is so delicious!!!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:18 | 6280370 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Read in reverse: Squid is buying.  

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:18 | 6280377 franzpick
franzpick's picture

BS. GS is suiting up right now for a varsity knife-catch game just a little lower.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:19 | 6280380 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

That is definitely time to BTFD. Every dip, every time.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:21 | 6280388 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

I think you might be right, but I'm not doing it--too much big ugliness in motion right now.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:31 | 6280442 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Wind out of sails.  Beware the "becalmed".  Looks placid but it isn't  Especially in Aegean and Adriatic Seas!  Seize!!

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:20 | 6280384 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

BLASPHEMY!

Sister Janet O'Yellen, Patron Saint of Printing

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:21 | 6280386 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So, it's time to buy the dip again?  Thanks for the head's up GS.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:57 | 6280589 Osmium
Osmium's picture

massive dip buying in progress

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:21 | 6280387 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Zero attempts?  I've seen two just today.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:11 | 6280657 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Now it's 3 attempts...so far

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:21 | 6280389 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

DO NOT GO SHORT HERE!  

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:22 | 6280397 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

In other words..... it's time to mortgage the house, go all in and lever up on margin.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:32 | 6280448 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Fuckin a and inverse 3x etf's.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 13:46 | 6281103 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

Lever the fuck up brother, this is like free money!

Except you are going to pay it all back with taxes. So it's only free for those who levered up the hardest - guess who it is?! (tip: not you)

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:22 | 6280399 CalibratedConfidence
CalibratedConfidence's picture

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:22 | 6280400 sudzee
sudzee's picture

No problem the markets will break in 3 2 1.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:23 | 6280408 Osmium
Osmium's picture

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-warns-fed-on-risks-of-hiking-too-so...

Yes, because six years of zero interest rates is not enough.  There is Yellen's out.  "The IMF told me not to rasise rates."

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:43 | 6280499 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

You're right - they won't raise rates.  Here's the problem - zero is not low enough to hold asset prices up.  The derivative unwind will be of Biblical proportions.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 13:47 | 6281110 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

What unwind? You mean WW3?

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:24 | 6280409 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You can be sure those fuckers over at G.S. have some shorts on.

CALPERS buying hand over fist.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:33 | 6280452 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

You betcha.  J. P. Morgan shorted his own bank.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:28 | 6280412 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This "market" sell off is too controlled. Shorts piling on are going to get their asses handed to them. 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:29 | 6280432 Conax
Conax's picture

 

"I want my

I want my

I want my 4th QEeeeeeeeeeeeee"

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:25 | 6280421 erikaappleihzyjtyeg
erikaappleihzyjtyeg's picture

Damn, I finally bought a dip.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:30 | 6280436 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:34 | 6280458 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I've been fooled about 27 times now.  Shame's got nothing to do with it any more.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:38 | 6280477 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Only 27? Well, what do you know? You can teach an old dog new tricks. 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:53 | 6280559 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's just this year's tally so far.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 13:48 | 6281116 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

Why are you still participating in this farce? You are not making it any better.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:34 | 6280462 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

Worse than catching a knife...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZv1C68iTfM

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:39 | 6280478 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

...have seen zero attempts to buy the dip or fade this move.

That's because there is no market and everyone knows it. Not just a buyer's strike, everyone is on strike.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:44 | 6280511 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Kev' is on pornhub for a few hours since that NYU dominatrix intern went to the Hamptons.  All will be well soon.  

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:45 | 6280519 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

PPT time.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:47 | 6280529 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Paging Janet Yellen, paging Janet Yellen. Please pick up the white courtesy phone.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:52 | 6280555 DontFollowMyAdv...
DontFollowMyAdviceImaDummy's picture

I'm waiting for that 30+% correction that'll hit after the true Apple Watch sales numbers crash what's left of equities that haven't crashed after that greco-demolition-derby finishes wasting europe.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:54 | 6280565 besnook
besnook's picture

so goldman suchs is trying to talk its book. i guess we will have to wait until they make their blood money.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 11:56 | 6280577 Shed Boy
Shed Boy's picture

I bought the dip! YAY! (in your best kermit the frog voice) EXK (Endeavour Silver) is on sale today. Load up on miners folks.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 13:51 | 6281127 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

Miners are going bust because of the PM manipulation, I'd be careful with this.

They will force them down and buy up all the miners to have even more control. After that they might let prices explode because they are now in control of production anyway.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:01 | 6280607 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The Janet works with about a 48 hour reaction time, has to put on her armored gloves to catch the knife.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:02 | 6280611 besnook
besnook's picture

goldman suchs may know a greek deal is done.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:05 | 6280622 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Step one - sound the siren

Step two - herd the sheep through the door

Step three - shut and lock the door

Step four - slaughter the sheep

Step five - repeat

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:10 | 6280648 Senor Science
Senor Science's picture

Could one of you MOTU explain what this means ?

TIA

SS

 

"We think dealers are short S&P strikes below 2050 and short VIX strikes above 20. "

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:25 | 6280711 Grouchy Marx
Grouchy Marx's picture

Dealers are betting the S&P drops below 2050 and the VIX (=volatility, or fear) rises above 20. 

IOW, they are bearish. 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:28 | 6280715 saints51
saints51's picture

Do not try and make sense of their vile mouth. 90% of the time, if I had to put a percentage on what I will say, you do the exact opposite of what Goldman Nut sacks tells the public.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:18 | 6280682 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Y'know, I think maybe The Janet has gotten caught with her knickers down, she's been fading the US markets for months, trying to prepare for a rate boost, and she had to have this Greek Burn on her radar, but the US markets came into this month already on a decline, greatest since the December debacle when the bond market made a run on Janet and the Fed and won.

Presuming the Fed now (soon) intervenes in US markets anyway, causing US markets to soak up a trillion in capital now fleeing China and Europe, who exactly wins?  Bond bulls?  OMG.

Did the Fed engineer this to punish China?  Not that anyone had to, China engineered themselves mostly into it, maybe completely.  But the fact that the PMs are *not* panicking suggests that favorite ZH meme, a Conspiracy, no big players are really panicked at all.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:31 | 6280734 saints51
saints51's picture

Big players never are panicked. Usually when big players make mistakes, they are given a huge amount of cash to walk away into the sunset.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 12:31 | 6280732 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Straight up since this came out. I'm shocked

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 13:23 | 6281010 RealistDuJour
RealistDuJour's picture

Gartzero strikes again!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 13:44 | 6281096 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

Because BTFD would give zero credibility!

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