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Is It Really Different This Time?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:47 | 6281705 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I don't know what all that means, but I think it means there's plenty of room left to go.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:48 | 6281711 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

The bull market is just now starting. So load up and keep some powder ready to buy the dips. It's the new market.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:01 | 6281787 Captain Debtcrash
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So at 1207 we had a huge spike in the S&P right after a retest of the day’s low, which allowed the stock market to recover half the losses on what was a dismal day. From that minute on the market did not look back and is closing well into the green. On that same day we have precious metals getting crushed, all this associated with no news barring blood in the streets in the Chinese markets and no changes in the Greek debacle. Counterintuitive, but it is the exact think you would want to see if you were a central bank or the government. If this doesn’t scream PPT I don’t know what does, conspiracy theory or not, but they were not created for nothing.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:55 | 6281758 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

A VERY good indicator of where a stock price is headed is the dividend actually.

If a company SLASHERS its dividend ala GENERALELECTRIC...well, let's just say I sold at 26 and am DAMN HAPPY I DID!

If on the other hand a company INCREASERS it's dividend (Boeing comes to mind)...ASSUMING SALES ALSO INCREASE (again, Boeing comes to mind) then yes...we might have a buy here.

The SUCKER is the one falling for "Mr High Yield."

At some (REITS have been crushed this year) you will be SLASHERED as "the Enterprise" can no longer afford the interest expense.

A good example is...well, Greece actually.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:49 | 6281713 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, this time there really is no spoon...

 

Things must be busy at "central command" today...  ..one hell of stick save.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:59 | 6281773 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Okay fellow CNBS'ers! Today's meme is HEALTHY CORRECTION!

Repeat after me...HEALTHY CORRECTION...

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:02 | 6281786 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Healthy correction.... healthy correction.

Hey, you know you're right.  I don't feel scared any more and an inexplicable desire to buy moar stocks!  Thanks, DV.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:51 | 6281715 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

I think the present level of the stock market is an extremely dangerous one.

But the Fed thinks that the stock market is a buy today. Or all those Kevin Henrys would not be buying today.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:15 | 6281864 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Still some suckers out there to loot, but we know TPTB are into symbolic dates.

We just don't know which ones.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:44 | 6281993 indygo55
indygo55's picture

"We just don't know which ones."

Lets start with Elul 29. 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:49 | 6281726 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

manipulation is a constant

it's the effects that are temporary

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:49 | 6281727 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

Wait - so it could go up or down? That's not what they said on CNBC.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:50 | 6281729 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

BTFD...BTFD..BTFD......the fed does.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:55 | 6281757 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

 

The Fed is saying BTDF to us..... Buy The Dips, Fuck.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:52 | 6281740 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

Hey, who's buying all that ISIS oil?

Shouldn't they have all sorts of extra cash laying around from all that savings?

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/20/its-all-for-israel/

dudes?

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:54 | 6281750 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Of course its different this time. The massive use of computers and insider trading has enabled us to jump directly into hyper-stupid. No worries though there's a giant brick wall ahead to help slow us down.....

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:56 | 6281759 madcows
madcows's picture

ok.  got it.  when the PE's are high, the returns are low.

Quick, everyone buy long term bonds at less than inflation!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:02 | 6281793 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Too late, already bought shiny....

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:03 | 6281795 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

If the Federal Reserve ITSELF is the one front running your trade then the answer is YES.

Obviously Governor Cuomo might want to "call up the Prez and ask for HIS bailout" here...that would be for the ENTIRE STATE OF NEW YORK...I might add...

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 15:58 | 6281772 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

It must be a new bull market, cuz it's negative over the last 6 months.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:08 | 6281776 aliki
aliki's picture

yes – it is different this time. “this time” will be way worse. You’ve had 7 years of everyone piling-into dividend paying stocks. once the yield on the U.S. 10-year intersects the yield on the S&P500, be somewhere else. only 2 ways that ever happens:

1. fed admits inflation has been upon us. college tuition, rent, food, toll roads, ballgames, entertainment (movies, theme parks ie. DIS), autos, furniture, retirement (ie. stocks, bonds) all at all-time highs. While gasoline has retraced some 50% off the high, we are still paying 3x what I had been the average at the pump just 10-15 years ago (ie. we are lulled into thinking $2.50 a galloon is a “deal”) only way this happen is thru an act of congress or change in president who gets 2-terms to get the hawks in to do what Volcker did since Obama has loaded up the fed with doves.

2. bond market wakes up to default risk. People think principle in the bond market is “safe & guaranteed”. once the haircuts hit & people open their statements & see that principal getting smashed, the selling will be relentless & yields will pop. Just check the high-yield market; HYG is south of 90.00 (key level). Its SCREAMING something is wrong. Can’t have a commodity as big as (since it’s the biggest) oil down 55% off the high and not have bodies floating in the water. governments may be forced to step in, but once the tax payer wakes-up & realizes they are on the hook for sovereigns being bought by central banks, that’s when they take to the streets & demand a reversal. Lets just watch and see what happens in germany should a “deal” be pushed thru, greeks continue to retire at 53, and the germans continue to pay for it.

you have 1 of the majors (ie. japan, china, u.s., germany) slip into technical recession (we all know here

the planet is not growing & that “they” are barely holding onto they’re own lies which are on the cusp of folding), followed by another & another – and people will care about paying for other countries early retirement, welfare, etc.

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:24 | 6281902 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

What he said.  (sorry for the pronoun if you identify as a trans/multi/reverse something or other identity perversion)

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:00 | 6281783 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Yes it is different this time, because it is not a free market anymore.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:04 | 6281804 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Is it really different this time?  No but its funny as fuck.

This is what happens when you have paid right fucking arse licking psychopaths, to agree with your every word and tell you just how amazing you are, all of the time, while you repeat the same mistakes, time and fucking time again which got you stupid fuckers into the hole you now find yourselves in.  The same hole which you landed us cunts in, and which we will no fucking doubt, hang you for.

History might repeat, but the interwebs gives you a laugh reading it, doesnt it NSA, GCHQ?

Tick fucking tock you idiot cunts.

;-)

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:46 | 6282002 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

The twats have the markets back with software set up to reverse down days. Casino Federal...

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:18 | 6282120 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Dont worry Winston mate, they know that we know its all a pile of bollocks.

They are shitting themselves blue.

Odious Debt mate, and that which cant be repaid, fucking wont.

Tick, Fucking, Tock.

Funny as fuck. Like a fat lass dancing at the disco, sweating the tits off.

Cunts, and they know they are...

;-)

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:19 | 6281883 rejected
rejected's picture

Step right up folks. Every player's a winner. BFTD , BTATH,,, hell just buy, buy, buy, buy, buy!

Buy that new $40,000 truck, $250,000 McMansion. $20,000 Harley. You only live once! Can't pay? Nooooo prob. Just bankrupt and start all over.

Don't be a deadbeat and live within your means, or worse an unpatriotic low life saver. To hell with saving for retirement. Obama-Care has got you covered,,,,, S p e n d!

And if your jobless,,, go to school. Take those freebie school loans and parteeee, parteeee, parteeee!

Or better, join the military and see the world,,, at least the ME. and if you come home in a Obama Bag your relatives are winners! Bunches of insurance money and best,,, your a hero!

Land of opportunity,,, that it is.

 

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:35 | 6281950 richiebaby
richiebaby's picture

I should have known the S&P would recover when I noticed there wasn't any sweat on Steve LIESman's head this morning

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:42 | 6281985 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Mr. Market has woken up, and he's going to be giving haircuts at the neckline.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 16:49 | 6282008 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The number one question is: when will the time be that the bankers of the NWO are fully prepared to use the military, DHS, FEMA and various other agencies to protect them from the citizens of the nations that they have taken over.

They would do it today if they thought they could get away with it, but they aren't. In the meantime they are having their software manipulate everything possible until the optimal time. BTFD until you see those mushroom clouds. BTFD until the banks take the pension funds. BTFD until reality forces the banksters to act. Its us against them. Its Putin and Xi and Greece and the entire world against them. It is God almighty and all of Existence that is against them and what they stand for. Notice how many of them are now warning against the singularity. Even the F'n singularity is expected to be against them. Everybody hates the NWO.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:09 | 6282068 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

It is different this time, it seems, if only because CBs have never been so determined and have never had as many confederates and avenues to manipulate the stock market. They are all in, and will stay all in, until the bitter end because any sign of weakness will cause the same collapse they are so despartely trying to avoid, the one that would never have occurred in the first place if only they wouldn't meddle in the markets. But, ultimately, I think all this is by design of the very same CBs as they want to engineer the collapse of the markets (world-wide) for an entirely different (and social) agenda. We are trully beyond all redemption, this is the road to perdition.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:52 | 6282270 HarpoonedAgainI...
HarpoonedAgainInEurope's picture

Excellent review of the trend!  It reiterates the common knowledge of the secular bear market which began in 2000.  Expected end is about 2022 where we should be in a secular bull market if and only if the debt issues on a world wide basis is resolved.  4 times since the early 1800's have we been in this same predicament, 4 times there was means to reduce the public and private debt to 175% of GDP.  Those means were in 1849 gold, 1870's austerity by increased savings, 1920's the intervention of WWII which again forced savings to occur by rationing commodities, and we are at the fourth round. Savings have diminished since the 1950's, debt has increased with the slogan "buy now, pay later".  At some point, the pipper will have to be paid and it will be very painful.  The lesson to be learned is to avoid debt that is not productive in producing income.  This chapter in the book of "Economics" has been written and read by many, and as Einstein has stated in his definition of insanity is, repeating the same process and expecting a different outcome.  The first time of the use of non productive debt can be forgiven, the second time, proof of what non productive debt can lead to, third time, insanity, fourth time, time to be committed to an institution.

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