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When Does The Chinese Carnage Stop? (In 3 Charts)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Chinese investor psychology has shifted. Period. The more the government intervenes to lift stock prices explicitly, the more local and professsional leveraged investors will use any strength to unwind their positions (profitably or unprofitably). The question is - when does this carnage stop?

 

Exhibit 1 - Based on 'fundamentals', The Shanghai Composite has a long way to go...

 

Exhibit 2 - If Dr. Copper is right about the state of the world, The Shanghai Composite won't find support until it has fallen another 60%...

 

Exhibit 3 - Judging by historical analogs, The Shanghai Composite will need to destroy all gains in the last 2 years before 'value' is once again seen...

 

But apart from that, this must be a buying opportunity, right?

 

Because if you don't buy the dip, you're a f##king idiot...

 

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Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:17 | 6282115 Waylon Bits
Waylon Bits's picture

mmmm dip!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:25 | 6282148 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Confucius say:  Dead cat bounce, lead to bodacious supply of cashew kitty.

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:34 | 6282183 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Confucious had better butter his bunghole on this baby after the dead cat bounce.... 'cause the next dive is gonna light him up

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:40 | 6282197 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It's going to be difficult for China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa to save Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal if their capital markets are in Fukushima meltdown mode.

I sense the invisible hand of the Globalist-owned market will soon find it's way up Zhou's, Yellen's and Draghi's ass.

BTFDYFI

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:46 | 6282237 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Sorry, but as long as equity prices CAN decline in China, there is some semblance of a healthy market. All you fanboys enjoy touting the “miraculous resilience” of the hollow 'merican economy while you still can.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:08 | 6282339 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Carnage?!?!

The Chinese market is back to where it was just 3 months ago in April 2015, which itself was quite a bit higher than in just the beginning of the year.

If you bought Chinese stocks in March 2015 or anytime earlier you are still sitting on profits. It was only the "speculators" who bought into an obviously over inflated market that have any loses.

Wait till the market tests the 2008 lows before calling this "carnage".

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 19:03 | 6282566 Four chan
Four chan's picture

those noobs have never seen a total freak out correction.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 19:48 | 6282727 Bull Bear Nice Pair
Bull Bear Nice Pair's picture

ZerOhead, Why do China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa have to save Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal? It doesn't make sense. 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:33 | 6282178 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

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Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:33 | 6282446 DouglasA
DouglasA's picture

Thanks for the link Lonestar

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:19 | 6282130 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Facts have not mattered in US markets since 2008.  Why should they matter in Chinese markets?

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:28 | 6282160 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Exactly. +1 Wake me up when U.S. equities catch down to credit and macro.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:55 | 6282276 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Bei Dee Dip and Oh So Lo are scratching their heads also wondering why their intervention ain't working like in merika.

 

They are probably not injecting enough directly into their market's blood stream or vital organs. After all, it took the Fed awhile to stop the plunge here awhile back when gold fell to $765/oz before it soared back up and later propped bank stocks and the entire market up big time.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:00 | 6282301 BoPeople
BoPeople's picture

They don't. I wonder when the Chinese will figure out that they got set up by the western bankers? ... not the western countries, just the western bankers.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 19:05 | 6282578 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

I wonder when any country will figure that out AND say it out loud.

'We don't hate the American people.  We hate the American bankers.  These bombs are only intended for them.'

That'll be the day.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 20:58 | 6282955 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

When? When they are told they can't be part of the SDR basket.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:22 | 6282141 SilverMoneyBags
SilverMoneyBags's picture

When does it stop? At FIBONACCI LEVELS DERPS!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:26 | 6282150 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

BFTD!?!?!  That's a new one -- but I can easily fit some choice words to the new acronym.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:32 | 6282176 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

Sooooo...how does this play in with that shiny new BRICS bank and the move to make the Yuan a reserve currency? Is the plan to start a new reserve currency that is already in full crater mode this time?

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 19:08 | 6282584 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Curious thing.  Perhaps this whole year so far was meant as a demonstration by the PBOC of their ability to manage crisis (after starting it) and all that.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:33 | 6282180 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

What is truly amazing is, as the days, weeks and months pass by does anyone doubt where Global economies are headed?

Other than those that are immersed on the inside attempting to come up with fixes and getting paid for their losing strategies.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:35 | 6282185 Maplehood
Maplehood's picture

SHCOMP 2000 looks about right.  A mere 47% below current levels

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:34 | 6282186 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

lol the crimps in the CCP won't be happy until they've Shanghaied every investor they can... bwahahahaha...

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:36 | 6282194 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

carnage stops when Goldman says buy!

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:37 | 6282201 humble_man
humble_man's picture

Government buy orders were suspected within the NYSE at the beginning of the '87 crash, and have been confirmed at various points in the '29 crash. The Chinese are very good at taking notes and replicating results, but they will have to be much more subtle to succeed in this scheme. Look no further than the first 10 minutes of the SSE open in each of the last 3 trading days, and draw your own conclusions. I posted on ZH half-way through the Monday session to warn you. 

The OXI vote forced me to put down the bass guitar and pay attention (for a week or so). I'm not a banker and have never been a broker....just an engineer who respects math. There are some troubling numbers at the moment, but I'm counting on perpetual can-kicking to allow my return to notes, chords, and melodies.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:42 | 6282217 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

Hey - at least China is taking its tour through the meat grinder.    Then again, that's because they're backwards and their economy isn't anywhere near as sophisticated - 'nuanced' one might say, as the American's, right? ------ Right...? (Please agree...)

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:02 | 6282310 BoPeople
BoPeople's picture

If by sophisticated, you mean run by financial fascist computer central control, then yes.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:55 | 6282274 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Buy The Fucking Dip.... BFTD?

 

SMFH.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 17:58 | 6282287 SilverMoneyBags
SilverMoneyBags's picture

BTFF!!! BUY THE FUCKING FIBONACCI! 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:00 | 6282298 css1971
css1971's picture

There's the "return to normal" part of he bubble to hit first so expect some BTFD.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:01 | 6282306 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

China is in free fall. PBOC is no Fed, try as it likes. Support won't prevent continuing carnage. All halting will do is delay the inevitable. This puppy. is headed straight to 2k IMO, and I put my money where my mouth is - FXP long. :-D

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 19:45 | 6282716 Bull Bear Nice Pair
Bull Bear Nice Pair's picture

One year benchmark rate is 4.85% in China, 0.25% in the U.S. The PBOC has only paid lip-service to the stock market rescue so far.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:07 | 6282325 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

It all stops once the chinese import a few of america's finest fraudulent heebs.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:19 | 6282395 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Fucking idiots were buying the dip today.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:19 | 6282396 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Fucking idiots were buying the dip today.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:19 | 6282397 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Fucking idiots were buying the dip today.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:22 | 6282409 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

WTF, I tried to post and got a notice the site was on maintenance mode. So why three posts? LOL Keep buying that dip.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:25 | 6282421 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

What a catastrophe, now it's only up 85% in the past year.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 18:54 | 6282447 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

yuanaun `nationalism = buy chinese made only...

 

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 20:03 | 6282767 novictim
novictim's picture

Sum Ting Wong, Chinese Finance Minister, says that the declines are only the resulf of a minor paper jam. Once the technitians get the presses running again, value will be restored.

 

Lastly, he noted:  The spreadsheets coming ouf of the PBOC communist party conference are quite "exciting".  "Dis is cwearwee a time to buy buy buy!  Go get 'em you inwesters!"

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 20:12 | 6282802 dag
dag's picture

ZH be careful.

Once China learns what happens on this blog, it will block you.

Drudge Report was unnoticed for years. This year, China discovered it. It is now blocked.

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 20:15 | 6282815 KashNCarry
KashNCarry's picture

Every bit of Buddha butter is better beaten butter buddy...

Tue, 07/07/2015 - 23:41 | 6283529 PatriotFirst1776
PatriotFirst1776's picture

There is an old Hollywood trick that producers would use to make themselves look like kings and go-to problem-solvers and it is this:

Create a problem, a serious problem, and a VERY serious situation that only YOU can fix (after all, the producer PRODUCED it)......and then, slowly and perfectly....save the day! Works everytime....and your legacy lives on.

Only stipulation is that you MUST have the ultimate power to "create" the false situation and the solution.... clever, eh? I've seen it used over and over.

Obama has tried to do this, but he is so-o-o-o-o darn stupid without the skill and tact to get it done correctly, he blows it (and other things, too)....all the time.

http://www.theliberist.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!