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Bill Gross Misses His Own Big Short Call - Again
Back in April, Bill Gross bet against Bill Gross — and lost.
After watching the yield on the 10-year German Bund crater to just 5bps in the wake of ECB QE, the (former) Bond King took to Twitter, calling Bunds the “short of a lifetime.”
Gross: German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime. Better than the pound in 1993. Only question is Timing / ECB QE
— Janus Capital (@JanusCapital) April 21, 2015
The problem: he didn’t follow his own advice.
Instead, Gross bet that Bunds would remain range-bound over the short-term (perhaps believing that Mario Draghi’s bazooka would be enough to prevent a dramatic sell-off), a move that by the end of March, left him short puts that had risen by as much as 11,000% in the case of one contract, and 6,000% in the case of another, according to Bloomberg.
“Gross — like the ECB — assumed the bursting of the Bund bubble would unfold over a longer period of time and in a measured fashion and so, he figured that in the interim he would take advantage of elevated premiums by selling puts. Unfortunately, his ‘short of a lifetime’ call sparked panic selling into a structurally thin market. That is, he made the right call but made the mistake of assuming the market is still to some degree efficient,” we remarked at the time.
Around six weeks after the Bund call, Gross made another prediction via the official Janus Twitter account:
Gross: German Bund "Short of a lifetime" update - it's happening. Up next - China Shenzhen index. Not just yet ...
— Janus Capital (@JanusCapital) June 3, 2015
Shortly thereafter, this happened:

For anyone wondering whether the missed Bund opportunity taught Bill Gross a thing or two about the perils of betting against Bill Gross, the answer, according to Bloomberg, is “no” (or, “Oxi” for our Greek readers). Here’s more:
Bill Gross, who recommended shorting the Chinese stock market last month before it plunged, didn’t actually do the trade.
The Shenzhen Composite Index has fallen 38 percent since the famed Janus Capital Group Inc. money manager recommended shorting it last month. Gross chose instead to wager against both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and emerging market currencies that would be affected by falling stocks in China.
“I was trying to stick to my knitting, and China wasn’t really my knitting,” he said in a telephone interview Wednesday.
On the bright side for Gross, we suppose his name will now disappear from China's short list of "hostile foreigners" suspected of conspiring to facilitate the bursting of the country's margin-fueled equity bubble.
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Grossgate
PIMPCO is Elated!
Bill...please go away.
This is why you have to act, and why I as a bitcoin skeptic, am now advocating a small allocation. I see the potential, and how it has reacted to small crises, and even though I don’t fully trust it, I would kick myself for not holding a small amount if it does take off when the big one hits. I still think there are many unanswered questions, but it you never acted based purely on some reservations you would never reap from taking risk.
You are also clueless as to the damage constant spamming does to your credibility. You could be the next big thing perhaps, but myself and many others will never know, nor aid in your ascension, as we will never once click on any links to your blog.
If you aren't willing to earn eyeballs in an honest fashion, then your thoughts likely aren't worth considering either.
What is it about people named "Bill" fucking up so much lately?
How Bill Cosby can Win his Reputation Back
linking to a blog when you post on-topic is not spamming.
That toothless old dog don't hunt no more. Give him your money to invest at your own peril.
This is the voice of experience as everyone here knows:
SOMETIMES MARKETS COME BACK TO YOU TOO.
Normally "NOT EVER."
But I was long Treasuries just MONTHS prior to Taper...and I had the "usual suspects" RUBBING IT IN MY FACE.
Only to watch as yields....
PLUNGED
then
PLUNGED AGAIN.
Buy Yen...YOU DO THAT MR MARKET GUY...
Most 70 year olds I know are sitting on the beach.
Bill Gross is still calling shots.
That's bad ass.
Bill Gross, once again proving that the only reason he was successful is because he was part of the club. Now that he's been kicked out he shows his real value.
I'm nobody's child
I'm no-oh-body's child
Bastard
Um.... How do we know Gross didn't short China. I don't trust a thing I read in the media.
Something tells me ol' Bill's gonna be alright, anyway.
another well connected kike
"only question is timing". Gee, seems like for 7 years now all you see non stop on ZH is doom and gloom and how this time the market goes down is "the big one". I guess it is all about the timing???
Cry me a river :-)