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Suddenly The "Experts" Are Dumbfounded
Over the course of the last few years one thing that has been prevalent more to my eye than nearly any other time I can recall is just how many so-called “experts” have lined up whether to be “next guest” on TV or radio. Or, they’ve taken to the pages of print, screens, or books to proclaim how their prognostications “were surely sound.” And as proof they were quick to point to the financial markets. The rationale? They must be correct in all their assumptions for – “Just look at these markets!” Well suddenly when one looks at these markets – it’s not for the reasons the “experts” wanted. Now it’s: “What in the world is going on in these markets!?”
As I write this, every market in-which one was told were trading at all time highs based on “fundamentals” isn’t just faltering. Some are in outright panic mode. China’s markets are in outright free fall. So far every attempt to stem the losses has been met with even more selling pressure. So much so, hundreds of some of their largest companies have been halted (i.e., can’t be sold) for fear of complete collapse. The PBoC as well as other proxies within their markets have pledged 10’s of BILLIONS of yuan (worth 10’s of billions U.S. for comparison) and it worked for less than 24 hours. So far the market losses are in the TRILLONS of share holder cumulative value. And as the market prepares to open once again, the fear is the worst is yet to come. Every market opening as of Monday has turned from “excitement” as the market went ever higher to – just a hold your breath and pray. Not in Years, and really, not even months – but weeks.
Greece has done the exact opposite of what all the “experts” said it would do. Now that other part of the equation that was supposedly “ring fenced in” or “priced in” seems to be anything but. Today alone the U.S. markets are showing just how vulnerable they are. Every so-called “dip” is once again being bought. However, not for the reasons of just a few months ago. Today, those dips are being bought purely out of what is known in the field as “headline risk.” This risk isn’t what it was a few years ago. Today, “headline risk” is fueled by the parasitic scourge of the markets now known as High Frequency Trading (HFT.) With these machines set to read any headline (good or bad) then launch their arsenal of front running, algorithmic stop hunt seek and destroy programs – you get a market as was shown today. A perfect headline of “Looks like we have a maybe!” and the swing from the lows to highs was so predictable it was laughable. (funny how we’re getting these as Europe’s markets close, then 30 minutes before ours do…no?)
This isn’t anything resembling “efficient markets.” This is what a pure adulterated markets look like. And it’s only the beginning in my estimation.
None of what is currently transpiring in the markets was supposed to be there. The so-called “smart crowd” said people like myself were “idiots” for questing their reasoning’s. I have only one question I guess: How’s all that “fundamental” “fairly priced” __________(fill in the blank) holding up when looking at the price action of just Monday and Tuesday?
I’ve had a few conversations over the last few days and some have been quite interesting. One of the main questions (because the topics discussed were being very highly debated as were the conversations a little heated) how was it that I have not only “stuck to my guns” as far as my premise (that premise being that most financial “experts” were full-of-it) in the face of so many telling me both privately and publicly that “I was wrong.” And it was pointed out to me (more than once) many of those “experts” are some of the biggest names in finance.
I had an answer, however the answer I gave was not as poetic as the one given by Richard Feynman that I have framed hanging in my office. I’ve pretty much made my career of doing what the so-called “experts” normally state “can’t be done.” By doing – exactly that. My career stands as my testament. However, for those who ever doubt themselves, or sometimes feel they shouldn’t voice their opinion on certain subjects when deep down they know they have a valid argument, but feel hindered to express it because someone else doing the “expressing” is considered a so-called “expert” therefore who are you to question them. I’ll leave you with Mr. Feynman’s quote on “Experts.”
“There are myths and pseudo-science all over the place. I might be quite wrong, maybe they do know all this… but I don’t think I’m wrong, you see I have the advantage of having found out how difficult it is to really know something. How careful you have to be about checking the experiments, how easy it is to make mistakes and fool yourself. I know what it means to know something. And therefore, I see how they get their information and I can’t believe that they know it. They haven’t done the work necessary. I have a great suspicion that they don’t know and that they’re intimidating people.” – Richard Feynman
(For those maybe not familiar with Dr. Feynman, just one of the historical points and contributions he’s made to science and physics, he was the man who diagnosed it was the O-rings that caused the Space Shuttle Challenger’s disaster.)
As I’ve stated so many times before, there are two types of “experts.” One who has done what they profess which gives them both the perspective, along with the ability, to express what they believe will help others. Or – like the many out there – who’ve only: read someone’s book, about what they read in someone else’s book, and now wrote a book, so that you can now buy their book – to read – what they’ve read.
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Time to reverse split the NUGT of shit again... sigh
We have reached the point where reality cannot be allowed to unfold without the shepherding of "experts."
Expert: Someone who couldn't get a real job so blogs a lot on a free blog site, calling himself an "expert."
Used in a sentence: The government is full of experts.
ex= has been
spert= drip under pressure
Famous Last Words: "God sent me here to straighten this shit out." aka "I got it under control" also "Gotcha covered" or "Haha What are you talking about?"
Which frequented concludes with "He's a conspiracy theorist"
Don't worry, be happy
Arrogance
OFF TOPIC:
The Army plans to cut 40,000 soldiers from its ranks over the next two years, a reduction that will affect all its domestic and foreign posts, USA Today learned Tuesday.
An additional 17,000 Army civilian employees would also be laid off under the plan officials intend to announce this week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102815806
Faux News outrage in 3...2...1...
Hmmm Lets see, oh yes, operation twist (market goes up), qe1 (market goes up), qe2 (market goes up), and qe3 (market goes up). qe ends (market flat lines), Fed talks about raising rates (dollar rockets higher), exports slide and makets look shaky . ......... half time........... Fed (attempts) to raise rates and unwind 4.5 trillion of qe, say over the next 4 years ?? (rubs crystal ball ) I, I, I think , yes I see polar, brown and,, grisly, fogging, hard to read (squints)
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." - Richard Feynman
Expert: Someone fifty miles from home with a briefcase.
Apparently everything is not priced in?
You can trust the markets according to those in charge. That NYSE freeze now in progress, just a technical glitch. That the Wall Street Journal and United Airlines servers and online sites also went haywire, just a coincidence. Goldfinger begs to differ.
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times, it's enemy action. (Auric Goldfinger)
They had a massive order imbalance from the very open. They couldn't contain it with HFTs and rather than reflect the true price action they pulled the plug with the "glitch"........ORDER IMBALANCE....they'll get it "solved" and then "reboot"
Now starts the ramp to green by EOD.
+++
Which, 'at the end of the day', is all that matters.
Let's get one thing straight and on the record right now; whatever is happening or will be happening, no one, and by this I mean NO ONE could have seen this coming.......
The market rewards bad behavior, period.
New shit has come to light!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbIv7W7rhx4
Bwahahahaha!
well said Sir
For all the nervous "experts" reading this -- I have a solution for you. Develop an awards program. Nominate each other for your expertise in expertism. Have some trophies made, rent a hotel conference room, and give one another awards to make yourselves feel important. It works for Hollywood. It works for the music industry. It will work for you too. Then in the future, when all your short-term trend following was proven to be folly, you can just polish your trophy and remember how smart you used to be.
why not make it interesting... guillotine for the worst?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=94UcyJnRcGU
MMT economics are on suicide watch.
+++++
Eventually the Markets will seek fair market value for all the assets out there. The Elite scumbags are running out everybody money. Maybe they should put their own collateral. Yeah, I know that will happen when freezes over.
I never trusted anyone who calls himself 'expert' or 'guru' in anything. Especially in something that there is no answer, stock markets & macros. Also the term 'experts' is relative, depending on who the fuck you stand next to. It just a labelling effect.
If anyone labels themselves as such it's a sure thing they are not. The problem is people are trained to blindly accept authority. Put on a white lab coat and watch what respect you get.
I've had the privilege to work with a few real experts in research and they never flaunted their talent. I had such an admiration and respect for their work and accomplishments. They were gracious to me though I was not at their level and listened to me when I questioned their premises. The truly talented don't need to brag and are just content who they are. It is a privilege to be around them.
Miffed
“If I tell you I'm good, probably you will say I'm boasting. But if I tell you I'm not good, you'll know I'm lying.”
? Bruce Lee
Do we know who the big sellers in China were?
Feynman said he was setup by the Air Force general who questioned him about cold "O" rings while working on his car.
A great man who is missed and needed.
A: "My crystal ball is better than yours"
B: "Forget you! I've got a Palantir Stone!"
A: "Palantir Stone? Wow, must be magical...if you live in a magical world. I read ZeroHedge"
B: "Screw Zerohedge! I've got Bloomberg, CNBS and WSJ, you weirdo."
A: "How's that working for ya? So, you and they saw this coming, right?"
B: "I'm not talking to this guy"
I miss the daily "Greece is saved" rumor. I guess they can bring that back tomorrow if we end red today.
how about, "Portugal is saved!"?
I am an expert
So, update your flash player. there's a 0day vulnerabilty going on right now.
Fuck! what a day it's been so far...
Yes. You are an expert. Because you said so. I must agree.
Thank you for an informed and articulate response. Of course, you must be an expert too.
I might not be an expert but I did stay at Paul Krugman's house last night.
AND I FUCKING KNEW JOHN KENNEDY!
Experts, huh? More like an EX-SPURT.
Sell everything and get your money out of the financial system.
G.O.T.S. --- Now.
Corzine for President!
I'm so pleased I chose to only visit the planet this time around.
The thought of actually taking part would be just too tedious.
Prime directive, good on your sir!
yeah, too bad its a quantum mechanical universe out there and you're not removing the observer from the experiment
Reminds me of something that happened to a friend of mine. Her name was Gay. She went to a business seminar where they handed her a "Hello, I am"
sticker....
When I hear the word expert, it makes me laugh. Obviously some are smarter than others. Some are more enlightened than the majority. However when the majority of experts are all saying the same thing, they're not experts!! Lets face it, when it comes down to it, WE'RE all, myself included, a bunch of fucking chimps.
By the way, I'm an expert on chimps.
Did the Chinese Hack the NYSE today? What better way to take the news away from the crash in their country. First they Hacked Zero Hedge today then the NYSE. Could the Nasdaq be next?
What would be even more intersting is what started the collapse of the Chinese market? What algos were used to create a tidal wave down trend that triggered the avalanche. Can you say.... SATAN!!!! (In my best church lady voice)
don't worry zerohedge, you can count on me. I did not know you were under attack already on so many fronts... got saddned by reading this : http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
So, buclke up, zerohedge, there is a battle to be fought... between who and who .. you can decide
Dude, thanks for the link. It's like the Official WebSite of Everything's actually like the MSM says by not referencing the MSM or the Status Quo but just treats it like everything's bat shit crazy.
Now I have somewhere to go when I'm not on the Hedge, eating chocolate ice cream or screaming at the neighbors
I found the same site while looking for news about zerohedge's disappearance from the web. A bit harsh weren't they? :)
From "rationalwiki": "Zero Hedge[1] is a batshit insane Austrian economics-based finance blog" ".. is not quite the NaturalNews of economics, but not for want of trying."
But I quite like this, "It has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions." LOL.
When you mock the experts, you fall victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...
Inconceivable!
They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.
I am an expert of spotting the experts that are full of shit. Taught by the master.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UecRfBJ2LBM
... I used to be a pert ... not anymore ...
"... they don’t know ...
they’re intimidating people.”
Of course, Richard Feynman's "suspicion" is indubitably correct. However, while he made significant contribtuions to physical science, I am not aware of anything which he did that provided better connections between phsycial science and political science, other than for the varions kinds of relatively superficial, common sense observations made by some other famous physicists, such as Albert Einstein.
The science of economics is similar to the science of warfare, because the history of economics was actually inside of the history of warfare. Therefore, financial success is based upon enforced frauds. However, people are proportionately successful to the degree that they do not admit or address those social facts. Hence, experts "know," in strangely entangled ways, that their social success depends upon intimidating people.
Human beings and civilizations operate their robberies through systems of organized lies. One of the major aspects of those systems of organized lies is that they deliberately ignore and deny the most important facts, but rather, have perfected the techniques of LYING BY OMISSION, since that is the most effective way to lie, by telling only part of the truth, which thereby misleads in ways that those misled will not be able to prove, nor even detect, unless they work hard to learn about what they were not being told.
The fundamental fallacy of economics is that it is based upon "production." However, on a superficial level, it is clear that the production of destruction controls production. Furthermore, on deeper levels, it is clear that human "production" always necessarily takes place inside of the context of living as entropic pumps of energy flows. Generally speaking, economic "experts" must be within the range of professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, who tend to enjoy proportionate social successfulness to the degree that they facilitate the established systems of enforced frauds to continue to operate, in ways that they deliberately ignore and do not discuss.
It is theoretically possible to understand both warfare and economics in more scientific ways. However, that has to embrace the historical realities that successful warfare was based upon deceits backed by destruction, while successful finance then became based upon enforcing frauds. In general, human beings have developed the most absurdly backward ways to misunderstand how they operate as general energy systems, by having perfectly inverted the way that they perceive entropy.
Meanwhile, it is extremely difficult to discern the degree to which the economic experts are dumbfounded, due to what Mark Twain was famous for pointing out, namely that the best liars believe their own lies. Economic experts had proportionately successful personal careers to the degree that they maintained attitudes of willful blindness towards the most important social facts, in order to faciliate them telling LIES BY OMISSION, because they themselves were able to deliberate ignore what they never spoke about, despite those being the most important of the social facts.
Of course, we should FOLLOW THE MONEY TO ITS SOURCE. However, the most socially successful experts have developed the best ways to NOT do that! When one follows the public "money" supply to its SOURCE, one arrives at the central social facts, that governments are enforcing frauds by privately controlled banks. In order to understand those enforced frauds, one has to look at the vicious spirals in the history of the funding of the political processes, which enabled the best organized gang of criminals, the international bankers, or the banksters, to capture control over the powers of governments, and effectively privatize those public powers. Therefore, the public powers to rob, and to kill to back up that power to rob, actually are more used to benefit the big banks, and the big corporations that have grown up around those banks, than anyone else. However, expert economists will only have successful personal careers to which they LIE BY OMISSION regarding that.
It is quite possible to go through series of intellectual scientific revolutions, in order to understand human beings and civilizations as manifestations of general energy systems. However, doing that requires facing the degree to which the biggest bullies' bullshit world views almost totally dominate everything, including the natural languages that we use, as well as the philosophy of science that we take for granted. The biggest bullies' bullshit has perfected ways of enforcing frauds, which have resulted in all of the dominate social stories becoming the most absurdly backwards that those could possibly be!
When one applies the concepts of general energy systems to human systems, one discovers that those most match the principles and methods of organized crime. The biggest forms of organized crime are governments, which are controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, which are currently the international banksters. However, inside of that context, the financial system "experts" deliberately do not know that, or deliberately do not discuss that, but rather, maintain their own kinds of extreme cognitive dissonances and willful blindness, because by doing that, then they are able to personally benefit the most from living inside of the established systems of organized lies operating robberies, and particularly benefit from the symbolic robberies done through the enforced frauds. The social successfulness of economic experts tends to be quite paradoxically based upon them deliberately not understanding that everything they are doing is actually based upon intimidating people!
they only call it political "science" because "pure bullshit" doesnt quite have the same ring
Like I am fond of saying, when it comes to predictions I have two balls and neither one of them is crystal.
QED...Love Feynman
Ruthlessly condensing this article: I'm an expert because Feynman.
Ruthlessly paraphrasing this article: Holy fucking aardvark tits.
Ruthlessly elucidating the essence of this article: I'm positioning myself to be the first in the queue of post-Armageddon experts... in which case, let me make my first expert prediction: Complete fucking nonsense like I wrote in this article ain't gonna cut it when you're in a death match for a gloriously nearly-complete piece of moldy bread with at least 3 others who are, like yourself, (life or death) all in.
Ruthlessly rating this article: Nilhistic, vapid post-modernism.