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Greek "Compromise" Proposal Leaked, And There May Be A Problem
Moments ago MarketNews reported that during today's "marathon governmental meeting" in which Greek PM Alexis Tsipras sat down with his party to hammer out and complete the "compromise" Greek proposal to be sent to the Troika before midnight, the prime minister told his ministers that he was "ready for compromises," suggesting he was willing to clash with the ultra-left part his party, Syriza.
So far so good, and perhaps indeed suggestive of a big step down. The problem emerges upon a closer read of the proposal, which is clearly not nearly "capitulatory" enough.
Recall that earlier today BofA' Chief European Economist Gilles Moec, accurately, said that only a "complete capitulation" by Tsipras would get Germany to agree to the Greek proposal.
However, as presented by MNI, the proposal is anything but: according to the draft
- The 30% discount in VAT for most islands is maintained but it excludes the so called "big" islands which get the biggest percentage of tourist reservations.
- The draft keeps the VAT for hotels to 13% but raises the Value Added Tax for the food industry to 23% which was a creditors' demand.
- The governmental commitment to freeze early retirements remains.
The biggest surprise is once again in the biggest hurdle: pensions. Recall that as we accurately predicted two weeks ago, it was the government's unwillingness to directly cut pensions that led to the IMF refusing to even negotiate the Greek proposal.
As a further reminder, this is what IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard said almost a month ago on the topic:
Why insist on pensions? Pensions and wages account for about 75% of primary spending; the other 25% have already been cut to the bone. Pension expenditures account for over 16% of GDP, and transfers from the budget to the pension system are close to 10% of GDP. We believe a reduction of pension expenditures of 1% of GDP (out of 16%) is needed, and that it can be done while protecting the poorest pensioners
Fast forward to today when MNI reports that "there are no pension cuts in the draft of the proposal."
And if recent experience is indicative, this likely means that the Troika will once again refuse to move on with the draft.
Tsirpas is said to make a roundabout compromise by boosting the pensioners' contribution to the health sector which is "raised from 4% to 6% which could be regarded as an indirect way of reducing pensions." Alas, it was the creditors' very explicit demand that pensions see direct cuts. And this is missing from the Greek proposal.
In an attempt to mollify Merkel, the draft goes on to mention that the collective bargaining agreement would be discussed within a year, compared with the government's pre-election announcements that the law would be passed imminently, and it also puts higher taxes to the shipping industry, higher incomers and gambling and highlights the need for a debt relief.
But the key hurdle remains: Germany no longer trusts Greek promises of a boost to revenues, i.e., speedier or more aggressive tax collections, and instead demands spending be slashed which by definition means that pensions have to see substantial and haircuts.
So far this is absent from the Greek proposal.
There is also the possibility that this is merely an MNI trial balloon to gauge market sentiment at what is currently contained in the draft, and judging by the market swoon in the past few minutes, it would indeed be seen as insufficient.
Which means that if Tsipras is serious and indeed hopes to reach a compromise, he will have to propose even more draconian austerity measures and spending cuts - recall that Germany made it very clear that any existing proposal would be far harsher than what was on the table when Tsipras called the referendum - in the next few hours before the midnight deadline which is fast approaching.
The biggest problem for Greece, it goes without saying, is that at this point Greece simply can not afford another turn of the proposal: by the time the Troika comes back with its alternative, which Greece then has to debate and respond to, it will be Sunday or even Monday. And by then both the local banking system, as well as Greece itself, will have crossed what Europe swears is the final, final deadline.
Unless, of course, this was Tsipras' intention all along.
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I wonder if Wimpy was Greek..
http://youtu.be/xs1kLkxOmqY
Touch pensions and it won't get through parliament.
The heart of the issue is that the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate rapidly, and that politicans on both sides are in danger of losing control of events. There has been a steep rise in internal defaults in Greece since last week, both in the public and private sector. The private sector in particular is defaulting on its debts, and nearly half of the bank loans in Greece are being classified as "non-performing". Taxes are no longer being collected, and people are hoarding whatever euros they can. And the Greek state is currently "financing" itself by... not paying its bills.
If no deal is forthcoming by Sunday, Greek society in its present state will not make it to the end of this month, and the EU will face a human tragedy within its borders. Hence the deeply cynical references to "humanitarian aid" some of the credtiors have been making.
Maybe that's what the EU wants so that it can move 'humanitarian' troops in to seize the country and keep it out fo the hands of the BRICS.
Tyler not even 24 hours ago you loudly claimed that Tsipras " has already capitulated". Now what? WTF?!
Tsipras is very clever here with the pension cuts. Since Juncker once again said that there were no demands for pension cuts, openly in fron of the entire eu parliament, he will have a problem to now demand exactly that...
I've seen fools on Pawn Stars have better negotiations.
I think i saw that episode
Taxing food and water is the evidence that a government is immoral and corrupt. No taxes on food and water whatsoever at the super market or residential property.It is a contradiction that a socialist would subsidize people on welfare so they can buy necessities that are expensive because of the taxes. But that's logical and might cause a bureaucrat to become constipated.
Tax the restaurants and commercial property... OK.
dingdingding, knew it the moment we saw the words potential "humanitarian crisis" in the headlines
amateurs , see jade helm
here we go Eirik, "If no deal is forthcoming by Sunday, Greek society in its present state will not make it to the end of this month, and the EU will face a human tragedy within its borders"..the tragedy of some banksters not getting thier vig?? remember bail outs have been for the damn debt holders..next week greece still has olives -cheese-bread and sunny beaches oh I forgot wine they still have that to. not a disaster only odious debt holders take a hair cut.
Uzo, they still have Uzo...
and Retsina of course
Thanks for insight dude......its got to be bad right about now.
ZH needs to get some more articles around the conditions on the streets of greece
Would be useful instead of just the dick swinging negotiations.
A German told me all Greeks are liars
A Greek told me all Germans are prisoners.
It seems we have a dilemma in the making!
A German prisoner lied to me about the Greek. The Greek liar actually never went to prison.
he enjoys his billions in geneva or london while the banksters' lying whore merkel wants to take all Greeks hostage
A Frog told me that anything said by Germans is no laughing matter, especially their jokes.
Wasn't his name Wellington J. Wimpy? British Isles I think.
No, here Wimpy (was the name of a large construction company) stood for We Import More Paddys Yearly. A Paddy being an Irish worker famed for their working ability on building sites.
True that, they had poor downtrodden Irish workers who could and would drink anything containing alcohol or methanol. Even the Finnish are no match in a drinking arena
Irish workers (indentured servants) built the Erie Canal by being paid in rations of whiskey and around 35 cents a day. Most would drink half their ration for breakfast and the rest at the end of the day.
I'll gladly pay you Tuesday, for a Baklava today.
Maybe it was J. Wellington Wimpy.
Tsipras has already capitulated:
At a meeting with the European “institutions” today, Tsipras is set to present what he called, in a speech before the European Parliament yesterday, “credible reforms” for a “fair and viable solution” to the crisis in Greece. By this is meant an agreement that is acceptable to the European institutions, which are demanding harsh austerity measures in return for any further bailout funds.
Even as Tsipras spoke, Syriza’s new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, dispatched a letter pledging to “immediately” impose a “comprehensive set of reforms and measures to be implemented in the areas of fiscal sustainability, financial stability, and long-term economic growth.” The letter refers to unspecified “tax reform-related measures” and “pension-related measures”—i.e., increases in regressive sales taxes and cuts in retirement benefits.
Far from acting upon the mandate that the overwhelming “no” vote gave him, Tsipras is continuing the policy of retreat and surrender that his Syriza-led government initiated from its first day in office. It is difficult to point to anything that the government is now doing that differs from what it would have done had the Greek people voted “yes” on the EU’s austerity demands.
The response of the government demonstrates that the referendum itself was called as a political maneuver, aimed at creating more favorable conditions for implementing the EU austerity program. Despite their nominal call for a “no” vote, Syriza officials had hoped that the conditions under which the referendum was held—including controls on bank withdrawals and a campaign of intimidation in the media—would produce a “yes” vote, foisting upon the Greek people responsibility for Syriza’s further capitulation to the European banks.
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/07/09/syri-j09.html
Tsipras is not stupid. He probably believes he has to be seen as a 'good guy who tried', any failure not being down to him.
He probably got his draft 'suicide' orbituary.
You have to hand it to Yanis Varoufakis, what a brilliant move. Bail out before the sh*t really hits the fan having dramatically increased his 'speaker for hire' value.
Bail out? I thought he was asked to leave...
Probably much better that way, never resign, get redundancy pay! Goodness knows what the Greek version pays.
Tzipass may not be stupid in one sense.
However his firm belief in failed socialist economics certainly is stupid.
His position is that creditors should just reduce debt owed by 1/3rd and at the same time give him additional cash in the form of more loans. Good luck with that, bozo.
The Greeks should treat him like Mussolini if he caves.
@JustObserving: if you only would observe! But instead you are just repeating like a parrot the smear campaign nonsense of evans prick-hard which in turn was sort of endorsed by tyler who keeps making new lows in his reputation (or whatever is left of that) on a daily basis.
Yea lets ave Greece just borrow and not repay it and leave the Euro and become Venezuela. Or Argentina Or Bolivia or Nicauargua Or any other stupid socialist failed hypocritcal "for the people" bunch of liars who have ever lived. F you.
"Greece, will have crossed what Europe swear is the final, final deadline" i'l belive it when I see it, at this point they have dragged it on for so long the markets might go up just so they can stop nagging about it.
Tsipras won on nonsense ideology. This same ideology will be his doom. Europe works with numbers, he works with the notion that he and his people only have rights. Even if Tsipras wakes up from his delusion, his party colleagues won´t.
This whole process is destined to fail.
Neither side is willing to come to realistic conclusions. Greece is dead-ass broke and the Greek people are going to get austerity, one way or another.
In the short to medium term, yes.
Greece is certainly broke.
That is why the concept of falling on the sword to protect pensions which cannot be funded is such nonsense.
They can negotiate some deal and take a small cut. Negotiate themselves out of a deal and get almost nothing but have to deal with inflation and economic collapse.
The point of cutting or not cutting pensions is not the point. The point is the precedent. If they can force Tsipiras to cut pensions, even one tenth of one percent, they know that a) Tsipiras will get a vote of no confidence, the government will fall and a new coalition (they are hoping is the same Goldman Sucks chosen ones) will step in to "negotiate" and b) That when they deman Spain cuts their peosions they can point to Greece and say: "See, the Greeks agreed with our demand, no you must too"
Just default on all odious debt, let the state create new drachmas, and get to work!
Greece should Exit EU on Sunday, with nationalisation-requisition of the principal banks.
Yup, and issue the Greek version of MEFO Bills or OEFA Bills, which worked like a Charm for desperate Germany in the 1930s, and turned around their economy. Read up on it.
It would be a great bit of symmetry and irony if they did this. And call the new bills FETTA* Bills. Opa!
* Financial Equivalent Temporary Tools for Assets.
p.s. "Merkel, fick dich ins Knie!"
first, if weinar republic failed, it's mainly because Hjalmar Schacht - which was CEO of central bank of Germany - create all the necessary condition to a bank panic, which in turn caused the fall of the socialist in Weinar republic.
One the "right man" in place (Heinrich Bruning), a crazy austerity policy has been applied, which throw millions of workers into unemployment, leading to the rise of the Hitler's NSDAP party.
For short, after a few years of austerity, Germany choose Hitler. Today, Greece in a similar situation made the choice of the radical left, rather than Golden dawn thugs.
I think this is a pretty wise choice.
The other question is: "Who now trusts Germany?"
Who trusts any politically driven institution, German or not?
And they just happened to "leak" the most recent stock market stick save Greece will survive bs just in time to stop the selling.
Well played assholes - well played.
No surprise there!
What we really need is some FedSpeak headlines to hit the tape...oh wait. Yellen to speak tomorrow to save weekend. BTFD today because you know old Yellen is not going to spook the only policy tool she has left (Stawks).
Tears for Souvenirs!
We were watching the Detectives . . .
Sure, fuck the pensioners so that a hedge fund manager can buy that second yacht. We don't want them doing without.
Hairdressers who retired at age 55 with full pension must not be made to take on any work now.
True, but that's NOT what ballooned their National Debt in recent years.
Don't fall for the Magician's Trick of Distraction and Action. When in doubt, line up the Usual Suspects of Banksters and follow the money trail when doing financial and accounting Forensics.
Before getting wrapped around the axle, it's vital to go back to Basics in Analysis, Diagnostics and Forensics.
p.s. If "All wars are Banker's wars", then -- given that it is the Cartel of Private Banksters creates all Debt and all Currency out of thin air -- what's that say about any National Financial Crisis and its ultimate Culprits?
I posted this the other day but I seriously wonder if nsa/cia are passing along intel on internal greek govt meetings to the gernams, ecb, imf, etc.
it's a given they're spying (& tbf always have been, not a recent debt crisis thing) - the question is what are they doing w/whatever intel they're gathering? expiring minds want to know...
There was talk of bugs in Brussel's hotel rooms and Greek gov buildings. Juncker's frustration at the end of June stemmed from different things being talked about and being written down and presented.
Yeah but if something is offered before the final final deadline, and greece hasn't had time to consider it till after the final final deadline, then it might not be final final.
Anything to boost markets. Is the Greek parliment wired for sound AND video? NSA at your service.
Dow just jumped 50 points to the upside....
yeap, here they come riding in in the last hour of trading....
hilarious.
The ever ready 2:30 melt up.
textbook bullshit....
If they decided to take the pipeline-for-debt deal from PutXi, how long would it take a carrier group to show up in the Aegean...?
Hey Wolfie Stubble, yeah you limp dick, the cripple who likes a tipple, the guy who turned down a part in Springtime for Hitler stating it wasn't a good career move; GET DOWN ON IT!
For once I agree with Victoria Nuland... F*#K the EU!
yeah but the words she left out were "the little people of"
you know damned well she's all for saving anyone who has made fraudulent gains
Final, eleventh hour, brink, last chance, last hope, deadline, over by midnight, this is it, game over, finalest final... and so headlines go and will go on. It's just like the Russian tanks invading! Russian tanks invading! Russian tanks invading!
How many times has Ukraine been invaded by Russians tanks, 40, 50 times?
What a freakshow the EU has become.
I wonder, do they realize they sound like lunatics on amphetamines?
Come on, get this Greek debt write-off and let's be done with that, so we can go back to Russian tanks invading! Russian tanks invading! Russian tanks invading!
... In my mind, I hear a Monty Python skit centred on your first sentence. Man, they could have a field day with this shit.
That cracked me up. It reminded me of a fairly well-known hollywood film called, "The Russians are Coming !"; They filmed it in Mendocino, Calif. where I was living at the time and I was an extra in the crowd scenes. Along with everybody else, basically. It was great, because we got paid something like $20 for the day and free lunch. Then one day, I got a speaking part; that was real gravy. If they recorded your speech, you know, whatever they told you to say and the camera was on you, that was a "speaking part"; and you got $45 / day; for that day; I think it was extra on top of the other $20. If you ever see that movie I'm the guy with the double-barreled shotgun in the crowd scence, where Jonathin Winters was the Deputy Sheriff, ( it was a comedy, really ); the camera zooms in on me and I get to say; "Let's kill them all, let's kill them all !!"; this was a scence where the twonspeople were deciding what to do aboiut these Russian Submarine Sailors who had stopped off there to get a spare part for their water pump, or something. They picked me because I looked like a backwoods retarded thug. The Director said I "photographed well"; and I was convincing because I didn't talk loud but was very serious. He took down my address, but I never heard from them. At that time; we were all just hippies, and the $20 / day for nothing was great stuff.
In that same crowd scene my friend, who was a Portuguese Carpenter with one wooden leg; had a bow and arrow for his "weapon"; I felt kind of bad for him. I mean, I don't think the bow and arrow was very impressive. Most people had their hunting riifles and what-not.
Greek proposal short and sweet:
FUEU
My vote is for the new final, final, finalest outcome sometime next Tuesday.
I like drachma's. Put the Trojan Horse on the 1,000,000,000 drachma bill while you're at it. That will show them.
Final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final, final.
There!!!!
.
.
F*CK GREECE.
LET GREECE SWIM OF ITS OWN VOLITION OR SINK TO HELL.
While Merkel is visiting (I believe) Bulgaria today,
a Leftist German magazine, der Spiegel,
interviewed a Mayor of a Greek town near Athens.
The mayor expressed indignation and deep resentment that,
all while Europe suggests Greece leave the Eurozone - if not the EU as well -
that countries like Bulgaria and Romania are members.
FURTHERMORE . and more to the point - the Mayor said it was ABSURD
that Europe should expect Greek pensioners
to LOWER THEIR PENSIONS to a standard of (GASP!!!) Croatia.
F*CK THIS B!TCH.
F*CK GREECE...
WITH A HOT SPIKE UP ITS A§$ (though it would probably pay extra for THAT...).
The cost of living would remain post-2009 Greek though, it wouldn't transform to Croatia cost of living.
Fuck DeutcheBank and the other asshole junk-bond investors who enabled Greece's largesse while enriching themselves.
Hm? How about we do this all over Europe? I'm pretty sure the Germans would be furious.
I expect elections and that Tsipras will campaign for a Grexit course.
Greek proposal? What Greek proposal? The French are desperate to get a deal (to stop Marine Le Pen), and with Euclid in so far over his head, the French are reduced to doing his homework for him.
I seriously doubt the Germans will be fooled. They'll laugh in Euclid's face and throw the proposal in the wastepaper basket, the ECB will cut the Greek banks loose, and it'll all be over but the shooting.
Tsipras' intention all along? As I keep saying, that was to give his girlfriend whatever she thought she wanted, no matter how obviously stupid, crazy or positively suicidal it was.
I'd rather know what Betty's intentions are. Honestly, I want to believe she'll escape with the boys and live happily ever after on what she makes on the lecture circuit playing the martyr's widow, leaving Alexis to face the music, because I want to believe she doesn't actually have a death wish. Right now, I really don't know.
She's a communist.
oh an economist!
Undoubtedly a woman and perhaps a citizen.
Now if you stop drinking the tea you might find there is no commie under your bed nor in Greece; just peope who want to breathe free air.
On the other hand there are a lot of people mad about making good in the market. Just as an example of this folly you only have to look at the Shanghai index : 52 weeks ago it was at 2000. Then it peaked to 5100+ in 11 months before falling to 3700 in the 12th !
And ALL YOU HEAR in the market is OMG its fallen from 5100 to 3700 ! All the while those same shills have forgottten that IT WENT from 2000 in July 2014...to 5100 in June 2015...FOR NO RHYME OR REASON!
Ha! Invisible Hand!
And all these dumb media commentators can talk about is : OMG the Chinese market has MELTED down by 3.5 Trillion in JUST ONE month.
Bejesus..Isn't the Invisible hand a miracle and aren't the players of the Casino suffering from memory loss?
If the market LOST 3.5 trillion in capitalization in ONE Month how much did it GAIN in the 11 previous months which made those same investors feel they were kings of the world????
Some people have shorter memories than their family jewels!
I suspect there will be a final, final, final deadline, for the 3.5 billion ECB repayment on July 20th, that will really shut the door on the whole thing.
Exciting times with a Ukraine $120m private bondcoupon due on 24th July.
please - "countries" with bankster controlled puppets at the helm will never be subjected to mark to market, why give those ukranians in the west who are totally duped any reason to hate kiev? keep the propaganda rolling...
This sounds like a case of pre-emptive leaking, by one side or the other. Somebody is afraid that the chief negotiators will agree to something awful, so that somebody leaks the latest draft to get the folks back home riled up and force the negotiators back to the table. It doesn't matter whether we are talking about the Germans or the Greeks. I suspect somebody on each team is doing it.
Now we know why Varoufakis resigned. He said he would rather cut off an arm than sign the agreement the Troika wants and he had fore knowledge of the sell out. The referendum/democracy means nothing to the Troika/Germans and gave Tsiparis/Syriza no added negotiating leverage as I thought. It is either complete capitulation to continue paying what even the IMF has ackonowledged as un repayable or exit the Euro and possible the Union. This whole stand off is being closely watched by the Imperium in Washington you can bet. So far they've let the Troika handle it. So far Greece has tried to work a deal without wanting to play the default/Drachma card as a key sign of last stage negotiations. This is when the Washington Consensus will step in with some sort of final word, beyond which lies undiscovered territories. The Greek people will still have their say also.
But, but, but..... the Greek people voted for sunshine and rainbows. They can keep everything and get another bailout without conditions. And when that bailout fails, they'll get another and another and so on. The problem is not Greece at this point, it's Germany for contuing to give them more money. They want to be "heroic", them let them stand on their own two feet or go beg Russia.
The ranger isn't going to like this Yogi
The ranger isn't going to like this Yogi
All we are saying, is give Greece a chance.
All we are saying, is give Greece a chance.
Poor Troika. It has been tough few months.
I do not trust the German government. Especially the government of the past 10+ years.
Actually there's lots of irritating stuff going on, with NSA, some rightwing terrorists issue, the decisions around TTIP/TISA and so on. That country is (also) fucked up.
The French are playing ball according to the diktat from the boss while the Germans are soon to be told (if not already) its time to enjoy their retirement
They don’t want to cut pensions because when their time comes, becomming 45 or so, they want to retire themselves with a lavish pension so it would be stupid to cut their own future pension.
They don't have a separate social security system. Old people just have pensions. They aren't doing well during the aiusterity years. They are the ones eating out of trash cans. The people in Greece who are doing well haven't been touched yet, even by the so-called leftist government.
"The average Greek pension is 833 euros a month. That's down from 1,350 euros in 2009, according INE-GSEE, the institute of the country's largest labour union. Moreover, 45 percent of pensioners receive monthly payments below the poverty line of 665 euros, the government says. With more than a quarter of Greek workers jobless, many rely on parents and grandparents for financial support."
Try living on and supporting your unemployed kids on 833 Euro/month.
I make that at $920 US/month.
Or the 45% below poverty line pensions that is about $735/month. With this VAT tax eating into everything you buy....give it a go. These are not luxury pensions.
What could you rent in NYC for $735/month? A broom closet? Hopefully one located near a dumpster so you can dine out.
What could you rent in NYC for $735/month? A broom closet?
how about a cardboard box in a seedy non-prime location ?
How fucking stupid are the Greek people to let banks own 13% to 23% of each person (actually more from lost opportunity). I suppose giving 23% of yourself to a bank does not make you a slave completely. Perhaps just part slave.
If Greece people go along with this then the writing is on the wall for all other failed socialist programs world wide. The majority are too stupid to yank the band-aid off fast, rather slow and painfull.
Geez--and in the US the .1% only own both balls of the 99.9%
just too much going on to make any sense now except for those involved and zerohedge.
Tsirpaz and Syrza didn't get it yet.
They need a lesson from the Schaeuble and EU types.
He will learn it hard way.
Or he goes away.
But either the Greeks will break him, or the bankers' dogs in Brusseles will bite him to death.
Time for some Mikis Theodorakis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsAiLQ6fcVo
Time for Mr. Panos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvl9N9GdraQ
So, have we FINALLY arrived at Europe's "Final Countdown?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
For ever and ever
it aint over until the fat man sings
https://ixquick-proxy.com/do/show_picture.pl?l=english&rais=https%3A%2F%...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfdkQGQ5xpA
Why insistence on pensions? Because whichever government does pension cuts in Greece, loses power, it's that simple. It's a surefire way to destroy the Syriza government. Apart from the phony pensions, which have apparently been addressed by previous governments, the population in Greece is old, if you cut the elders pensions then its game over.
Ms Lagarde, I would like a 200k loan. Will I pay you back? No, but here take my children as collateral.
Predators want to cut 1% of GDP off of pensions,
but how much is cut from NATO/military spending
which I believe is around 2% of GDP and is totally
unnecessary nonsense for Greece except to support
USAIPAC proxy army ???
Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph Stiglitz hour long discussion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY3Qxm6BoUI