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Why Janet Is Lost: Her Favorite Charts Show 'JOLTing' Disconnects
Submitted by Lee Adler via The Wall Street Examiner,
Janet Yellen’s reputed favorite jobs measure, the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) reported blockbuster record job openings in May. But look beneath the headlines and you will see just how distorted and maladjusted the US job market is.
Wall Street economic shills and Fed propagandists have recently been claiming that a tightening job market is driving faster wage growth. With apologies to Elvis, we’ve already established that that was just a lie. The rising wage story doesn’t hunt. It ain’t nothin’ but a hound dog.
The jobs that employers are offering are increasingly not jobs that workers can or will fill. Workers either do not have the needed skills, or they refuse to work for the slave wages many US employers are offering. Whatever the cause, the imbalances are clear and they are growing, with no rectification of the problem in sight.
These four charts illustrate.
Job openings have soared to record highs, beyond even the housing bubble peak as the massive and growing ZIRP/QE driven credit bubble drives demand for rocket scientist financial engineers on the one hand, and low paid, low skilled worker drones servicing the financial engineering bubble nouveau riche of the on the other.
Note: Job openings are postings as of the last day of month.
While new hires have risen, the growth rate of hires is just a fraction of the growth rate of job openings. Hiring has yet to reach the levels of either 2005, 2006, or 2007.
Note: Hires are total for the month.
As a result, the ratio of hiring to job openings has plummeted to an all time low as the mismatch grows between the demand for labor and the ability and willingness of the labor force to meet the offerings of employers. To put it bluntly, would-be workers see too many job openings that are just BS.
If the labor market were truly tightening, wages would be rising faster. In fact, while wages are not falling outright, the growth rate of wages is, again falling below the CPI inflation rate in recent months.
The fact that job openings are rising faster than hires, and wage growth is simultaneously falling, is evidence of the growing mismatch between the jobs being offered and the ability and willingness of the labor force to fill them. The US economy is growing ever more distorted and maladjusted.
These trends began with the institution of ZIRP and QE. The irrational investment incentives those policies promote may or may not be the direct cause of the growing divergence between job openings and hires, but they have certainly contributed to the negative trends. Whether any future policy can reverse or even ameliorate these trends, remains to be seen. The current path is a sobering, if not frightening one, and the track record of Fed and government policy makers to this point does not inspire confidence in the future.
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Magic numbers and fairy dust will fix everything.......
Be an oligarch or work at slave wages for an oligarch
not much in between
That's modern central banking
Thats Common Core Math
Job opening:
Accountant/CPA. Must have a minimum of 5 years experience. Must also be proficient in underwater welding. Engineering degree and direct experience with orbital/space flight mechanics a must. H1B visa a must.
Salary range: $55,000-65,000 depending on experience. No benefits, no 401k match.
"Jobs Americans just won't do" "We cant find any qualified candidates"
Out here in the Great People's Republic of More Free Shit, there is not a single American citizen regardless of race, color or creed who will work in the fields plucking strawberries, lettuce, etc. The closest American citizens get to that is the overseer role whether in the fields, vineyard, etc.
And you can betcha betcha betcha that the guys doing the pickin' ain't legals.
Go figure
If there are no illegals to pick strawberries the job will pay accordingly.
Granted not many will be able to afford strawberries but someone will be paid enough to pick them.
That's "plausible deniability"
Moar like moar computer "glitches" will do it..
Just keep breaking it til it's fixed damn it..
Apply for jobs at the dip!
There are no markets - everyhting is centrally controlled. These markets will NOT go down until the Central Bankers want them to go down. If they lose control the market shuts because of technical issues. Same holds for gold and silver. When the thing finally crashes we will get global digital currency - the only way to buy goods and services. It's all been planned and is ready to go at the right time. The Sheeple will be begging for it.
Guess people are not willing to work for minimum wage yet. USA is such a shit show. Exported all the decent jobs. Donald Trump is looking good.
Remove 30 million illegals and what do you think happens to the wages of even the lowliest of jobs?
Get your shit together America and start with your own country, call your POS law maker and demand your country (and your fiscal life) back.
Jobs now a days are often a temporary and unprofitable nuisance!...start your own business!
If your self employed boss is an alcoholic and an asshole, at least you can drink on the job and then fire yourself!..then kick your own ass out in the parking lot! True defintition of 'double plus good!'
this is the single dumbest fucking "indicator" on the planet. lets just say for arguements sake my firm is friendly towards the obama administration. we could help them out with this stat AT NO COST TO US by posting 10,000 job openning (and my firm has under 50 people) just to help BUMP up the JOLTS #. there is no guarantee a "posted" job leads to an "actual" job with a real paycheck, paying a good wage that helps spur economic growth.
i swear you simply cannot make-up how fucking retarded these people are.
in janet's car (according to the way she reads a "dash board"), the gas tank is on empty but since she got the brakes fixed & a new set of tires, its all good for 1,000 mile trip on a road with no gas station.
Just a minute there! You seem to imply some sort of inappropriate relationship between elected officials and corporate entities. Outrageous!
Having Government isn't bad they just can't be your primary employer base.
"Whatever wage growth you have gets eaten up in the paycheck."
"We're all Greeks now" in the sense that we have to live food to mouth and under the table.
This obviously is bad for Government too as it depresses tax revenues.
We "papered all this over" with the housing bubble circa 2001-2008.
But prices paid for said homes have really hit a brick wall here...and have never really moved off the bubble high's.
So if the mystical "Chinese Buyer" suddenly fails to appear "there goes your real estate based economic growth."
Gotta watch out in the US too....Americans move. so one boom can be followed by a a bust that lasts well nigh forever.
In the real world a decent standard of living requires a significant amount of many different real resources. Let's be clear, there is not, nor will there ever be an economic, monetary, fiscal, or political solution to resource scarcity.
The bankers, financiers, and their political puppets have grown very wealthy, now remind me what do these fuckers actually produce (requiring real work) again?
We would all be better off turning them into fertillizer...
Nahhh... The EPA would declare them toxic waste.
Don't really care about wages short term. All that matters is that the economy adds jobs, even crappy ones.
So much gets fixed long term if people are working: housing, healthcare, social security, the deficit, crime, poverty, and even wages.
1000 bartenders is better than 1000 folks sitting on their couch collecting a government check.
No.
Standard Disclaimer: It is time for your medication. Let me pour that for you.
Thanks Cheech! I was going to waste time attempting to shoot his theory fool (sic) of holes, but you were much more concise.
when this whole shit show collpases, hopefully she will get a 500 volt "jolt" in the electric chair for her role... or maybe just hang her, easier
Janet knows the job market sucks ass, that the debt is unpayable, and the ponzi unsustainable.
She works for the banks - she is paid to spins tales of the "dual mandate" and "FED models" and numerous other fantasies.
When she is done she will go through the revolving door to G.S. or Citi or J.P. Morgan Chase and be well rewarded.
Soon to be renamed DOLTS (Dropkick Our Lame Turnover Survey)
Its only fair that everyone works a little bit. That's why part time jobs are politically correct. QE is a zero sum policy. At first there are winners are debt holders refinance. Then the drag of savers losing interest income and the effect of mal investments offset any gains. The problem is that the FED has no alternative, they are scared to raise rates even a paltry .25%, its such a joke.
Here are a couple of other points to consider about those so-called "job openings":
1. Most of those jobs are listed in multiple locations: monster.com, indeed.com, craigslist.org, jobs.net, simplyhired.com. So this means there is a huge potential for double-counting and thereby grossly overstating the number of job openings that actually exist.
2. There is frequently a significant lag between the time a position is filled and the time the job opening is removed from the various places where it is posted. So again, there is a huge potential for grossly overstating the number of job openings that actually exist.
If you think the job openings numbers are phony, it's because they actually are phony.
The government is offering too many incentives to those who choose not to work.
1. Economics is not an exact science but pretends to be like Krugman.
2. Garbage in garbage out
Have to have a PhD to not understand that
I have 2 minors in economics - one each at the graduate and undergraduate levels.
Most economics is pure bullshit.
Hello Bob,
You are right I am ashamed I am a CFA better had do medicine or simply baking bread.
I graduated in 1993 with my masters in engineering and I can personally tell you job offerings can be totally bogus. A lot of engineering companies put out false leads just to get resumes on file in case they get a contract. My field has been barely treading water ever since I got out of school, if it wasn't there would be a robust demand for engineers and the pay would be far higher than it is, it has basically stagnated for over 20 years.
I've been "quasi" retired for over 5 years and I peruse the usual classified online for jobs in my field and other offerings and I think most of them are bogus. I don't know how or where the fed gets it's data, but I would say the easiest thing to fake are job openings, any political activist group can put out a blind ad and there is no way to check the validity of the advertisement (at least your average person's abilities to verify the legitimacy of an ad).
If you want a job, you can work for free as an unpaid intern for the Hitlery Clinton campaign.
No pay, no 401(k), no health insurance, no vacation, no sick leave.
But you'll have a job.
Strategy might be to keep the club exclusive to Trust Babies or kids from Wealthy Families.
Yes, you can join the club, but we want Ivy League Grads and we won't pay you to make sure you are committed, loyal, and already part of the established families.
Sure that is a stupid rationalization and excuse why some of these cocksucking millennials cant find a job but the real reason is most suck, have poor critical thinking and communication skills and are so arrogant and materialistic almost to a pathological extreme
Millennial?? Really?? Math skills are not your strong suit, are they? The guy got his Masters in 1993 which means he was born sometime in the late 60's early 70's. Hardly makes him a millennial.
no offense but you should have gone into Optical Engineering, the applications in the scientific instruments and life sciences fields are still getting green field project funding. The optical instruments used in making circuit boards, medical equipment and pharma mfg applications have been carrying that field quite nicely. Its my understanding that most engineers coming out of school in the 90s were geared toward jobs in the manufacturing sector, but new EPA regs over the past 15-20 years have shut more mfg businesses or offshored the jobs.
Well let's see. Before the crisis, my local Sunday paper job ads section had about 60 pages or so of job openings.
Now, it's about 3-6. Same as the past ~7 years.
Oh and there is alot more 'stuff' squeezing out the job openings in the job ad sections so that each page shows about 1/2 the jobs as they used to fit into each page before the crisis.
Clearly what Yellenanke is doing is working and we simply just need MOAR!!!!
Until Mr. Yellen and Company are doing the Jailhouse Rock, the markets will remain All Shook Up yielding a very Blue Christmas at Heartbreak Hotel pretty mama.
There is no doubt that these job ads are as fake as Sandy Hook. I saw one weird ad in my local "Penny Saver" paper that said they were hiring magnet door-to-door salesman. People to go door-to-door and sell magnets to people. What the hell is that? I laughed like hell. This world is getting odder and odder every day. Something tells me that I am still tripping from my acid experiment in 1976 and I just haven't come out of it yet. Soon, though, soon!
Its all make believe and lies. Have a friend who owns a business and he can't understand why he can't hire any good help. I asked him what he pays, he tells me $8 an hour. Maybe $16,000 a year ain't going to cut it. Who the fuck can live on $16,000 a year before taxes with no benefits.
I had to laugh. I told him way back in the mid 80's i was pulling that down delivering pizzas at night while going to college during the day. That was working 30-35 hours a week. Some guys were making $500 bucks a week working 40-45 hours. That was 30 years ago when $25,000 a year meant something.
8.00 an hour LOL I thought minimum wage everywhere was $9 and in major metros like san Francisco it was $15 because no one would even apply if it were less and even now no one is going to work fir $15 an hour in NYC or Boston
I think Minimum here is still $7 and some change. Maybe I can check real quick. Yep, $7.25.
What is the guy's overhead and admin costs look like?
He drive Brand New Mercedes SUV, Spend a lot on Big Vacations 4 Times a year, Live in a $400K house that is always getting more work done in the yard for additions and changes?
Just wonder if you have a deeper feel for the guy.
Seems like many in the USA have to cut back or take in Roomers in the Maids Quarters or Beach House or 5th Bedroom.
lol.
Danny Noonan: I planned to go to law school after I graduated, but it looks like my folks won't have enough money to put me through college.
Judge Smails: Well, the world needs ditch diggers, too.
This is "Gibson's Paradox" choking the economy so while interest rates go down the cost to liquidate the debt explodes.
So are we to conclude that Big Corporations will need to be broken up to reduce their executive perks, executive compensation, office overhead, new building costs, remodeling costs, limo & air costs... in order to keep inflation of prices from rapid growth with an increase in the FED Interest Rate?
"Gibson's Paradox is the observation that the rate of interest and the general level of prices are positively correlated.[1]"
- High Interest Rates will drive prices up
- Bureaucratic Paradox means large organizations are inefficient
- Smaller Organizations don't waste so much revenue on Status Symbols, Ego Purchases, Leasing Planes & Limos, compete at the highest level for executives with the highest Compensation Packages
- Financial Ratings of Corporations don't yet consider Overhead and Admin Cost Factors as Charity Organization ratings can and do
- Union Negotiations in the USA resulting in very high compensation of workers and led to additional pressure for higher Executive Wages... this proves that Private Industry Failed to negotiate with workers very effectively since much work has been outsourced and factories down sized and even whole industry went overseas
- Must be some suggestion of a third party negotiator in the future between Industry and Worker/Unions... in order not to sacrifice National Production/Industries
This is a chart of A Business Owner attempting to transition into being a Plantation owner and eventually Slave Owner.
The Employers here are unsatisfied wtih their power, and have reposed in government to gain the force necessary to FORCE the labor market into the shape they wish it to be. But in gaining through force there is incentive to use more force resulting in ever more coercion on the terms under which people will work.
At the far end you get Slavery, with all the attendant issues. In theory Slavery is free labor, but the fact is that as the coercion rises the productivity drops, while the embedded costs remain the same.
Slavery is actually high-cost labor because of low productivity, and because you have to shift money from worker salaries to Overseers.
It is always cheaper to get people to act voluntarily.
This is a fact the modern world has largely forgotten.
How many job openings are multiple countings? If you advertise in 3 different ways/places you're likely to get that one job counted as 3 in the stats. Just like the junk mailers hit you 4 times with the same BS promo because they dont filter the duplicates because no human is involved in the count. One letter or dot different and computer says its a separate listing /address. Welcome to the idiocy of the digital age and the end of meaningful stats. And thats before the Faking!!.