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Here Is The Flashing Red Light In The Inventory-Sales Ratio
Recession watchers stay tuned... Wholesale Sales rose a mere 0.3% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.9% rise) but sales tumbled 3.4% YoY - the most since the financial crisis. Hopers will look at the rise in inventories (+0.8% MoM vs +0.3% exp.) as GDP positive but at some point the hope for a sales pick up fades and inventory stuffing stops (Sales -3.4% YoY, Inventories +5.0% YoY). But what should be worrying everyone right now is the inventory-to-sales ratio holding at recession levels.
Big miss in MoM sales and biggest drop in YoY sales since the financial crisis...
and along with a surge in inventories, leaves the critical inventory-to-sales ratio flashing red...
And guess where inventrories are soaring the most...
Here's why this matters so much, as we explained previously...
Despite 22 years of correlations (and obvious causations), asset-gatherers and commission-takers still think this time is different and channel-stuffing and 'if we build it, they will come' inventory overbuilds will be bought away in a swarm of freshfaced crappy creditworthiness consumers... not this time - as peak debt is now upon us.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Why did Colonel Sanders take the Confederate Flag from the officer?
... so the chicken can cross the road?
Most since Lehman?
So he could cram it up the pig's ass?
No, so the Colonel could fry the chicken in Greece...
Chicken?
sales tumbled 3.4% YoY - the most since the financial crisis
Not to worry - Yellen will speak at 12:30 and soothe away all your fears with a few well-chosen lies.
But Greece!
They'll just 'adjust' the GDP again, some more. After all, it's just a number and what could possibly go wrong?
"consumers" can't buy what they can't afford.
High Inflation, Stagnant wages and Peak Debt, Bitches!
Just wait until those 20%-40% ACA premium hikes and deduction/co-pay increases hit!
Then all your refund stolen by the I.R.S. for not having - or not having "enough" - insurance!
Instead of cash for clunkers the new .gov progam will be cash for your semi-used car still in an underwater lease.
"A Penny For Your Thoughts" program from the Feds and they won't have to hand out a cent to the US Citizenisms.
Well, gee, the government better get the consumer borrowing again. How else can we stimulate the economy? ;)
Had a dream last night, QE unleashed in December, could be right?
Prolly October. Not sure they can wait that long.
Canada in trouble. Without public sector hiring the economy would have lost 48k jobs in june. Not lookin good for consumer sales here unless you take into account that inflation is running well over 10%.
You Canadians need an accounting lesson in seasonal adjustments
911 .20 or ww3?before martin armstrongs 2015.75 date
The USA needs to pass a law banning negative press like this.
Aw fuck it - just issue an Executive Order from King Barry. Whatever it takes.
My peak debt is now upon me. It stands at Zero Peak Debt (ZPD), and there it is staying.
Check my smile!
Shouldn't be too long now, before 1 slightly used car = a loaf of bread. (or a package of bacon)
Raw material prices are lower and in some cases much lower. Where the costs are significant, there is a definite benefit at the retail level.
It seems to me that we should be looking at unit sales where possible and not simply dollar. Dollars do not reflect real health.
Here are some "radical" ideas to help our economy...
http://incapp.org/blog/?p=2590
Gots ta have a new whip ta cruise in.
The raw drop in sales was 2.5% from April to May, and 6.8%(!) YOY.
As bad as they are, the seasonally adjusted numbers look seriously cooked to the positive side.
And the lemmings run toward the abiss....
We need another new normal law to allow huge inventories to remain on the books~~~tax free of course.
wwxx
But, but, the news said this...
Wholesale inventories rise more than expectedU.S. wholesale inventories rose at their fastest pace in six months in May, reinforcing the view that economic growth should rebound in the second quarter.