This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Mapping The World's "Grey Swans"
As H2 2015 begins, Goldman looks at so-called "grey swans" - known market risks that could prove particularly disruptive. From China credit risks to Russia and from rate volatility to Russia with Middle East tensions, cyber threats, and illiquidity-induced 'flash-crashes', the known-but-not-priced-in risks are rising... because - simply put - central bank omnipotence remains the narrative (for now).
Russia is fading as a risk quickly (much to Washington's chagrin) as China risk accelerates rapidly...
And over time...
And so while Janet keeps trying to talk down any rate hikes as 'priced-in' or not an issue, the market (and Goldman) clearly thinks differently as sees interest rate volatility as the biggest "grey swan" currently... and when the costs of capital vary dramatically, CFOs will tamp down their debt-financed buybacks...
Source: Goldman Sachs
»
- 17833 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The biggest swan is that all the western sovereign debt is 2 orders of magnitude too large to ever be repaid by the people.
Thus, the literal definition of our "money" is an iou redeemable only for more iou's that can never possibly be repaid unless the debt is inflated away.
I don't necessarily disagree but where do you get the "2 orders of magnitude?" Explain an 'order of magnitude' in this case.
The old grey swan; ain't what she used to be."
One Order of Magnitude is a product of TEN.
Two Orders of Magnitude is a product of ONE HUNDRED.
Likewise Three Orders of Magnitude is a product of One Thousand...
...and so what do you suppose that Four Orders of Magnitude is a product of?
a X 104 or a X 10,000
Study Exponential Mathematics as the term, Order of Magnitude, is based upon the log10X system and is quite distinct and well defined as a mathematical term..
Think of this in terms of the Richter Scale for Earthquakes. A Magnitude 7 is Ten Times more powerful than a Magnitude 6 and One Hundred Times as powerful as a Magnitude 5.
Hope that this clarifies it.
However I disagree with Fun Facts assessment.
I believe it to be much less than Two Orders of Magnitude and is less than but closing in on One Order of Magnitude when comapring Funded and Unfunded Liabilities to that of gross GDP.
Not a single US dollar will be repaid in that context it is 19 trillion orders of manitude.
inflated away - or forgiven
not that the word jubilee is much in parlance
Goldman Sachs
Why would believe anything this wrecking crew spits out ?
Swans can be angry birds. I once tried to feed a swan pieces of a white styrofoam coffee cup (instead of the preferred handout - bread). That swan attacked me! Swans have no sense of humor.
Yellen should do a 5 basis points rise. Would the world really freak out about 5 basis points? Then do another 5 basis points in 4-5 months.
Swans shit where they eat !
Hmm, Smart money buying big?
http://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/KWN-SentimenTrader-V...
Oh, the "Gangs of New York" smartie-pants. What if the swan is something completely different?
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregular-heartbeat-sun-driven-dynamo.html
Here's one.
http://www.people.com/article/nicky-hilton-james-rothschild-wedding
Where are our snipers when you need them?
They are in Athens, waiting for the go signal.
Fuck 'em. I'm "Mapping the Gray Goose"
You're goose is grey because it's cooked.
It is grey and black only to the victims. Now, goldman thinks it is time to profit ... where were they all these years? zh, you seem to go soft on Goldman ... as in you just report what they do ...