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The One Common Feature In Every Financial Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

Spontaneous combustion.

Alien invasion.

Zombie apocalypse.

What do these have in common? Their likelihood is next to impossible. So why worry?

This is how people tend to think about the financial system.

Mentioning even the possibility, for example, that the US could default on its debt is met with so much scorn and contempt it would be safer to stand on the street corner warning about an alien invasion.

The same goes for the imposition of capital controls. Or a collapse in the banking system. Or a currency crisis.

No one, from the average guy on the street to a Nobel Prize-winning economist, wants to acknowledge that these possibilities exist.

And yet the most casual glance at the headlines proves that these events not only can happen, they do happen.

The Greek government is broke. This didn’t happen overnight. It’s not like Greece has always been a picture of financial health and just recently fell on tough times.

Greece has been broke for ages. As has the Greek banking system– overstuffed with government IOUs and bad loans that have no hope of being repaid.

And that’s why we’re seeing everything unfold in the headlines. Bank runs. Capital controls. Default.

It all starts with debt. Whenever a country gets too deep into debt, it’s going to get into trouble. History is very clear on this point.

Debt almost always leads to negative consequences, most notably default.

They’ll either default on their private creditors, i.e. the poor souls who loaned them money to begin with.

Or they’ll default on foreign governments, creating destructive trade wars and currency crises.

Mostly, though, they’ll default on their obligations to their citizens– suspending pension payments, imposing capital controls, raising taxes, destroying the value of the currency, and bailing in the banks with customer deposits.

Debt kills. And sooner or later, if history is any guide, nearly every heavily indebted nation will resort to this very limited playbook.

Just look at Greece: the government has established tight restrictions over bank withdrawals and is even preventing people from accessing safety deposit boxes.

This highlights yet again that banks are merely an extension of their governments– stooges that will turn against you in a heartbeat and comply with every order their bankrupt master gives them.

It’s foolish to hold one’s life savings within the banking system of a heavily-indebted nation.

And doing something about it need not be complicated.

It’s 2015. You can move savings to an offshore bank account (i.e. a stable foreign bank with very strong fundamentals) without having to leave town.

Or in some cases, without leaving your living room.

It’s also easy to hold real assets like gold and silver in a fully insured, non-bank safety deposit box overseas.

This is sound advice for anyone living in a heavily-indebted nation.

It’s not some wild assertion or conspiracy theory to acknowledge that there’s risk in the system. The publicly-available data is very clear: almost every western nation is insolvent and far past the point of no return.

These are real risks not to be assumed away. They’re uncomfortable and unpopular to think about. But they are not negligible.

And in the face of such clear data, rational, thinking people ought to have a Plan B.

 

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Fri, 07/10/2015 - 15:56 | 6296764 Stroke
Stroke's picture

Martians are comming!........Nah It's just the wife

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 15:59 | 6296781 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

My sister has a rational Plan B. And now she works from home and makes $4,800 a month just using the alphabet. You can do the same. Just contact us at PlanB.com

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:03 | 6296795 Looney
Looney's picture

Here’s another Zombie…

What happened to the conveniently forgotten Mark-to-Market?

Is it STILL marked to fantasy?

If our economy is so “exceptionally” strong, and the FED-manipulated markets are just a spit away from the new all-time-highs, why not change the “FAS 157” back to normal? BITCHEZ!!!

Looney

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark-to-market_accounting#FAS_157_.2F_Acco...

 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:09 | 6296817 bracemaker
bracemaker's picture

In fact, back in 2005, Forbes magazine ranked Rothschild family patriarch Mayer Amschel Rothschild as the seventh most influential businessman of all time. He "helped invent modern banking by introducing concepts such as diversification, rapid communication, confidentiality and high volume" in the late 1700s in Frankfurt, Germany. His empire spread throughout Europe. 

LOL They forgot slavery.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:21 | 6296873 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

Where is Hercules when you really need him?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:23 | 6296879 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

Where is Zeus when you really need him?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:24 | 6296885 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

Calling Ares, God of War.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:35 | 6296938 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

They're all standing in a soup line on the outskirts of Athens.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:34 | 6297193 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

The one common result of every Financial Crisis?
We all get poorer...
http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/07/economics-for-serfs.html

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:59 | 6297303 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Aka Yahweh to some ME tribesmen.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:46 | 6296995 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Farting. Oh, Hercules!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:00 | 6297054 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Better call the Dr. and tell him you have cancer, he'll understand.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:20 | 6297139 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Fifth labor?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:05 | 6296807 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

In market of fiat coercion, there is no price discovery, and so there is no mark-to-market other than is create by corrupt analyst and statistician that is employ of criminal class bankster. Boris is not lie!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:07 | 6296812 knukles
knukles's picture

Level 3

BITCHEZ

DERIVED AS COMPARED TO NON-OBSERVABLE INFLUENCES (or some such shit)

Honest.  I wouldn't kid about stuff this serious that's so fucked up.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:13 | 6296841 Captain Debtcrash
Captain Debtcrash's picture

Good post.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:34 | 6296800 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is also use alphabet, but is make more money extract copper. You are come work for Boris! Bring you are own leather glove and thick rubber boot. You are bring sister too if is experience stripper!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:01 | 6296788 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

"Do not run! We are your friend!"

-- Mars Attacking

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 15:56 | 6296766 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Credit greases the wheels and excess debt kills the deal.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:07 | 6296811 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

In case of violent rape, there is no consideration for any lubricant.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 15:56 | 6296767 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

Rational thinking people?????? What's that?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:24 | 6296884 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Someone with a Plan A of gold/silver and a Plan B of lots of lead.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:45 | 6297244 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

Smart rational person knows he need silver in Plan B too. 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 15:57 | 6296769 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

Does Krugman know about this?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 15:58 | 6296777 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Greece debt deal gets approved this weekend and Monday we are back over 18000. What a fucking joke.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:09 | 6296821 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Kicking the can down the road presumes there is more road.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:23 | 6296880 optimator
optimator's picture

One day they'll miss the can and kick a Teller Mine by accident.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:44 | 6296979 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Hope remains.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 19:29 | 6297527 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

...and springs eternal.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:45 | 6296983 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Kicking the can down the cul de sac.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:14 | 6297112 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

The people that voted no last weekend might have something to say about that.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 18:06 | 6297326 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So, what "The End Is Near" drama do we come up with now? 

Given that ISIS, Ebola, Syria, Ukraine and Greece are so 'Yesterday'.

Oh, wait... Jade Helm.

Is it TGOF and after 5 pm somewhere yet?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 18:52 | 6297437 Ceomegaglobalcorp
Ceomegaglobalcorp's picture

3 years ago it came to me that the U.S. stock market would never go down again, and that at the first hint of a major sell off exchanges would be shut down and selling stocks would be banned, and I said so at business insider, repeatedly. While I admit I wasn't expecting to see this happen in China first, I still don't understand why most people haven't looked at modern capabilities coupled with human nature and reached the same obvious conclusion too, because it's clear that they haven't, because they keep talking about this stock crash that's never going to come. Brilliant people too. I actually worry some of them might retreat into seclusion when it finally dawns on them.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:08 | 6296814 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The Pope is a Marxist.

Hang the jesuits.

 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:20 | 6296865 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Banksters are the common Denominator

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:20 | 6296867 chunga
chunga's picture

The first thing to come to mind after reading the title was something else.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:39 | 6296950 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

Hey man!  Your avatar is hurting my feeeeeelings!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:40 | 6296956 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Yeah. Humans.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:29 | 6297176 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yes***...But it is a special subset of that set..

 

(***And some may not even believe that they are human.)

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:42 | 6297231 chunga
chunga's picture

lol

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:29 | 6296905 hibou-Owl
hibou-Owl's picture

Buy productive farmland that has flowing water, not wells.
Even better if the government pays support on the land.

When people live tied to an ATM, the risk is high!
When you have ducks, chickens, pigs, sheep, orchard, and vege patch that's your ATM.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:34 | 6296932 joseJimenez
joseJimenez's picture

Yup!  100% agreement.  Also special skills necessary for survival can be use as currency.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:08 | 6297095 Slurm
Slurm's picture

The next bubble? Agriculture?

 

I had some nice grass fed beef from Austrailia last weekend. Turns out that's the hot ticket down under!

 

There's something afoot with Australia's wealthiest entrepeneurs and its rural sector.

http://www.afr.com/business/agriculture/billionaires-beef-up-in-bush-201...

Sat, 07/11/2015 - 06:15 | 6298618 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

Its only an ATM if you can protect them from hungry neighbours.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:37 | 6296942 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Don't fuck with the zombie apocalypse motherfucker.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:43 | 6296969 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Don't fuck with the zombie apocalypses mother, fucker!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 16:55 | 6297033 mojojojo
mojojojo's picture

Emergency! Call Krugman, Yellen, Bernanke. They'll know what to do!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:01 | 6297065 mendigo
mendigo's picture

I imagine that chinas downturn will be the iron butterfly that knocks this rig of helium party balloons from the sky.

Thanks to the cloacking efforts of the fed and the media no one will know until they find themselves out of work and facing accelerating inflation.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:02 | 6297068 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Them shits will swing high.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:08 | 6297092 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Jews?

What did I win?

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:53 | 6297273 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

thanks!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:24 | 6297152 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Spontaneous combustion? 

Sorry Simon, Spontaneous combustion is a common occurrence in non compacted coal piles.

 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:24 | 6297154 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Three are, cannot be, no financial crises without banksters.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

Sylvester McMonkey McBean is Zion.

 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:41 | 6297214 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Why keep hard assets overseas or in a bank? I heard for years Singapore had a benevolent dictator. Things were booming.

Now the government is discussing bank bail-ins. You want us all to come to South America Simon? Fine buy us all a ticket and crowdsource your private empire. Until then shut up. I am sick of hearing about it.

Frankly, if I want to be a warlord in South America I will do it myself. For now, I am staying put. I can be a local warlord here in feudal America.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 17:49 | 6297266 SMC
SMC's picture

LOL.  There are no stable locations on this planet as long as “Just Us” and their Neo-Nazi’s control the USSA war machine.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 18:16 | 6297362 norecovery
norecovery's picture

The real "underlying reason" is that infinite growth is not possible on a finite planet.

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 19:28 | 6297522 withglee
withglee's picture

Debt almost always leads to negative consequences, most notably default.

Government debt (a promise to complete a trade) "always" leads to default. Governments never deliver on their trading promises. They just roll them over, and that's default. There has never been a case where a government could collect enough taxes, fees, tariffs, thefts, and levies to support it's insatiable propensity to grow ... exponentially.

On the other hand, trader's debt, (a promise to complete a trade) almost "never" ends in default. It almost always ends in delivery as promised. And when the MOE is properly managed, DEFAULTs are immediately met with like INTEREST collections guaranteeing zero INFLATION ... all the time, everywhere.

Debt is not the issue. Deadbeat traders who are not quickly ostracized from the marketplace (through high interest loads on their trading promises) is the issue.

 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 20:19 | 6297656 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

I take issue with your solution.  Whether money in a foreign bank or gold in a foreign safe deposit box, the very first target of capital controls is always assets held outside the country and/or freedom of travel.  So unless you plan to emmigrate at the first sign (!) of trouble, you need to keep your currency nearby, not electronically whisked into the ether, where it can dematerialize at a keystroke.

 

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 21:43 | 6297945 r3ct1f13r
r3ct1f13r's picture

This!

Fri, 07/10/2015 - 22:56 | 6298126 SmedleyButlersGhost
SmedleyButlersGhost's picture

You can move savings to an offshore bank account

If that is your plan B - you need a new plan

Sat, 07/11/2015 - 06:57 | 6298643 DIGrif
DIGrif's picture

Hell I have a plan 3B, That would be Beans, Bullets, and Bullion.

Sun, 07/12/2015 - 10:26 | 6302015 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Don't forget the asswipe!

Plan A3B!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!