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Why NATO Fears 'Grexit'
Originally posted at SputnikNews.com,
With Greece tottering on the brink of leaving the Eurozone, experts of all stripes have been debating Grexit's security implications, including Athens' relationship with NATO. While naysayers argue that the geopolitics behind Grexit "are actually pretty boring," others warn that the implications for the bloc could be far more serious.
Over the past couple of weeks, US and European media have been busy pondering the implications of the Grexit for European security, particularly as it relates to the NATO alliance. Following an initial outburst of panic and alarm about NATO standing to lose its Mediterranean outpost to Moscow before being flooded by immigrants, NATO Secretary General Jeans Stoltenberg urged for calm, noting that the Greeks "have not linked the problems within the European Union and the euro with their strong commitment to NATO," and adding that Athens will remain "a close partner."
Influential US news and geopolitical analysis publication Foreign Policy echoed Stoltenberg's tone, brushing off security fears with a recent headline reading "The Geopolitics of a Grexit Are Actually Pretty Boring." The piece, written by former European Council on Foreign Relations Senior Policy Fellow Dimitar Bechev, argues that "those fretting that a Greek departure from the Eurozone will unleash a flood of migrants and send Athens into the arms of a waiting Putin should calm down," noting that "none of this is going to happen."
Bechev states out that the "alarmist" arguments over Greece have turned the country, a "peripheral member of the West that accounts for a mere 3 percent of the eurozone's GDP, into a pivotal country."
Moreover, dismissing arguments about the country's 'dangerous' "flirtation with Russia," Bechev posits that in actuality, the "Russian gambit," aimed at providing the Syriza-led coalition with "some space to maneuver" in relation to Brussels and Berlin, has "failed to pay off."
As far as Greece's geopolitical importance is concerned, Bechev notes that geopolitical considerations have not really given the country "much mileage in the debt talks," adding that "even if Athens wanted to foment trouble –and there are few signs that it does –it has little power to actually do so."
Ultimately, according to the analyst, Greece is and will remain unlikely to rock the boat on any of Europe's major security and foreign affairs issues, from anti-Russian sanctions, to the US-EU trade pact, to immigration controls.
Trojan Horse, or Weakest Link?
But Bechev's calm and level-headed analysis is contradicted by other experts, no less dispassionate and rational than he is, including fellow FP contributor and former NATO commander James Stavridis, who noted in a piece preceding Bechev's that even if the "angry, disaffected and battered nation" remains a NATO member, it could nonetheless become an obstructive one. This, in Stavridis's view, would be a very serious problem for what is ostensibly a consensus-driven organization.
According to the former Navy commander, this obstructionism could come to a head when it comes time for the organization to make decisions against perceived threats, including Russia. It could also lead to thorny issues over the use of Greek bases in the Mediterranean, or Athens' participation in NATO military missions.
Politico Europe echoes Stavridis's analysis, noting in a recent article that with NATO "rely[ing] on unanimous approval from all 28 members for all major decisions, Greece, especially one shored up with economic reprieve from Russia, could prove to be a major headache for future Alliance maneuvers" to counter Moscow. Furthermore, the publication notes that "NATO's unanimity clause applies not only to deploying military forces, but also to essential day-to-day functions of the Alliance such as arms sales and major political decisions such as invoking Article 4 or 5 of the Washington Treaty to consult and defend fellow allies."
Challenging Bechev's argument that Greece could not put a crimp in NATO's plans 'even if it wanted to', numerous analysts have cited Athens' history of obstructing NATO decisions when necessary, from the country's outright withdrawal from the organization's military command structure in the 1970s, following Turkey's invasion of Cyprus, to its condemnation of NATO's 1999 bombing campaign of Yugoslavia, to recent efforts to block NATO-EU cooperation over the Turkey-Cyprus dispute.
Moreover, even if Stoltenberg is correct, and an Athens left to its economic fate continues to be NATO's "close partner," its impoverished status would likely leave it NATO's weakest link. As recently noted by The Guardian's John Hooper, while Greece is presently one of the few NATO members which abides by the requirement to spend at least 2 percent of its GDP on defense, the country's economic collapse would not only cripple the country's participation in NATO missions; it would also signal the weakening of the organization's south-eastern flank, while sparking fears of a Russia looking to take military advantage of the situation.
Economic Ripple Effects
Even if the naysayers are correct, and Moscow shows that it does not have the political will or the financial wherewithal to attempt to pry Greece from NATO's warm embrace, analysts note that the Greek crisis has had, and is likely to continue to have, a knock-on economic effect on European economies.
In a recent op-ed for Indian Express, University of Cambridge lecturer and Greek Public Policy Forum member Nikitas Konstantinidis argued that "the chain set off by Grexit" could be "even more painful than events following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy" in 2008. As a result, Politico Europe notes that if the recession-treading members of the EU were to face further economic shocks resulting from Grexit, this will not "augur well for NATO militaries," shifting "NATO members' focus further away from defense spending."
Security Issues Surrounding the Migrant Crisis
With Greece turning into one of the main points of entry for tens of thousands of African and Middle Eastern refugees fleeing war and instability across the Mediterranean, analysts warn that Grexit is likely to have a negative impact on this pressing issue as well. And While Bechev's argument that Greece is unlikely to "use migration controls as a weapon in a guerilla war against Europe" stands to reason, this does not mean that economic collapse and the ensuing political and social fallout will have a positive impact on the country's ability to control the flood of immigrants.
As Politico Europe points out, the worsened economic situation following Grexit will severely "undercut badly needed funding for Greece's ability to track refugees and retain border security" which in turn "poses a very real danger to NATO members' security, especially as reports begin to filter in of Islamic State fighters slipping into Europe in the wave of refugees.
300 Spartans
Ultimately, while some analysts now attempt to downplay Greece's importance in the political, economic and security geography of Europe, others, including Konstantinidis, maintain that the country remains "a core member of some of the world's largest regional blocs." Therefore, "the ramifications of a potential Grexit" are likely to be highly "disproportionate to the country's economic size and geopolitical clout."
As far as transatlantic security is concerned, the danger posed by the Grexit is not confined to the questions it raises over Greece's NATO membership, or the security ripple effects caused by the Greek economy's collapse. Grexit's danger lies in the fact that it serves as a symbol of the reversal of transatlantic institutions' fortunes in their attempts to build and maintain a hegemonic political, economic and military order in Europe.
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tick tock boom
http://www.philiacband.com/propaganda.html
Started working at home! It is by far the best job I have ever had. I just recently purchased a Brand new BMW since getting a check for $5476 this 8-week past. I began this 10 months ago and I am now bringing home at least $87 per hour. I work through this link. Go here... www.earnmore9.com
It is too late for NATO - it is a military organization representing broke and broken Western countries. There were remarkable meetings at Ufa this past week of representatives of half the world's population.
"...The Silk World Order that is being shaped in Ufa will see the existing Bretton Woods financial architecture of the world unraveled and replaced by one that is no longer dominated by the trilateral grouping of the United States, Western Europe, and Japan. The monopoly of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which has benefited Washington, is at its end. The US dollar as a currency in bilateral and multilateral trade is being scraped by the BRICS, SCO, and EEU— Washington’s flooding of oil markets was partially aimed at derailing this by forcing renewed dependence on the US dollar for energy trade. ..."
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-us-dollar-and-bretton-woods-are-finished-the-bricssco-summits-in-ufa-marks-the-start-of-a-silk-world-order/5461828
-and-
"... So while the European ruling plutocracy is trying to find a new way to further dispossess the Greek people and keep southern Europe subjugated to the rule of international bankers and financiers, the participants of the double summit in Ufa are laying the basis of a new world order, but not at all the New World Order predicted by George H.W. Bush. One could say that they are building an anti New World Order.
Predictably, the western elites and their corporate media are in a “deep denial” mode. Not only do they not comment much about this truly historical event, but when they comment about it they assiduously avoid discussing the immense implications which these events will have for the entire planet. This borders on magical thinking: if I close my eyes hard enough and long enough this nightmare will eventually vanish.
It won’t. ..."
http://thesaker.is/a-tale-of-two-world-orders-unz-review-column/
Started working at home! It is by far the best job I have ever had. I just recently purchased a Brand new BMW since getting a check for $5476 this 8-week past. I began this 10 months ago and I am now bringing home at least $87 per hour. I work through this link. Go here... www.earnmore9.com
Carrot beats stick, Putin will be wearing a Speedo in Mykonos by end of year.
Didn't attend Catholic schools, I take it.
OT:
The Chinese economic meltdown is undeniable & spectacular, especially watching it in real time, and will only get worse from here.
China's trade balance missed expectations by a MASSIVE 20%+ (on an already massively lowered expected #) in June !
http://portal.ransquawk.com/headlines/chinese-trade-balance-cny-jun-m-m-...
News Headline Summary
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY) (Jun) M/M 284.2bln vs Exp. 355.00bln (Prev. 366.80bln)
- Exports (Jun) Y/Y 2.1% vs Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 14.6%)
- Imports (Jun) Y/Y -6.7% vs Exp. -16.2% (Prev. -12.3%)
Reaction details (03:02)
- In an immediate reaction AUD/USD rose by 15 pips to 0.7438 from 0.7423, trades 0.7436 last
Analysis details (03:05)
- China Customs states that exports still faces rather large pressure in the forthcoming months adding that the economy is to experience downside pressure.
13 Jul 2015 - 03:00 - Forex Important - Source: BBG
Strap in, because 2015-2016 is now going to be as turbulent as 2008-2009, if not more so.
Putin doesn't need to do much.
The Europeans will fuck it up for him, then he'll just walk in and offer Greece some aid and help when they GREXIT.
The EU (along with US) have effectively given Greece the finger (Ukraine, on the other hand will get more IMF $$). So despite all of this, Greece is supposed to continue being an upstanding member of NATO. What do working/unemployed people in Greece get out of this relationship? What would you do if you were a policy maker in Greece?
Greece has few young people, atop having few people at all, atop being broke. They don't add much to NATO, concretely. Au contraire, NATO has the burden of defending them.
When is the last time you looked at a Mediteranean map ?
No way will they ever let Greece go without bringing in the military. That is what the British did after WW2 - and shot the partisans - to make sure Greece does not lean east.
Thierry Meyssan observes the international campaign against Greece leaving the Euro zone. He shines a light on the historic project of the European Union and the Euro, as they were formulated in 1946 by Churchill and Truman, and concludes that in the end, Greece is trapped by the international geopolitical environment and not by its economic situation.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article188082.html
According to the bankers, Greece owes them what ~ 365B? Since when are central bankers squeamish about QE'ing themselves such a sum?
We've heard whining from various sectors of the US "why should taxpayers foot the bill for protecting europe?". Ha Ha, USSA isn't their to protect Europe! USSA military is there to keep Europe towing the Nudelman Neocon line. DUH!
Once one country leaves NATO, others will follow. Why? Because it makes sense on many levels.
It is tempting to accept some of the posts on ZH without question because of the seemingly impeccable logic. But it is always wise to read everything here with a reasonable amount of skepticism.
Journalist and Russian human rights activist Alexander Podrabinek (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Podrabinek) has called Sputnik News "a tool of Russian state propaganda distribution abroad, and has likened it to a pro-Putin version of BuzzFeed and described it as 'anti-Western'." (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_(news_agency)) -- not that either are unbiased or perusing an agenda. But this example does illustrate that skepticism will help you get closer to the truth.
An anti-putin propagandist and Buzzfeed? Lol. Buzzfeed.... BF also has an article right now about the pizza sauce you need in your life and one about why dogs are better than cats.
Not saying Sputnik news isn't biased or propaganda, but you might wanna not pick another propagandist and clickbait media as alternatives for information.
Good day Kind Sage,
Two points:
1. Everything is 'propaganda' if it seeks to persuade said recipient of the subject either on a conscious or subsconcsious level (just ask Edward Bernays). However, the question is, what is truth? Nietzsche called truth "a mobile army of metaphors, metonyms, and anthropomorphisms -- in short, a sum of human relations, which have been enhanced, transposed, and embellished poetically and rhetorically...truths are illusions about which one has forgotten that is what they are." However, I do not believe in such a relative and cynical view of truth. All truths in this digital age can be arrived by through a simple common sense approach - comparing, contrasting various sources and information for contradictions, inconsistencies, omissions, exaggerations, etc. Over the last several years, alternative media content online has been thriving thanks to the diligence of those trailblazers (like onZerohedge) who cover information from angles the mainstream media does not. Does that mean all alternative media is now truthful? No, because it too itself is capable of the same errors that mainstream media makes. Plus, alternative media is also a target for Cass Sunstein's (Mr. Samantha Power) "cognitive infiltration" which is just a newer enhanced version of the FBI's Cointelpro. Consequently, we as individuals must always be vigilant and truth to separate the wheat from the chaff.
2. There is a legitimate argument to make that NATO does fear a Greek exit from the Euro. There are many variables and players at stake here. One argument to make is that NATO fears a Greek exit, partly, because it fears Greece may fall into the Russian orbit or sphere of influence. However, this assumes that NATO itself is not somehow puppeteering this "Greek crisis." Another argument can be made that this current Greek crisis is created to precisely allow for destabilization in Greece. If there are riots and uprisings, this would make Greece dsyfunctional politically, rather than just economically. I see this more as a way for NATO/US/EU to halt Russia's influence, if the conditions are right. From NATO's perspective, they created a failed state in Ukraine, thus halted Russia's oil imperialism. Now that Russia wanted to create an alternate route via Turkey and Greece, this may be an attempt to bring this to full boiling point to prevent Russia from going through with those plans. Time will tell and whether we like it or not, we all have front row seets as we observe the 21st century unfold.
Respectfully.
NATO is a blood promise that binds all its members.
EU is money issue between money partners.
Merkel, Germany and NATO can not have it both ways.
NATO's existence, being predicated on war against Russia even if they have to start it, is a national security threat to the US, so if it falls apart that's a positive.
The original intent of NATO (pre ICBM days) was to use Europe as a decoy target, allowing Russia and Europe to destroy themselves (again) leaving the US untouched. Those days are now long gone. The secondary objective of military hardware homogenisation for the benefit of US arms manufacturers still remains.
Greek military should take over government, purge all socialists and communists in Greece, crackdown on widespread endemic corruption, cut gummin bureaucrats by 75%, eliminate all income taxes and all entitlement programs, ban trade unions, revoke all laws regulating labor, etc.
Gtreek economy would BOOM!
wouldn't be the 1st one,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_military_junta_of_1967%E2%80%9374
most likely this is going to follow lead by the Golden Dawn
It is not Greece but Turkey that NATO needs to worry about in the SE of Europe.
Yet a Turkish defection would probably lead to a stronger Greek determination to stick with NATO due to the mutual hatred between these two neighbors.
Every month of enhanced debt slavery and asset conversion to Berlin/Brussels will realitivize the Greek polity.
Case in point the whole Golden Dawn thing.
Now while not setting the world on fire, the sad prospect is the US State Department was more than happy to squirt a little cash into the hands hearts and minds of Ukraine for the Maidan and look what that has wrought.
Now you have those flunkies shooting it our with Ukraine internal security and not just pro-Russian forces.
If Greece starts electing a new coalition government every 9 months, it does not say much for stability nor the guarantee for Greece to stay in NATO.
Sure they can pay the generals like they do the Egyptians and maybe that's the end game, but there is an example of holding a paper tiger by the tail.
Oh yeah, like it takes a genius to see it ...
So why dont Satan America (the puppetmaster) bailout Greece with 10 billion dollars(or more), They can anyway print more.
Let me help ou on this one...
1.Because Greece does not want the American money, last time they gave us some it took us 40 years to get rid of the dept and them (Marshal Loan)
2.Greece's debt is bigger in value then the total of physical Gold reserves that USA has in it's vaults, so 10 bill is like a fart amongst a diarrhea episode.
If there is something that the USA can do now that costs no money and will resolve this in one day is simple...one day vist of Obama and one 30 mins meeting with Tsipras...and nothing to talk or announce. Just a visit !!!
Preferably both of them wearing this T-shirt
http://rlv.zcache.com/im_with_stupid_tshirt-rcf1d44adbce641448f0e4121850...
And then you have Turkey, also a member of NATO. With strategic military bases for the middle east. Turkey is more interested in making buisnisses with the east ( Turkstream gas pipeline)
Stop swallowing lollies served to you by cheap media.
We (The Greeks) were there from day one when NATO and EU was born. We are the cornerstone of democracy and freedom...we are also shit with money.
There is no single event in modern history that will turn us to pillow bitters of institutions like communism, Islamism etc. We, our very existence, our beliefs are deeply against all that, after all yyou have inherited some of our principles.
This is just leverage that you have to obey and do what is right with us. Pay back time is upon YOU...not US.
The North Amerikan Terror Organ limp dick attached to Urupp by mega stud porn king USSA is a bit of a flaccid joke by any measure. Without the constant infu$ion of U$$AN fiat viagra the uninformed uniformed mutt extension of Pentacon Kill Industries wouldn't even exist. As it is with Merca parking all its lost wars military surplus garbage in the post soviet slum of Eastern Urupp and its drug-addled snaggle-toothed unemployable protoplast sitting around ....doing drugs and being harassed by the unruly natives, does anyone really realy imagine that Russia is impressed?
The idea of doing a first or second world war in Urupp again, courtesy of Mutti Merkel a la Ukrop cancer spread, shows how retarded the chikkken hawks and neo cohens have become as Merca itself gets ready to collapse in a tsunami of derivative filth. So better that USSANS grab their jaded helmets and dig some Somme like rat trenches around their local ghettos that to wet dream about glorious "Good Wars" and the spoils to be picked from the burnt ashes of Urupp and Mother Russia one more time. It just aint gonna happen.
The food stamp glory days of the free lunch IOU petroscrip Saudi Mercan dollah are already circling the crud caked bowl of Merca's ignominioUS history.
Amen.
Uh... If we go down you guys better learn how to fight like men. Besides, we have about another year of the metrosexual mulatto in the whitehouse. Once he is out, we will put an actual man in there so we can start building bombs again. Its our number one export. And as far as your euro gay currency, who cares how pissy weak it becomes, excahnge rates will not matter, we will still be more than happy to export to you queers. Besides, we would only be fighting Germany. The rest of you are too busy buttfucking each other.
Jebadiah Bushlet or Hillbillie Klingon that's your happy meals choice for the crash. Enjoy!
Stavris is a Greek whose family was flung out by Ataturk and knows of what he speaks.
Otherwise...
'Yes, dead boring. Nothing to see here. Move on'. -- Putin.
Putin knows what he is talking about this IVAN STAVRIDIS (a Russia based Oligarch) is his contact with the people that he can rely on. Greek Refugees from 1922, note the Double Headed Eagle .
This JAMES STAVRIDIS may be a relation of the other one or close compatriot of Ivan Stavridis, Who knows, unless NSA tell us about it. (Check the facial features of both of them)
Would you like to BET for the OUTCOME? is the question.
And this is just a footnote:
"As recently noted by The Guardian's John Hooper, Greece is presently one of the few NATO members which abides by the requirement to spend at least 2 percent (2%) of its GDP on defense"
If that's the case, it wasn't rich tycoons who didn't pay their taxes that put Greece in its present predicament. It was the corporate welfare payments to the military industrial complex.