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After "Deal", Here's What's Next For Greece
Now that Greece has capitulated and offered up its sovereignty in what can only be described as an unconditional surrender to Berlin and Brussels, you might be curious as to what the most likely next steps are for Greece, its government, and its people.
For reference, here is a quick summary courtesy of Bloomberg:
WHAT’S NEXT?
- The Greek govt is set to renew a bank holiday and capital controls decree which expires today
- The ECB’s GC is expected to discuss ELA for Greece’s banks
- Eurogroup meeting later today will work on Greece’s short-term needs and discuss bridge financing
- Greece has accepted to legislate on 4 action points by Thursday July 16, and another two by July 22, according to Malta’s PM Muscat
- Then Greece would come before the Eurogroup and euro- area member states would decide to open or close the needed negotiations that would let the ESM to disburse funds, Muscat says
- Dutch PM Rutte says it could take weeks to negotiate Greek ESM aid deal
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR GREECE’S BANKS?
- Greek banks are to be recapitalized by Greek asset fund and Tsipras says the deal protects the stability of the banking system
- ELA will stay in place all the while that another bailout is in the pipeline, Mizuho’s Peter Chatwell says in e-mailed comments
- ECB ELA will most likely stay in place until at least Wednesday, pending Greek ability to legislate the list of prior actions, Oxford Economics says in a note
WHAT ABOUT TSIPRAS AND SYRIZA?
- Support at Wednesday’s vote from Greece’s pro-Europe parties will come at a cost, when the timing is right, Barclays says
- It makes more sense for those parties to let PM Tsipras bear the political cost of capital controls while triggering elections would make default inevitable, plunging the country into a complete paralysis for the next 30 days
- Don’t entirely rule out a coalition partner change (with To Potami), and believe this situation will eventually lead to new elections after the summer
- A new unity govt or an early election very possible, Rabobank says
- Given political fractures in Greece, passage of the proposal through parliament is far from certain, Richard Cochinos, strategist at Citigroup, says in client note
- Decent likelihood of a Greek cabinet reshuffle; govt could possibly fold on reforms
- Tsipras may seek to expel those opposed to a deal with creditors from the party as he no longer commands a majority in parliament, Reuters said, citing people familiar
- “Constructive” centrist parties will likely continue to support the government coalition, Barclays says
- Snap elections necessary but can’t take place now, Greece’s Labor minister Skourletis says
WHAT ABOUT ITS CREDITORS?
- Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovakia, Estonia and Finland all need parliamentary approval to open negotiations on a new Greek program, an EU official said last week, while France’s Hollande said French National Assembly to vote on the deal on Wednesday
- While Marcel Fratzscher, president of the DIW economic institute, says it will be very difficult to sell the deal to German voters and Germany’s Greens say the deal means Greece will be stuck in a recession, a govt lawmaker said it is likely the German coalition will approve the deal
- Rutte says he’s unhappy he has to break an electoral promise to Dutch constituents on no further Greece aid
- The deal is so tough there’s a better than even chance that the Finnish parliament will authorize the negotiations, Berenberg’s Holger Schmieding writes in e- mailed comment
- Even if a deal can eventually be reached to keep Greece in the euro area, there will be long-term consequences, the damage done to relations between France and Germany may prove irredeemable while Germany’s suggestion Greece be granted a short term exit from the single currency shatters the principle that euro-area membership is irrevocable, Oxford Economics says
IS THERE ANY AGREEMENT ON RESTRUCTURING GREECE’S DEBT?
- Over the weekend, an IMF source told Reuters said that if other creditors couldn’t agree on a haircut, grace periods on interest payments could be combined with lower rates and extended maturities
- Tsipras said the negotiations had managed to gain restructuring while Merkel confirmed interest-payment grace periods and longer maturities will “be discussed once there is a successful evaluation of the new Greek program”
WHAT ABOUT GREXIT?
- Tsipras says summit outcome averts collapse of banking system
- Risks of a Greek exit have reduced in the very short term as the ECB should remain supportive as long as prior actions are passed in Parliament by Wednesday and talks are headed in the right direction, Barclays says
- The chances of a Grexit have now fallen below 50%, UBS WM write
- The deal and Wednesday’s vote may stretch the Greek govt to breaking point, forcing new elections; the month’s hiatus that would ensue while elections took place would almost certainly see Greece ejected from the euro area, Oxford Economics says
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Czar writes: The bank owns your house until you pay the interest and principle...remember?!
Coast: Actually that is not true, even after you pay off your mortgage and interest and property taxes, the bank still owns the house. Check your deed, you are forever a tenant. It says it right on the deed. The one that you signed. Bullshit isnt it?
You Greek an European faggots,
You proved that you only deserve to suck American (banker) cock.
Fuck Greeks and Fuck Europeans -- in the derogatory sense only, of course. I ain't no Euro faggot.
The goyim do deserve to get raped.
So you are an Americunt faggot then.
The US has been sucking on American (Zionist Banker) cock for a while then?
Greece only had about 5% or so I believe of deficit remaining (it was 15% or so 5 years ago) before this standoff. Servicing thier debt uses up about 5% of their tax revenues today, so is not the core of their problem. It's a tough problem for other Eurozone countries to help them transition to balance tax revenue to expenditures because even with the cuts, Greece will still be wealthier and have a higher GDP per capita than half the other Eurozone countries.
KNIXON=SIPRAS
"If a nigger sells his food stamps for crack .... you give him physical food .... if he sells the physical food for crack .... you put him on an IV .... and give him his crack by IV !" Socialist Solution
Your comment is racist and in extremely poor taste.
Tsipras folded because there never was any Grexit Plan B.
Him and his had preparred nothing.
The Greeks have more BMW's per capita than the Germans .... and longer vacations ?
WE have 24 work days a year vacation. Like most European countries. Its the LAW and we still outproduce Americans in half the time.
We have 99 week unemployment .... followed by permanent disability .... and the Chinese do the work ! LOL
Tsipras now felt the oaktree stick of Lagerchef Stauble, he lost his face and earned spanking all finmins watching and applauding behind walls. But before that, Tsipras fucked his voters, let say 10 mio citizens, 3 mio at least will fuck him back - uffffffff. He will need som very stable armour soon. The only one fucking Goldfinger&Saxophone and Prisonofficer Merker virtuosely enough is on some greek island holiday - wonder when he will be back to divide EU into E and U with his axe. So long franc, deutschmark, shilling, lira and pesto - take some nice moselwine from Staublehausen to digest better.
The Greeks have set a bad example .... for other marginal EU member states .... they must be taught a lesson .... or the EU .... becomes Baltimore with Muslims !
The deal still has to be approved by the Greek pariliament, which they will not do, especially with Tsipras trashing the agreement before the ink of his own signature is even dry. It looks like Greek banks remain closed for weeks, even under the most optimistic scenario. Looks like Grexit is still on.
If you think this is a done deal....forget about it..this is going to go on for a long long time....I still think Greece leaves....but they will try to get some more cash first..after all its all free now...everyone knows it will never be paid back....so whats a few billion between friends or is it enemies...
I went to my hairdresser for some stock tips .. and all I got was a greek haircut!
Of course all of this, once a banking collapse has been averted, can be easily undone by means of a military coup and a junta regaining national sovereignty (incl. but not limited to) over the (physical) assets that will be in a German bank KfW only on paper.
The folly of Berlin here might be that they think that a robbed and raped democracy will be playing by the same rulebook of warfare, taking orderly POWs and following Geneva convention....
"Asemiterical Warfare" .... like my clever Joos .... against the stoopid Mudslimes ?
What is next for Greeks?
Gas chambers. Free train rides. ....
Bought off.....too much time with the 'banksters' to 'hammer out' the deal. While in their company he was bought off. Several million Euros or dollars, sufficient to see & his family through the rest of there lives exiled somewhere was a small price for the 'banksters' to pay. It happens here in the U.S. of A. all the time. Politicians are bought off by promises, and true to form, the promises are kept....they have to be. The crooks are rightous to their word. Again, a small price to pay for the benefits accrued to the corporations/banksters that pay for the 'help'. After the politicos leave office, their treasure awaits them, true to their word. It's the way of the world. Don't be so nieve to believe this does not happen. It happens even in the blaring lights & focus of the news media (somewhat complicate in the 'program'). EVERYTHING is now under control....& at the controls are the corporations/banksters/NWO advocates. So observeth us out here in 'fly-over' land.
There is a LOT that has to happen to prevent a Grexit. I suspect they just kicked the can a little further. I expect these last round of talks to collapse at the final hour, after the market has pumped itself up on rumors.... for an epic dump.
After watching how the Nazis treat Greece, what prospective EU member would wish to join?
The banksters install their technocrats and enslave the people. End of story.
Something about this deal smells Vichy.
After months of “negotiations” the ECB, IMF and Greek PM Tsipras got exactly what they wanted- as you aptly state “Greece has capitulated and offered up its sovereignty in what can only be described as an unconditional surrender to Berlin and Brussels”. Tsipras did the exact opposite of what Greeks voted for last Sunday, July 5, begging the obvious question, why did he call for the referendum in the first place? It appears that the EU austerity shindig has just started, as there are multiple Greece’s remaining in the EU- including Portugal, Italy, Spain and France, all plagued with stagnant/ declining economies, high unemployment, anemic job growth, austerity and increasing deficits. Working people in these countries should look to Greece as a guide to what the ECB/IMF has in store for them.
Greece is a warning too all...getting into debt over your means at any level can have serious consequences..
So, how long before they need moar?
A month?
A week?
What will they have left to sell out?
Sand! Get your sand here! Bring your own bucket!
Depends on where the sand is located, and who wants to buy or who is willing to make a 99 year lease . . .
(edit to add: What are the rules for NATO countries? Can they lease a military base to a non-NATO country?)
The solution for debt is more debt.
Btw , as I said before , the best strategy is to get MORE money from euroPeon central bank , get more debt and eventually ....
Refuse to pay.