This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

David Einhorn Says Varoufakis "Must Not Be Familiar With The Tyler Durden School Of Negotiation"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today everyone has chimed in to opine on what was, without doubt, the most historic weekend in European history: one in which we saw the Eurozone's true face when, despite not have a legal right to do so, Germany almost unilaterally expelled "temporarily" one of its core members. Now, it's David Einhorn's turn.

* * *

Last year, it appeared that Greece had finally turned the corner after years of suffering through imposed austerity and the resultant 25% collapse in GDP. Much like the Seahawks’ ill-fated decision to pass the ball at the end of Superbowl XLIX, instead of giving it to monster running back Marshawn Lynch, Greece snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by electing the populist anti-austerity, pro-debt-writedown, Syriza coalition.

Puerto Rico’s governor recently said of its own debt, “This is not about politics; it’s about math.” The math for Greece is easy: austerity hasn’t improved the economy and its debts are unsustainable. Knowing this, Syriza no longer wanted to play the “extend and pretend” game. Further, Greece’s recently resigned finance minister Yanis Varoufakis believed they wouldn’t have to. Mr. Varoufakis, who kept reminding everyone that he is a professor of game theory, believed that the European leaders would prefer to make concessions now rather than manage the disruption of a Greek default. He must not be familiar with the Tyler Durden school of negotiation: the first rule of using game theory is you do not talk about using game theory. What’s more obvious is that Syriza didn’t understand what the game is.

This is not about math; it’s about politics. Consider that the main difference between Greece and France is that France is a big fan of extend and pretend. And as long as France says it will pay, its bonds might yield just a bit more than Germany’s. Though Greece has a superficially unmanageable ratio of debt to GDP, the debt had been restructured so that there is little debt service burden for the next several years. Politically, European leaders prefer to leave the future problems in the future. Syriza’s refusal to play along is a problem not just for bondholders but also for those holding seats of power. The European leaders fear that if Syriza can claim even a moral victory, it will inspire other European countries to oust their current leaders in favor of populist governments who campaign on the promise of debt repudiation.

Though Mario Draghi promised he would do whatever it takes to save the euro, that doesn’t include lifting a finger to assist Greece financially or in any way signal that the ECB has Greece’s back. Just days prior to the January elections, Mr. Draghi announced that the ECB would exclude Greece from quantitative easing for at least six months. Doing whatever it takes is proving to be a conditional promise, as denying Greece access to the capital markets is a key tenet of the European strategy to pressure Syriza.

For anyone still missing the joke, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda summarized the view of the global central planners when he said, " trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.’ Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction.” Perception supplants reality. The moment leaders (or markets) start making it about the math, gravity comes into play.

The result is that Europe is unwilling to allow Syriza a face-saving compromise, even if that means Greece collapses and the rest of Europe suffers. At this writing, Syriza has capitulated by proposing a deal which leaves Greece with even more austerity than when negotiations began and no actual debt forgiveness. This might not be enough, as the grand goal of the European  negotiators appears to be to discourage other countries from electing populists.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:29 | 6307850 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

Cui bono?

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:36 | 6307884 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

"what was, without doubt, the most historic weekend in European history"

 

Piss off.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:37 | 6307891 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

Varoufakis was given a choice...resign or be suicided.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:48 | 6307934 centerline
centerline's picture

He can hand the script to the next guy as well (or have it carved into his tombstone).

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:13 | 6308024 tmosley
tmosley's picture

And here I thought he was going to talk about the scene where Tyler spit blood all over Lou and got him to provide all sorts of things for Fight Club.

Greatly abbreviated in the movie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YBJPCwGwAc Sorry for the German. Youtube USA is fucked.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:22 | 6308056 Felino De Gattis
Felino De Gattis's picture

"Extend and pretend" is not gonna work if you enjoy an unanimous SD rating, practice capital control, your 10-year bond yield is between 15 and 20%, and have a long history of manipulating statistical data.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:44 | 6308136 Manthong
Manthong's picture

My idea of a successful negotiation.. the Greeks should try it :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oKwg6W05MU

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:24 | 6308272 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Math makes my head hurt.

 

So does politics.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 19:33 | 6308510 Luc X. Ifer
Luc X. Ifer's picture

Gun-point theory beats the crap out of game theory :)

Actually this is what really happened. Certainly they were threatened with execution in case of the need to resort to a military coup d'etat like in Persia 1953 - almost identical context.

"Rumbles of military coup as Greek workers demand end to EU austerity":
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/07/04/pers-j04.html

"CIA admits role in 1953 Iranian coup":
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/19/cia-admits-role-1953-irania...

Certainly Varoufakis preferred to take care of family business then having his family to pick-up his corpse after hanging on a public square after a masquerade of a process ...

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 21:33 | 6308884 Bumpo
Bumpo's picture

He may have left to protect his family. The threat of others suffering for your actions is much harder than taking the hit yourself.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 21:41 | 6308922 Luc X. Ifer
Luc X. Ifer's picture

most likely

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 22:42 | 6309147 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Nah man, he left the country on a vacation.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 22:53 | 6309196 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Since when are people stealing my avatar??

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 06:47 | 6309919 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Because you don't deserve it?

(Reminder: fight club)

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:03 | 6307981 EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

Game Theory is bullshit. It assumes that everyone makes purely rational and self-interested choices (i.e. nobody is courageous or honorable). This is obviously not true. Game Theory is for the birds.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:06 | 6307995 813kml
813kml's picture

Gun Theory usually gets results.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:16 | 6308035 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

Gun theory will be used by the PTB if needed.

This article misses the point.  The game theory was not aimed at the EU/bankers it was aimed at the greek people.

The game started before he was ever appointed into his position.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:32 | 6308086 janus
janus's picture

enter LOVE theory:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnM66YKHYec

some kinda druid dude/

liftin the veil/

...some call it majik/

the search for the grail,

janus

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:05 | 6308203 villainvomit
villainvomit's picture

The Feral Reserve knows about TD......The first rule of the feral reserve is that you talk about price stability and preserving the value of the dollar when in fact you do the opposite....

 

Hmmmm....wonder if the feral reserve knows Gun Theory ????????

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:26 | 6308286 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

... don't forget "job creation" is what The Bernank used to say was one of his jobs.

 

Gafaw...gafaw...gafaw.....

 

Anyone who believes anything these Big Time Bankers says deserves what he/she gets.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 21:00 | 6308755 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Most of the gains in the political spectrum are from the sub-category of Nailgun Theory.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:58 | 6308185 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

Bullshit or not, it most certainly does not work when you want to lose and the opposition knows it. Syriza are liberals and didn't want to leave the Eurozone or the EU. Therefore they were bluffing in their "game" and everybody knew it. The whole "negotiating" process was a surreal joke.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 19:26 | 6308488 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Game Theory is bullshit. It assumes that everyone makes purely rational and self-interested choices (i.e. nobody is courageous or honorable).

This is nonsense.  If courage and honor result in a maximization of self interest, then game theory says they will be adopted.  In short, all it means is that at some point of a relationship, someone will attempt to screw over someone else...  this is why cartels do not last forever.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 20:23 | 6308644 Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

Agreed. Courage and honor arent the problem with game theory. people are stupid angry irrational beasts who do whatever they want regardless of logic behind their decisions.

 

A guy in a cartel does not screw his boss because of honor, he does it because he believes he has something to gain from it.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 19:50 | 6308560 Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Well said, Game Theory is a bunch of crap.

 

 I love the explanation of the prisoners dilemma, they never include the people outside the jail!  that will kill your entire family if you rat.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 20:14 | 6308619 NeoRandian
NeoRandian's picture

On the contrary. Game Theory is a wonderful framing device. If you do not follow the rules of Game Theory, then you aren't serious, aren't rational, and we can ignore/kill you and feel good about ourselves for doing it.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 20:59 | 6308751 FlacoGee
FlacoGee's picture

Game theory is for ivory tower douche bags who can't understand how the world functions so they try to understand it by making a theory.

Which oviously fails because it is assumes the adults in the room "play" within a "box".

It assumes rational players (for the most part).

How quaint...  It appears Varoufakis got an eye opening experience when entering a real world negotiation.  

It is doublful he has gotten the taste of cock out of his mouth yet...   Keep brushing my friend.  

 

 

 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 22:44 | 6309160 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Game theory is viable.  It can be applied very successfully.  You just have to know if it fits each human component or not.  One theory or another applies to everyone most of the time.

I didn't say it would be easy.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:40 | 6308343 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

Either that, or people he cares about are under the gun. Tsiprias as well. Were I an evil overlord, I would involve anybody they care about in very painful and wrong ways to help them come around to my way of thinking.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:45 | 6307919 Lea
Lea's picture

"what was, without doubt, the most historic weekend in European history"

He means in the (short) EU history. In Europe, i.e, the millenia-old continent, we've had much, much worse. And quite a lot better too.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:00 | 6307962 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Even going from the very very recent Lisbon Treaty (2009) that still doesn't cut it.

 

Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi being forced out of office by Merkel and replaced with an EU Technocrat was a far FAR bigger deal than anything that has happened in Greece this weekend.

Schauble making threats about Grexit is just talk. Talk is cheap.

 

May I remind you that the EU actually deposed a democratically elected Prime Minister of a G7 country and replaced him with an unelected technocrat in order to ram though EU reforms. Remember? That is WAAAAY beyond anything that happened this week. In fact NOTHING happened this weekend, just more hot air.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 22:46 | 6309167 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

This ain't over.   Wait for it.

"I told you something happened 12/21/2012 but no... you didn't listen.  Something happened.  Just because we aren't aware of it doesn't mean it didn't happen.  So now look at things...." ~ me

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:52 | 6307941 youngman
youngman's picture

I bet during the ERA of the Black Plague..there were some pretty shitty weekends.....jus sayin

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:42 | 6307911 booboo
booboo's picture

as a scare tactic it is an utter failure since unfortunately those in charge in a given piss poor beggar nation don't get to choose the electorate and the electorate will always vote for someone else to pay the bill. The politicians created a Frankenstein electorate now they have to deal with them.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:30 | 6307852 ted41776
ted41776's picture

so they ask the people what they want done, and then do the opposite.... what could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:39 | 6307903 813kml
813kml's picture

Good thing Greece doesn't have a bunch of idle youth that could cause problems.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:44 | 6307921 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

What are they gonna do? Post some you tube videos of a barking dog......again. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:50 | 6307936 813kml
813kml's picture

Bad things happen when you come between a man and his money.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:54 | 6307947 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

True. But, we were talking about the Greek youth. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:03 | 6307977 813kml
813kml's picture

Don't underestimate, the youth showed up en masse to support the referendum.  Even if they don't have much money in banks to be hurt by haircuts they probably have family who do.

Old men make the rules up until the time they are dragged into the street.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:08 | 6307999 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, enjoy your Golden Dawn, as that's what you're gonna get for their efforts. Activation energy can be quite a bitch at times.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 20:17 | 6308628 NeoRandian
NeoRandian's picture

Honestly, you are either a nationalist or complicit in the looting of your nation to fund Elysiums you will never be admitted into. This applies to all people of the world now.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 21:38 | 6308906 Bumpo
Bumpo's picture

Sounds like Golden Dawn is the next step. Obviously cracking heads is in order at this point.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:09 | 6308010 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Holding my breath. Call 911. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:21 | 6308047 813kml
813kml's picture

That explains it, lack of oxygen to the brain is affecting your imagination.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:32 | 6308092 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I was not around in the 60s but I heard that is when the youth starting giving it to the man. The man has done OK, no? I would suspect the youth of today are bigger pussies than their ancestors.  So, in reality I am not overly optimistic about a bunch of 20 something icrap toting rebels putting an end to this mess. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:52 | 6308163 813kml
813kml's picture

They won't put an end to this mess but they could get the ball rolling.  American youths are too ignorant to know their enemy but the Greeks are not.  A possible haircut and the existence of Golden Dawn guarantees that there will be protests and some violence.  If things got bad enough that the UN/NATO sent in "peacekeeping" forces to keep their puppets safe the Greek military might not like them overstepping their bounds and take matters into their own hands.

I'm not saying that a revolution will happen but I can see how it could.  Guns always make the rules.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:57 | 6308181 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Ever heard of the IRA or Sinn Fein?  Look over there...why it is me home country sucking on Euro titty! My Irish side of me is none to proud of that development. Alas, I must remain a realist. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:05 | 6308207 813kml
813kml's picture

Irish Catholic guilt allowed them swallow austerity like a good altar boy but I think Greeks have had enough.  This situation will happen in all the PIIGS, Greece is just first.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:23 | 6308265 813kml
813kml's picture

"One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."

Plato

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 01:17 | 6309593 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

I think the missing element in your analysis is that the motivated youth left the building long ago.  They might be waiters in Sweden or janitors in Germany, or they may have shipped out on a tanker, but they're not sitting in their mother's house waiting to see if Greece can get its act together.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:45 | 6307924 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

One UN police state, coming right up!

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:22 | 6308062 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Not yet

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 22:48 | 6309177 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Upvoted but...

apparently their youth are idle but not capable or so inclined to cause problem. 

They could but they don't.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:40 | 6307904 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Sounds exactly like the Republican Party in the US...

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:22 | 6308054 Bullwinkle42
Bullwinkle42's picture

Hey! Bizarro World worked for George in Seinfeld, did it not?

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:32 | 6307864 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

The moment leaders (or markets) start making it about the math, gravity comes into play.

Which is exactly why they need to be forced to make it about math, if we had any sort of independent media that is.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:37 | 6307877 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Brian Williams was told there would be no math, nor history, nor geography.

Hair and make-up? Yes. 

The people don't want to be confused with facts.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:46 | 6307925 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Banksters never want to be confronted with facts.  The only "fact" they want to recognize is that the loans they make are fully recoverable and held to maturity.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:57 | 6307956 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The current bidding on one FDR silver dime starts at two U.S. dollars and fifty cents MINIMUM.

"Heads to fifty bucks from there."

So "bail out your buddies bit to hell with Tennesee!"???

Good luck with that.

I say QE4 in a matter of days.

"They'll print their way out" as they always do.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:46 | 6308141 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I think the Fed has too much hubris to propose QE4 this year.  They'll go through with raising the Fed Funds rate in Sept and the markets will be in full disarray before they bring out the "white knight" sometime during the first half of 2016.  

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:43 | 6307915 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Shut the fuck UP!

Didn't you hear: the Troika has just invented ANTI-GRAVITY.

This changes EVERYTHING.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTq6Tofmo7E

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:00 | 6307966 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

LOL!

 

Brbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrbrb!

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:02 | 6307974 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Too bad that doesn't help us Earthlings.

"We have too much gravity" sad to say.

We do have cars that can go in excess of 200 mph "comfortably" though apparently...

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:33 | 6307865 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I'm sure all the people at NASA, civil engineers, architects, programmers, mechanics, machinists, carpenters all agree...fuck math.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:42 | 6307914 centerline
centerline's picture

Hmmm, I wonder why there aren't many of these sorts in political positions.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:34 | 6307868 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

It's not about math, it's about leverage, and since syriza was not prepared for, nor had the inclination to grexit, they had none.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:54 | 6307943 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Tsipras challenged the structure of the EU, wanting to reform it in such a way so they'd fit.

Schauble needed to change the structure of the EU, wanting to reform it in such a way they could never achieve at the ballot box (fiscal union).

So, two sides both needed to change the structure of the EU. The strong side played along while giving the weak just enough room to create the activation energy to create the mandate for change, destroying the weak in the process, as they've served their purpose.

Varoufakis might understand game theory, what he didn't understand was the game itself.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:22 | 6308058 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

There is a sating in engineering. "Book smart, field dumb". Most professors are idiots in the field.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:22 | 6308059 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

There is a sating in engineering. "Book smart, field dumb". Most professors are idiots in the field.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:06 | 6307871 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture
Must Not Be Familiar With The Tyler Durden School Of Negotiation


Varoufakis underestimated the opposition. But he had the balls for the fight.
Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:10 | 6308011 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I think Stalin referred to his kind as "Useful Idiots."

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 03:23 | 6308077 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

I think Varoufakis overestimated his "ally" Tsipras and Syriza.

Even Leonidas needed the 300.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:12 | 6308016 agent default
agent default's picture

I tend to think he applied game theory to another field altogether.  By playing crazy and pissing about he brought the situation to a total stalemate, thereby pushing the EU to send a contemptible ultimatum to Greece.  This has thoroughly exposed the EU and the Eurozone for the debt Gulag and kleptocracy they are.  It doesn't matter what happens to Greece from now on.  The true nature of the EU has been laid bare for everyone to see and people don't like the grotesque bankster vampire they  see.  The defeat is total.  The Eurocrats and the Euro are finished no matter how far they try to kick the can and pretend they are solvent.  The politics and the impressions created are too totalitarian and horrific for people to handle.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:34 | 6307873 cassotto
cassotto's picture

i wish i was (math) smart, then i would not have become a trader

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:00 | 6307965 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

As a rule of thumb, only invest in things that you understand very well.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:35 | 6307875 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Mr. Varoufakis, who kept reminding everyone that he is a professor of game theory, believed that the European leaders would prefer to make concessions now rather than manage the disruption of a Greek default. He must not be familiar with the Tyler Durden school of negotiationthe first rule of using game theory is you do not talk about using game theory. What’s more obvious is that Syriza didn’t understand what the game is.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it Y-Anus lovers. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:01 | 6307969 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Hey junckers. Truth hurts, eh? Wait a month or so and France will reveal some populist windbag that you can hang your hopes upon. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:32 | 6308088 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

...well, not as much as jumping on a bicycle with the seat missing, but, sure - it hurts just the same.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:37 | 6308116 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

 Oh, it's all right. I'm sure that we can handle this situation maturely, just like the responsible adults that we are. Isn't that right, Mr... Poopy Pants? 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:46 | 6308140 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

+1 for the Naked Gun reference

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:35 | 6307881 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

"Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda summarized the view of the global central planners when he said, " trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.’ Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction.”

 

comedy gold. from a Nip.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:36 | 6307882 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

WE CAN FLY!

Go ahead: jump you fuckers!

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:59 | 6307979 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

He flew too close to the sun, melted his wings, fell into the sea and then was nail-gunned by TPTB...

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:36 | 6307883 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I had wondered if talking about game theory was part of the game.

The other bit here is that the game could still be in play. What we have here is a static snapshot. This ain't how it is.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:58 | 6307960 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I believe he thought it was. And it might have worked to his benefit, if he'd only understood that the game was about the EU, not Greece.

Yet another well engineered Maginot Line, if you ask me.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:13 | 6308021 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

What if you talking about them talking about game theory is part of the game? Oh shit, now I'm in on it too!

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:36 | 6307886 beavertails
beavertails's picture

Game theory goes out the door when your opponent can print as many chips as they want.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:38 | 6307893 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Fat Tony and his two-headed coin agree!

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:39 | 6307902 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Some asshole may have overlooked that fact. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:17 | 6308233 krage_man
krage_man's picture

it is Dictator Game - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dictator_game

 

In the dictator game, the first player, "the dictator", determines how to split an endowment (such as a cash prize) between himself and the second player. The second player, "the recipient", simply receives the remainder of the endowment left by the dictator. The recipient's role is entirely passive and has no input into the outcome of the game. As a result, the dictator game is not formally a proper game (as the term is used in game theory). To be a proper game, every player's outcome must depend on the actions of at least one other's. Since the dictator's outcome depends only on his own actions, this situation is one of decision theory. Despite this formal point, the dictator game is used in the game theory literature as a degenerate game. This game has been used to test the homo economicus model of individual behavior: if individuals were only concerned with their own economic well being, dictators would allocate the entire good to themselves and give nothing to the recipient.

 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:36 | 6307887 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Lives were threatened.

Best way to negotiate.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:05 | 6307991 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

If you're going to stoop to that level in negotiating, you need to offer a package deal:  Keep the big, fat bribe and your life, or take a dirtnap.  You can't let them do your bidding and not take the bribe.  That way, if you get called out on trying to make somebody do something, as soon as that person starts squealing that they were threatened, you get to point out that they were, in fact, bribed.  It really muddies the waters.  If you are ever on the receiving end of such a negotiation tactic, you cannot spend a single penny of the bribe if you want to have an out, otherwise, you become the other person's creature. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:27 | 6308074 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

There is an old expression in Mexico: "plomo o plata" (lead or silver).

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:01 | 6308184 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Vatican bank account has been setup for the fag hairdresser with bad teeth.

Obozo got his account, and a nice mansion in Hawaii.

Vatican bank more corrupt than BIS.

A great cover for scumbags.

 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 22:56 | 6309210 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"If you're going to stoop to that level in negotiating, you need to offer a package deal:  Keep the big, fat bribe and your life, or take a dirtnap.  "

 

Exactly.

The target must be compromised.

 

True story:

Girl is invited to a big party at a secluded house by the guy that owns the place.

She gets picked up by him and taken over there.

Girl is raped by the guy late after the party has wound down and other people are blitzed or busy hooking up or pased out..

Deed done the girl of course wants to gtf outta there.

Guy says 'I'm too drunk to drive but I'll call ya a cab and pay for it.'

The guy that did the deed calls a taxi to take the drunk, raped girl away.

Taxi comes and the girl runs to go get in.

Guy comes out and leans into taxi -and gives the girl a twenty dollar bill.

Girl goes to the police station in the taxi and files charges.

Taxi driver is hauled into the case and brought to testify as to the time/place/etc.

First question the defence asks is if the taxi driver saw the woman take any money from the man accused of raping her.

He of course answers 'yes.'

Defendant claims girl is a whore and that he paid her for sex.

Girl admits to taking money after sex.

COMPROMISED.

Defendent NOT GUILTY.

 

I was only a child at the time.

I saw every goddamned thing.

A COMPROMISED Witness cannot properly defend themselves.

Presumption of innocence blah fucking blah shred of doubt blah fucking blah blah blah... 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:39 | 6307899 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

German math: Fuck You, pay me.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:42 | 6308129 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Greek math: Fuck me, pay me.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:41 | 6307910 BoPeople
BoPeople's picture

Personally, in negotiations I prefer to tell people exactly what I am going to do and why and then do it. Those schooled by Machiavelli seem to believe that I must be lying for a purpose, act accordingly and tend to be thrown off a bit when I do what I said.

The issue is that you must actually be willing to pull the trigger... and must have the power to do so. Yani did not have the power ... bummer for the world.

(so much for my monthly ego blast ... lol)

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:08 | 6307997 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I agree. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:35 | 6308099 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It's not just in negotiations.  In my experience a huge majority of people just assume everyone is a liar.  That is why so many on ZH probably feel like outcasts and can't figure out why.  They don't understand they are not only surrounded by liars but entire countries of people expecting to be lied to.  Don't question if something is wrong with yourself for refusing to be lied to.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:21 | 6308257 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

I think he was negotiating for a guy (Tsipras) who wouldn't back him up

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:42 | 6307912 jarana
jarana's picture

Yanis and Tsiripas really know shit about fuck...

or how to sit down and shut the fuck up...

or...

I don't know.

I'll call my GoldmanSachs advisor.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:43 | 6307916 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Germany is less bankrupt so they hold all the cards? How cute.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:46 | 6307928 centerline
centerline's picture

Yup.  And Greece got bitched slapped (pimp handed).

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:47 | 6307931 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

When you hold the cards and you keep hitting blackjack it is amazing people still come to the table. Some folks are just not that bright. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:43 | 6307918 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Europe isn't stupid. we prefer war above giving up sovereignity and social rights.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:49 | 6307932 jarana
jarana's picture

What a holy piece of collectivist shit.

Europe does not even exist as a conscious entity with the ability to have any preference about nothing.

Ask Yanis for a lesson. He's a public employee, so it's free.

My ass.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:02 | 6307976 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Umm... I think that perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in that statement?

But I'm very happy to see someone else pointing out the absurdity of collectives "thinking/acting/speaking/believing/[insert human trait here]."

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:08 | 6308004 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

You see, jarana, there's a whole world between social behaviour and printing money. To be discovered soon.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:47 | 6307930 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

#thisisacoup

Who thinks this gets through the Greek government?

_____

Ot - if you need a laugh:

http://www.debka.com/article/24722/Israel-merges-IDF-elite-units-to-form...

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:12 | 6308020 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Has anyone in ISIS even utterred the word "Israel" to date?

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:33 | 6308096 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

probably.

like 'hey fellas, popping over to israel to get some cash, sat phones and bullets, brb"

that sort of thing.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:20 | 6308253 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Game theory- Jewish dilemna= free ham

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:52 | 6307942 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The collective progs are attempting to canoe themselves against a raging white water river basen.

Using windmills and solar power has turned the canoe backwards towards deadly rocks. The alternative energy canoe cannot avoid the impending waterfall drop. 

Moral of Story: Some salmon never make it upstream during the final race of their lives. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:54 | 6307945 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

I think that Varoufakis just overestimated the support of his own party and Tsipras.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:19 | 6308248 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Yep, I think Yanis was willing to go all the way. Tsipras and the rest were not. Have fun in serfdom

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:55 | 6307949 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Why do they have to flood their peices with nonsense pop culture like Peter Pan?

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:57 | 6307958 youngman
youngman's picture

Its all about the math..and that is what is so scary...these politicians know it too...but they can just play the part...as long as they keep getting their spoils from the printed fiat..they will keep smiling and telling lies....its the next persons problem...just kick the fookin can baby

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 16:58 | 6307961 Financial Paparazzi
Financial Paparazzi's picture

The real reason behind Varoufakis´ failure as a negotiator is... His Ego!

http://www.atlanticperspective.com/off-the-radar/varoufakis-game-theory-mistake-and-why-he-was-wrong

The Greek Einstein got ahead of himself...

 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:05 | 6307990 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I bet he sees the world as a much bigger, very different place than he did before. He went from trying to solve a seemingly tiny problem to getting beat-down by the whole of TPTB.

Question is, just what did he take away from all of this? (especially given the family he married into)

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:04 | 6307982 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The game is different if you are a Zionist bankster stooge like V.

That game is plunder and enslavement.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:08 | 6307998 indaknow
indaknow's picture

Another bunch of politicians promising shit, gets themselves elected, has the people behind them.......and turns around and does the opposite!

Wow, really surprising....SCUM, the whole lot of them.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:10 | 6308012 Spungo
Spungo's picture

World War 1? Nope, that's not the most historic. The most historic weekend is about which faces will be printed on tiny pieces of paper and what the name of that paper will be. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:14 | 6308025 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I would agree, except that there will be no paper involved.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 19:11 | 6308426 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

i imagine Dunkirk was a shiity weekend

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:10 | 6308014 cookies anyone
Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:11 | 6308018 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

What actually happened on the ground in Greece today?  I presume nothing got passed?  Even though the Hedge here has been wrong on every single turn of the story, they should stick with it till its passed and over.  No other news outlet will give any coverage to it...

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:16 | 6308032 fromthinair
fromthinair's picture

It is The Plan B, Tyer Durden. And, now you are responsible... It is not about the issues anymore to you ... zh, you just want to win and want one of your favorite doom and gloom scenario play out. you are not alone... somehow everyone is fighting a battle, seemingly different ones. Big people and anonymous alike will keep talking ... and all your equity goes up this moring ... read it as -> you liked the events over the weekend and are enjoying the wealth that accrues from such events.

http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:20 | 6308043 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Syriza thinks the game is "free stuff & services" , the banks think the game is "bondage" and a guaranteed revenue stream with growth, the game is over.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:21 | 6308048 Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

The "tell" that Tsipras was bluffing was when he kicked Varoufakis out because the Eurogroup didn't like him.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:22 | 6308052 Racer
Racer's picture

He underestimated the lengths psychopathic banksters will go to in order to steal money from the people

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:41 | 6308084 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I think David Einhorn does not understand the role of Varoufakis.

Yanis was not PLAYING TO WIN. He was playing to EXPOSE the SCAM.

And he did... he got them SO INCENSED they BLEW THEIR TOPS and NOW the world can see who Schauble and Diesel-Bloom REALLY ARE.  HE TAUNTED THEM TO THEIR FACES : YOU ARE A LOSING BUNCH OF SCAMMERS! 

He died politically but he made the world see what the EZ game of this oligarchy of technocratic aristocrats was. 

By being totally honest he showed his hand and said to them : I defy you to show yours' and they DID; they hung themselves to their OWN chord.

Now thaT is not TYLER's game of "there are no rules" fight club. Tyler is a predator and anarchist. That's fight club culture. 

Yanis is an ethical romantic. Magnificent loser. 

TO each his role.

Einhorn of course is an arrogant, predatory, oligarchical conquistador of Pax Americana culture.

Good luck to him.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:11 | 6308224 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Yanis was not PLAYING TO WIN. He was playing to EXPOSE the SCAM.

Really? The scam has already been exposed by countless people. Was this his I got the evidence that there was an inside job on 9/11 moment? Nope. So, if he was not playing to win...why the fuck was he playing?  He goes to the poker table with 20 bucks and can't afford to raise and has to fold. That is the game he was playing. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:23 | 6308267 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Are you being serious?

What has just happened has shaken the EU construct to its very foundations, and all you can say is: the scam has already been exposed...

I think you have not understood what a quantum jump psychologically, morally and politically (in that now democracy is burning in first world not in Iraq or Nam) that rings a bell in the minds of 3 billion first world citizens of Europe, USA and Japan  all those other nations etc. 

This is now out in the open that Greece like any other european country can become another Third world nation.

That is now not theory it is fact in Greece. Greece is not Zimbabwe or some country in a forgotten contineNt.

In Europe the penny is beginning to drop fast.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 23:45 | 6309391 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

Not so fast. Markets have to be calm for the Creditors/Banksters always. That's the mandates for their agents (Troika, Drahi, etc).

Where and when you have unorganized preys, the predators do not even bother with traps. Brute forces that smash ideals of democracy, etc will do. Much aided of course by mainstream media with a New Normal Journalism that push their Agendas.

Going forward, it does not matter whether Greece is a wasteland. Mission accomplished as markets will dance to a new narrative.

Einhorn understands markets and who are pulling the puppet strings. Preys in pains should not entertain delusions of a coming soon collapse. They are easy meals. It takes much more to skewer Predators.

 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:30 | 6308085 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Game Theory has been around a lot longer than the Tyler Durden School of Negotiation. Moreover, this is about math, and not politics. Mathematics rules the zero sum game that is being played, politically, and economically. Varoufakis played his cards as well as anyone would have IMO.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:10 | 6308218 krage_man
krage_man's picture

He could have been more politically savvy... 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 21:33 | 6308892 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

If there is not a warehouse full of Drachma's sitting around somewhere, then he did a piss poor job of playing the game.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:37 | 6308115 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Now we learn why Diebold ( other, turn them machines back on ) allowed the NO VOTE. We were delighted at the result which was what Merkel & Swastica Planned.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:42 | 6308128 adjudged
adjudged's picture

Varoufakis game theory: "OK, he has a full boat and I know it.  Yeah!  I just drew to an inside straight and missed it.  Watch me bluff him - - I am so excited!!

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 17:54 | 6308169 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

"The problem with educating stupid people was that they didn't know they were stupid. The same went for curing crazy people."

- Chuck Palahniuk*, "Phoenix"

*author of "Fight Club" if'n ye nae ken

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:33 | 6308316 joseJimenez
joseJimenez's picture

Like I always say; "Reason is no match for stupid"

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:09 | 6308214 itsallgreektome
itsallgreektome's picture

well, discourage other countries electing populists they did. (*winks @Spain).After seeing such a dreadful defeat of the Greek PM and an uncoditional surrender at the hands of our EU "partners", it has only two ways to  go from here.
Either disgust and reenforcing parties/movements and people against that kind of treatment all across South Europe, or fearing for everything seeing the beaten scarecrow that Greece was&will be made and heading for the "right" options.
Both of these ways will backfire to Germany, but I dont think neither Merkel or Schoible will have any regrets. They live in their happy little planet and it's all good there, as long as you feed the Morlocks once awhile. 

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:19 | 6308245 Seal
Seal's picture

Extend and pretend? what about the debt kiting scheme called US Treasury bonds bought with made up dollars by the Federal Reserve?

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 18:23 | 6308264 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Today we hear from David Einhorn and Timmy Geithner??

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 19:07 | 6308404 scatha
scatha's picture

Great gaming strategist? You are kidding me.

Yea it was setup Syriza electoral win was a Setup.

First you set up your negotiating positions . invite and arrest troika book and release, nationalize banks, pass all the laws in your manifesto.

Trigger their implementation every two weeks. Get MOA for loans from China and Russia for navy bases, sign gas/silk road deal, reconcile with Turkey about Cyprus, cut military spending to 1% from 2.4% and police spending, trigger their implementation every two weeks.

Arrest bankers oligarchs, introduce capital control.., dual currency with drachma peg for 5 years to euro so you do not have to change accounting. 

Start clock on Euro exit, declare default on all debts.

Invite separate EU countries for negotiations to Athens separately.

That what I call gaming. With all this and EU markets in turmoil  because of it you would have gotten what you wanted. Mr. Varoufakis.

but all of it was just a charade for Greek peasants As I repeated numerous times.

PODEMOS if you are not fake as Syriza hear me out.

Mon, 07/13/2015 - 19:10 | 6308414 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

The almost walkout at 6am is easy on the yes.... but I wonder what sort of threat they put to Grease to swallow this shit sandwich? Grease is going to be mulch to European Banks.

It is not even a bad deal. it is an in-your-face fuck you throat stomp.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!