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"Everything Is Awesome" In China - Retail Sales, Industrial Production, & GDP All Mysteriously Crush Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Retail Sales increased 10.6% YoY (smashing expectations of a 10.2% YoY Gain); Industrial Production rose 6.8% (crushing expectations of a 6.0% YoY gain); and the big daddy of goalseeked data, China GDP managed to rise 7.0% (comfortably beating expectations of just 6.8% but still the lowest since Q1 2009). Now it is up to the markets to decide if good data is bad news because it gives the government less excuses to throw more "measures" at the market; or is good data, good news as it "proves" the economic fundamentals underlying massively exponential gains in Chinese stocks (and excessive valuations compared to the rest of the world) are justified. When the data hit Chinese stocks were at the lows of the day, and for now, it appears good data is bad news as stocks are not bouncing at all.

 

 

Why would we ever think that?

Everything Is Awesome!!!

 

One quick question... What exactly are the Chinese suddenly producing so much of? Because its not steel, its not houses, and its not being exported overseas...

 

Do not question this!!

  • *CHINA'S GDP 'NOT OVERESTIMATED', NBS SHENG SAYS

China - we are going to need some worse data than that...

 

*  *  *

Finally here is Cornerstone Macro with a less 'optimistic' look ahead...

  • PBOC easing hasn’t worked b/c investment and credit are bubbles, lowering demand for credit and slowing investment, Cornerstone Macro economists led by Nancy Lazar write in note.
  • Expect China official real GDP by 4Q to have 5% handle
  • Inventory destocking likely to be drag on 2H growth; industrial production will probably slow further
  • Implications of Chinese hard landing incl. slower global growth; risk of disappointing multinational earnings; inflation and rates, both lower for longer; continued decline in commodity prices; rising USD trend
  • Potential ramifications for China incl. PBOC continues to ease, cutting base lending rate to zero from 4.85%, loweringRRR to 6% from 18.5%; weaker outbound investment, which presents problem for other EMs; weaker FDI into China; downturn in employment, retail sales; social unrest and geopolitical turmoil

One last thing - we're going to need a lot more betterer data...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:09 | 6313759 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Mortimer!  We're back!

(Subract 5% from all Chinese data and you have comparable numbers to the US.  Subract 10% and you have comparable numbers to reality.)

 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:09 | 6313762 Ultimate_Warrior
Ultimate_Warrior's picture

Started working at home! It is by far the best job I have ever had. I just recently purchased a Brand new BMW since getting a check for $5476 this 8-week past. I began this 10 months ago and I am now bringing home at least $87 per hour. I work through this link. Go here... www.earnmore9.com

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:10 | 6313767 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Sun Tzu would say...

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:17 | 6313787 Closet Boy
Closet Boy's picture

"Man who scratch bottom should not bite fingernails."

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:05 | 6313927 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Any clown can make money in a bull market.

It takes conviction to make money in bear markets.

These fuckers are toast!

 

Thu, 07/16/2015 - 01:55 | 6318484 Laowei Gweilo
Laowei Gweilo's picture

for what it's worth, my anecdotes point to a bit of a factory rebound ..... don't get mad =( just saying, there could be a little truth to these numbers

 

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 00:33 | 6314086 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

"Man kicked in scrotum left holding the bag."

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:23 | 6313808 erikaappleihzyjtyeg
erikaappleihzyjtyeg's picture

Looks disgusting.

Should make great soup.

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 06:46 | 6314363 rogerrabbithole
rogerrabbithole's picture

I checked that link, but being a fluff boy is SOOOO lSt decade. Gotta pass bro.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 01:29 | 6314136 Money Boo Boo
Money Boo Boo's picture

the only thing awesome about China is the amount of perfectly good toe jam that goes to waste!!

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:11 | 6313770 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Because in China if the government says it will be 7% growth ... then it will be 7% growth.

Pity the poor clown that reports growth from their region below 7% ... would love to see the province by province breakdown .... 7's across the board I would bet.

Amazing how accurate those govt forecasters are. The wimps on Wall Street could learn a few lessons no doubt.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:11 | 6313942 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Jack Welch did it for 20 years. Not only is he not in prison, he is treated like some sort of legend. Cocksucker!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 00:03 | 6314043 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

They even named a thing after that "Oxygen Thief"

Verb 1. welch - cheat by avoiding payment of a gambling debt
welsh cheat, rip off, chisel - deprive somebody of something by deceit; "The con-man beat me out of $50"; "This salesman ripped us off!"; "we were cheated by their clever-sounding scheme"; "They chiseled me out of my money"
Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:11 | 6313771 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

The rabbit hole knows no bottom.  Far past the time when there remains no credibility to any government's data, they will continue to publish whatever is deemed politically expedient to perpetuate the ago-driven ramps.  Inflate or die; no liquidation can ever be allowed. 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:41 | 6313864 Vullsain
Vullsain's picture

Does China have some bridges to sell me to!!!!!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 00:50 | 6314104 quartshort
quartshort's picture

How about a ghost city? I read somewhere they "plan" to do this in AZ... start digging Tylers.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:13 | 6313777 gwar5
gwar5's picture

The world has gone completely mad.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:34 | 6313832 remain calm
remain calm's picture

Agree, have to think if Mother Theresa were alive today, she would lie too. It's wong to be right. "When things get bad you just have to lie."

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 01:08 | 6314121 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Mother Theresa's job was to increase the number of Catholics by any means necessary.  Poor women having children, now that is such an honorable calling, just above protecting child molester priests.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:45 | 6314011 q99x2
q99x2's picture

On Q99X2 things are running pretty good. We didn't even have any guys fallin in love with other guys butts or anything like that.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:13 | 6313778 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Even with the bullshit numbers, that trend isn't looking good.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:14 | 6313781 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Silly

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:14 | 6313783 FPearl602
FPearl602's picture

Who gives a shit? Ayn Rand called it in 1957.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:28 | 6313826 Dixie Flatline
Dixie Flatline's picture

She thought she was illustrating their folly, while handing them the playbook.

Cuffy Meigs don't DO IT!

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:15 | 6313785 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

... just wait 'till the companies start to announce their "earnings" ...

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:29 | 6313830 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Earnings?  Companies need earnings?  Don't change the rules mid-stream.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:38 | 6313858 remain calm
remain calm's picture

They will just fabricate those. Off balance sheet shenanigans, tax adjustment, currency asjustments they will just make them look good. And why not? They won't go to jail. 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:16 | 6313788 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Hmmmm, must have outsourced and shipped all of our statisticians over to China...

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:27 | 6313820 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

No.  China recognizes that they are the leader in manufacturing but that the US is the leader in services.  They have contracted the BLS to fudge their numbers.  You need real experts to do that well.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 04:21 | 6314250 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

No. Home grown under the CCP we meet the quotas or else. 'They' at one point, about 1997, asked HK statisticians to advise them--but that didn't last long, as the HKers, were gobsmacked at what they were asked to do.  

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:26 | 6313799 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

The amazing part of this bullshit is, they actually think we believe it. Historians sure as hell better be taking notes...

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 04:14 | 6314247 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

Since 1949

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:22 | 6313804 erikaappleihzyjtyeg
erikaappleihzyjtyeg's picture

YoY Industrial Production is down to the 2008/2009 time frame.

Something got past the data minders.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:49 | 6313886 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

We know from 2008 that revenue numbers can be fabricated.

US demand is WAY off that's for sure.

Guess we''ll save to wait and see how oil prices do tomorrow.

If they drop twenty dollars a barrel "for no particular reason" in say...FIVE MINUTES...then we'll know something is amiss!

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:23 | 6313806 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! 

I am the great and powerful OZ!"

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:23 | 6313809 starman
starman's picture

Howly chit! 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:32 | 6313838 DOT
DOT's picture

Hellava line up tonight, Tyler!

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:53 | 6313897 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Where the fuck is Hugh Hendry when you need him, btw?  Not the new Hugh, the old Hugh.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:55 | 6313901 MrNoItAll
MrNoItAll's picture

CHINA'S GDP 'NOT OVERESTIMATED'.  No, just intentionally overstated.  What?!  You want the truth?

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:56 | 6313903 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

Does this mean all the poorly made plastic Chinese crap in the dollar stores is now going to be cheaper? Great! More useless plastic Chinese crap that breaks 5 minutes after you open the package....The land fills will grow at a faster rate now...

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:58 | 6313909 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

for anyone reading that's actually interested in why everything bounced instead of just bleating at more doomporn.

It's called seasonal cycles, and yes, they still exist.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:36 | 6313992 Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Tractor production exceeded the 5 Year Plan by 44%!!!!

Breath taking bullshit data - so in your face obvious they must be scared shitless at ChiCentCom.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:42 | 6314007 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If China wants the Rothschilds and Rockefellers western banking system I'm ok with that. They can even issue arrest warrants for them. That'd be ok.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 00:20 | 6314064 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

"What we've got here is a failure to communicate."

That is to say: Those with  sufficient education or enough curiosity--and the ability to read and comprehend beyond the 2nd-grade reading level--are such an insignificant fraction of the population--once adjusted for vested interests and cowards--that there will NEVER BE a challenge to the propaganda, such that it is considered and understood for the treasonous criminal behavior that it is; that is to say, when you're dying or being massacred, you don't have enough time to contemplate the nature of Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfiend, and Warren Buffet's atrocities...

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 01:41 | 6314148 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And if the chinese communists actually ran the world, we could all live the economic dream while starving at the same time.

 

Wouldn't that be grand? 

 

Fucking communist frauds.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 03:01 | 6314194 kristian01
kristian01's picture

I'm fairly certain this isn't the same ZH that touted China passing US as the largest GDP last year on a PPP basis, right?

Help us help you, guys. Just tell us what the narrative is this week, don't make us guess!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 03:35 | 6314223 B2u
B2u's picture

Sum Ting Wong

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 05:11 | 6314293 biggestbrother
biggestbrother's picture

what COMPLETE BULLSHIT the chinese are. 

 

THey buy the politicians, get one of theirs in government then we are ll livign under these despots. 

 

Its not much fun for the average chinese person. that is us soon. 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:07 | 6314561 etudiant
etudiant's picture

Xinhua reports June power use as up 1.8% y/y ( http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/15/c_134415405.htm )

Clearly highlighting the dramatic improvement in China industrial production efficiency. Output up 6.8% on 1.8% increase in power use.

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