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"Everything Is Awesome" In China - Retail Sales, Industrial Production, & GDP All Mysteriously Crush Expectations
Retail Sales increased 10.6% YoY (smashing expectations of a 10.2% YoY Gain); Industrial Production rose 6.8% (crushing expectations of a 6.0% YoY gain); and the big daddy of goalseeked data, China GDP managed to rise 7.0% (comfortably beating expectations of just 6.8% but still the lowest since Q1 2009). Now it is up to the markets to decide if good data is bad news because it gives the government less excuses to throw more "measures" at the market; or is good data, good news as it "proves" the economic fundamentals underlying massively exponential gains in Chinese stocks (and excessive valuations compared to the rest of the world) are justified. When the data hit Chinese stocks were at the lows of the day, and for now, it appears good data is bad news as stocks are not bouncing at all.
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FALLS 1.6% AT OPEN BEFORE GDP DATA. GDP better be a hugely goalseeked miss
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2015
Why would we ever think that?
Everything Is Awesome!!!
One quick question... What exactly are the Chinese suddenly producing so much of? Because its not steel, its not houses, and its not being exported overseas...
Do not question this!!
- *CHINA'S GDP 'NOT OVERESTIMATED', NBS SHENG SAYS
China - we are going to need some worse data than that...
* * *
Finally here is Cornerstone Macro with a less 'optimistic' look ahead...
- PBOC easing hasn’t worked b/c investment and credit are bubbles, lowering demand for credit and slowing investment, Cornerstone Macro economists led by Nancy Lazar write in note.
- Expect China official real GDP by 4Q to have 5% handle
- Inventory destocking likely to be drag on 2H growth; industrial production will probably slow further
- Implications of Chinese hard landing incl. slower global growth; risk of disappointing multinational earnings; inflation and rates, both lower for longer; continued decline in commodity prices; rising USD trend
- Potential ramifications for China incl. PBOC continues to ease, cutting base lending rate to zero from 4.85%, loweringRRR to 6% from 18.5%; weaker outbound investment, which presents problem for other EMs; weaker FDI into China; downturn in employment, retail sales; social unrest and geopolitical turmoil
One last thing - we're going to need a lot more betterer data...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Mortimer! We're back!
(Subract 5% from all Chinese data and you have comparable numbers to the US. Subract 10% and you have comparable numbers to reality.)
Started working at home! It is by far the best job I have ever had. I just recently purchased a Brand new BMW since getting a check for $5476 this 8-week past. I began this 10 months ago and I am now bringing home at least $87 per hour. I work through this link. Go here... www.earnmore9.com
Sun Tzu would say...
"Man who scratch bottom should not bite fingernails."
Any clown can make money in a bull market.
It takes conviction to make money in bear markets.
These fuckers are toast!
for what it's worth, my anecdotes point to a bit of a factory rebound ..... don't get mad =( just saying, there could be a little truth to these numbers
"Man kicked in scrotum left holding the bag."
Looks disgusting.
Should make great soup.
I checked that link, but being a fluff boy is SOOOO lSt decade. Gotta pass bro.
the only thing awesome about China is the amount of perfectly good toe jam that goes to waste!!
Because in China if the government says it will be 7% growth ... then it will be 7% growth.
Pity the poor clown that reports growth from their region below 7% ... would love to see the province by province breakdown .... 7's across the board I would bet.
Amazing how accurate those govt forecasters are. The wimps on Wall Street could learn a few lessons no doubt.
Jack Welch did it for 20 years. Not only is he not in prison, he is treated like some sort of legend. Cocksucker!
They even named a thing after that "Oxygen Thief"
Verb 1. welch - cheat by avoiding payment of a gambling debtwelsh cheat, rip off, chisel - deprive somebody of something by deceit; "The con-man beat me out of $50"; "This salesman ripped us off!"; "we were cheated by their clever-sounding scheme"; "They chiseled me out of my money"
The rabbit hole knows no bottom. Far past the time when there remains no credibility to any government's data, they will continue to publish whatever is deemed politically expedient to perpetuate the ago-driven ramps. Inflate or die; no liquidation can ever be allowed.
Does China have some bridges to sell me to!!!!!
How about a ghost city? I read somewhere they "plan" to do this in AZ... start digging Tylers.
The world has gone completely mad.
Agree, have to think if Mother Theresa were alive today, she would lie too. It's wong to be right. "When things get bad you just have to lie."
Mother Theresa's job was to increase the number of Catholics by any means necessary. Poor women having children, now that is such an honorable calling, just above protecting child molester priests.
On Q99X2 things are running pretty good. We didn't even have any guys fallin in love with other guys butts or anything like that.
Even with the bullshit numbers, that trend isn't looking good.
Silly
Who gives a shit? Ayn Rand called it in 1957.
She thought she was illustrating their folly, while handing them the playbook.
Cuffy Meigs don't DO IT!
... just wait 'till the companies start to announce their "earnings" ...
Earnings? Companies need earnings? Don't change the rules mid-stream.
They will just fabricate those. Off balance sheet shenanigans, tax adjustment, currency asjustments they will just make them look good. And why not? They won't go to jail.
Hmmmm, must have outsourced and shipped all of our statisticians over to China...
No. China recognizes that they are the leader in manufacturing but that the US is the leader in services. They have contracted the BLS to fudge their numbers. You need real experts to do that well.
No. Home grown under the CCP we meet the quotas or else. 'They' at one point, about 1997, asked HK statisticians to advise them--but that didn't last long, as the HKers, were gobsmacked at what they were asked to do.
The amazing part of this bullshit is, they actually think we believe it. Historians sure as hell better be taking notes...
Since 1949
YoY Industrial Production is down to the 2008/2009 time frame.
Something got past the data minders.
We know from 2008 that revenue numbers can be fabricated.
US demand is WAY off that's for sure.
Guess we''ll save to wait and see how oil prices do tomorrow.
If they drop twenty dollars a barrel "for no particular reason" in say...FIVE MINUTES...then we'll know something is amiss!
"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!
I am the great and powerful OZ!"
Howly chit!
Hellava line up tonight, Tyler!
Where the fuck is Hugh Hendry when you need him, btw? Not the new Hugh, the old Hugh.
CHINA'S GDP 'NOT OVERESTIMATED'. No, just intentionally overstated. What?! You want the truth?
Does this mean all the poorly made plastic Chinese crap in the dollar stores is now going to be cheaper? Great! More useless plastic Chinese crap that breaks 5 minutes after you open the package....The land fills will grow at a faster rate now...
for anyone reading that's actually interested in why everything bounced instead of just bleating at more doomporn.
It's called seasonal cycles, and yes, they still exist.
Tractor production exceeded the 5 Year Plan by 44%!!!!
Breath taking bullshit data - so in your face obvious they must be scared shitless at ChiCentCom.
If China wants the Rothschilds and Rockefellers western banking system I'm ok with that. They can even issue arrest warrants for them. That'd be ok.
"What we've got here is a failure to communicate."
That is to say: Those with sufficient education or enough curiosity--and the ability to read and comprehend beyond the 2nd-grade reading level--are such an insignificant fraction of the population--once adjusted for vested interests and cowards--that there will NEVER BE a challenge to the propaganda, such that it is considered and understood for the treasonous criminal behavior that it is; that is to say, when you're dying or being massacred, you don't have enough time to contemplate the nature of Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfiend, and Warren Buffet's atrocities...
And if the chinese communists actually ran the world, we could all live the economic dream while starving at the same time.
Wouldn't that be grand?
Fucking communist frauds.
I'm fairly certain this isn't the same ZH that touted China passing US as the largest GDP last year on a PPP basis, right?
Help us help you, guys. Just tell us what the narrative is this week, don't make us guess!
Sum Ting Wong
what COMPLETE BULLSHIT the chinese are.
THey buy the politicians, get one of theirs in government then we are ll livign under these despots.
Its not much fun for the average chinese person. that is us soon.
Xinhua reports June power use as up 1.8% y/y ( http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/15/c_134415405.htm )
Clearly highlighting the dramatic improvement in China industrial production efficiency. Output up 6.8% on 1.8% increase in power use.