This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Iran Deal Done - "Stunning, Historic Mistake" Or "Profoundly Positive Change"
While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached. As Reuters reports, the agreement will be greeted with alarm in several quarters, both in Washington and Tehran and internationally too, and could yet unravel. Internationally, the deal will accelerate unease in some Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who remains the fiercest public critic and has issued a warning that the accord will "inevitably lead to a nuclear war." The deal profoundly changes the balance of power in the region, but averts the conflict that was likely otherwise, but as ECStrat notes, Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities, but the near term impact will be to continue oil’s decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.
The agreement will be greeted with alarm in several quarters, both in Washington and Tehran and internationally too, and could yet unravel. Internationally, the deal will accelerate unease in some Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who remains the fiercest public critic and has issued a warning that the accord will “inevitably lead to a nuclear war.”
To be sure, no lasting settlement that Iran would ever be likely to agree to will completely eliminate its ability to build a nuclear bomb. In testimony last year, Kerry told Congress that it would, in theory, currently take Tehran around “two months” to produce sufficient nuclear material for such a weapon.
However, buttressed by greater international monitoring and oversight of Iran’s program, the P5+1 believe that they have significantly lengthened this so-called ‘break-out period’ to at least 12 months. This is a very sensitive issue with many conservatives in Tehran, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
This underlines the fact that, within Iran and the United States, opposition to a final deal is concentrated largely (but by no means exclusively rests) amongst conservatives, including the Republican Party which controls Congress. And, it is the American federal legislature where the deal faces the most obvious and immediate challenge, with a 60 day review period soon underway with final votes probably not until the autumn.
And John Boehner came out firing this morning...
- *PRESIDENT OBAMA 'ABANDONED HIS OWN GOALS' WITH IRAN: BOEHNER
- *OBAMA'S 'DEAL' WILL 'ONLY EMBOLDEN' IRAN: BOEHNER
However, as ECStrat's Emad Mostique notes, there are positives (and opportunities) from the deal...
While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached. We think this is a good deal that stops nuclear breakout, the primary aim.
The deal profoundly changes the balance of power in the region, but averts the conflict that was likely otherwise.
We have been of the opinion that Iran’s nuclear program was primarily a defensive deterrent for a pariah, autarchic state, with any offensive function circumscribed by the jurisprudential foundations of Twelver Shia Islam (see page 6 onwards here).
Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities, but the near term impact will be to continue oil’s decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.
Pariah no longer?
The mutual distrust between Iran and the rest of the world stemmed from their outcast status that started after the Iranian revolution in 1979, when Iran had its own “Arab Spring”, overthrowing the monarchy for a democratic system that was then handed over to the control of Ayatollah Khomenei, who pushed a new concept of velayat-e-faqih, “guardianship of the jurists”. The unpredictable nature of the new, non-autocratic Iran led to most of the world uniting behind Arab leader Saddam Hussein in the horrible Iran-Iraq war that ensued, with only Israel providing substantive support to Iran as they were unsure Saddam was quite all there.
In the decades since there has been some degree of hesistance and debate in the West and Israel as to whether Iran was a state or an ideology (with the pejorative use of “mullahs” to refer to its leadership). As the former, one could treat it as a rational actor with various power blocs within it, as the latter the tendency was, to quote Benjamin Netanyahu who used a nuclear Iran as a key political canard, to view it as an “messianic apocalyptic cult”, particularly given Ahmadinejad’s tendency to make millenarian declarations of the return of the Mahdi.
The last few years of negotiation following the freezing of Iran from the global system in 2012, co-ordinated with several regional allies to try to prevent the inexorable shift in the regional balance of power and baking of the Shia croissant, has shown that Iran is indeed a rational state, albeit one with irrational actors within it.
These irrational actors were, as in many countries, primarily driven not by religious fervour, but rather by political ideology (rather conservative) and the desire to maintain their privileged status in society – Iran’s elite controlled the reins to the sanctions economy and thus became inordinately wealthy from it, even as the middle classes suffered.
The role of religion in the purported Sunni-Shia Cold War in the region has been overplayed and is primarily only a small contributory factor on the basis of cultural prejudices. This can be seen by historically well-integrated societies such as Iraq pre-war and Kuwait today, but external actors such as ISIS are adept at driving and widening sectarian wedges, building on some of the more aggressive interpretations of religion (an interesting exercise is to see how references to Shia shift from rafidi (rejectors of faith) to ajam (persian) in Gulf media).
Economic factors to political sanctions
Indeed, the erosion of the middle class and “bazaaris” was one of the most interesting elements of the recent sanctions regime, as this group had benefited dramatically from the easy monetary policy in Iran under President Ahmadinejad, who set real interest rates to -10% in a populist binge, causing a huge boom in the monetary supply base (almost four-fold pop) even as the currency was pegged to the dollar, resulting in a hugely overvalued rial and Iranian cash flooding the region and doubling imports into the Arab Spring to nearly $80bn.
This, combined with Iran undergoing subsidy reform (moving from $100bn a year on a $350bn economy to a basic income model) and GDP approaching $400bn made Iran a real threat from a soft-power basis in the region, particularly given its traditional “role” as supporting self-declared revolutionary groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
When sanctions kicked in in 2012, the Iranian rial simply corrected back to its real effective exchange rate, not a hyper inflationary collapse that some were warning of at the time. The currency has remained relatively stable in an EM context at around 30,000 with interest rates at 20% and the Rouhani government steadily reducing inflation down to 15% from over 40% (be careful when analysing Iranian economic stats as the years are a bit funny, as are some of the official calculations).
This move in the currency, which the elite could circumvent, halved imports and ironically crushed the increasingly influential middle class, who were effectively frozen out of the international market by SWIFT/banking sanctions. Indeed, the banking sanctions were the main spanner in the works for Iranian industry, as many industries were untouched by other sanctions but business just became too difficult to do for many others, particularly if focused on trade.
Recent sanctions and government action has led to some oddities in the Iranian economy in recent years, such as the savings rate dropping from 45% to 33% in the last few years with investment being squeezed, even as household consumption increased almost 10% to 52%. Real estate and luxury cars (particularly Porsches, which are oddly prevalent in Tehran) benefitted with imports at a quarter of consumption, but there is a significant gap in SME financing in particular.
While Iran will likely have access to over $100bn in frozen offshore reserves and assets, as well as 30m barrels of floating oil and increased oil flows, it faces a delicate balancing act if it is to avoid stoking inflation ahead of next year’s elections. The economy is moderately well diversified versus regional peers, with oil receipts under a third of GDP (with most of the receipts going on remaining energy subsidies and new social payments), but there is an increasing focus on economic diversification, with startup growth and accelerators actively encouraged and FDI, which currently stands at 2% of GDP, a key target. The opening of Iran should also change the political balance of power profoundly as the middle classes, who actually (mostly) pay tax, become the primary beneficiaries of increased trade and a reversal in declining investment.
Possibly the most interesting stock market in the world
The Tehran Stock Exchange has a market cap of $100bn and trades up to $200m a day, high in a frontier market context with a PE of around 6x and double digit dividends. Access should SWIFT sanctions be removed is surprisingly easy, but navigating the market is a bit harder as local knowledge is needed to separate the privately owned and controlled companies from those controlled by groups such as the Setad under Ayatollah Khamenei or under one of the myriad companies controlled by the praetorian guard of Iran, the IRGC. The bond market is nascent, but Shariah-compliant and growing
The stock market will be an essential means for Iran to encourage foreign investment and increase its profile, particularly as there are another potential $100bn of privatisations in the pipeline if current plans are kept to, ideally for the government at a higher valuation to the ones we’ve seen. We would expect inflows to be slower than one might think as foreign companies will be cautious of the web of sanctions that needs to be unravelled and many lack expertise in the region sufficient to navigate the opaque on the ground environment where corporate governance can be variable to say the least. The banking sector also doesn’t appear to be very healthy after years of economic mismanagement, but capital may suddenly become considerably cheaper to paper over the cracks
Gradual sanctions removal
Back to the Iran deal, per the proposed text sanctions removal looks to be gradated but reasonably comprehensive, with the key banking sanctions being removed with IAEA verification, the major fillip to the economy that will allow it to resume its growth.
Certain sanctions focused on human rights abuses and related to Iran as a state sponsor of terror will stay in place, but the initial range of removed sanctions seems surprisingly broad. Iran has much more work to do to become a valued member of the global community, but trade goes a long way toward that.
The most aggressive US sanctions have been codified by Congress and thus can only be waived by Congressional vote or waived on a short-term basis by presidential waiver. We don’t see this as being rolled back by future administrations, particularly as the likelihood of Iran adhering to the deal under our model is very high
Oil cracking
We have been firmly negative on oil for the last few months and continue to see a double bottom in the oil price as the near term impact of floating Iranian barrels and medium term impact of increased Iranian production (we would venture 700kbpd in 6-12 months and potential output of 4.5-5mbpd in a few years vs a prior peak of 6mbpd) is absorbed by the market, pushing down the curve over the next year out even as inventory build continues and we are a month or two away from US production falling.
It is worth noting that Iranian oil is fairly low cost and the current outline of new production sharing agreements looks attractive, so this is oil that is highly likely to come to the market versus higher cost fields elsewhere. Iran has proved oil reserves of 160n barrels, 10% of the global total and the worlds largest proved gas reserves at 34 tr cubic metres (18% of global total). Not all Iranian crude will be exported however as it already consumes 2mbpd a day and sanctions removal will allow it to diversify downstream, with the bulk of production increase occurring in 2018-2020.
We also note that, unlikely the end of last year when Saudi was actually cutting exports and not really being that aggressive on pricing differentials, they have, as expected, ramped up oil production to record levels and actually reduced internal consumption on a seasonally adjusted basis, as well as slashed prices going into this summer, trying to drive down prices at a critical time. This has been a key driver of recent weakness in the price, as well as the market factoring in returning Iranian oil.
OPEC won’t cut in line and our view on China remains firmly bearish (note they’ve also filled their strategic reserves, removing up to 200kbpd of “demand”), with all signs pointing to a double bottom in the oil price.
After that our viewpoints diverge, with my view being that we work through the inventory overhang to the end of this year as oil sold forward comes back to the market and geopolitics looks somewhat troubling into 2016, even as production peaks and falls due to lack of exploration spending and cash run off, pushing up the back end of the oil curve and seeing a return to backwardation taking us back up above $100 into 2017.
JP thinks we are in a new normal and the end of the Chinese boom and increased fuel efficiency means we could go even lower than the lows.
Market impact
Shall be interesting to find out, but a double dip will put real pressure on energy equities, maybe even on the magical CNOOC and Sinopec (!) which have divorced from reality on the China equity boom. Global energy stocks have largely been tracking 12m oil and this is the key gauge to look at as the market prices forward Iranian crude.
Elsewhere, this is terrible news for Nigeria, where the Buhari government has been slow out of the blocks in getting the new cabinet and leadership team in place. A devaluation to 240-250 over the summer is highly likely, even as subsidies are removed, placing a lot of pain on the locals. The only reason it seems to feel bullish is because suddenly everyone is so bearish on Nigeria, but valuations still don’t quite give the comfort one would require here as the post-Buhari pop has slowly punctured.
On a single stock level, concerns over Nigeria may be outweighing the positive impact of potential repatriation of Iranian profits for MTN, which has had a subdued reaction today. In contrast, Gubre, a Turkish fertilizer stock we have highlighted in the past as having a substantial portion of its EBITDA from Iran, is up 10% (looking expensive) and Savola, which has a solid portion of its edible oils business in Iran is also up a couple of percent.
Russia should also suffer from the Iranian deal short-term as can be seen by the Ruble reaction, but this is predictable given the high correlation one should expect between the currency and the oil price. Please see our latest governments and markets piece for our latest views on the overall market.
The Gulf nations face somewhat of a mixed bag as there are undeniably proxy conflicts in certain areas, such as Yemen (where the Shia influence is overstated), yet alliances in others such as the fight against ISIS. The Gulf stock markets will likely remain secure as the governments have shown they will continue spending, although the question now is whether and in what form they will finance potential deficits. Certain regional companies such as Savola may well benefit from their Iranian ties and as Iran opens it provides an attractive new market to cash rich Gulf companies in need of a population to sell to, particularly as North Africa looks increasingly dicey.
Geopolitical fallout
On a military basis fears of a regional Iranian hegemon are overblown, with the Iranian army likely continuing a defensive posture, even as it supports regional allies.
The support of regional allies is not a case of Iran being “evil” and supporting “evil”, but rather the quite rational policy of supporting those who share commonalities in political position and goals. The level of support also varies dramatically, from heavy support for Assad and the Iraqi government (where a delicate dance is playing out) to minimal support for the Houthis in Yemen, which looks like it is headed toward becoming Al Qaedastan as the death toll rises above that of the Gaza offensive last year and the sheer scale of emergency aid requirements is mind boggling but largely ignored.
None of these pose a threat to regional governments territorially, certainly compared to the threat of ISIS and Iranian military spending is unlikely to ramp considerably as the IRGC concentrate on maintaining internal power under a new political and economic reality.
To put this in context, Iran spends just slightly more on its army than Oman
This is not particularly good for President Netanyahu in Israel and may drive further wedges in the political process there as a key “immediate” threat has been largely neutralised. Long-term there is the possibility that this is a bad deal for Israel as he says, but it is difficult to get people to rally around long-term, with short-term domestic issues now likely to dominate. We think this is good for Israel’s safety.
Geopolitically this deal is great for Russia as it fits in with their theme of moving in to occupy the space left by the USA as it pivots from the Middle East to Asia.
We should expect a significant pickup in trade between Russia and Iran, with Turkey and China being the other major beneficiaries in this regard as the petrodollar nexus moves further East.
This also marks a massive success for President Obama and paves the way for an increased focus on Asia, where the rebalancing of China and Japan pose an uncomfortable problem with no clear solution.
It is unlikely that the next President will roll back a nuclear deal or stop extending waivers regardless of the current rhetoric. The exception would be if Donald Trump wins, but that opens up a whole new barrel of worms.
Congress will have 60 days to look at the deal but ultimately can’t block it. Big Oil will also lobby aggressively for the deal to be put in place.
The ultimate upshot of the deal however is peace as we avoid a distrous regional conflict.
* * *
This political discontent in the United States may only embolden Netanyahu...
- *NETANYAHU CALLS IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL `STUNNING, HISTORIC MISTAKE'
- *ISRAEL NOT BOUND BY IRAN DEAL, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER SAYS
Especially with the latter’s new electoral mandate, Israel will probably reserve the right to take unilateral military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Taken overall, the final, comprehensive nuclear deal is a historic landmark that opens a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the United States, and wider West. However, domestic and international critics will now rally against the agreement, and it will face an early and significant hurdle this autumn in Congress.
»
- 29414 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
… and Chamberlain waved a piece of paper signed by Hitler and declared the Peace for Our Time.
One year later the World War II started.
Looney
Which was every bit as contrived as this "deal."
I support this deal. I think it will work out at least as well as Obamacare.
If there is a WWIII, it will be started by the USSA pushed from behind by the neo cons, neo liberals and their masters, the international banksters.
Somewhere in here there is a brilliant joke about WWIII and single-payer... but my brain can't quite latch onto it.
It's a deal worse than even we imagined possible. It's a deal that gives the Iranian regime $140b in return for ... effectively nothing: no dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, no anytime/anywhere inspections, no curbs on Iran's ballistic missile program, no maintenance of the arms embargo, no halt to Iran's sponsorship of terror.
except... Iran has every right to a civilian nuclear program under the NPT.
Somehow I bet you are untroubled by the fact Israel has hundreds of nukes and periodically bombs hospitals and schools.
But this deal - which allows Iran to do what it already had a right to do - is a "bad one"?
Huh?
Too muhc Fox News for you, Cliffie.
Iran should and could be a natural ally of the US. If we stopped threatening them, and gently opened more and more trade, in a generation the young people of that country would begin rolling back the theocracy which came to power because the US overthrew a democracy and installed a repressive police state.
You are right if someone wants to kill me and my family then maybe if I am really nice to them and give them everything they want then they will turn into nice people.
Do recommend the gas chambers, the ovens or both?
Ask the US Government. I think they'd say HellfireTM
pods
Hey Cliff, if I were you, I would worry less about the Iranians 'getting' you, and more about rising crime rates in the USSA. In fact, you are far more likely to die through 'death by cop' than from bogeyman iranians.
strawman much?
No, just responding to your earlier comment, repeated for your edification:
"You are right if someone wants to kill me and my family then maybe if I am really nice to them and give them everything they want then they will turn into nice people.
Do recommend the gas chambers, the ovens or both?"
Do you actually believe that the Iranians will be setting up gas chambers or ovens in the USSA anytime soon?
Besides the banksters that run the USSA couldn't give 2 shits about you or your family. They are cutting this deal to compel Iran to sell their natural resources in Fed Reserve Notes, creating a bid under their faltering dollar ponzi scheme, extending and pretending for a while longer. Everything else is BS.
Sounds pretty clear the BN is the one who wants to press the button now. Since 1945 it has been the US (and therefore israel) who has countered the threat of large conventional land armies with their policy of preemption. The trouble with that one is that 70 years after their last nuclear strike people are thinking they don't have the nerve to go full Dr. Strangelove.
A policy of threats obliges them to carry out their treats once in a while. Bad policy.
I have several worries: 1. Will the Iranians act with integrity or will they use North Korea as an example - their history should send a clear indication of the correct answer to this question. 2. While the agreement prohibits the Iranians from amassing weapons grade plutonium it does allow them to further refine uranium and continue to develop and build more centrifuges - you don't need just plutonium to build a bomb, and finally, 3. While this move may avert a war in the near future what happens in 10 years when the Iranians have the capacity (and may have already built) to build numerous nuclear bombs (as in 10 or more) and have the capacity to accurately deliver payloads on ballistic missiles.
I'm not sure I share POTUS's enthusiasm for this 'deal'. He's leaving much bigger problems for some future POTUS.
Short and to the point: Today is day one of the Middle East Nuclear Arms Race.
In testimony last year, Kerry told Congress that it would, in theory, currently take Tehran around “two months” to produce sufficient nuclear material for such a weapon.
However, buttressed by greater international monitoring and oversight of Iran’s program, the P5+1 believe that they have significantly lengthened this so-called ‘break-out period’ to at least 12 months.
WTF!
Kerry admits Iran will be nuclear in a year. Oh, but it’s OK because GE and GS and JPM and Google and Exxon, etc. are going to make a lot of money from it.
Useful fucking idiots!
When we hang the capitalists they will sell us the rope we use.
Joseph Stalin
"Iran Deal Done - "Stunning, Historic Mistake" Or "Profoundly Positive Change"
That's easy. The latter.
The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee says the historic Iran nuclear deal reached in Vienna Tuesday will secure Iran's pathway to a bomb and add to its capability to terrorize the West and the Middle East.
"I don’t know what information the Obama administration possesses that indicates this deal will actually prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon or will cause the mullahs to reduce their support for worldwide terrorism, but it sure isn’t the same intelligence we’re seeing in the Intelligence Committee," he said. "Iran has killed hundreds of U.S. soldiers, tried to conduct a terrorist attack in the United States, and is committed to annihilating Israel. This deal will guarantee Iran the capability to carry out its clear intent."
LOL!
The "chairman of the House Intelligence Committee" is a lying fascist neocon (did I just repeat myself?) POS, and MIC tool without equal. Mike Rogers solution to everything - kill more people abroad and spy on more people at home.
Cliff,
Please share your personal experience of when an Iranian attacked you personally. I think it could really help us to understand where this fear is comming from.
So please share your personal experience.
RIPS
Sorry Rips but if you do not know what an analogy is then I do not suffer fools.
You must find it hard to look in the mirror, then
Did you like that one, it is a quote from my favorite economist Paul Krugman.
The trustworthy and honest israelis with their patriotic sayanim had to lie and steal their way to a nuclear bomb for decades, blocking inspections or walling off the portions they did not want the inspectors to find. They never felt bothered to sign onto the NPT, along with other bastions of freedom and honesty such as Pakistan, India, North Korea. israel killed many AmeriKans on the USS Liberty, then lied about it and painted the sailors as drunken antisemites. And it wouldn't surprise me to learn of the Hebrew Hand in 9/11, nevermind all the other Gentiles they have killed, imprisoned or driven off their land since the years of this little bastard's founding. Netanyahu ought not to promise imminent annihilation and then not deliver though, it will make him look like an even bigger asshole than he already does.
Maybe we should start treating israel with the same level of suspicion as we treat Pakistan and North Korea. Oh right we can't because AmeriKans have been trained like seals to suck israeli cock uber alles.
how long would it take them to build as many nukes as israel has?
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article32462.htm
http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/dangerous-civilian-enrichment.html
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=western_support_for_islam...
http://www.voltairenet.org/article178638.html
This is about "Greater Israel" and the Zios wanting American blood and treasure to smash any potential resistance to it.
That's all it is.
Read the links.
he works for the fucking post office, what do you expect!?!?
Cliffy do this.. google "how many wars has Iran started" Then when you get the answer, which is ZERO. Google how many was have we started.
false. Iraan is Persia. ask any "Iranian" and the majority of them will say they are Persian, though there are some minority people groups in Iraan who are no Persian. the various Persian empires over the millenia have started many wars. read history, bro. your comment is totally and utterly ignorant.
Persia is their colonial name and one I also notice that the israeli trolls like to use a lot, with their shitty English. The fucking map says Iran and it's been that way since 1935.
Try and get past the days of swords and sandals "bro", post 17th century Iran has started no wars. Maybe you aren't a jewish troll, I don't know but after being on Al-Monitor for awhile you can almost smell the stench of Shlomo's back hair wafting off the comments...like yours.
false. Iraan is Persia. ask any "Iranian" and the majority of them will say they are Persian, though there are some minority people groups in Iraan who are no Persian. the various Persian empires over the millenia have started many wars. read history, bro. your comment is totally and utterly ignorant.
both lies, hard to pick which one is a bigger lie... I'm gonna say "THE OVENS"... what did I win?
My guess would be a trip to hell.
you sir, are on a well deserved trip to hell with your zio-con ambitions that have cost millions of innocent lives...
care to respond? i will go over your crimes in excruciating detail...
The people who want to kill you are in Wash DC, NYC, Hollywood, London and Frankfurt. Iran is not droning and killing people.
Iran and Russia DID:
1. Help support and protect Christian Syrians and other Syrians in Syria with the help of Hezbollah. Who were the people helping to murder innocent Syrians? Why was McCain doing selfies with ISIS and Al Qeada?
Iran and Russia did NOT:
1. Take away your healthcare.
2. Leave your borders wide open.
3. Bankrupt your country.
4. Create endless false flags to take away your rights.
5. Give you Trayvon knock out ball where dumb southern whites cheer them on. The people who hate the Confederate flags and love playing kockout games with white folks.
6. Run 24x7 propaganda.
7. Does not giving standing ovations in CON-gress every two seconds for Porky and Bibi.
8. Did not start the civil war in the ukraine to get Christians tio kill other Christians for the zoligarchs.
I see Charlie Daniels said the US Military is the greatest in history being destroyed by obola.
If they were so great then they would have upheld their Constitutional oath against foreign ****AND**** Domestic enemies. The Pentagram is not Americans friend.
What Fred Said....
Plus, watching that bloodthirsty drag queen Linsey chew his panties over the fate of Isreal this morning on der Fox TeeVee sorta let me know where the bear shit in the buckwheat on this.
Because....fuck a whole bunch of Isreal and fuck this cheap punk from SC, too.
SC best flush their headgear next selection, FFS.
Lindsey Graham equals
1. Endless open borders and amnesty.
2. Endless PNAC-NeoCon-Neo Lib wars and proxy wars.
3. Endless military spending for slimy contractors and defense companies like General Dynamics-Crown-Krinsky aka big Obola and LBJ supporters plus organized Meyer Lanskey crime.
4. Support for ISIS, Al Qeada, Al Nusra and ISIL.
5. Voted for and pushed TPP and ObamaCare.
The NeoCons and NeoLibs like Schumer & Feinstein run the Senate.
Good points, mostly, but DC being evil does not mean the regime in Teheran/Qom is not also evil, even hideously evil in some of its doings.
The Qom government is evil, but has far less capacity to threaten the US. Realistically, firing even one nuke at the US or Israel would turn most of the country into a sheet of glass.
No one is saying the Iranian govt are good guys.
However, it is a known fact that Iran and Hezbollah are back Syria and are protecting innocent Syrians of all religions including Christians from McCain/Graham/PNAC's terrorists like ISIS, Al Nusra, ISIL and Al Qeada.
CON-gress is hyperventilating while they sell Americans out at EVERY turn and every day with ObolaCare, TPP, open borders, endless wars, Trayvon ville, endless false flags, Jade Helm and endless other BS while people worry about Iran?
F**ing morons.
Ckliff I recommend the white phosphorus and depleted uranium and flechette shells Israel has used as it has killed tens of thousands of people in the past decades.
I recommend schools and hospitals and ambulances be bombed to "defend" against unguided rockets that killed 10 people in a decade, and generally fired **after** multiple Israeli aggressions.
I think Israel's hundreds of nukes and us taxpayer funded military has killed and maimed more people than Iran ever has, or Hezbollah ever has.
And I think you are both dumb, and racist, and mistaken to think "gas chambers" is some magic intimidating phrase that excuses Israel's lies, belligence and WAR CRIMES.
of course, for you, none of that matters - Israel can do no wrong, and every time it commits an aggression, its "defense"
Well Iran has no nukes, but I wouldnt blame them for wanting them, given Israel's state terror.
Then Lavrov says this, I bet it went down well in Israel,
"It will no doubt have a healthful influence on the overall situation in the Middle East, the north of Africa and the Persian Gulf," he stressed. Third, of course, the implementation of this agreement will allow approaching other problems that exist in the region, he said.
Lavrov said in particular, the preconditions will be strengthened for completing the effort on convening the conference on creating a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.
Note, in the Russia not World news section! http://tass.ru/en/russia/808584
partisan much?
say "X much" much?
Typicall leftist communist tactics, name calling and claiming I am a racist. You know in communist Russia if you disagreed with the gov they put you into a mental instituion. Here is what your ilk do:
Dem judge orders psych counseling for D’Souza
Clinton appointee ignores physicians, orders more counseling for DineshHey Hasbara, you are blabbering too much.Don't pretend yourself to be a libertarian.
You call me a disinfo troll yet lets see:
1. Your name is specifically for trolling jews and jewish issuses
2. Your account was created over a year ago, called "Seasoning"
3. Yet you only started commenting 2 weeks ago.
4. My guess from here on out you will only make anti-semmitic comments.
So I will ask you the same question do you reccomend the Gas Chambers or the Ovens and which organization are you trolling for?
Please tell me when and how you and your family was personally attacked by Iran. Your safety is our priority here.....
Share away.
RIPS
Cliff Claven i usually advise roasting the corpses in ovens then only need to bury the bones... or feed them to your dog
are you really that guy from Cheers!! what a hilarious show!! rhea perlman was the best
I started commenting only 2 weeks ago? Who told you that, moshe? It's you who only comment on only Israel related issues and act as their apologists by subverting the real issue. The facts---
1)Persia didn't invade any country in at least the last 500 years.
2) Israel has always been in wars as it was founded by stealing and genocide.
Why should anyone answer your retarded questions as you refuse to answer anyone else's?
Shortchanged upstairs, Shlomo? It seems that way.
Well said Delicate Genius
Cliffy you sound like a Jewish Troll spewing lies and hate.
Sounds like one because thats what he is.
Delicate missed coverage of the massive street protests in 2009, where the masses in Teheran and beyond demanded their voice be counted, and the theocracy responded by disappearing thousands, and the Jarrett Administration in the U.S. could not bring themselves to condemn this or even put in a kind word for Democracy or somesuch. The youth in Iran are very well aware of conditions in the western countries, as Iran lets them come and go as they please, and access the internet and international telecoms freely. However, this does nothing to stop the theocracy, because it owns the income stream from every big lndustry, not just oil and gas. Now we are empowering this brutal regime further. The benefits will barely trickle down to the ordinary iranian. The benefits go to the mullahs. That bunch are state sponsors of terror with designs on a making a shia led brutal empire across the middle east and beyond. There will be no democratic uprising while that gang controls all wealth generating activities in Iran, and the Jarrett adminstration just widened full open the spigot they drink from.
Just what is a 'state sponsor of terrorism' these days anyway?
AmeriKa
street protests ... no chance the CIA was behind that, of course, and we ant regime change because we care, as you do, about the younf Iranians, right?
Anyone who brings up Jarrett tends to be a right wing Islamophobobic Ziotroll, it seems.
Obama had a fucking Israeli spy as his first chief of staff and has lots of Jewish advisors and has appointed tons of Jews to various juicy posts...
the secret muslim shit is Zionist propaganda.
like most intelligent people, Obama, the puppet of the ZOG, is almost surely an agnostic or atheist, or at most vaguely spiritual.
The theocracy came to power because it was the only force that could summon the power to overthrow the US puppet dictator as well as push back against that regime's secret police.
You're whining about it like it isn't our fault.
We also gave Iraq chemical weapons to use against them in an 8 year war Saddam started....
they're supposed to love us, as we re-arm Israel in the middle of war crimes?
I mean, look... kidding aside... do you ever doubt the narrative you cling to? Do you think Likud and the Zionists in Hebron are good, decent people? Do you think they give a fuck about you?
Just another episode of "Short Attention Span Theater"...
>>Iran should and could be a natural ally of the US.
you should've put this as the first sentence so i could've labeled your post under fiction. you don't know jack about iran or what's going on over there. you sit on your high horse telling someone else to stop watching fox news yet you practice the same thing.
pot, meet kettle.
nice empty rhetoric, dickbreath.
go fuck yourself.
You aren't just ignorant of what is going on in Iran. You are lost in wishful thinking. Fantasies.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article32462.htm
http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/dangerous-civilian-enrichment.html
No - you are.
na na na na nana/.
As an aside, Israel is not a signatory on the Nuclear Non-proliferation act and as I understand it, the US is not supposed to conduct trade with any non signatories. Go figure that one out.
Symington amendment.
and we recently admitted we know they have nukes
so were breaking our own laws to fund that lunatic state.
Because of the ZOG.
You are looking in all the wrong places for the percieved benefit of the deal, it's to screw the Russian bear on oil.
Why do you think the Barry O suddenly wants to be friends with Cuba after all these years?!
Can you say russian cold war missiles nearby again.....
Absolutely.
Ironic the Republicans are against it actually since they sure on board "taking it to President Poopie Pants."
I do find it funny though that President Obama can't wait to jump on Hair Force One to shake the hand of the new King of Saudi Arabia and then "just like that" plunges the knife DEEPLY into the back of Number 7.
If Israel and the Saudi's have Nukes, why can't Iran?
Don't forget Pakistan and India. They were almost at the brink of a nuclear exchange a few years ago. The good thing is my tech support questions would not be routed through Mumbai.
Why can't Iran's non state actor proxies have nukes too? That's only fair right?
I want my on personal nuke as well. It's only fair.
Ah, ha, ha, ha! Wow! Great Job, "Cliff"! Que Magnifico! What Writing! It's Shear Perfection!
Reading your lines, seeing them in my mind's eye as if delivered by John Ratzenberger is Hilarious! It's Exactly like the pseudo-intellectual blowhard from Cheers! Don't fall off your stool now. Where's Norm? And when is Carla coming along to pour a beer on your head? I've gotta hand it to you, you have Clifford Nailed to a Tee! You must be laughing your ass off somewhere, reading the comments of others as if you're not "acting" the role of Cliff Claven, no?
Well, keep it up! You're keeping me in stitches at least! Heh, heh...
Isreal (Islamic Obumboy's best friend/s?) must be shocked, especially with all those "Bunker Buster" Large Bombs in Diego Garcia? Of course, there never was ANY evidence that Iran (EYERAN) ever actually had a nuclear weapos programme, outside of US Propoganda? It was only ever a matter of Washingtom propoganda as PCR rightly reported.
And their kids can fight it because ours are leaving!
*NETANYAHU CALLS IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL `STUNNING, HISTORIC MISTAKE'
This announcement is just filled with surprises. /s
Is BeeBee gonna have to redo his bomb chart? I mean, there were only days from a bomb.
pods
This entire "deal" stinks, I don't by any "peace" deal from my leaders.
He also tweeted a photo of a cartoon bomb to scare the silly goyim.
How about this stunning comment from Lavrov, my highlight. Does this mean no US$ and no SWIFT (the levers of US power) in Russia/Iran transactions?
"Our economic ties will, no doubt, receive a new impulse because there will be no more limitations that our Western partners have introduced through their unilateral illegitimate sanctions against Iran, and there will be no situation where US and EU attempts to implement unilateral sanctions hinder our companies in carrying out financial transactions and realizing other projects together with Iranian partners," Lavrov said at a press conference in Vienna.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150714/1024601621.html#ixzz3fsiiqtMUI'm just glad I live upwind of all the local nuke targets. (we have three primary targets).....
You are a moron and fear mongerer !
To compare the current situation with the racist/lunatic ideology of Germany is not only retarded but stupid.
You are a shill.
An Israeli shill nonetheless.
Hey Nader shouldn't you be hanging homosexuals from cranes or something?
shouldnt you be shelling Palestinian boys playing soccer on a beach?
bulldozing the homes of a large family that had lived there for decades?
burning a Christian church?
Oh right I forgot, Islamist fucktardery can be excused CUZ ISRAEL!!! ZOMG
oh I forgot - you didnt address any of Israel's many war crimes - because you dont care when they murder brown people, right?
go fuck yourself, you silly twat.
Member for 4 years 5 weeks.
Jewish racial supremacist for eva.
That's SO 1990's.
They throw them off buildings now.
When was the last time the country and government of Iran attacked another sovereign nation?
Fantasticly parsed comment reprobate! Iran has been, and continues to be the world's biggest state sponsor of terrorism.
Junk away lunatics.
I won't junk you, but rather ask how and by whom terrorism began. What nation has been involved in ill planned regime change, puppet govs and resource finagling in the middle east?
Facts don't matter. His comment perfectly reflects a significant faction of the establishment.
Which only proves the dumbing down of the population has been a total success. By the way, did you year Caitlyn is to undergo menstration therapy? /s
-1 lame
Done.
I would say nobody comes close to the stars and stripes.
Oh wait, we're exceptional.
pods
says who?
Hezbollah is a resistance movement - they exist to stop Israel from invading and occupying Lebanon.
They have been blamed for all sorts of things - without evidence.
But if Israel says "Hezbollah bombed a Jewish center in Aregentina" - without evidence - fuckheads like you, blind to their pattern of lies, simply accept it.
Meanwhile, Israel is the biggest practitioner of STATE TERRORISM - killing FAR MORE PEOPLE.
than anybody - but the US.
Oh lord.....not this shit again.
Sigh.....
what shit?
facts?
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/17/top-ten-myths-about-the-i...
stubborn things, eh?
If you dont think its likely that Israel blew up that Jewish center in Argentina - you aren't thinking.
Instead, you believe,d without evidence, that a Lebanese guerilla outfit that came into existence during Israel's brutal occupation killed a bunch of Argentine Jews... because while Israel murders in the thousands, its only cuz it has to, while eeeevil Muslims just want to kill Jews and have no legitimate gripes, right?
You have to be incredibly stupid, and/or racist, to believe that sort of shit.
fuck you, pal.
Thank God for the growing Christian population in Lebanon, all due to the peace loving and tolerant Muslims.
So many people killing in the name of their god or prophet, purification of hearts and minds.
Hezbollah has literally protected churches from ISIS. Christians were safe under Hussein and Assad...
not so much the Zionist proxy terror groups.
And of course - the
Christian militias in Lebanon murdered and massacred 1 or 2 muslims - they do not have the cleanest hands either.
examine your premises.
What are the Hezbollah positions on homosexuality, women's rights, clitoridectomy, slavery, using children and retards as bombs etc? By western sta dards, they live and breathe stifling ignorant intolerant brutal tyranny. But you know that. You are on board.
What are the Hezbollah positions on homosexuality, women's rights...
Yeah, because we don't like Hezbollah that means it's OK if Israel invades Lebanon, and slaughters tens of thousands of civilians, and we should support a bunch of racial supremacist Jews ethnically cleanse Palestine. Gotcha.
...clitoridectomy...
Remind us what the Jewish position is on male genital mutilation, ie, circumcision?
...slavery...
Hezbollah support the IRS? That's news to me.
using children and retards...
What? As opposed to blowing them up on beaches while they're playing football?
Tell AIPAC they're paying you too much, Hasbara.
Thank God for the growing Christian population in Lebanon, all due to the peace loving and tolerant Muslims.
You think the Zionists only threw out the Muslim Arabs in their war of conquest in 1948?
"we have some planes"... Mossad agent on 9-11 ATC tapes, in a deep, gutterall, unmistakable Israeli accent
define "terrorism"... can't be that hard when you throw the word around like a Faux News anchor?
Totally depraved, judicially blind, lunatic zealots...
You should name some because I was under the impression that most terrorism is paid for and carried out by Sunni fundamentalists. All the israeli trolls keep crying about regarding Iran is some jews got blown up in Argentina in 1994. Even the Marine truck bombing in Beirut in 1983, like almost all the others they point at Iran but can never offer any definitive proof. Hezbollah will again make sure the next israeli temper tantrum is a costly one - "Oy they kidnapped a soldier so let's bomb their hospitals, schools and water plants!" Sometimes a more measured response from St. Jew State is called for.
Well at the moment they are involved in proxy wars all over the place and they wanted to invade Afghanistan after the 1998 Mazar-i-Sharif incident. UN (USA) prevented that from happening.
Really gonna take the proxy war angle in this?
Shit man. Ok. I see your Sharif and raise you a Toyota truck full of ISIS proxy warriors and a Maiden Square full of proxy nazi scumbags.
I'll hold Lybia and Egypt for later.
You've really got some shit to work through, bro.
Your ISIS buttboys, the Turks, the AmeriKans and the super israelis you put up on a pedestal above even yourself are the initial shitstirrers here, lil fluffy doggy.
do you mean directly or through proxies?
Koaj,
If my memory serves it was 1780? And at the time it was part of the Persian Empire. And the country invaded was India.
Since then? 0.
How many has the US invaded in the last *25* years?
Iran attacks and terrorizes numerous countries 24/7, boots on the ground, thanks to massive unrelenting aid to well known islamic terror groups, parties, and standing armies. These are directly managed by the mullahs revolutionary guards. Besides that, they don't violate sovereign nations much.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Bullshit. Sunni fundies are and have been all the rage for decades. Didn't SuperJew Finance after 9/11 explain all that to you?
wow - first comment for some hasbara shill to mention chamberlain.
Israel founded Hamas. It supports terrorists in Iran.
A series of CIA memos describes how Israeli Mossad agents posed as American spies to recruit members of the terrorist organization Jundallah to fight their covert war against Iran.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/01/13/false-flag/
A terror group the Jew lobby got removed from the state department terror list so they could kill more civilians.
Sssshhhhh! Stop telling the truth. Our programmed propaganda suseptable brains cannot take it. It induces cognative dissonance and thus requires further reinforcing of the truth by Fox news It's amazing how quite the U.S media hss obscured the fact Hamas, was the bastard love child of Israel in 1973, to act as a bulwalk against Arafats PLO. I've just been reprogrammed! Now repeat after me. "We have no partner for peace", "Israel is the only democracy in the Middle east", "They want to drive us into the sea" "Israel never attacked the U.S.S Liberty" On a side note, has anybody read the LIKUD charter?
Hey, Israel says they are our friends....they seem to be the only ones. Are we going to get picky now?
America has no friends as we have pissed on all of them.
LOL.Israel is America's friend? Hasbara trolls are on full force here. With a friend like Israel the US doesn't need any enemy.
At last, they have reached a climax!
It's no great surprise. The Americans and the Shia have been "camped out" together near Ramadi for sometime now. The Americans have been doing all the bumbing, and a re-invigorated Shia have performed well with US "Special Forces" in their rear.
Is it not now time to forgive the Syrian leader, Assbad le Badass, and include him in their struggles with ISIS?
"… and Chamberlain waved a piece of paper signed by Hitler and declared the Peace for Our Time.
One year later the World War II started.
Looney"
I agree. How Iran can trust the US is beyond me.
The only reason this is now a "deal" is because Obama is worried Russia and Iran will do a deal on oil.
It started because the blood thirsty Bolshevik jewBankers couldn't help themselves.
I hope this deal collapses as soon as possible. This is the worst thing that could have happened.
I wouldn't exactly liken Netanyahu to Hitler, but he is crazy. Like completely out of his mind batshit crazy. And his "unilateral actions" policy against the rest of the Middle East will sooner or later lead to Israel's destruction.
The shit won't truly hit the fan until he runs a bombing raid on Iran's nuclear bomb production sites.
Seeing as Iran - as admitted by every single major Western security service, including Israel's Mossad - doesn't have any 'nuclear bomb production sites', are you saying Israel will never attack Iran?
re One year later the World War II started.
... thanks to Churchill
because, his success at Gallipoli, let's give him control over WW2
something smells of gvelte-fish? again.
... the ruling elected political miedras and their crony minions could give a shit about improving a situations... all they care about is maintaining their power and winning at all costs..... fukem all...
Oil has been rising ever since the headlines came out saying deal had been agreed. Up is down, good news is bad news, day is night etc etc.
As if Iran were actually ever a nuclear threat.
If the US does not like you, you must belong to an axis of evil even as the Nobel Prize Winner bombs seven Muslim countries, destabilizes Ukraine and routinely drones women and children and wedding parties in particularly savage double-tap droning.
Forward
America's deadly double tap drone attacks are 'killing 49 people for every known terrorist in Pakistanhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2208307/Americas-deadly-double-t...
I don't see how another nuclear player in the region will solve any of those very real problems you just mentioned.
It can only exacerbate them.
The IDF and Israel Security Service chiefs know Iran is not an existential threat. The real threat to Israel comes from its murderous racist settlers.
If it pisses off Netanyahu (aka King David), then it is a good thing.
LOL, fake enemy and fake peace with that fake enemy. They create boogie men. Absurd kabuki theater for the masses. Nothing more. http://www.thetruthaboutthelaw.com/non-linear-disinformation-makes-it-im...
This is what I term as non linear logic applied by non linear opposition. If Iran was a fake enemy we would have already started dropping bombs on them. Instead we signed a peace treaty. As I recall we did not sign any peace treaties with the other fake enemies such as Iraq, Libya and Afganistan.
Because the CIA and every other western intelligence agency is well aware that Iran has
had nukes since around 1992.MIRV warheads from the soviet arsenal, bought on the black..
Whether the Ayotollah knows is another question.
Nope.
Iran has a military that can actually shoot down us planes, sink ships, and they can launch large numbers of conventional but powerful missiles at Israel.
In other words, they have no nukes - but they can fight back.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article32462.htm
http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/dangerous-civilian-enrichment.html
Your move vlad
This agreement has TPP written all over it.
what strikes me as absurd is, even if you discount the 'fatwas' of this supreme leader, and khomeini, fine - there's both no evidence of a nuke program, and the Israelis have been saying iran was a nuclear threat for decades.
Meanwhile, Israel refuses to sign the NPT, refuses inspections, and periodically bombs civilians and infrastructure in Lebanon or Palestine, or Syria - killing hundreds to thousands each year.
And somehow - THEIR nukes were never even on the table.
Got Jewish Privilege?
'Jew Privilege' is the biggest problem the people of the world face.
Ever since the Holohoax they've had a free ride.
Shlomo and Moshe at the JIDF can keep talking about the 66 Billion, but no one believes them anymore.
World opinion is decisively anti-ZioCon now.
I don't believe the 66 billion figure. At most, 10 billion Jews (mostly children like Anne Frank) were gassed at Auschwitz...
If Netanyahu is against I'm all for it.
I was going to say that. Lucky I read through some posts otherwise it would have appeared I was a plagarist.
Iranian White House Agent and Obama's handler, Valerie Jarrett rejoices!
"Ok Benyamin, you're free to bomb away. But if you ever claim publicly that we gave you a green light, we'll deny it, and you'll be killed."
He'll probably be killed anyway.
The leaders of Iran consider the USA the devil and enemy. They chant death to America in their congress/government meetings. Where is the positive spin on thiis deal that ultimately allows our enemy to have nuclear weapons?
Using logic and reason is racist.
first of all - maybe do some research on why the Iranians arent big fans of the US.
Second - can you explain how this deal "allows our enemy to have nuclear weapons"?
also - why is it Israel can have hundreds, all while engaging in repeated war crimes, and clearly working to destroy any chance of a Palestinian state, all while denying them the civil rights they accord Jews... why is all of that fine?
Seriously.
You dont have an argument here. You have Zionist talking points.