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Iran Deal Done - "Stunning, Historic Mistake" Or "Profoundly Positive Change"
While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached. As Reuters reports, the agreement will be greeted with alarm in several quarters, both in Washington and Tehran and internationally too, and could yet unravel. Internationally, the deal will accelerate unease in some Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who remains the fiercest public critic and has issued a warning that the accord will "inevitably lead to a nuclear war." The deal profoundly changes the balance of power in the region, but averts the conflict that was likely otherwise, but as ECStrat notes, Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities, but the near term impact will be to continue oil’s decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.
The agreement will be greeted with alarm in several quarters, both in Washington and Tehran and internationally too, and could yet unravel. Internationally, the deal will accelerate unease in some Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who remains the fiercest public critic and has issued a warning that the accord will “inevitably lead to a nuclear war.”
To be sure, no lasting settlement that Iran would ever be likely to agree to will completely eliminate its ability to build a nuclear bomb. In testimony last year, Kerry told Congress that it would, in theory, currently take Tehran around “two months” to produce sufficient nuclear material for such a weapon.
However, buttressed by greater international monitoring and oversight of Iran’s program, the P5+1 believe that they have significantly lengthened this so-called ‘break-out period’ to at least 12 months. This is a very sensitive issue with many conservatives in Tehran, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
This underlines the fact that, within Iran and the United States, opposition to a final deal is concentrated largely (but by no means exclusively rests) amongst conservatives, including the Republican Party which controls Congress. And, it is the American federal legislature where the deal faces the most obvious and immediate challenge, with a 60 day review period soon underway with final votes probably not until the autumn.
And John Boehner came out firing this morning...
- *PRESIDENT OBAMA 'ABANDONED HIS OWN GOALS' WITH IRAN: BOEHNER
- *OBAMA'S 'DEAL' WILL 'ONLY EMBOLDEN' IRAN: BOEHNER
However, as ECStrat's Emad Mostique notes, there are positives (and opportunities) from the deal...
While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached. We think this is a good deal that stops nuclear breakout, the primary aim.
The deal profoundly changes the balance of power in the region, but averts the conflict that was likely otherwise.
We have been of the opinion that Iran’s nuclear program was primarily a defensive deterrent for a pariah, autarchic state, with any offensive function circumscribed by the jurisprudential foundations of Twelver Shia Islam (see page 6 onwards here).
Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities, but the near term impact will be to continue oil’s decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.
Pariah no longer?
The mutual distrust between Iran and the rest of the world stemmed from their outcast status that started after the Iranian revolution in 1979, when Iran had its own “Arab Spring”, overthrowing the monarchy for a democratic system that was then handed over to the control of Ayatollah Khomenei, who pushed a new concept of velayat-e-faqih, “guardianship of the jurists”. The unpredictable nature of the new, non-autocratic Iran led to most of the world uniting behind Arab leader Saddam Hussein in the horrible Iran-Iraq war that ensued, with only Israel providing substantive support to Iran as they were unsure Saddam was quite all there.
In the decades since there has been some degree of hesistance and debate in the West and Israel as to whether Iran was a state or an ideology (with the pejorative use of “mullahs” to refer to its leadership). As the former, one could treat it as a rational actor with various power blocs within it, as the latter the tendency was, to quote Benjamin Netanyahu who used a nuclear Iran as a key political canard, to view it as an “messianic apocalyptic cult”, particularly given Ahmadinejad’s tendency to make millenarian declarations of the return of the Mahdi.
The last few years of negotiation following the freezing of Iran from the global system in 2012, co-ordinated with several regional allies to try to prevent the inexorable shift in the regional balance of power and baking of the Shia croissant, has shown that Iran is indeed a rational state, albeit one with irrational actors within it.
These irrational actors were, as in many countries, primarily driven not by religious fervour, but rather by political ideology (rather conservative) and the desire to maintain their privileged status in society – Iran’s elite controlled the reins to the sanctions economy and thus became inordinately wealthy from it, even as the middle classes suffered.
The role of religion in the purported Sunni-Shia Cold War in the region has been overplayed and is primarily only a small contributory factor on the basis of cultural prejudices. This can be seen by historically well-integrated societies such as Iraq pre-war and Kuwait today, but external actors such as ISIS are adept at driving and widening sectarian wedges, building on some of the more aggressive interpretations of religion (an interesting exercise is to see how references to Shia shift from rafidi (rejectors of faith) to ajam (persian) in Gulf media).
Economic factors to political sanctions
Indeed, the erosion of the middle class and “bazaaris” was one of the most interesting elements of the recent sanctions regime, as this group had benefited dramatically from the easy monetary policy in Iran under President Ahmadinejad, who set real interest rates to -10% in a populist binge, causing a huge boom in the monetary supply base (almost four-fold pop) even as the currency was pegged to the dollar, resulting in a hugely overvalued rial and Iranian cash flooding the region and doubling imports into the Arab Spring to nearly $80bn.
This, combined with Iran undergoing subsidy reform (moving from $100bn a year on a $350bn economy to a basic income model) and GDP approaching $400bn made Iran a real threat from a soft-power basis in the region, particularly given its traditional “role” as supporting self-declared revolutionary groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
When sanctions kicked in in 2012, the Iranian rial simply corrected back to its real effective exchange rate, not a hyper inflationary collapse that some were warning of at the time. The currency has remained relatively stable in an EM context at around 30,000 with interest rates at 20% and the Rouhani government steadily reducing inflation down to 15% from over 40% (be careful when analysing Iranian economic stats as the years are a bit funny, as are some of the official calculations).
This move in the currency, which the elite could circumvent, halved imports and ironically crushed the increasingly influential middle class, who were effectively frozen out of the international market by SWIFT/banking sanctions. Indeed, the banking sanctions were the main spanner in the works for Iranian industry, as many industries were untouched by other sanctions but business just became too difficult to do for many others, particularly if focused on trade.
Recent sanctions and government action has led to some oddities in the Iranian economy in recent years, such as the savings rate dropping from 45% to 33% in the last few years with investment being squeezed, even as household consumption increased almost 10% to 52%. Real estate and luxury cars (particularly Porsches, which are oddly prevalent in Tehran) benefitted with imports at a quarter of consumption, but there is a significant gap in SME financing in particular.
While Iran will likely have access to over $100bn in frozen offshore reserves and assets, as well as 30m barrels of floating oil and increased oil flows, it faces a delicate balancing act if it is to avoid stoking inflation ahead of next year’s elections. The economy is moderately well diversified versus regional peers, with oil receipts under a third of GDP (with most of the receipts going on remaining energy subsidies and new social payments), but there is an increasing focus on economic diversification, with startup growth and accelerators actively encouraged and FDI, which currently stands at 2% of GDP, a key target. The opening of Iran should also change the political balance of power profoundly as the middle classes, who actually (mostly) pay tax, become the primary beneficiaries of increased trade and a reversal in declining investment.
Possibly the most interesting stock market in the world
The Tehran Stock Exchange has a market cap of $100bn and trades up to $200m a day, high in a frontier market context with a PE of around 6x and double digit dividends. Access should SWIFT sanctions be removed is surprisingly easy, but navigating the market is a bit harder as local knowledge is needed to separate the privately owned and controlled companies from those controlled by groups such as the Setad under Ayatollah Khamenei or under one of the myriad companies controlled by the praetorian guard of Iran, the IRGC. The bond market is nascent, but Shariah-compliant and growing
The stock market will be an essential means for Iran to encourage foreign investment and increase its profile, particularly as there are another potential $100bn of privatisations in the pipeline if current plans are kept to, ideally for the government at a higher valuation to the ones we’ve seen. We would expect inflows to be slower than one might think as foreign companies will be cautious of the web of sanctions that needs to be unravelled and many lack expertise in the region sufficient to navigate the opaque on the ground environment where corporate governance can be variable to say the least. The banking sector also doesn’t appear to be very healthy after years of economic mismanagement, but capital may suddenly become considerably cheaper to paper over the cracks
Gradual sanctions removal
Back to the Iran deal, per the proposed text sanctions removal looks to be gradated but reasonably comprehensive, with the key banking sanctions being removed with IAEA verification, the major fillip to the economy that will allow it to resume its growth.
Certain sanctions focused on human rights abuses and related to Iran as a state sponsor of terror will stay in place, but the initial range of removed sanctions seems surprisingly broad. Iran has much more work to do to become a valued member of the global community, but trade goes a long way toward that.
The most aggressive US sanctions have been codified by Congress and thus can only be waived by Congressional vote or waived on a short-term basis by presidential waiver. We don’t see this as being rolled back by future administrations, particularly as the likelihood of Iran adhering to the deal under our model is very high
Oil cracking
We have been firmly negative on oil for the last few months and continue to see a double bottom in the oil price as the near term impact of floating Iranian barrels and medium term impact of increased Iranian production (we would venture 700kbpd in 6-12 months and potential output of 4.5-5mbpd in a few years vs a prior peak of 6mbpd) is absorbed by the market, pushing down the curve over the next year out even as inventory build continues and we are a month or two away from US production falling.
It is worth noting that Iranian oil is fairly low cost and the current outline of new production sharing agreements looks attractive, so this is oil that is highly likely to come to the market versus higher cost fields elsewhere. Iran has proved oil reserves of 160n barrels, 10% of the global total and the worlds largest proved gas reserves at 34 tr cubic metres (18% of global total). Not all Iranian crude will be exported however as it already consumes 2mbpd a day and sanctions removal will allow it to diversify downstream, with the bulk of production increase occurring in 2018-2020.
We also note that, unlikely the end of last year when Saudi was actually cutting exports and not really being that aggressive on pricing differentials, they have, as expected, ramped up oil production to record levels and actually reduced internal consumption on a seasonally adjusted basis, as well as slashed prices going into this summer, trying to drive down prices at a critical time. This has been a key driver of recent weakness in the price, as well as the market factoring in returning Iranian oil.
OPEC won’t cut in line and our view on China remains firmly bearish (note they’ve also filled their strategic reserves, removing up to 200kbpd of “demand”), with all signs pointing to a double bottom in the oil price.
After that our viewpoints diverge, with my view being that we work through the inventory overhang to the end of this year as oil sold forward comes back to the market and geopolitics looks somewhat troubling into 2016, even as production peaks and falls due to lack of exploration spending and cash run off, pushing up the back end of the oil curve and seeing a return to backwardation taking us back up above $100 into 2017.
JP thinks we are in a new normal and the end of the Chinese boom and increased fuel efficiency means we could go even lower than the lows.
Market impact
Shall be interesting to find out, but a double dip will put real pressure on energy equities, maybe even on the magical CNOOC and Sinopec (!) which have divorced from reality on the China equity boom. Global energy stocks have largely been tracking 12m oil and this is the key gauge to look at as the market prices forward Iranian crude.
Elsewhere, this is terrible news for Nigeria, where the Buhari government has been slow out of the blocks in getting the new cabinet and leadership team in place. A devaluation to 240-250 over the summer is highly likely, even as subsidies are removed, placing a lot of pain on the locals. The only reason it seems to feel bullish is because suddenly everyone is so bearish on Nigeria, but valuations still don’t quite give the comfort one would require here as the post-Buhari pop has slowly punctured.
On a single stock level, concerns over Nigeria may be outweighing the positive impact of potential repatriation of Iranian profits for MTN, which has had a subdued reaction today. In contrast, Gubre, a Turkish fertilizer stock we have highlighted in the past as having a substantial portion of its EBITDA from Iran, is up 10% (looking expensive) and Savola, which has a solid portion of its edible oils business in Iran is also up a couple of percent.
Russia should also suffer from the Iranian deal short-term as can be seen by the Ruble reaction, but this is predictable given the high correlation one should expect between the currency and the oil price. Please see our latest governments and markets piece for our latest views on the overall market.
The Gulf nations face somewhat of a mixed bag as there are undeniably proxy conflicts in certain areas, such as Yemen (where the Shia influence is overstated), yet alliances in others such as the fight against ISIS. The Gulf stock markets will likely remain secure as the governments have shown they will continue spending, although the question now is whether and in what form they will finance potential deficits. Certain regional companies such as Savola may well benefit from their Iranian ties and as Iran opens it provides an attractive new market to cash rich Gulf companies in need of a population to sell to, particularly as North Africa looks increasingly dicey.
Geopolitical fallout
On a military basis fears of a regional Iranian hegemon are overblown, with the Iranian army likely continuing a defensive posture, even as it supports regional allies.
The support of regional allies is not a case of Iran being “evil” and supporting “evil”, but rather the quite rational policy of supporting those who share commonalities in political position and goals. The level of support also varies dramatically, from heavy support for Assad and the Iraqi government (where a delicate dance is playing out) to minimal support for the Houthis in Yemen, which looks like it is headed toward becoming Al Qaedastan as the death toll rises above that of the Gaza offensive last year and the sheer scale of emergency aid requirements is mind boggling but largely ignored.
None of these pose a threat to regional governments territorially, certainly compared to the threat of ISIS and Iranian military spending is unlikely to ramp considerably as the IRGC concentrate on maintaining internal power under a new political and economic reality.
To put this in context, Iran spends just slightly more on its army than Oman
This is not particularly good for President Netanyahu in Israel and may drive further wedges in the political process there as a key “immediate” threat has been largely neutralised. Long-term there is the possibility that this is a bad deal for Israel as he says, but it is difficult to get people to rally around long-term, with short-term domestic issues now likely to dominate. We think this is good for Israel’s safety.
Geopolitically this deal is great for Russia as it fits in with their theme of moving in to occupy the space left by the USA as it pivots from the Middle East to Asia.
We should expect a significant pickup in trade between Russia and Iran, with Turkey and China being the other major beneficiaries in this regard as the petrodollar nexus moves further East.
This also marks a massive success for President Obama and paves the way for an increased focus on Asia, where the rebalancing of China and Japan pose an uncomfortable problem with no clear solution.
It is unlikely that the next President will roll back a nuclear deal or stop extending waivers regardless of the current rhetoric. The exception would be if Donald Trump wins, but that opens up a whole new barrel of worms.
Congress will have 60 days to look at the deal but ultimately can’t block it. Big Oil will also lobby aggressively for the deal to be put in place.
The ultimate upshot of the deal however is peace as we avoid a distrous regional conflict.
* * *
This political discontent in the United States may only embolden Netanyahu...
- *NETANYAHU CALLS IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL `STUNNING, HISTORIC MISTAKE'
- *ISRAEL NOT BOUND BY IRAN DEAL, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER SAYS
Especially with the latter’s new electoral mandate, Israel will probably reserve the right to take unilateral military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Taken overall, the final, comprehensive nuclear deal is a historic landmark that opens a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the United States, and wider West. However, domestic and international critics will now rally against the agreement, and it will face an early and significant hurdle this autumn in Congress.
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Well all of Israel's neighbours have tried to wipe them out several times trough warfare.... so it makes sense for them to get Nukes. Iran's geography makes it allmost impossible to take.
When you invade, and fail, you are screwed.
Always been that way.
Then why do you cry shouting holocaust..holocaust? Hitler sent Jews to gas chamber cause it was a war and they lost it. Isn't it so, Hasbara cunt?
Zio-trolls are foaming at the mouth... wait 'til Obama vetoes Senate vote, might have to put them in a cage, or a nice hot shower, Step Quickly and Quietly!
You gone done pissed of the Isrealis now Obammy!
You really think Oblahblah would do anything the Israelis didn't want?
Dogs and ponies come to mind.
Isrealis obvioulsy doing what they do best, playing the "outraged victim". I think the Polish had a saying about the jews, ",,,the only people that cry out in pain as they punch you in the face...", or something like that.
This is about bolstering the faultering dollar. Nothing else.
Probably the only thing this administration has done right, which leads me to believe that they fucked it up some how. One would think that nations would learn it's best not to get into bed with the U.S. We prop up dick taters until they decide to start thinking for themselves and then we overthrow them. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Oh, are you kidding me, Doc? OF COURSE they fucked this up. It's not even in question.
A nuclear arms treaty from the same guy who gave us Obamacare? This has failure, humiliation, economic loss and dead brown people written all over it.
+1. O.ne B.ig A.ssed M.istake A.merica.
My thoughts exactly. devil will be in the details
There are so many figures (Israel, AIPAC, Neocons and other paranoid zombies) waiting in the sidelines to fuck this up with false flags galore, I don't think it matters whether this administration got it right, wrong, or was even sincere about peace. I think most ZHers are right when they see it as an attempt to draw Iran away from Russia and sell their oil in USD, especially now that the Saudis have been making overtures towards the BRICS. It ain't called the petro-dollar for nuthin', doncha know?
I don't think the Iranians are that stupid, but once they open up their country, I can envisage truck-loads of NGOs setting up shop with Vicky Nuland's thugs to brew up one of her special colour revolutions. Meanwhile, Netanyahu will buy up some advertising in America to incite hatred against Iran in his own inimitable style. Be very interesting when, in all likelihood, the UN security council approves the recognition of the State of Palestine in September this year.
I am of the opinion that Israel (as well as the Saudis) was involved with 9/11 to help the neocons with PNAC. An equally devastating false flag somewhere to divert everyone's attention from the Palestine recognition process is not that far fetched. Certainly I am expecting the association of Palestinians with ISIS in the mainstream media soon despite the fact that it is Israel helping ISIS with their kosher field hospitals right now.
Who does not have a Central Bank? Syria, N Korea and Iran? Libya and Iraq did not have one which is why people had to die.
Did Iran cave into having a central bank?
Me thinks this is a promise designed to be broken (false flag) by the Iranians to prove to the mouth-breathing Red Team voters that Iran can't be trusted and must immediately be bombed (by Israel). Iran shall never be allowed to make their own decisions, like trading oil for gold. This is just the US telling Iran that he won't cum in her mouth.
Sen. Cotton said he is waiting to see the secret clauses. We will never see them of course.
What currency is their oil going to be sold in ?
Ghadafy and Sadam's ghosts want to know.
Cotton said today that the USSA should invade Iran and the War would only last "a couple of days."
Over by Christmas is getting a little stale and hackneyed.
Did Cotton vote for TPP? I checked. Cotton voted to sell out Americans over TPP. F him.
What is he doing to protect the border? To overturn Obolacare? Oh yeah - nothing.
Iran never was a threat. It's all about the money (dollar as reserve currency) and pandering to Israel.
Control of a legitimate threat or one more step toward US hegemony and Iranian vassal statehood. You be the judge.
this is pre-emptive
fuck ever zio, hasbara troll who is going to unpack the usual talking points - hoping we don't notice that
a] Israel actually has nukes and is *actually* wiping a nation off the map and
b] there has been to date zero evidence produced that Iran is pursuing a nuke
Even though, given the behavior of the US and Israel over the past 30, 40, 60 years - Iran has every *right* to a nuclear deterrent.
Meanwhile, the right wing ultra orthodox of Israel keep having 10 kids, and keep terrorizing Palestinians from Jew only settlements.
I am much more afraid of Israel's hundreds of nukes in the hands of Jewish Fundamentalists, or Zionists eager to use a nuclear false flag to lie the US into another war - than I am about the possibility that the Persians might decide they need a nuke to stop Israel from bombing their research facilities or to stop the US from attacking.
Whatever happened to that U.S. drone that was allegedly recovered by Iran and was being reverse-engineered? Did "they" realize that story was akin to a joke that's only funny in your head?
I doubt the Iranians have the tech to reverse-engineer a recent US drone.
The Chinese, however...
One of the the very few things I agree with, if only because the threat of Iran was always trumped up bullshit.
Will be a positive change for their Turkish neighbors.
Remember that time the Iranians attacked a US ship - for hours - killing our sailors, and initially tried to lie and claim Egypt had done it, then changed their story to say that it was a 2+ hour "mistake"?
remember?
That was Israel...or are you being sarcastic?
The Hebe tibe from outer Persia without doubt.
The delicate Genius :Remember that time the Iranians attacked a US ship - for hours - killing our sailors, and initially tried to lie and claim Egypt had done it, then changed their story to say that it was a 2+ hour "mistake"? remember?
Payback is a bitch...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/3/newsid_4678000/4...
jeez, lotsa downvotes, so I guess it's A-OK to blow a passenger liner out of the sky?
Who knew? LOL.
Cue the Rethugs screaming over themselves to denounce, except for Rand Paul...
pathetic lot of Israel ball lickers
Now the CIA can directly finance ISIS through the Iranian regime, instead of giving fake Iraqi troops weapons and then telling them to run when confronted.
Lower gas prices and Netanyahu is pissed.......I say sign it again !!
Why shouldn't Iran have nuclear weapons? Israel has them, as does the US - arguably the immediate threat to Iran's statehood. Given that the DPRK's possession of nuclear weapons has constrained the US from using military means to enforce a 'regime change' there, Iran would be crazy not to try to acquire a deterrent capability which they most likely have already; perhaps outsourced, bought, or rented from the DPRK or Pakistan.
Still not giving up chess game with Putin.
If the Saud Abomination and the Zionist Entity are both BAWWWWWWWWing about it, it's a good thing.
Paging Nudelman-Kagan... paging Nudleman-Kagan...
Your broomstick has been pre-loaded with bunker-busters..
Prepare for Iran nuke-plant fly-over... Hillary, Samantha & Susan will be flying in formation...
The Blessings of AIPAC be with you...
- NuttyYahoo. Over.
downvotes from Zio-scum soon... there's one!
Netanyahu in 1992: Iran close to having nuclear bomb
http://www.juancole.com/2012/09/netanyahu-in-1992-iran-close-to-having-n...
The nuke issue is a ruse. Israel wants Iran destroyed like Iraq so that it has a totally free hand to invade, bomb, and bully its neighbors as it grabs more and more land.
And it wants the American goys to do it.
It already bought Congress and every Presidential candidate...
got a few minutes?
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-fo...
This is very much the goal of fundamentalist Jews and the secular right.
And lying and playing dirty pool is simply par for the course for the Jewish state.
meanwhile, the Fox/Drudge crowd never stops to wonder if maybe *they* have been subjected to propaganda which serves to whitewash Israel's crimes while villifying the people Israel has bombed, expelled, terrorized and occupied for decades.
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/17/top-ten-myths-about-the-i...
all while claiming to want "peace."
http://www.amazon.com/Ethnic-Cleansing-Palestine-Ilan-Pappe/dp/1851685553
To start with - this idea that Arab armies tried to destroy helpless Israel and that started the war is just false. It isnt true.
The Jewish terror squads began destroying Arab villages and expelling [or murdering] the inhabitants, then they declared that all this land that wasnt theirs, and wasnt given to them by the UN, was suddenly theirs.... people who had largely been born in Europe who wanted to create an ethnarchy.
Changes the narrative a bit, no?
Now here we are, decades into being marinated in Zionist propaganda due to a heavily Zionist press and a government bought an dpaid for by the Jewish Lobby.... and the idea is a country with hundreds of nukes and a top military is threatened by a country with zero nukes and a much weaker military.
Iran supports Hezbollah and to a lesser extent the Sunni Hamas. *That* is the issue - Iran helps Israel's victims defend themselves a little.
DG, good job of telling the chosenites how things really are. Not only are the cocksuckers over represented in gov't, finance, and media, they're half the ZH crowd too. Their only fault is they can't help but lie and cry 'poor persecuted me' every time their mouth gapes open, and people recognize them for what they are after a while.
DG has brought up excellent and truthful points all up and down this thread - I salute you.
Your truth-telling is burning the ears and asses of all the little Zionist trolls...and that is music to my ears.
Chosenite fucks filled to the brim with their own hubris need to be knocked off of their pedestal.
What a joke. Iran wants to build nukes so they can start a nuclear war with Israel and get destoyed? WTF?!
If Iran wants Nukes it os so the US will Feck Off once and for all and leave them the fuck alone.
So, if the 2012 sanctions against Iran inadvertantely helped them avoid hyperinflation, then it stands to reason that the dropping of said sanctions will do nothing but harm Iran's economy.
Congress will reject the deal and the other nations will walk away from the sanctions. Iran wins until the next US Prez uses the big stick. Irans youth has no truck with the West but will defend their home to the max.
I believe that whatever Barack Obama says he means the opposite.
He is the liar in Chief. Then there is Hitlery who can spin bigger BS...
People laugh at those that Prep for nuclear war. Not any more…
There is NO effective prep for nuclear war.
Need a public execution of Netanyahu and arrest all elected federal officials that are members of AIPAC.
Would you use Ovens or Gas Chambers?
hey a nazi reference *from* a nazi.
cute.
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/rania-khalek/israels-extermination-...
Now about the thousands murdered by Israel - killed in hospitals and schools and homes...
I bet you don't care one bit.
Not worth a Jewish fingernail and all, right, Cliff?
Neither - paint a bullseye labelled Khammassss on his back and dump him Gaza. The IDF will take him out (admittedly using US weapons) in the blink of an eye.
Set your oven for 616 degrees and climb the fuck in already.
there you go again with the holohoax lies... it's like you can't help yourself
nutandyahoo and his fellow nazis (including adelson)will punish the usa somehow.
false flag soon, they don't give up that easily
all the more reason to begin profiling them as terrorists in the usa and europe.
we also have thousands of Zionist traitors willing to do it for them... and a media in their pocket.
9/11 is the key.
a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached
Weapons program?? What fucked up shit is that? They are NOT negotiating a weapons program, they're negotiating inspections in return for lifting of sanctions. Is this the rhetoric we'll see in the msm? A weapons program? Sounds to me like Iran is being set up a la Iraq.
you repeat a lie often enough....
Israel and the South AfricanNuclear Bomb Documents
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/israel_south_african_nuclear_b...
Israel is the only nuclear threat to the United States.
this is the best news out of the mideast in a lng time. amazing what a parallel economic system can do for peace in the world. the usa finally does something for the usa. iran makes a much more useful ally in the mideast than israel ever could be.
Saudi is the worst bad guy in the ME. Lately they've been playing kissy face with Russia and China. Time to let Iran out of the dog house to give them something to really worry about. I'd love it if we withdrew our troops and the shia took them out.
Netin douche bag. what is he worried about. How crazy does he think Iran is to attack him? He is just a douche. STFU you asshole.
Nuclear Iran has always been a lie. But Iran and shia-controlled Iraq becomes the power of the ME. The saudi/israel pact hates that. We like it because saudi has been pivoting toward russia. They needed to be scared straght back into petro dollar forever.
Isolationism has a bad rap. Undeserved.
the icing on the cake would be treating the israelis like they treat the palestinians.
Wenever they fly in, treat them like they treat the goys arriving at Ben Gurion.
I think that the United States is not only more threatened by Israel, and by its Zionist 5th column, sayanim, and confederates, than it is by Iran...
I believe it is by orders of magnitude.
I also believe Israel, along with elements of the US government and pentagon, did 9/11 to launch decaes of war in the middle east for "greater israel" - using American blood and treasure - almost all of it non-Jewish
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-fo...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-mid...
http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2012/07/03/netanyahu-worked-insi...
you disgaree, think its just 'hate'? ok - do me a favor on this one - read the links above, consider nuttyyahoos 20 years of lying, his likely involvement in a nuclear smuggling ring, and honestly ask yourself - *might* Israel and the Zionists be lying to get the US to attack yet another regional rival?
Now then, Iran has no nukes [which is good].
what about Israels nukes and their needlessly long range missiles?
What about Israel's theft of US nuke tech?
http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2012/07/03/netanyahu-worked-insi...
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/07/netanyahu-implicated-in-nuclear-smuggling-...
Theft? The US helped Isreal acquire the Bomb!
I know
http://america-hijacked.com/2015/02/14/us-helped-israel-build-hydrogen-b...
but try leading the link, Susan.
or these:
http://irmep.org/ila/krytons/
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/israel-should-pay-for-weapons-gr...
From memory, Netanyahu was involved in some dodgy shenanigans in which Israel acquired nuclear triggers.
If Iran wanted a nuke, they could have bought one from Pakistan, DNK, or probably any former soviet satellite that needed cash.
What Iran needs is a good ole nuclear accident.
Poison the place like Japan did.
Id take Iran over Saudi Arabia any day.
iran has observer status in the shanghai cooperation organization led by china and russia. this is a big deal. iran is more important than israel to the usa. iran cannot fall to the brics. israel can go fuck itself. they can't hide their small dick anymore.
Israel has nukes and has threatened to use them on Europe if they don't get their way.
Amazing that the USA supports those genocidal psychopaths.
Israel has nukes and has threatened to use them on Europe if they don't get their way.
Amazing that the USA supports those genocidal psychopaths.
I can't believe Iran accepted any deal that did not include Israel dismantling it's nukes.
*******************************
http://www.irmep.org/
http://warisacrime.org/vips
http://www.ifamericansknew.org/
This is a positive move: will have cheaper oil, Europe wil be able to change supplier for gas - so that woud mean putin regime will have even less money in budget, and drop in oil prices will also mean less money for putin regime and even more slide for RUB only will be good for west.
It seems to me - putin regime just got ****
which is nice - don't you think?
:D
Folks, we're being played in a grand fashion.
The whole point of this is to let Iran have just enough of a nuke program to justify the Israelis going in and stomping them to the ground, like ol' Gee-Dub did to Iraq a decade ago. It's the equivelent of tossing someone a gun so you can shoot them because they had a gun. (Bill Hicks had a bit about this, but I can't find just that bit by itself on YouTube.)
Anybody who thinks Israel actually opposes this deal doesn't understand how the world really works. If Israel opposed it - it wouldn't be happening.
This is theater. This is pro wrestling. This is a giant setup to legitimize overthrowing one of the few remaining counties in the world without a Rothschild-owned central bank.
Because once the Rothschilds control every central bank on Earth, they'll collapse the world's economy and forclose on the entire planet. That's their only goal, and they've been working toward it for centuries.
There is no cure for psychopathy; it's physiological, genetetic, and therefore inheritable, just like wealth. There is only one solution.
Will humanity rise up and throw off the psychopaths? Only time will tell.
Israelis and the NeoCons are true psychopaths as well as the lowlife SLIME that support them.
Israelis and the NeoCons are true psychopaths as well as the lowlife SLIME that support them.
one thing about the rothchilds, et al, is they have no loyalty to israel if israel costs them money and power. this is the first indication israel is finished.
Well, they were instrumental in its creation, but yes, the Rothschilds, being true genetic psychopaths, have no loyalty to anything but their own power and control. (Money is merely a tool of power and control.) So sure, if they no longer had any use for Israel, they would discard it and every non-Olympian Jew in it.
But Israel is their main tool; one of the most important reasons for Israel's effectiveness is that any criticism of Israel or any of its leaders, no matter how justified, can be brushed off as antisemitism. This allows Israel to get away with actions - like doing to the Palestinians what Hitler did to the Jews - that no other country could ever get away with doing.
The Rothschild psychopaths are bent on controlling the entire world, but they also have a more immediate aim, which is expanding Israel to its Biblical borders. Those supposedly run from the Nile to the Euphrates, and encompass about half of the Arabian penninsula.
Israel's probably the only country that still has genuine banking secrecy laws: for non-gentiles only, of course.
It seems plausible, you define the terms of the agreement between Iran and the West, give it a few years and then claim that Iran is in violation of those terms. Setup no doubt.
A stunning, historic mistake would be the creation of the racist, ZioNazi state of Israel.
The nuke thing is all smoke and mirrors.
Israel is pissed off because their ZioNazi goal of controlling the whole region might be going up in smoke.
If Israel attacks Iran, Iran doesn't need nukes . It has a vast amount of conventional weapons.
Iranians are idiots to trust the so called "West". Remember Gadaffi ? Having his picture taken with all the snakes of the West, finally accepted as an OK guy - then his country blown apart by the intrepid heros of NATO while he is brutally murdered. I thought the Iranians were more intelligent - even the N Koreans know the only thing that keeps the US Hell Hound at bay is a N bomb.
Israelis are the most vile psychopaths in history, rank right up there with the Nazis of Germany, WORSE actually.
Hitler never targetted children and hospitals.
Jews are SLIME and cowards and that is why they have been hated throughout history.
A leopard doesn't change its spots. These people need to be exorcised.
This deal in my opinion makes a nuclear exchange or war nearly inevitable. The prophetic signs are playing out before our eyes.
Take your Buybull fairytales and shove them where the sun don't shine you fucking retard.
Assholes LIKE YOU are dangerous
Ever hear of a self fulfilling prophecy?
I'm simply pointing out the traitor con man in the White House has more than likely been blackmailed to make such a one way idiotic deal. I am far from dangerous. You are part of the reason that this site fails to get both sides of these issues out In the open. You are close minded and sadly foolish.
You are a fucking idiot. and probably support the ZioNazis of Israel
Rot in hell, Nazi trash
Once again, dipshit Do you know what a self fulfilling prophecy is?
You idiots who believe the Buybull bullshit are dangerous and won't be happy until you nuke the world.
You see, Bozo, there is NO GUY IN THE SKY. Its HUMANS that have the power to change things.
You morons just roll along thinking you can't change things and accept the Buybull bullshit.
Was it a circumcision accident that got you on this road?
Once again, dipshit Do you know what a self fulfilling prophecy is?
You idiots who believe the Buybull bullshit are dangerous and won't be happy until you nuke the world.
You see, Bozo, there is NO GUY IN THE SKY. Its HUMANS that have the power to change things.
You morons just roll along thinking you can't change things and accept the Buybull bullshit.
Once again, dipshit Do you know what a self fulfilling prophecy is?
You idiots who believe the Buybull bullshit are dangerous and won't be happy until you nuke the world.
You see, Bozo, there is NO GUY IN THE SKY. Its HUMANS that have the power to change things.
You morons just roll along thinking you can't change things and accept the Buybull bullshit.
I'm a third generation American and my relatives proudly fought against the Nazis and I will do it as well if called upon. Btw Islam has much more in common with Nazis than any Jew or Christian.
gaza=extermination camp. try again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbU4Cb4A4-o
ZioScum Kristol already wetting his panties in rage.
And that, as Martha Steward would say, "is a good thing"
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/very-good-deal-iran_990662.html
he helped lie the us into iraq for israel.
He should have dangled at the end of a rope for that.
The Stunning mistake is that Israel han not been nuked yet .
Nuke Israel and most of the probelm of the wolrd will disappear .
Nuke Tel Aviv , Jail and terminate the Rotschiel families and sieze their properties and no more AIPAC , Council of Foreign relations , Bilderbergers , NWO and so on . Terminate the Synagog of SATAN , no more sucking the blood of baby during circumcision .
you really should not skip your meds.
you better watch your back. the usa can now put real terrorists on the watch list.
This is something that has always bothered me about assuming banksters rule the world. Political leaders control armies. What is to stop them from simply rounding up the bankers and disappearing them?
Someone from goldman threatens you? Just smile and shoot the bastard dead. Have your security detail dig a hole somewhere and plant him.
If Isreal has a problem with the deal as agreed upon - they're more than free to do whatever they believe is in their best interest.
They won't do shit because they are cowards who will get someone else to fight their battles/
Their dream of a Greater Israel by stealing land and killing its inhabitants is coming to a screeching halt.
They are SWINE and so are the bastards who suppport them.
The nuke issue is a ruse. Israel wants the US to destroy Iran because Iran supports Hezbollah and the Palestinians and makes it harder for them to bully and intimidate their neighbors as they contemplate their future expansion/lebensraum.
Israel is the culprit hiding behind a veil of supposed fear.They need to be forced into International nuclear inspections.I see a phoney attitude based on military thinking that Israel's people have been abused by Nazis and other terrorist groups so they can't be seen as giving into pressure.To put so much talk into Iran being evil yet Israel still refuses to be accountable to inspection is two-faced.You'll never have peace until Israel is made to follow the same rules as everybody else.The latest count puts Israel with about 150 bombs.
Israel thinks they are above any laws, doncha know? They make Hitler look like a choir boy.
>>The ultimate upshot of the deal however is peace as we avoid a disastrous regional conflict.
“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”
? Winston S. Churchill
you mean like israel? they have been gnawing on the usa since truman and morganthau. it is about time the usa turns that reptile into shoes, belts, purses.
Thus sprach the perverted old warmonger.
"Stunning, Historic Mistake" Or "Profoundly Positive Change"
most likely neither ...
"The Most Positively Stunning, Profoundly Historic Mistake of a Change Ever"!
This isn't about Iran's non-existent nukes.
At root - this is about Zionist lebensraum which they want the American goys to pay and bleed for.
Period.
end of story.
Well, Obama wants it, so you know it sucks for America.
can they please nuke israel now? Oh, and nuke all the lobbyists in the us, all the media, all the hollywood movie directors, all the owners of the record labels? The federal reserve too. Lets get our country back. Those disgusting fucks have absolutely destroyed everything here.
You sound like a Jewish Troll, spewing lies and hate.
now we just have to prevent the bushes and clintons from obtaining the white house and there may be some real hope for a peaceful mid east once israel is neutered.
I must admit, before my (ongoing) deprogramming, I was pro-Israel. (gasp!) My reasoning was typical of a dumbed down Amerikan: In my then estimation, who would I rather have for a neighbor, Israel or a typical sand country. I believed Israel wasn't involved in terrorist plots against the US, that they were basically defending themselves and were being persecuted by countries stck in the Middle Ages around them, and Islam was evil. I thought Israel was basically the US of the middle east (how right I was, lol), a shining beacon of Western ideology and freedumb.
My then perceptions of the US and Israel were based on cutural and MSM indoctrination, combined with a total and absolute lack of historical context. Post deprogramming, I am literally mindblown at how ignorant I was. Now the entire picture fits together, the emperor has no clothes, and I view every ME headline in a totally different perspective.
My thinking now is:
What false flag is this setting up?
What angle do the banksters, MIC, neoCons, Zios, PTB have on this?
What resources or resource paths need to be controlled?
A freed mind is a wonderful thing.
I'm waiting for a joint Iranian/Chinese/Russian false flag terror attack on the US.
We are in deep financial shit and only a global war can distract away from it....
What's the over/under on when Israel bombs Iran?
they don't like to attack people who can fight back.
They need to use all the powers of the ZOG, the Jewish controlled media, and a bought and paid for Congress - and a false flag or two - to make sure that its the US that brings hope and regime change to Iran.
Jewish Lebensraum:
it's what's for sinners.
We all knew the Obama administration was going to agree to something. We also know that Congress will vote it down. The only question that remains is if Congress will have enough votes to override a veto.
.
Can someone explain in a nutshell why Obama and Kerry pushed for this deal ??? I must be missing something here. I just don't get it. I support it, but I don't see why the US gov wanted it.
My guess is it was the best way for Obama to piss of the Isrealis, nothing more
It is also an attempt to keep Iran out of Russia's sphere of influence. Nudelmonster will be setting up NGOs to target Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan etc to allow the US to keep pilling shit up on Russia's borders.
Azer. is already lousy with Israelis.
Noodle will fit right in...
But they may well be over their head.
That's Ivan's backyard - and he knows his enemy.
[and ours].
The USA should have never intervened in Iranian affairs, or those of any other sovereign country.
It's just none of our business.
What will the Iranians do? Are they going to fuck with the USA? They would get squashed like a bug. Iran is not our problem. Fuck them.
Iraq was never our problem either. Fuck them too.
For that matter, fuck all yall sons of bitchez, you can nuke and kill each other to your hearts content.
Not one dime of American taxpayer money to anybody but Americans.
Grimaldus
but.. but.. but what about freeing oppressed people and spreading "democracy" and making the world safe from terror??
So - what kind of false flag is Israel and its sayanim prepared to engage in, in order to lie the US into a major war on Iran, so that Israel has no regional rivals, and can invade Lebanon with an unsupported hezbollah [no problem bombing schools and hospitals and power stations - just say a rocket was fired from near there and it will be believed every time without any evidence at all, nor will the legitimacy of yet another Israeli aggression into Lebanon be questioned, and the Fox news crowd will again believe a massive invasion was defensive
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/07/04/israels-attack-on-egypt-i...
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/17/top-ten-myths-about-the-i...
http://antiwar.com/blog/2012/11/11/israels-latest-assault-on-gaza-the-li...
When you {basically} control the media and the government of the world's super power, you can easily convince the stupid that 2+2 = 5.
nothing new there.
You have Rahm Mossad Emanuel in Chicago... good place for a false flag... or maybe, just maybe, does Israel attack itself this time for max sympathy?
***********
http://how911wasdone.com/
https://archive.org/details/MastersOfDeception
http://www.bollyn.com/solving-9-11-the-book
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/9-11/Israel_did_it
How much evidence, how much proof of motivation...
http://www.voltairenet.org/article178638.html
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=western_support_for_islam...
how much is enough for you poor useful idiot "Christian" Zios to begin to wonder if maybe, just maybe, YOU have been lied to, and deceived, and used by an evil force that DESPISES you and your beliefs?
And this isnt about 'the Jews' or even most regular Israelis.
This is about Likudnik Zionism and Jewish Supremacism.
This is about recognizing evil by its deeds.
Wake Up
Wake Up
the time for sleep is over.
di immortales virtutem approbare, non adhibere debent, et vocatus atque non vocatus, Deus aderit.
Wasn't it "inspections" that led to "Operation Iraqi Freedom"?
Iranians probably just signed their death warrant, but it's all yellowcake to me.
lost in all of this is the fact that there is not a shred of evidence Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon.
Even were they to cobble together a bomb or two - you are asked by the Zios to believe that they [but not the Zio Jews - who believe God gave them land and they are "chosen..."] are so irrational and hell bent on killing Jews [but not the ones living in Iran somehow] that they would use these nukes on Israel though it would mean the death of Shia Lebanese, and their own total destruction.
So you have:
a country with hundreds of nukes busy engaging in actually wiping a country off the map claiming, for 2 decades, to be threatened by a country which has no nukes, and claiming that the Iranians, as Persians and Muslims, unlike the good and holy and totally rational Zionists, are so nuts that they would use a nuke on Israel though it invites their immediate total destruction.
It is absolute horseshit that rests on Islamophobia and Jewish/Zionist dominance of the news media and our own government.
Even now the Kristols and Adelsons and Perles contemplate how to use American non-Jews as sword and shield to kill hundreds of thousands, again, so that Israel has a freer hand in once again invading Lebanon to steal its water and gas, and to engage in a second massive ethnic cleansing of Palestine....
Have you all noticed this sudden 'shift in the balance of power' comes a few weeks after Saudi Arabia signs a new energy deal with Russia?
Methinks the U.S. is looking for new allies to try to stick save the dollar... but will ultimately fail. Iranians play chess just as well as the Russians do.
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain (It's time to toss the dice)
Got Karatbars?
I've done business with some Iranians and lebanese. Both are smart as anybody I've ever negotiated with and smarter than the fucktard prick in the white house by a long shot. If I was gambling Obama and Kerry got snookered
Exactly Mat and what would the Zionists do if their power begins to wane dramatically? One possibility is they evacuate all important Zionist personnel and false flag the hell out of Israel. Then the great victim fervor is renewed. We all know these people could give two shits less about the average Jew, unbeknownst to them they are completely expendable.
Israelis must be just steaming right now.
Americas new pres. Truman, pres, Obama, two b-29 flights over japan got people into true meaningful negotiations within weeks.
bs walks nuc.'s talk.
all the talks been centered on us , isreal, and iran, what does the eu think of ground zero nato bases scattered all all over?.
I have mixed feelings. I don't worry much about Iran, much more about Israhell. But I hate that disgusting chimp in the white house so badly I want to see him get bitch slapped at every turn. The lying fucking narcissistic prick needs to be drawn and quartered. Fuck You Obama
The biggest "Stunning, Historic Mistake" after creating the bomb was giving it to Israel.
Would be hilarious if the US is having to backslide with Iran because the Sauds are hedging their bets with Russia.
On a side note, I think the assumption that the landmass of Israel is the end all be all of importance to the banker movement should be examined. It's hard to decipher between their true religious sentimentalities and the basic strategy of these assholes. If they lock down control of the ME and the planets money creation couldn't they park their asses wherever they please?.... just sayin
Time to buy Crude oil all the way. they r building a big position for a big shoot to the sky
It may be helpful to see a current picture of Netanyahu. The price of oil will probably correlate to the bulging of his neck arteries and the steam coming out of his ears.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article32462.htm
http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/dangerous-civilian-enrichment.html
Well, at least the deal doesn't obligate the US to provide Iran with nukes. It appears to me that Obama concluded that the US couldn't prevent Iran from building nukes if it decided to, so the US effectively gives being the world's "nuclear cop". It will also open the way for the Saudis to fire up their nuclear program. The Saudis will worry about what the Iranians are doing and the Iranians will worry about what the Saudis are doing, so both are almost certain to build nukes out of fear of the other.
With luck (or maybe a little help from an outside power), there will be a nuclear exchange that will destroy both countries.
The fake phony fraud Boehner should just shut the fuck up at this point. Anyone believe anything that comes out of his mouth anymore? I'd love to know the juice they have on him. And if Bibi is against it, it must not be all that bad.,