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Snow In The Summer Confirmed - Retail Sales Tumble Most Since February
Following May's bounce in retail sales (thanks to a rise in gas prices), June's headline data printed a 0.3% plunge - the most since Feb 2015 - against expectations of a 0.3% rise. Retail Sales ex-Autos also fell MoM (down 0.1% against expectations of a 0.5% rise). This is exactly in line with our warnings last week that spending was likely to drop following a slide in credit and debit card spending as retail sales declined in autos; furniture; building materials; clothing; general merchandise; restaurants; online and miscellaneous. The control grouop data showed a mere 2.1% rise YoY - confirming recessionary signals from wholesale sales data.
Last week we reported Bank of America's internal card data revealed that after rising for 3 consecutive months, retail spending ex autos just posted its first monthly drop, declining -0.1% from May. Based on BAC internal data, which tracks aggregate spending on credit and debit cards, retail sales ex-autos declined 0.1% mom in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. This follows a strong 0.8% gain in May.
Moments ago the Dept of Commerce confirmed that this preview was absolutely correct:
Here is BofA's less than exuberant narrative...
"It is hard to prove if such a distortion exists. Therefore, we are left to conclude that the BAC internal data painted a disappointing picture of the consumer in June, especially considering our forecast for a stronger consumer in the second half of the year."
Charts: Bloomberg
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we can now export to Iran....problem solved!
This is what happens when half of your income goes to pay taxes.
What income would that be?
And we're soon gooing to do the same thing in Cuba
Missed expectation, and previous revision downwards. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow doesn't blink an eye. Somebody got to them.
Yeah and 55,000 American troops fought and died in Vietnam yet we still have a trade agreement with them. Vietnam is a bigger betrayal than Cuba any day of the week, but hey people like cheap crap produced by sweat shops.
We pay that in just state and federal tax. Factor in sale and "fees" it approaches 60%. I paid 4.99/gal yesterday to fill my tank. No, I have no plans to shop 'til I drop. This weekend project is to go through my sewing repair pile and darn socks.
Miffed
You Thief! you are getting away with 50% taxation. Mine is closer to 80%.
Have you ever sat and thought about how much tax is collected on a loaf of bread? Taxes, property, fees, etc on the farmer, the equipment makers, the harvesters and their equipment and transportation, the transports to the storage facility's of the raw grain. The transport to the mill, the mill taxes and their equipment and personnel, the packaging producers and their whole upstream, the bakers and their huge upstream, transport to the grocer, the grocer and their entire upstream, your earnings, your transport, your storage. All the taxes all these contributors pay on equipment, property, supplies, personnel, fuel, electricity, untold misc fees all become part of the price of bread.
If you sit and stretch your mind you will eventually come to the realization that for every dollar you spend on bread .gov is collecting 80% of it.
Wowch! Damn you people!!!! Forget that housing and healthcare bills...buy moar crap!!!! Moar auto debt! Break out the 10yr autoloans!!
I'm holding out for the 30 yr auto loan. I will be living in it.
Best News today...
No sales...No REVENUES...Less Tax Revenues...Corporate Losses...onward to the September collapse.
Clockwork...like clockwork.
KILL THE BEAST.
Illinois is in BIG trouble here if we're talking a major slowdown.
Heard today that Illinois will resume issuing paychecks to the state employees. Crisis averted! See - things aren't so bad.
Bad news. They need to fire the Government employees...most of them.
That is really bad news.
Only a fucking Socialist STATE-IST would consider that good.
KILL THE BEAST.
This will easily be covered by one-time expense addbacks to EPS.
The Consumer is finally Dead !!!!!!!
on Drudge today: taxes paid into fed gov continue at record levels. no wonder people don't have any $$ to spend!
And the gov. spent every penny of that and trillions more.
I am not self employed, so it is not taxes for me. For me it is inflation. Rent keeps increasing, food prices keep increasing, healthcare costs keep increasing, etc.
people were too busy watching the greek drama unfold. plus, it was warm and people were at the pool. man, im getting good at this. where do i apply to get my PhD in Econ from Yale and my 400k job at CNBC?
They just come in the mail now. You do have to have the right zip code though.
Hey 101Years, You can now get Ivy League Degrees online. Let's face it they're just Diploma Mills as well as University of Phoenix etc. Good Luck with your 400K Ouch!
Got no money
SHIT. TON of fucking debt though for State and Local Governments though.
GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!
Mid cycle correction WELL underway.
I think QE 4 is back on the table...ironically with nothing to buy really.
"Negative Rates" in the USA dead ahead.
When all the government does it TAKE, threes not much left to spend at the end of the day. Unless of course you BORROW more which is the Keynesian wet dream of a functioning economy.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0615.pdf
Despite the record tax revenues of $2,446,920,000,000 in the first nine months of this fiscal year, the government spent $2,760,301,000,000 during those nine months, and, thus, ran up a deficit of $313,381,000,000 during the period.
Sequestration is the only thing keeping that debt from being triple. Not sure how the Treasury is managing to shift the money around since we are at the debt ceiling limit....an item that has fallen off the radar.
....but that's only the amount that they admit to! The real & true number which includes Soc. Sec, Medic, etc is multiples this joke of basic arithmetic!
I want to see Walmart's numbers after their alienation of their rural Southern base.
Go back to the section that used to have all the Confederate items..they now have Al's porcelain bust there.
ANd rainbow flags no doubt.
do they have the chia obama?
Better raise EBT limits
I was gonna spend money on a Confederate Flag but I could not find any for sale...
psssst, hey you, follow me down this hallway, through this narrow door marked "janitor", through the secrect door behind the water heater. Into the "confederate easy". We have all the outlawed contraband on sale this week only.
I bought another $35 t-shirt for $2....pumped up the GDP...did my part.
Store was empty....spooky.
Speaking of empty stores. Been to a Sears lately? Only people in the store were the sales people.
It's been that way for the past 5 years. You should get out an spend more often. lol
It's been almost 30 years since I've been in a Sears store. Every time I moved they claimed they didn't get my change of address and charged me a fee for late charges. When I last ran my Sears card, the cashier said the transaction could not go through because my bill was unpaid. I asked what the balance was. 0.0 dollars. I gave her the WTF? look. She looked uncomfortable and asked me to write a check for 0.0 dollars to clear up the mess. This was one of those pivotal moments. The line behind me was growing long and the choices were varied. I stand by what I did.
In the end, I informed the manager I would no longer be shopping at Sears and he looked very relieved.
Miffed
Too much sunbathing probably.
Habib owns a local gas station and convenience store. His only employees are his wife and three kids. Habib loves spending money and takes the American consumer based dream very seriously. His three sons are enrolled at the big college here and they all drive very expensive german cars. Sadly, he hasn't been able to spend as much on useless trinkets and luxury items this year. When gas prices are low he goes into saving mode. In may, when the prices spiked, he and his family spent with both hands, and then some. The new American consumer is habib. There are a lot of habibs, from sea to shining sea.
From what I've seen, most gas stations and convenience stores are not doing well at all. Maybe Habib is running a 'laundry service' on the side.
I going to open the first rebel stuff store in Tehran .
We learned earlier this month, that employment is on rise, that US has the highest employment ever.
Everything is OK.
Once again: Obama is a blessing for the whole planet, except NATO countries, of course.
Quick...it needs to be Triple Seasonally adjusted for the snow 6 months from now.
when you say let it snow are we talking peruvian flake or... snow snow?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN7LW0Y00kE
With Obama's affordable care act driving health insurance costs up 20-50% for most businesses and working Americans (so far), Many no longer have any disposable income available to spend. I wonder how long before Americas rulers realized the consumer has hit the wall. Consumers have been bled dry. Any easy solutions left??
This argument carries no water: before having insurance they just went bankrupt or borrowed against their future health by not tending to it today, or burdened people like me with real insurance. Funny how you pay for what you use = not be foreced to pay for something you dont want types forget that important point. It isnt health care, it is stagnant wages, shitty education, and people in power making it all about flags and whatever othere nonsense keeps people from being angry they were sold a bunch of BS as the American Dream.
Snow, frost in July?
http://notrickszone.com/2015/07/10/mid-july-frost-surprises-central-euro...
http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/record-cold-in-wisconsin/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/fast-retailing-9-month...
Obummercare took what was "left" of discrestionary income. It's downhill from here. My customers are all just about tapped out from what I can gather. With health care premiums about to skyrocket again next year, I suspect the end of the "consumer" is nigh.
I'm not even sure how people are making it now outside the EBT community. Everything is rigged and everything is expensive. There are layers of taxes and fees around every corner. It's hard to make a single move without encountering another swindle.
One thing I hear from everyone more and more: You can no longer trust anything. It's all rigged.
With that mindset, it's easy to see how it will all unravel economically.
I am not sure where you live, but in the garage by me there is a new car every day, and not a single one under 45k. Housing is at zero supply level - you cannot even find a house to buy. We must be talking about a different kind of consumer.
Your first reply above was somewhat spot on ( somewhat ) then you add this reply and go full retard fuck'en idiot on us...yes your an idiot.
Dear Americans,
Why aren't you spending more? We keep telling you repeatedly that the economy is humming along fine and is on the verge of a positive breakout. Just look at the stock market..!!
Please put down your remote control, grab your debit and credit cards, and promptly drive down to your local retailers and buy stuff. Don't worry if you really need it or not, as you are doing your patriotic duty.
Yours Truly,
J. Hilsenrath, S. Liesman, Krugglebear, and the rest of the staff here at MiniTru
Saturated debt.
When all the fools have spent everything and taken all the loans they can.
Oh, yeah, those student loans.... ouch!
It's around $250,000 for a 4 year degree from one of those nice ivy league colleges.
High sales tho in the following:
alcohol...
gun and ammo sales...
Prep supplies:
sodas and candy via EBT cards:
hookers:
cigarettes:
heroin/coke/meth...
Goodwill stores...
confederate flags...
rainbow flags...
etc
Murica! Haaell yeaaah!
Current state of US economy
1. > 90% of new “jobs” are temp positions- low pay, no benefits, zero job security.
2. The bulk of income gains since the 2008 financial crash have gone to wealthiest Americans (proverbial 1%), while the average working person is working longer hours for less pay.
3. The average college student is graduating with $30 K in debt facing an anemic job market (see 1, above)
4. Auto sales are being propped up with sub-prime auto loans (See: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-24/subprime-auto-loans-stretched-to-seven-years-stoke-debt-concern); Insolvent banks are still being propped up with cheap money from the FED (US taxpayers); Stocks are inflated by company buy-backs of outstanding shares, using cheap money supplied by the FED.
5. US government debt (circa $18 trillion) exceeds GDP.
How are retail sales going to increase given these realities?