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Yellen Statement To Congress: Rate Hike "Appropriate At Some Point This Year" If Economy Evolves As Expected - Full Text

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In previewing today's Janet Yellen testimony, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow observes the following: "I would be surprised and disappointed if she puts all that much weight on yesterday’s retail sales miss. Yes she is data dependent, but the fact remains the economy is not a zero rate economy. Furthermore and much more importantly, she realizes that there can’t be normal monetary policy transmission without a rate that can be cut. She needs to take the opportunity to raise rates even a paltry 25 bps to begin the long process of normalization. It isn’t what happens if they have to cut after raising. Having something to cut will be a victory in and of itself."

DB's Jim Reid had a more neutral stance:

Today the lens will be firmly focused on Janet Yellen at the first of her semi-annual testimonies in front of the House Financial Services Committee. The reality is that she will probably keep all her options open but will probably want to get across that the committee expects the normalisation process to start soon. Whether or not it can in reality is another matter and it will be interesting to hear how much she comments on recent events in Greece and China. While I acknowledge the reasons why the Fed feel they ought to raise rates I can't help but think that with nominal activity still so weak relative to history, in another time and another place the argument could be actually spun towards more easing being required rather than hikes. In an ideal world this perhaps would be more directed at the real economy rather than asset markets but it’s worth remembering that a hike at these low levels of normal activity is almost unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve. However I appreciate that further easing is certainly not up for any discussion in this world but it does feel to me that the narrative is slightly too skewed towards the fact that they have to raise rates simply because they've been at rock bottom levels for too long and not because of the normal drivers of rate rises (ie a combination of growth and inflation).

So expect much grilling from the House during the Q&A on the Fed's normalization plans, and perhaps some directed comments about the Fed leak to Medley although not too much: after all the same Congressmen know they are reliant on the same Fed to monetize whatever deficit-busting laws the pass in the coming years.

In the meantime, here are her prepared remarks, first the summary from MNI:

  • 08:30 07/15  FED'S YELLEN: LIKELY TO HIKE 2015 IF ECON EVOLVES AS EXPECT
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: PROSPECTS FAVORABLE FOR LABOR MARKET, ECONOMY
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: FOMC DECISION MEETING-BY-MEETING BASED ON EMPL/INFL
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN:AVOID STEPS HINDER ABILITY TO MAKE POL FREE OF POLITICS
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: FED HAS IMPROVED TRANSPARENCY,COMMUNICATIONS
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: NET EXPORTS HELD DOWN BY DOLLAR RISE,WEAK FRGN GROWTH
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: TOO MANY NOT SEEKING WORK; WAGE GAINS SUBDUED
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: LABOR MKT STILL SLACK NOT YET CONSISTENT W/MAX EMPLOY
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN:MOST ON FOMC EXPECT GRADUAL HIKES AS HEADWINDS DIMINISH
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: IF ECON WEAKER/STRONGER VS EXPECTED,POL PATH WLD ALTER
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: ENTIRE PATH OF RATES MATTERS MORE THAN LIFTOFF DATE
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: LIFTOFF WILL SHOW ECONOMY'S PROGRESS SINCE CRISIS
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: PCE INFL BELOW 2% BUT INFL READINGS HAVE FIRMED LATELY
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: INFL TO HIT 2% AS EMPL IMPROVES, TRANSITORY FACTORS GO
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: FOREIGN GROWTH COULD RISE MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: GREECE,CHINA FOREIGN ISSUES POSE SOME RISKS TO GROWTH
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN: DOLLAR, OIL PRICE HEADWINDS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN:HIKES TO BE GRADUAL;TO STAY ACCOMMODATIVE FOR SOME TIME
  • 08:30 07/15  YELLEN:US ECON MAY SNAP BACK FASTER AS TRANSITORY FACTORS FADE

Which is largely a recap of her Friday statement in Cleveland.

Here is the punchline from the horse's mouth:

The Committee will determine the timing of the initial increase in the
federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis, depending on its assessment of realized and
expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. If the
economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some
point this year to raise the federal funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of
monetary policy.
Indeed, most participants in June projected that an increase in the federal funds
target range would likely become appropriate before year-end. But let me emphasize again that
these are projections based on the anticipated path of the economy, not statements of intent to
raise rates at any particular time.

So what can destabilize the outlook? Apparently China and Greece continue to be in the crosshairs:

As always, however, there are some uncertainties in the economic outlook. Foreign developments, in particular, pose some risks to U.S. growth. Most notably, although the recovery in the euro area appears to have gained a firmer footing, the situation in Greece remains difficult. And China continues to grapple with the challenges posed by high debt, weak property markets, and volatile financial conditions.

But there could be good news, especially if the harsh snow we witnessed in June finally ends:

... economic growth abroad could also pick up more quickly than observers generally anticipate, providing additional support for U.S. economic activity. The U.S. economy also might snap back more quickly as the transitory influences holding down first-half growth fade and the boost to consumer spending from low oil prices shows through more definitively.

An excerpt from Bloomberg's prepared remarks:

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said prospects are good for further improvement in the labor market and the economy, keeping the central bank on track for an interest-rate increase in 2015.

 

“If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target,” Yellen said in testimony prepared for delivery Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. She said Fed officials expect growth “to strengthen over the remainder of this year and the unemployment rate to decline gradually.”

 

Yellen, 68, again emphasized that the timing of the first rate rise in almost a decade is less important than the subsequent path of increases, which she said would be gradual. She said Fed forecasts for higher rates this year are projections and “not statements of intent to raise rates at any particular time.”

 

In the first of two scheduled days of testimony before Congress, Yellen repeated that the Fed will tighten policy when it sees more improvement in the labor market and is “reasonably confident” that inflation will head back toward 2 percent in the medium term.

 

Yellen’s testimony was similar to a speech she gave on July 10. She again acknowledged concerns over the situation in Greece and added China to her list of overseas risks.

 

Still, she sounded a note of optimism, saying that “economic growth abroad could also pick up more quickly than observers generally anticipate, providing additional support for U.S. economic activity.”

And here is the full statement (link)

 

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Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:40 | 6314669 Bank_sters
Bank_sters's picture

Let me guess, gold and silver plummeted on the news.  

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:41 | 6314677 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

It is all a big joke.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:46 | 6314696 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

If Economy Evolves As Expected

 

Bitch please!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:50 | 6314718 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Any time the anti-Christ opens her diseased mouth, gold and silver sell off.  It's a fkn ritual among the evil cabal or  something.

That and goats and boys out among the sequoias.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 10:41 | 6315183 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

Yes it is all a big joke, it's just that the joke is on all of us...
http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-awakening-of-technology.html

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:51 | 6314720 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Why does she even bother to open her mouth. She never says anything.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:04 | 6314761 iinthesky
iinthesky's picture

She said week FRiGiN growth!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:17 | 6314807 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Hearing her speak makes my skin crawl.

Fucking Zionist bitch.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:09 | 6314772 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Yellen:  "If the road bends we'll turn the wheel."

Oligarchic claptrap from invented 'professionals'.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:22 | 6314842 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

So in other words "No."

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:06 | 6314765 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

You tell her Bangin called her a lying bucket of monkey spunk.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:22 | 6314825 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

That's not fair to monkey spunk.

At least monkey spunk has a use.

Janet is as useful as genital warts.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:46 | 6314702 mojojojo
mojojojo's picture

Rate hike appropriate at some point this year, if economy evolves as expected. So, make sure you pick up some US debt securities on your way home from school kids!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:47 | 6314708 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Theres that word again.................................IF

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:40 | 6314671 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

What is "Evolves as Expected" ?  Yellen just makes shit up as she goes.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:52 | 6314724 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

she has no clue what she even talks about.  senile old bitch has a script to read from. 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:12 | 6314784 ThirteenthFloor
ThirteenthFloor's picture

+1. Yes. Clueless. Mumbling old hag. The rate hike is like the improving economy something to talk about that will never come. Always in the next half.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 10:06 | 6314875 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

It's gnomeish for: I'll get you my pretties, and your little dog, too.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:40 | 6314674 Brazen Heist
Brazen Heist's picture

Euro to parity

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:41 | 6314678 aliki
aliki's picture

love it - she says will be appropriate to raise as consumer spending picks up. good thing this testimony came out before retail sales ... uh, wait a minute

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:41 | 6314679 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

I wish she'd just shut up

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:42 | 6314680 Sleepless Knight
Sleepless Knight's picture

Three huge words in economics: "If as expected" Ha!...... right.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:42 | 6314681 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Drop dead you old hag!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:42 | 6314683 B2u
B2u's picture

a big FUCK YOU yellen...

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:42 | 6314685 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

...just as soon as U3 hits 2.1%...

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:54 | 6314731 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

U3 will hit 2.1% coincident with the Labor Force Participation Rate dipping below 50%.

Forward (over the cliff)!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:42 | 6314686 kowalli
kowalli's picture

they can't raise rates. PERIOD

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:43 | 6314687 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This is disgraceful!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:47 | 6314705 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

soon the greeks will have eu money to spend, that's gotta help the world economy janet..a JAP in the fed yet she never brings chicken soup to the meetings:) not enough rope to go around these days..

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:45 | 6314692 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

There is that word again..."Evolves"...

Standard Disclaimer: Nuke the Central Bankers from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:45 | 6314693 madcows
madcows's picture

Hey Janet.  No one believes you.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:52 | 6314722 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Yes, but if it says it over and over again, the truth no longer matters.

 

It puts the printer in the basket, beside the lotion.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:45 | 6314695 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Which likely means no increase.

Setting up a get-out clause for when the increase doesn't happen.

Any increase and US debt will become unbearable and the whole shit-show falls apart.

Can't see Yellen wanting her name on that!

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:46 | 6314701 Commodore64
Commodore64's picture

Everything is awesooooomeeeee!!!

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:46 | 6314703 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Why wait bitch?  What will be different later this year?

My god the populace is so fucking stupid.  So much cannon fodder, so little time...

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:09 | 6314771 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

What will be different later this year?

 

We'll be older?

 

Do I win something?

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:17 | 6314805 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Is the Fed still ignoring requests/subpoeona's from congress?  How is this not grounds for end the Fed and taking some fucking heads?

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:26 | 6314861 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Because 99% of the congress critters are beholden to the FED's funny money.

The entire Goobermint and the FED need to be creamated and their ashes sent in to space on one of Musk's flaming rockets.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:47 | 6314707 miker
miker's picture

These are the 'end game' months/years of a sick economy that has evolved over the last 4 decades.  The evolution has trumped big money, big corps and mega-banks and marginalized the middle class.  The poor class still get their handouts to keep them quiet.  

All of this continues to be paid for by debt with no idea how it will end.   

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:13 | 6314791 Ouagadoudou
Ouagadoudou's picture

"If you think debt don't matter then just buy everything" Kyle Bass at a conference. Debt will always come back, it's the base for the power hierarchy.at some point somebody get pissed of not being paid back. For now the one getting fucked are the pensioners and that's only the beginning. Let's see when it's China or Germany 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:48 | 6314711 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Useless tool

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:49 | 6314712 optimator
optimator's picture

Janet could make a small fortune playing the clubs.  Put her on the stage for a speech but don't tell her its a comedy club.  The audience will be laughing days later and her second career will skyrocket.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:49 | 6314714 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The USD is the safe haven. 

 

US bonds, not so much as we may get a yield spike driving bonds lower.

 

USD strength should continue to put downward pressure on the SPX.

 

The euro still has PII (not G) and S to get started and fix (LMFAO) and this should crush europe and the euro and drive the USD even higher.

 

Oh, and with the USD higher, commodities including energies (oil) and meats should tank nicely (WTF is my steak so expensive for so long - haven't the farmers slaughtered their herds - oh wait, yellen is taking delivery at high prices, losing billions by dumping into a "dark pool market" and prints MOAR to offset).

 

Interest points yellen made - for a satanic liar!!!

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:59 | 6314999 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

good summary.

 

can you imagine the carnage of simply a mild recession at this point?  PII S  are all hanging by a thread, as well as US valuations...p/e keeps getting pushed higher as E becomes harder to massage.    no one is spending more b/c income/wages remain low(er), credit card balances ebb lower b/c there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

'healthy' means expensive?  healthy housing and stock mkt priced for perfection and where most working people cant participate. peak hope to be followed by peak despertaion on the part of cbankers.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:49 | 6314715 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

mealy mouthed hobbit

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:49 | 6314716 omrizario
omrizario's picture

some point = never

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:50 | 6314719 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

What is interesting is that other leaders are finally coming out of the closet and recognizing that Greece can never repay all of its debt. It is inevitable that the same conclusion will apply to the U.S..

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:52 | 6314723 besnook
besnook's picture

"we will lose control of the value of the dollar sometime later this year and will have to raise rates like any other third world nation to attract investment in the usa and ward off hyperinflation and economic collapse."

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:56 | 6314735 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Say it enough times they believe it..

Joseph Goebbels

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:03 | 6314756 RushRoolz
RushRoolz's picture

The sum total of the Democratic platform.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:15 | 6314797 besnook
besnook's picture

the republicans and democrats are the same party with the exception of bernie sanders. both are slaves to the zionazis. that is all that matters. if you support either party you are the problem.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:23 | 6314844 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

You are a tool if you think there is a wit of difference between the parties...

Go suck Rush. 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 08:57 | 6314738 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Well better hurry up the year is half over!

I think the ONLY reason they want rate increases is to have bullets to calm a crashing market.  Trick is coming up with enough lies and BS economic reports to implement them, and then propping it all up when they do.  Doesn't look too easy lol.

Retirees with savings need to contine to plan on complete destruction vs. the good ole days of 7% cd's.  It's over, forever.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:00 | 6314746 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture

Let me see if I got this jaw boning; 'bla, bla, bla, rate hike, bla, bla, bla, short gold at 8:30 EST'....

Yep, I think I got it.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:02 | 6314747 Tinky
Tinky's picture

"Thank you, Chairperson Yellen. That was very illuminating. Now, would you mind speculating on whether or not the sun is likely to rise in the east tomorrow?"

"Thank you Senator. Although it is not my primary area of expertise, based on all of the available information, I would say yes. However, were circumstances to change substantially..."

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:03 | 6314753 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Look, I don’t think yous people understand the situation here. You don’t own us. If anything, we owns you. I’m not answering to ya. I’m not asking ya. The only reason I comes down here is to tell ya how it is and how it’s gonna be sos you don’t screw things up for us. You got that?

Janet Y.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:18 | 6314764 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

The economy has been showing signs of softness since Q2 2015.

Yellen is either:

A) Trying to influence the market with 'Open Mouth operations"

B) Planning to crash the currency because the banksters own all they want to own, and/or want to make the US Fed & US Gov't into the 'bad bank' so that the 'Good Assets' can be assigned to a 'Good Bank' elsewhere - like maybe the IMF or China (where they've been shifting their wealth for the last 25 years).

C) Totally clueless.

 

We have a deflationary environment caused by over-expansion of credit, leading to too few real assets amidst all the paper to support further net positive currency expansion. 

Yet without further expansion, the accumulated interest on outstanding debts is un-payable, literally unpayable, as in there does not exist enough money to pay them, because each unit of currency bears more than its face value in Principle+Interest...hence there MUST be a wave of defaults that would likely have a cascading deflationary effect on paper assets until the paper reaches 1:1 parity with physical assets they supposedly represent.  

So how much leverage is there?

No one really knows.  Because one person's 'debt' is another person's "deposit".

But a paper-to-physical asset ratio of at least 100:1 is a pretty sure bet, based purely on the change in the ratio of the past-numeraire (gold) to the currently accepted one (Dollar).  If the ratio is artificially supressed...which I think everyone now knows it is... then the actual ratio of stuff-to-paper is lower by a commensurate amount.

 

One way to estimate it would be to calculate using the 'old' numeraire's ratio...which was typically 40%-60% Gold.  

Then apply that ratio to the current size of the world economy, and then divide by the numer of above ground ounces to determine how high Gold would have to be, given current world supply, to apply the 'old' gold standard backing ratio to the new economy. 

This is valid inasmuch as we presume that world Gold Supply (GS) has grown at about the same rate as the Physical Economy (PE) over the last century since it was abandoned.  Basically, if the GS:PE ratio has been relatively constant...then the change in Golds' value measured by dollars is purely the result of asset inflation.

And while we can say that generally, it is approximately true...there's really no way to validate the numbers...except to say that by any estimate, the numbers are big.

Real stuff is only a tiny percentage of the nominal value of the world's economy.  The rest is 'bid up' value due to asset inflation.

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:07 | 6314768 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Hmm... didn't Nero also fiddle while Rome burned?

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:12 | 6314782 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Eewwwhhh....her in a toga? 

Raise rates? Ummm...no. Not this year. How many months now with no increase?

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:11 | 6314779 22winmag
22winmag's picture

I stopped reading at "evolves as we expect".

 

Now, back to polishing the brass on the Titanic.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:12 | 6314781 MauritiusGold
MauritiusGold's picture

She hasn't a clue what she is doing.....

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:13 | 6314792 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   Pretentious & greedy clowns ruling over the Western World....this is absolute absurdity!   Voting is irrelevant, a farce....banksters run the show!!

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:20 | 6314822 NRGTDR
NRGTDR's picture

The Globalist will raise rates when they are ready to implode the U.S. per their global domination plan. It will happen when it makes the least amount of sense and when they are ready to phase in the next module of the new global monetary system. Wasting time disecting and analzing a finanical system that is now obsolete is a useless endeavor. They will continue to lie as the last pawns on the multidimensional chess board are put into place. They have this scripted out for the next 50 years. It's time to be forward thinking and plan for the worse or better yet how do stop them from ruling the planet via 1's and 0's?

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:23 | 6314847 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Mr Yellen, Two questions: 1) who has their hand up your ass making your mouth move? 2) with regard to the fed funds target, what is you definition of 'normalized' expressed in terms off % rate...1,2,3,4% ?

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:25 | 6314855 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

I hope he's wearing a long rubber glove.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:24 | 6314854 macambaman
macambaman's picture

Yellen fucked up the markets by speaking this morning.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:27 | 6314869 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

Janet...you could have saved time with your eloquent testimony if you just gave Congress the bottom line..Mr Congress ..."We might raise rates in 2015...then again we might not raise rates in 2015...it all depends on the coin toss."

Congress to Janet..."Frankly my dear...I don't give a damn."

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:39 | 6314913 sampaine
sampaine's picture

"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:52 | 6314978 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Slam the prison doors behind her. Lock her away for life.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 09:57 | 6314994 JailBanksters
JailBanksters's picture

To put things into the right context here

There's a greater chance of Zygons landing on the White House Lawn, than a Rate rise.

If they come out with 5 or 10 basis points, but only to prove they are serious, which is less than sweet F all, it's not even worth News Space.

 

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 10:55 | 6315240 B2u
B2u's picture

Yellen wants to admit that rates will be increased when the TBTF banks tell her it is ok.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 11:18 | 6315356 MrTerry
MrTerry's picture

A MATH QUESTION with the total over 200 Trillion in all debt and Liabilities that have to be paid by the government and which comes to around just under 2 million dollars for each and every man woman and child in america . this debt is mathematically impossible to pay . Explain why any one with any common sense would be willing or foolish enough to loan the government anymore money knowing full well they will never be repaid. because it is mathematically impossible to paid them back

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