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Initial Jobless Claims 'Weakening Trend' Hits 3-Month Highs
Following last week's spike in initial jobless claims, this week saw a modest pull back to 281k (slightly better than the 285k expectations) but hovering at the average for the year, notably confirming that post-QE3 we have seen the improving trend in claims cease. The smoother 4-week average rose to 282k - the highest in almost 3 months.
Charts: bloomberg
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As if any of this unemployment data bears any resemblance to reality? Every statistic about the US economy is now a lie as David Stockman looks at 5.5% unemployment:
At the present time, there are 210 million adult Americans between the ages of 16 and 68—to take a plausible measure of the potential work force. That amounts to 420 billion potential labor hours, if we accept the convention that all adults are at least theoretically capable of holding a full-time job (2,000 hours/year) and pulling their share of society’s need for production and work effort.
By contrast, during 2014 only 240 billion hours were actually supplied to the US economy, according to the BLS estimates. Technically, therefore, there were 180 billion unemployed labor hours, meaning that the real unemployment rate was 42.9%, not 5.5%!
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-warren-buffett-economy-why-its...
We're just resting.
Everyone got their 94 million hats ready?
And the revision!!!
The graph flattens out at the bottom because we are at full employment.
Day in the life of the typical American dope
Laying in bed
Husband " Honey you going to work today "
Wife " Yes "
Husband " You sure I don't mind going "
Wife " No that's ok since you've moved the mailbox closer its really not that bad of a job '
Gallups unemployment rate has been creeping up for the last several weeks. Lets hope the BLS has the seasonal adjustment right since the NSA is well into the 300k zone.
All good news for the leisure and entertainment industries.
Lets face it folks, we are at the cusp of Utopia here.
... and in other Merikan Headline news, Kardashian is shocked she found a grey hair and Caitlyn teared up at the award ceremony.
Hey, impotent things are impotent!
...and in other news the chocolate ration has been increased to twenty grams.
The second paragraph goes on to explain the evils of chocolate and the growing obesity in our society. A loving government would reduce our food rations....for our own good of course!
So here in Obozo-land what's the unemployment rate now? 4%?
CLOSE 4.1 lol
fuck it 4.01
The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment
February 4, 2015
Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.
Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. ...
... None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.
Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this
Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's middle class.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2015/02/04/gallup-polling-ceo-bl...
"if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed."
That is a blatant lie. These unemployed are not counted in the headline number, (U2 if I recall) but they are counted in U6. If you want to talk about U6 instead of U2 then do it, but don't say the statistics are not true. They are what they are.
Thats alright, fake numbers give Yellen the excuse to normalize..... Lets kick things up say 0.5% and see what happens.....
I notice Citibank's, WFC's, JPM's, etc almost all the bank profits are blowing out expectations while equipment suppliers and manufacturers, miners, oil & gas companies are getting monkey hammered again.
Crime pays and it pays BIG. Interesting times, eh.
So what if it is not going down much? At this level it is normal for the US economy. At some point it will reflect normal or even good conditions. There are levels below which even good indicators cannot and should not drop.
At this level it is normal for the US economy
Really Santa Claus?
93 million people are no longer counted in the workforce, 100 million are on some type of Govt assistance and 50 million on food stamps, this is the new normal
No, at 218k initial claims are normal. There are other indicators that are not at normal levels. ZH likes to spin everything as bad. The 218k number is not bad. If ZH said they didn't believe the number, or that the composition of the number was suspect, I wouldn't care. I don't perform my own analysis, and I am not competent to attack or defend data accuracy.
Continuing claims dropped 112k. Another "modest" drop after last week's "spike"?
We are at $18.3 trillion in debt and climbing.
Around $19.5 trillion by the election. Watch it jump after the election again.
We will be approaching $25 trillion in 5 years. Baby-boomers retiring at 10,000/day. All those unfunded liabilities.
http://www.futuretimeline.net/subject/images/us-debt-graph-2020.jpg
We are at 18.15 trillion in debt, which is where the debt has been for the last four months. Please go directly to the source.
Treasurydirect.gov
18.3, 18.5 what difference at this point does it make ( thanks Hillary) Obummer says the debt doesn't matter anyway especially when you look at the real debt with unfunded liabilities of almost or more than 200 trillion
For now, it's the same old, same old:
http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Everyone complains about the rising number of people leaving the workforce, and they make it sound as if all these people are now sucking off the taxpayer...
Some are, no doubt, as there are ALWAYS those types around. But allow me to suggest something else...Maybe a lot of these people are leaving, not to get welfare, but because they really don't NEED to work.
I know a lot of women who have decided it doesn't pay to go out and work anymore...with what they get paid, they can barely cover child care. They see that they are only working to pay for stuff they wouldn't NEED if they just stayed home, and so they ARE. They are deciding NOT to keep playing the "hurry up and get ahead" game anymore, since they actually get nowhere.
Back in the late 60's, early 70's, it was the norm for mothers to stay at home with their kids. We are just reverting to that norm. For a time, people did try to play the game, sending Mom out to work so the family could keep up with the Joneses. Well, the Joneses ended up bankrupt and foreclosed, so, maybe that wasn't such a great strategy.
Consumerism is dying. More and more people are realizing that the endless rat-race provides no real satisfaction, and ends up costing way more than we can afford. They are downsizing, cutting back, deciding to make do with less. And they are discovering that it CAN be done, with not nearly as much pain as they were led to believe.
For awhile, the banksters had us...they had us buying into the whole fiasco. After we sent Mom out to earn a paycheck, and that no longer provided the funds needed to play, they convinced us to max out our credit cards. When THAT stopped providing funds, they convinced us our homes were actually ATM's, until we maxxed out THAT funding source.
There's nothing left to tap, folks. And more and more people aren't even willing to try anymore. So now we go the other way...we deleverage debt, we bring Mom back home, and we stop mindlessly spending money. This is very bad news for business, but very, very GOOD news for real people. Without the frantic consumerism, prices will not be able to keep inflating, and will even have to come down, regardless of the wishes of business. Either that, or go out of business altogether.
I'm actually glad for the strong resistance from business to raising wages...this ensures that the stupid consumer can't be lured back into spending-mode, cause he doesn't have the money, and doesn't want, or can't get, the credit. Good. It's like an alcoholic with no money...unless someone GIVES it to him, he won't be drinking tonight, and that is a GOOD thing.
Without money, the consumer can't support the economy. And it is starting to look like he doesn't even WANT to, which ought to be bowel-loosening news to those who make their livings selling discretionary goods and services. And since most things people buy are discretionary, there is a lot of belt-tightening yet to be done.
So maybe the employment statistics are telling us something else, something other than the conventional wisdom might suggest. Maybe all those newly unemployed AREN'T suffering somewhere, or sucking off welfare. Maybe they are doing just fine, living their little down-sized lives, and realizing it isn't so bad after all. Maybe they have finally realized that all their extra slaving just provided profits to someone else, and really didn't improve THEIR own lives much. Maybe now they've decided to stop doing it.
Back in the late 60's/early 70's, most of my friends had stay at home Moms. And we lived pretty well, had homes, cars, went on vacations...all with a labor force participation rate at or lower than we have today. AND we had stay at home Moms!
God, if enough people go back to that thinking, a LOT of businesses are going to fail, and a lot of investments will go sour. All the dead wood they tried to save by propping up the bloated economy will finally be cleared away.
They want you to spend, either your money, or borrowed funds, they don't care. They just need you to spend. In the absence of decent wages, they'd like it if you'd work 2 jobs, or send all your able-bodied family members out there to slave for a paycheck. Take out a loan...something.
Fuck them. Keep your money, and keep your time too. Stop slaving for a reward that they keep pulling away, just out of reach, never intending to allow you to have it. Most of us have enough for our needs, if we live smart. The only reason TPTB want to let you have more is so you can turn around and spend it so THEY can profit. You don't actually NEED much more than you've got...unless you are living in a cardboard box under a bridge.
Yeah, with this labor-force participation rate, we're headed back to those heady days of stay-at-home Moms that our conservatives are always fondly recalling. So they should be on board with this trend, even if their bankster-buddies are not.
Stay at home mothers (or fathers) makes happy, healthier children.
Real UNemployment in the USA is between 25-30 percent.