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Philly Fed "Bounce" Plunges To 2015 Lows, Employment Tumbles
After June's hope-strewn dead-cat-bounce, Philly Fed has plunged back to the lows of the year. Printing 5.7, missing expectations of 12.0, this is the biggest miss since January. It appears the weakness in Q1 (and Q2) and now Q3 was more than just weather... or port closures... as the employment index plunged to its lowest since January.
Not the post-weather bounce everyone called for...
Breakdown...
Meanwhile hope remains...
Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future growth edged slightly higher this month. The future general activity index increased 2 pointsto its highest reading since January. The future index for new orders increased 1 point, while the future shipments index fell 6 points, after reaching a 10-month high in June.
The future employment index was essentially unchanged compared with last month. More than 31 percent of the firms expect expansion in their workforce over the next six months, while 9 percent expect a reduction.
or maybe it's just more delusion.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Nothing that cannot be seasonally adjusted higher in the next release.
As the White House presciently promised, no recession in the land of the free until at least 2025.
Besides, recessions can be easily eliminated by adjusting the inflation as we have been doing for decades.
US inflation numbers are completely fake - so real US GDP is much, much lower:
The Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%. So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.
The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2013 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5% respectively.
What is the Chapwood Index?
"The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/inaccurate-statistics-and-threa...
Look, it's hot outside. You can't expect people to go out in this weather.
And what are the youth doing? Learning a trade? Studying medicine and nursing? The smart/lucky few are; the majority are learning how to wrap a burrito or run a computer ordering system that will replace them in five years.
A lot of the Mom's and Dad's are working in "management" (keeping employees to 29.5 hours/week) getting paid $35K/year to work 60 hours/week - or working 29.5 hours/week at Home Depot and Best Buy.
Amurika!
Learning trades as a novice is near impossible. I work right now in the beer distribution field as a draft beer technician and am trying to get into HVAC and or building maintenance and everyone wants someone with 5+ years experience with multiple trade skills, mechanical, electric, welding, metal fabrication etc...
On top of that they want to start you at less than $20 an hour, oh and your degree don't mean shit. I can't even get my foot in the door as a part time trainee. Well at least that's how it is around where I live. It would be easier if I lived near a large city but fuck that. I hate living with constant traffic.
Learning to "trade".
Most of the "Youth" are living with their parents until 30. Texting/Sexting and many engage in illicit actions for a little extra spending money. A few responsible ones, study, get a job and move out.
I assume your talking about the same youths who can't do a Google search and think Caitlyn Jenner is brave?????
America was the best at one time.
Exactly forty six years ago, this was put together by west coast companies .... hats off to those brilliant engineers. Where are they now?
http://www.thisdayinaviation.com/tag/apollo-11/
Done with slide rules and brain power, both obsolete in the 'new' America.......