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U.S. Retail Sales Fall, Again - The Next Crash Is Near
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U.S. Retail Sales Fall, Again - The Next Crash Is Near
Retail sales have fallen yet again in the mighty U.S. economy, home of the Never-Ending Recovery . Once again, this number has fallen even before we adjust it for inflation, in order to make the statistic meaningful. A retail sales number which is not adjusted for inflation (by subtracting the rate of inflation) only tells us how much depreciating money the people spent, not how many goods and services they actually purchased.
In June of this year, the month just reported, U.S. retail sales are estimated by the government to have fallen (month-over-month) by 0.3%, a seemingly insignificant number. But this is before we adjust that number for inflation. What is the rate of inflation, the real rate?
Our governments hide that secret with statistical falsifications too numerous to list, and in many cases too complex to explain to those without a formal background in economics. But we can see this real inflation, in our own lives. Food and shelter, the two most-important categories of consumption, are soaring at the most-rapid pace seen in our lifetime, somewhere above 20% per year.
Other categories of “consumer goods” have increased in price at a much lower rate, but here’s the point. As more and more of our populations descend to the economic status of Working Poor (or lower), food and shelter become the only categories of consumption. Thus, for this growing majority of our populations, the “inflation rate” for food-and-shelter becomes THE inflation rate: 20+% per year.
John Williams of Shadowstats.com estimates inflation to be near (but not above) 10%. But he calculates that inflation rate honestly using the “basket of goods” of a Middle Class society (the Middle Class of the United States). That society no longer exists. In the basket of goods of the Working Poor, there is only food and shelter.
For the smaller, more-affluent half of our societies, Mr. Williams’ estimate is undoubtedly as accurate as any estimate currently being produced. When we aggregate these two halves of society, the Working Poor suffering from 20+% inflation, and the relatively Affluent Minority living with a still-despicable inflation rate of 8 – 10%, we get some number at/above 15%. For statistical convenience, however, let’s assume a conservative, overall inflation-rate of 12% per year.
Now let’s return to the unadjusted number for retail sales reported by the U.S. government. The monthly decline of 0.3% becomes a plunge of 1.3% once we subtract the monthly inflation rate (12% per year, divided by 12 months). But we’re used to seeing statistics expressed as annualized numbers.
If we take this monthly plunge in retail sales and “annualize” it, we see that U.S. retail sales fell in June at an annualized rate of 15.6%, once adjusted conservatively for inflation. In a consumer economy that is a sickening rate of decline. Now it’s time to look at the Big Picture. Here we see that U.S. retail sales have been falling not just this month, or just this year. Adjusted for inflation, U.S. retail sales have been falling every year, and nearly every month – cumulatively.
If we go back to the end of 2007, to the bursting of the U.S. housing-bubble, and the collapse of the U.S. economy first became visible/painful for the American people, since that time U.S. retail sales have plummeted by roughly 50%. Let me repeat this, in this consumer economy, U.S. retailers are selling roughly half as many goods (and services) as they were selling less than eight years ago.
This relentless, severe decline in retail sales is not the symptom of some mere recession. A collapse of this magnitude and duration – in a consumer economy – can only be the symptom of a Greater Depression . Here it must be understood that the term “consumer economy” itself is nothing but an economic euphemism for a dying economy .
What does an economy do when it no longer produces enough goods to pay its own bills? It “consumes”, meaning it cannibalizes (i.e. consumes) all of the accumulated wealth of that society. And when the “consumer economy” has cannibalized all that wealth? It turns to debt .
As a matter of arithmetic, no entity can pile-up more and more debt forever, not even according to the voodoo economics of charlatan economists. What happens when a dying, consumer economy has mooched/borrowed all the debt it is capable of absorbing? We get the U.S. economy .
This dying economy is now so ridiculously over-burdened with debt (public, private, and corporate) that it has become impossible to even sustain its level of consumption, once it has paid the massive, and ever-increasing, interest on these debts. This is true even with the Federal Reserve’s money-printing cranked-up to an insane extreme, and interest rates ratcheted-down to the ultra-insane/ultra-fraudulent level of 0%. The parasitic blood-sucking of the One Bank , the “collector” of all these interest payments has now made the U.S. economy unable to tread water, even with maximum stimulation.
To hide this death spiral, the U.S. government (like all Western regimes) refuses to adjust its “retail sales” number for inflation, and also tells ridiculous economic lies, claiming the official “inflation rate” is near-zero, even as we see food and real estate prices skyrocketing at a never-before-seen pace. But while you can lie about an economic collapse to populations of Kamikaze Lemmings , you can’t hide the economic carnage produced from that collapse – forever.
Thus, roughly every eight years, the One Bank and its Western political servants stage an official “crash”. It triggers a collapse in our bubble stock markets , which triggers a short-term economic shock, but most of the “crash” itself is simply our corrupt governments partially adjusting their previous economic lies, to acknowledge (in part) this economic death-spiral.
With the Crash of ’08 now nearly eight years behind us as we look in our rear-view mirrors, this can only mean that the Next Crash is near. But we also know that the Next Crash is coming soon, because these crashes are deliberately timed to coincide with the U.S. presidential cycle – and the next U.S. election is now little more than one year away.
The crashes are timed to coincide with the eight-year “changing of the guard” in the U.S. Two-Party Dictatorship. The incumbent, Tweedle-Dee, is blamed for the crash, and temporarily banished to political exile, in disgrace (for precisely eight years). Tweedle-Dumb is hailed (by the Corporate media) as the White Knight, riding to the rescue of the U.S. population.
Then, eight years later, the roles are reversed. And no matter how many times the U.S.’s population of Lemmings watch (and live) this rerun, they’re fooled every time. This begs the question: when these slack-jawed Lemmings sit on their couches watching TV-reruns on their idiot-box, do they even know they are watching a repeat?
But as we near the end of yet another one of the One Bank’s bubble-and-crash cycles of financial fraud, this bubble-and-crash is/will be different – different from any/every bubble-and-crash ever seen in our economies. The last bubble-and-crash cycle, the Crash of ’08, ended with the corrupt regimes of the West already being bankrupted by the Big Bank “bail-outs” extorted by the One Bank.
We know these regimes are all bankrupt, because none of them can afford to pay normalized (i.e. legitimate) rates of interest on their massive, sovereign debts. Since 2008, only one Western nation (outside of Iceland) has been forced to pay normalized rates of interest on its debts: Greece. And (in conjunction with Austerity) doing so has bankrupted it not once, but twice , in the span of three years.
What is implied when a collection of bankrupt economies is deliberately crashed, after the financial systems of all these economies have been deliberately chained together by the banksters like dominoes? It should mean, simply, “the end” (i.e. Debt Jubilee ).
However, as we see these Western, fascist, puppet-regimes banning public protest , banning free speech , and creating their “secret police”, what it more-likely means is the One Bank choosing to stage yet another Great War. In “the fog of war”, this Old World Order hopes that it can hide the complete-and-utter economic devastation which it has wrought, and somehow retain its corrupt choke-hold on political power, financial power, and the Corporate media propaganda machine.
Let’s hope that that the One Bank has miscalculated – again.
U.S. Retail Sales Fall, Again - The Next Crash Is Near
Sprott Money first to announce state-of-the-art fully private (NON BANK) Cayman asset storage --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html
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When Bubba hits DC, the Frog Revolution will look like kindergarten
Armstrong says aggregate debt of 18T is 70% cumulative interest.
They might pay 40-50% of tax revenues on debt interest. I dont know exactly and why would it matter it is all over the top
fraud and corruption any round number will do. All waste counts twice so all gov terror is so far off the hyperbolic scale it
doesnt matter when starting out even very small any amount of terror no matter how insignificant readily compounds into
what you have. Try losing 10,000 cash out of your back pocket, you lost the labor years to save the 10,000 then double it
again to repeat 10,000 labor value to save it again, All loss of human life energy (labor) counts twice.
Works good when the purchasing power is
destroyed and there is no human labor capacity for tax waste because all labor has alredy been destroyed by inflation.
The interest waste is their income inequality.
If the purchasing power is cut in half every 20 years, the wealthy might expect twice the pay so their saving is still worth one whole
in 20 years. If they are taxed 60%, to net 40% labor, they might expect 2.5 times pay again to cover corruption waste,
that is their income inequality - tax.
1 devided by 40% is 250%. So now they need 200% to cover devaluation times 250% to cover tax genocide, 200% times 250% is
500% which then comes in real close the 5x nominal income gains of the wealthy made over last 20 years so I have reverse engineered
the causation in round numbers, back of the napkin.
So it is all the same, one original sin, cannibal terror satanist taxation usury all the same thing.
And that is not even half of it. The amount of currency equal to the net change in output had to be printed into the
system debt free usury free. This is what the constitution means when it said, money is to be coined and valued, sufficient to meet the
production and movement of goods.
If some mythical new capital appeared into the system in order to produce new goods free to the system, how were those goods every
received into the
system (purchased) if the currency equal to the value of the goods was not printed debt free and usury free.
Because is the steady state equilibrium system, the excess currency does not exist to receive the goods unless new usury free
debt free currency is created equal to the new creation value.
Its overly simple natural law math and constitution LAW, and that simple reality of universal truth gets to the purpose of the pig
ignorant federali de-education (conscription).
Or in other words, the system is engineered so that all value comes out of the labor and they just die, tax and terror pigs to
the slaughter.
would you have bought the deepest part of bottom fall out in 2008?.........or buy PM?........
End inflation and Restore prosperity: Guillotine the banksters and their violence-puppets, criminal and tyrannical government.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
You have to cut a few banksters to make a prosperity omelet.
Fiat depreciating? Time to buy stawks
" do they know they are watching re-runs?"
I was having trouble sleeping last night...too much pollen in the air. and I came across an episode of Bonanza. I haven't seen one in over 40 years. damn it was pretty good. Ricardo Montalban was a Bannock Indian.
They sure make shit now on tv...just like the fed's arse wipe paper.
+1 for the pollen, i empathise, or is that sympathy, i could never figure thoise two out
same as above
probably both words will work.
Mrs Vigor needs the bedroom window open and I need it shut to keep the pollen out. Its a silent battle that I always loose about 4:00 AM
.
The rich control everything and are the source of our problems. Talking to politicians is useless. US elections are rigged by the rich with predetermined outcomes. Participating in them only gives the rich the mantle of legitimacy which they don't deserve.
Bullets are the sole form of protest available to the American People.
A friend gave me a new phrase yesterday..., apparently started in Tucson....."Embrace the Suck"
"Why buy new, when used will do"?
why buy at all? just give your neighbor a call.
hey be nice
find your "inner lemmingness " lemmings are people too u know
Plunging sales is very Bullish...good for 4% boost to the NYSE.
Gentlemen please! Calm down and stop yellen.
lmao
y'all recall this little ditty?
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So lets sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Writen in 1929 by, in part, Jack Yellen.
Coincidence?
You decide!
This edition of our puppet show has almost reached its conclusion...Join us for next year's, new and improved puppet show. With a completely different cast of characters, improved string-pulling, new scripting, talking points and promise of hope & change!
You'll never know the real inflation rate.
Food Packaging is getting smaller, but the same price.
Same as McDonalds, they're getting smaller to maintain the same price.
The Government is borrowing money to help subsides the Food Producers to keep prices down. As well as subsidising Oil Exploitation to keep prices down at the pump.
Just another reason why rates won't go up, regardless of what Old Yellen or her Minions say.
In 1984 I was told to buy best furniture I should not consider price just what I
wanted because price would just get worse and unobtainable. I was buying furniture agian lately and
got curious to check, the exact pieces and manufacturer are selling today, Henkel Harris reproductions,
the $500 piece 1984 is now $2500. 5 times.
My income is only 4.3 times and my tax is 4 times, net loss, without 100% full free benefits without paid pension.
Living standard is probably just a little better in the false premise of material sense, while professional output is multiples higher,
As china manufactured goods offset some federal statute fraud wastes and corruption, I dont have much use for gagetry and
dont benefit as much from chinese goods. For sure I know my first VCR at $400 was a big painful expense in 1983.
Living standard in human qualities is obviously multiples worse hinging on cannibal genocide, the abyss of hell.
That is one of luciferian tv operations, to substitute technology for humanity.
Capitalist evolutions of material quality and technology is the false perception of living standard
but it is not and not worth the loss of humanity.
Ah, the good old days!
No cell phones, Facebook, GMO's etc, and watching porn on a VCR.
I bought a box of raisins last week. It had 3 raisins in the box.
We never needed to know the real inflation rate before we had central banks. We made millions of individual and independent decisions on what we should pay and what price we should sell, and things worked pretty damne well. If there was a failure somewhere, it was isolated, and never threatened the entire economic system.
What ails us is clear....groupthink and group control, all originating from the Federal Reserve.
There was also a Time when nobody outside of Wall St knew who the CEO of JPM and GS was or even cared. But I'll bet more people can name the Criminal Bankers running the Criminal Banks than they can Presidents.
It can be summed up nicely thus: It's all fucked up.
Sprott, Inc, SIL.TO off 20% since late June.
Excellent work, gentlemen.
US inflation data is all fake.
If you plug in real inflation then GDP was 8.9% lower in 2014
Just look at how we fix inflation:
Chapwood Index shows real inflation in US.
In 2014, it was 9.7% - 1212% of official US inflation (0.8%)
http://www.chapwoodindex.com/
The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.
Let's use a Zero Coupon Bond Calculator to see the effect of fake inflation on a $1000 bond for 30 years:
A zero coupon bond is a bond bought at a price lower than its face value, with the face value repaid at the time of maturity
With Fed's 0.8% fake inflation, Zero Coupon Bond Value = $787.38
With Chapwood inflation of 9.7%, Zero Coupon Bond Value = $62.20
So with Fed's inflation assumption, you can borrow $787.38 for 30 years and pay $212.62 as interest
With Chapwood inflation, you borrow $62.20 for 30 years and pay $937.80 as interest
With Chapwood Index, if you borrow $787.38 for 30 years, you pay $11,871 as interest. Or 55.83 times that with the Fed's inflation adjustment.
Sub human sheep still do no have a clue abaut what's going on
Money I could invest in my business is taken away by the government daily to give money to people who produce nothing. It's called "heaven", "a worthy goal", "nirvana", "the right thing to do", "creating a perfect society", and I'm sure you can add another 50 or so dumb feel good slogans. Problem is, I'm not investing in my business, so productivity levels are "locked in". The state government even charges tax on money I borrow from the bank. Yep, I pay tax on borrowed money. Capitalist lesson #1 is to minimize overhead. So fuck borrowing money. I'll just put aside cash for the future to improve my business so I won't have to borrow. Oh wait... what do you mean negative interest rates on my savings?...
Thats just bullshit. You pay no more taxes because of the free shit army. Back when there was non FSA tax rates were much higher. I am so fucking sick of that false argument. Stop it already!
I would also say what would happen to business if there was no FSA spending money they are unable to earn? You would be looking at retail sales down 25% and few businesses able to make it.
So thank your lucky stars for the FSA. You aren't paying for it and it likely is the one of the few things keeping you in business.
taxes rates are not prorated down with inflation and not with long term compounding of inflation,
on a micro scale if federal inflation is reported 2% and your net tax is 30%, and hypothetically the
worker got annual cost of living, did they get the reported 2% inflation cola, or did they get
2% inflation plus 30% tax on the 2% equals 2.6%, try compounding that loss over 20 years now, I just picked 20 years
as the reference when the income lost half its purchasing power each 20 years.
Is slightlyskeptical Nancy Pelosi?
"So thank your lucky stars for the FSA. You aren't paying for it and it likely is the one of the few things keeping you in business."
So who IS paying for it?
Just curious.
I think he misunderstands what the "free" part of Free Shit Army is referring to. It doesn't mean it is the world's most affordable army.
"You pay no more taxes because of the free shit army."
Dumbest, most utterly idioitic shit I've ever read. Thanks for the laugh imbecile.
SS, are you nuts?
I think he is just venting about his taxes staying high even tho we just borrow more to pay for war and his high taxes are unnecessary. You are correct that the FSA is a drop in the bucket compared to paying for war and interest on debt, ending the war and ending the Fed should be top priority.
FSA is a drop in the bucket compared to paying for war and interest on debt,
Oh, a follow up idiot too. Please break it down what you consider the expenses of the FSA because they have far and away exceeded war and interest.
Bullshit. Roughly 70% of the federal budget goes to wealth transfer programs. Defense (war) takes roughly 18 percent. Learn math. The FSA takes almost FOUR (4, quatro) times more money than military and the FSA produces zero products other than farts, peeing out the digested Ripple and shitting out the digested Moon Pies.
Education get's the largest share if looked at as total government spending. Followed closely by Pensions, just upper middle class welfare itself, then again so is education if you follow the money to the end.
Yes, K-12 is a make-work program for high-functioning retards.
Yes, K-12 is a make-work program for high-functioning retards.
+1 that's the best one I've read in a week! Rockon Beechez
"ending the war and ending the Fed should be top priority."
Wisest suggestion since Lehman.
"In the basket of goods of the Working Poor, there is only food and shelter."
...and healthcare. Pay $1000 fine because you can't afford insurance, then take it up the keister because the "providers" can charge you an undisclosed full price since you don't belong to one of the discount cartels' protection rackets.
Its not a fine, its a "shared responsibility payment". I got one.
Its a "tax' - whether you choose the "shared responsibility payment" or a monthly "tax/premium " payment to an insurance company.
just remember that no insurance company owes you a benefit for a "tax" payment.
Makes sense. Here in Fort Collins, CO, a brand new shopping center is being build on the site of the old Foothills Mall. I can't wait till it's finished so I can wander the empty halls...
We'll be lucky to make it to 2016 without a crash. It's more of a 7 year cycle than an 8 year one.
1987, 1994(bond 'crash'), 2001, 2008, ??
Yeah I thought that also. I had to use up all my fingers and take my socks off but those are the years I remember...1980 was a prick too with the 20% interest rates.
In 1987 I listen to the crash on the radio at work...they asked sam walton who was the richest man in the world right then, "What was it like to lose two billion dollars over night?" He said he didn't know he had two billion dollars. Those old boys had a good sense of humour.