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"Something Revolutionary Is In The Air": Grexit By "Insurrection" Is The "Most Probable" Outcome
A week ago, we said the following about the situation faced by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras when he and his new finance minister arrived in Brussels for the final round of bailout negotiations earlier this month:
...the entire world looked on in horror as Alexis Tsipras - who just days earlier secured a crucial referendum victory which by all accounts empowered him to ride into Brussels a conquering hero - was eviscerated by German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble and several like-minded EU finance ministers who smelled blood after Greece submitted a proposal that betrayed the Greek PM’s lack of conviction.
In short, Tsipras made a fatal error. In an act of alarming defiance, he boldly called for a referendum on creditors’ proposals, campaigned for a "no" vote, and then, once 61% of the Greek populace gave their leader a mandate to reject more austerity, he proceeded to resubmit the very same proposal Greeks had just voted against. That told EU officials that Tsipras had no intention of leveraging the referendum outcome and from there, the "mental waterboarding" was on.
Now, Greece is stuck with a deal that promises more of the same austerity measures that have so far served only to prolong an intractable recession and indeed, without some manner of debt relief or re-profiling, the new program has no chance of success.
Given all of this, it isn’t surprising that economists are once again beginning to talk about Grexit, and indeed, who can blame them? It’s difficult to take seriously the idea that the new "deal" has taken a Greek exit off the table when German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble still claims that a Greek exit from the EMU might be the country’s best chance at a "classic" haircut and economic recovery. Here’s Bloomberg with more on why Grexit is "back on the agenda":
Don’t pack away the currency presses just yet, Greece’s euro exit may be back on the table next year.
There’s still a danger that Greece will be forced out of the euro region by the end of 2016, according to 71 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey of 34 economists. Seventy percent said they reckon Greece should be safe for the rest of 2015, though almost half said they thought the 86 billion-euro ($93 billion) bailout package Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is targeting will prove to be too small.
While Tsipras is checking off the requirements to qualify for a third bailout, the flaws in the agreement he hammered out with euro-area leaders last week are fueling concerns that Greece will struggle to implement the three-year program.
The European creditors are refusing to firm up their commitment to restructuring Greece’s debts, a move the International Monetary Fund says is essential for the country to stabilize its finances. There are also doubts about the 50 billion-euro target for asset sales and, more fundamentally, the merits of forcing more austerity on a shattered economy.
'Without some form of debt relief, the package will never be big enough," Peter Dixon, a global economist at Commerzbank AG in London, said in his response to the survey. "Loading additional loans onto a country which cannot afford to repay them corresponds to Einstein’s definition of insanity: Trying the same thing over and over again in the expectation of different results."
“Apart from Germany, it appears that most people are in agreement that Greece needs a substantial debt writedown," said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Merrion Capital Group Ltd. in Dublin. "Unless they get it, it is hard to see the country surviving within the euro zone indefinitely."
Well, no. It’s not that Germany isn’t in agreement about whether Greece could use a debt writedown.
In fact, Schaeuble explicitly acknowledged that Athens needs debt relief less than a week ago. For the Germans it isn’t about whether Greece needs a writedown, it’s about whether Greece will get a writedown, and as long as the country remains in the currency bloc and Germany still holds the purse strings, there will be no haircut for the Greeks.
If, however, Greece were to take Schaeuble’s "time-out" from the euro, Germany has hinted writedowns might be possible and that, in and of itself, shows that indeed, the idea of a Grexit has by no means been confined to the annals of European history.
Here with more on all of the above including Tsipras’ tactical error and the country’s inevitable break with Brussels is Eurointelligence’s Wolfgang Münchau:
Originally published in FT:
Alexis Tsipras should never have hired Yanis Varoufakis as his finance minister. Or he should have listened to him, and kept him on. But instead the Greek prime minister chose the worst of all options. He followed Mr Varoufakis’ advice of rejecting the offer of the creditors — until last week. But having done this, Mr Tsipras committed a critical error by rejecting Mr Varoufakis’ plan B for the moment when the country’s banks closed down: the immediate introduction of a parallel currency — IOUs issues by the Greek state but denominated in euros. A parallel currency would have allowed the Greeks to pay for their daily transactions when cash withdrawals were limited to €60 a day. A total economic collapse would have been avoided.
But Mr Tsipras did not go for this, or indeed any other plan B. Instead he capitulated. At that point, he was no longer even in a position to choose a Grexit — a Greek exit from the eurozone. The economic precondition for a smooth departure would have been a primary surplus — before debt service — and an equivalent surplus in the private sector. Greece has no foreign exchange reserves. If the Greeks were to reintroduce the drachma, they would have had to pay for all of their imports with the foreign exchange earnings of their exports. These minimum preconditions were in place in March but not in July.
So, like his predecessors, Mr Tsipras ended up with another very lousy bailout deal. And this one suffers from the same fundamental flaws as its predecessors. This leads me to conclude that Grexit remains the most likely ultimate outcome after all.
There are three principal ways in which this can happen. The first is that a deal is simply not concluded. All that was agreed last week is for negotiations to start, plus some interim financing. A deal might fail because principal participants themselves are sceptical. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, says he will keep up his offer of a Grexit in his drawer, just in case the negotiations fail. Mr Tsipras denounced the agreement on several occasions last week. And the International Monetary Fund is telling us that the numbers do not add up, and that it will not sign unless the European creditors agree to debt relief.
A more likely Grexit scenario is that a programme is agreed and then fails. The Athens government may implement all the measures the creditors demand, but the economy fails to recover and debt targets remain elusive. Mr Tsipras already agreed last week that if this situation arose, he would pile on more austerity. So, unless the economy behaves in future in a very different way from the way it behaved in the past, it will remain trapped in a vicious circle for many years to come. At that point, Mr Tsipras, or his successor, could concede defeat and opt for a negotiated Grexit as the least painful option. Grexit could also be forced on them by the creditors.
My own most likely Grexit scenario is a different one yet again. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, hinted at this in his interview with the Financial Times last week when he said that he felt "something revolutionary" in the air. He is on to something. The most probable scenario for me is Grexit through insurrection.
In other words, after suffering untold humiliation at the hands of creditors, Greeks will eventially be pushed to their breaking point.
Scavenging through the trash for food, lining up at banks to receive rationed euros, scarcities of imported goods - eventually enough will be enough. Once Greek society reaches the tipping point, a popular revolt - an "insurrection" or "something revolutionary" - will follow.
At that juncture, officials in Brussels will proceed to the 13th floor of the Berlaymont building, open the safe a few meters down from EU President Jean-Claude Juncker’s office, and dust off the Grexit "Black Book."
Next, the streets of Athens will "fill with the sounds of tanks."
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I doubt a Grexit by any means will be 'allowed' by the Troika. I can certainly imagine the other EU countries (backed by the ECB and pushed on by Germany) 'invading' Greece to save it.
<We had to destroy the country to save it.>
Oh duh.
What fucking sense does that make!/
You think the Troika is going to FORCE Greeks to work to pay them back!?
That's called a war.
lol
And you think what is presently going on between the Troika and Greece is NOT war? There is plenty of precedent both here in the US and internationally if you can look past the generally accept propaganda. The northern US went to war with the US south to prevent its secession, though it was carefully masked as NOT about 'that' using skillful propaganda.
Greece and the Death of Democracy, Economics and Civility ... ... ...
SO THAT THEY CAN BE REBORN!
Just think of all the Euros the ECB can create to 'rebuild' Greece after it destroys it. The history of Europe is not of one happy continent all holding hands around the camp fire singing Kum Ba Yah.
how about an economic fire literally in the streets and the restless natives are chanting fuck germany?
Yesterday, I listened to all of Beethoven’s. 5th and 9th Symphony’s.
Geez, no wonder the Germans are such disturbed people.
..just a good thing that Wagner was into lullabies… J
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGU1P6lBW6Q
c'mon gimme a break.. take a joke or else we are all f'd
This is all getting a little too banal...
Greece: We are going to exit the EU...
Troika: No, you are not...
Greece: But the people voted...
Troika: We don't care, you still have to pay...
Greece: Err, read my lips, fuck off Angela...
Troika: We will wipe your bloodline off of the face of the earth...
Greece: Well, since you put it that way!!!
You make it sound like it’s serious or something..
Geez, it’s summer.. just go sleep on the beach, put a net in the water and catch a fish.
If the Germans invade.. call some Russians,
They have partied before.
When EU invades...will it be to "free the slaves"? No. It will be to continue their slavery. Just like in the US in 1861.
Lincoln was a master of "newspeak".
.. and he really did not give a shit about the Negros.. he was just into big government..
he printed his own greenbacks to finance the war.. and the Rot Shilds took him out.
A burned-out Greece is a valuable marketing tool for the central planners who want to strip away sovereignty with a globalist/collectivist united states of Europe - they can point to the Greek ashes and tell Italy and Spain that collectivist Europe or fire is their choice.
Exactly. This is the start of the end game that the introduction of the Euro envisioned.
A monetary union without a fiscal union was insanity from the start. The plan was always a United States of Europe with a centralized government but Europe didn't want that. This is the way to force them to do it lest they be subjected to the horrors that are about to befall the Greeks.
Most likely civil war, abject poverty, etc....
These fuckers will stop at nothing to get it done.
Castro made the error of bucking TPTB, and even with popular support, it isolated Cuba for decades.
Right now, for Greece to be further isolated risks all the infrastructure and modern convenience.
There isn't much future in goat herding and hunting and gathering.
Greece has been and will be the AIG equivalent to funnel money to European insolvent banks.
This game is too big to fathom even for the most sofisticated brains. There is either a geopolitical power play or a financial super play similar to the BOE Pound shorting by Soros or both.
Who is behind all this, I have no idea but the usual suspects may be imvolved. This may end up being the bigest conspiracy of all time.
Greece is the Archiduke and banks, currecies, gold and fertile and key real estate are the coveted "all the marbles."
May the best conspirator win.
They would have to take out Macedonia, too.. they are all the same people..
but.. there will be a Russian pipe up their butts soon...
Sorry Vickie.. you ugly c-word.
You use the 'C', but in order to have the visceral impact necessary to really piss them off, you gotta get your 'K' on...
Troika: We will wipe your bloodline off of the face of the earth...
Yup. Standard bankster operating procedure.
If you think those are bad, listen to Shostakovich and Prokofiev. I recommend Shostakovich Symphony 5.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FF4HyB77hQ
Rule #1
Government can never,ever,ever tell you the truth, it is totally verboten.
This means that since 71% of Economists think Grexit, there is a 100% chance there is no Grexit -
Greece will be allowed to exit, default on their euro debt and print their own currency.
Greece. will then be undermined to cause a further collapse of their economy. The Euro authorities will point to them as the consequences of repudiating debt and seeking sovereignty
Then how does Angela Merkel survive because the only solution that ethe eventuality you propose is for the ECB to print shit loads of Euros to provide liquidity for the EU banks.
Germans have a national remembrance of inflation and it's root cause - money printing. Start printing money and Fritz on the street get's angry.
They will just have to leave the land behind.
The reality is that this marriage cannot and should not be saved. Irreconcilable differences. Big time. It was a bad match in every way from the start. Only the lawyers prolonging the agony for the money will benefit by dragging it out as long as possible. No thought for the long term damages inflicted on those directly involved. Take the money and run, let the chips fall where they may. As long as the rift keeps widening and the counselling continues there is money to be made.
The Greeks ALL need to understand the terms of divorce, incorporate at least some of the financial vocabulary into their lexicon, and brace for the social and personal responsibility that will follow. Less than that they should accept being EU slaves.
The socialist freebie entitlement system has the Greeks reduced to petulant adolescents who are reliant on allowances from parents who want something in exchange. Then they respond by attacking their benefactors and demanding ever more money in exchange for being left alone. They won't move out of the house but they demand to be treated like independent adults. This will come to a very bad end.
economic war fought with the pen first. anger could certainly replace the pen FAST.
just sayin and observing...
It was called the Reconstruction Era. Boy, did they ever.
Cognitive Dissonance... what has the US civil war to do with Greece? if you are looking for a precedent, then there is a very, very specific one:
when we had the Latin Monetary Union, which btw was about gold and silver coins, and Greece left it
you moan about the "generally accepted mainstream propaganda" only to lap it in full from the "generally accepted fringe propaganda"?
Also pegged to the LMU was Austria-Hungry & France.
But its different this time. Countries that share a currency never go to war against one another.
I think at this stage there is only sarcasm left to counter all this siliness:
yes, Germany is already invading Greece
by the end of the year, some two million Germans will have been in Greece, this summer
oh, and they are all camouflaged with the newest military uniform: "Tourist B". it's a variant of "Tourist C", the one used for amphibious operations
"Tourist C" is banned in some countries and very controversial, because it involves... Speedos
TUI, one of the involved war parties, says this year's operations might break the record of last year (German):
http://www.faz.net/agenturmeldungen/unternehmensnachrichten/tui-rekordja...
I'm poking fun at the bullshit narrative so many morons on the continent parrot that "the Euro prevents war" when 101 years ago -- their "common currency prevents war" schtick was proven false.
Then there is Yugoslavia -- but this time is different.
yes, they might be morons, yes, it is a bullshit narrative. but here Cog and many others seem to think that this european distaste for war is somehow something... superficial
Tourist will invade Greece and unemployed Greek youth will invade Germany, England and Norway thus lowering the labour rate and raising the average IQ in these countries as well.
there is a Scottish joke about such things: "A Scot leaves Scotland to live in England and manages to raise the average IQ of both nations"
i have heard that joke many times with different nationalities in different countries, e.g. New Zeraland & Australia, even between north and south Belgium.
The US Civil War is not a perfect precedent, but there are plenty of similarities. The point was to demonstrate 'war' amongst people who appear to share many commonalities. Over here in the US "We the People" suffer from the "We would never do THAT'" syndrome and I wanted to illustrate an example reasonably well know to "We the People Who Have Our Heads Up Our Ass".
The European's generally have a broader perspective on 'history' and what governments can, and have, done to their own people. And the EU, while composed of many 'sovereign' countries, is a quasi government of the EU countries.
cog, you don't understand. even the word "war" has positive connotations in the US and negative connotations in Europe
to the point that we can't even contemplate phrases like "war on..." in our political discussions
the idea of let's say a French or a German government even thinking about going to war versus Greece... they would not last two seconds, and would be out
you have no frigging idea how much the common european abhors war. 99% of all european distaste for all things "American" is about your sympathy for war
and you have not undestood how fast we throw out a government that is seriously out of tune with what the general electorate thinks
I am quite certain your perspective of the EU is much better than mine if for no other reason than your close proximity and my distance. So I must assume Europeans are in full agreement with the 'war' presently being waged on Russia (and various other countries) by the US and the EU since no EU governments have been toppled over the issue.
cog, aren't you just highlighting the use and misuse of that word again? call a spade a spade: it's an embargo
it is a frigging embargo
but does it have casualties? ARE RUSSIANS STARVING, LIKE GERMANS 1919? no
in the same way that I don't like to see a crime if there are no victims, I don't like to call an embargo an act of war if there are no casualites
meanwhile, plenty of europeans and Russians are very busy breaking that embargo, as Rhett Butler in "Gone with the wind". so much for "full agreement", or "freedom fries"
Ucrainians are starving though.
because of an embargo? by whom?
Lybia, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Mali, Pakistan, Yemen - all with the blessings of the good EU.
Yeah, we despise war, that's too obvious.
Thank you! Ghordius is a sophisticated, educated, and dangerous propagandist for a new and longer-lived German Reich, by his own admission. We will see soon enough what the outcome of such thinking will lead to. It is so sad and ironic that the very thing held up as the ostensible sine qua non of the EU, a new sort of economic 'peace in out time', (muttered gleefully sotto voce with a wink and a nod by the European Nordics) . . . is destined to lead through intimidation to first economic evisceration of entire nations, then virtual enslavement, and ultimately rebellion . . . which can only lead to untold death and destruction. What a novel manner of 'avoiding the horror of war'!
I call bullshit. Righteousness and arrogance, and nothing less. We all know that politics, especially economic politics, is just war by another means. But to see it wrapped in such elegant weasely clap-trap is enough to make a man's stomach turn.
"...by his own admission"? where? you mistake amateur student of propaganda with propagandist, I fear
France, Italy, etc. have bombed Lybia, Germany had troops in Afghanistan, etc. etc. the nation-states. they have armies, and navies, and so on
in fact, if you mention Lybia... well, Greece was there, too, with it's frigate Lymnos and some helicopters
-------------
"We all know that politics, especially economic politics, is just war by another means" are you sure you mean it this way? all politics? not the other way round, like the original phrase?
Dear Ghordius, shall I resurrect your recent commentary extolling the virtues of the long-lived first and second Reich (I believe you suggested a millenium or more), or just leave it alone. You may color yourself here as just an 'amateur student of propaganda', but your incessant and relentless defense of the indefensible regarding the EU and Greece leads me to believe "propagandist" is the more apt term.
As for Clausewitz, his contention that "war is merely the continuation of policy (politics) by other means" becomes utter nonsense if not considered in its corollary, i.e., that politics is thus merely a respite from war, hence my comment above that "politics, especially economic politics, is just war by another means." I am not the only one to arrive at this conclusion.
Henry A. Kissinger, however, described Lenin's approach as being that politics is a continuation of war by other means, thus turning Clausewitz's argument "on its head."[25]
Rapoport argued that:
Ghordius, Germans were not starving. In fact they were fed by the allies to keep the war going. Not one shot was fired on German soil all that time. The war was planned in the 1890's with the Germans as the designated baddies. The bank scams (BIS, Fed, etc. ) were all planned in anticipation of the post-war fire sale.
By 1916 the Germans had pretty much won, and the Kaiser floated a treaty to stop it all and go back to pre-war conditions. The planners freaked at the thought of all that money being lost, and got the Brits and Americans to continue the war's ultimate goals.
During the war, Brit. Adm. Consett was assigned to Stockholm and noticed supplies from all over the British Empire being funneled into Germany via Stockholm and Copenhagen. How's that for treason at the highest levels. But the clever Admiral quietly documented everything and published a book about it after the war. It is called, "The Triumph of Unarmed Forces."
That war like every war since was planned in fancy conference rooms with no thought for the millions of lives lost. The planners consider all of us debris whether dead or alive.
you seem to refer to this: "The total blockade was lifted on 17 January 1919 when the Allies allowed the importation of food under their supervision... ", but not this:
"German official statistics estimated 763,000 civilian malnutrition and disease deaths were caused by the blockade..."
"This figure was disputed by a subsequent academic study that put the death toll at 424,000..."
the timeframe of the famine is between the armistice and the peace treaty, "The restrictions on food imports were finally lifted on 12 July 1919 after Germany signed the Treaty of Versailles "
I still abhor all kind of embargos, blockades and so on. In my eyes, they are sieges, one of the worst kind of acts of war
nevertheless, they are not in the same category of evil when they are not driving anybody to starvation. Refusing to export weapons comes to mind
Ghordius, I agree that blockades and santions are brutal sieges which only subject the target population(s) to widespread social destruction and painful death. Where we differ is that you believe what is written about that war and I don't. Everyone in Europe was targeted one way or another to serve the accursed NWO. You cannot accept official history without some skepticism.
Weapons are purposely imported/exported because war, chaos, killing, terror, etc., means big business, and the buying/selling is far beyond the reach of common decency. Bloodshed is of no concern to the traders because it's neither their blood nor anyone they know.
Do you really think that the ISIS killers have the money to by all those weapons and vehicles? No way, they can't even read. They were and still are aimless losers who had to be content just abusing their womenfolk, children, street vendors, even animals. Then they got weapons and hit the big times. Murder at will no questions asked.
They all derive from the same Source of Evil, they differ only in form. They are all rotten to the core. But every once in a while we get a detailed glimpse into their iniquity which is why Consett's book is so important.
"Where we differ is that you believe what is written about that war and I don't."
As an American, it took me almost 30 to years to come to this conclucion on war in general (I'm 54). It appears Ghordo is still drinking the MSM Kool Aid from his youth.
I'm sure it was more like 6 million.
Ghordius
Should we exclude the UK as being in Europe?
Shall we forget Libya? The servility to US policies?
NATO? Do any European governments have war merchants?
European governments act and sound belligerent to me.
Syria? The French activities in Africa?
"how fast we throw out a government ..." Hollande? (or is he in sync with French militarism?)
Europeans may abhor war, but if it is marketed as "humanitarian intervention"
they and their governments seem eager to go along.
I'm sure you know the Goring quote about how to lead a pacifist population to war.
No "war on" Greece, but "salvation", "stability", "halting terrorism", "NATO treaty",
"assistance to the Greek authorities", etc. etc.
http://www.sigmalive.com/en/news/greece/129935/kammenos-meets-us-under-s...
+1 you do have several points there that would deserve a very detailed discussion
nevertheless, the whole thread started on a premise several grades of whackyness beyond that, so no, now I am seriously too lazy to go in there
+1 for if it is marketed as "humanitarian intervention"
"humanitarian intervention"
Orwellian doublespeak for
"genocide"
Ghordius
a description of recent markedly increased European militarization
(provided along with the lame and ludicrous alleged 'justification'.)
http://news.yahoo.com/europe-puts-finger-trigger-080000709.html
Are you joking or just stupid?
The only thing u want to read is when some Greeks hang some ei finance ministers
My own scenario involves little white unicorns crapping skittles and jelly beans while farting rainbows and lightning,
forcing the evil Troika back to the depths of hell they came from.
Leaving all the happy untaxed Greeks living happily ever after on their islands, feasting on skittles and jellybeans
for all eternity.
The military will be ruling Greece for years as it has done in the past. Maybe, they can hire Wesley Clark as a consultant:
Rumbles of military coup as Greek workers demand end to EU austerityHours before anti-austerity demonstrators flooded the streets of central Athens on Friday, a number of retired Greek military officers publicly called for a “yes” vote in Sunday's referendum on the European Union's demands, defying Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's call for a “no” vote.
The contrast between masses of workers denouncing EU austerity and the pronouncements of prominent military figures could not have been starker. Retired General Fragkoulis Fragkos, a former defense minister and one-time head of the Greek army general staff, called for a “loud yes on Sunday.” In 2011, Fragkos was cashiered by then-Prime Minister George Papandreou amid rumors of a coup.
Clearly referring to Tsipras, Fragkos said that “the moral values and principles that have always defined us Greeks are not under negotiation with any clueless and historically ignorant [politician] who is advancing his own party interest.”
A group of 65 retired high-ranking officers issued a statement citing their “oath to the Fatherland and the Flag” and warning, “By choosing isolation, we place the Fatherland and its future in danger.”
The statement continued: “The strength of our country is the most important thing we have, and this is being put in jeopardy. Our exit from Europe will make our country weaker. We will lose allies that have stood by our side. We will lose the strength we gain from associations and groupings to which we belong historically and culturally.”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/07/04/pers-j04.html
So the military wants to stay in (because they get to play with cool German weapons) while the people want out.
Seems like a great little civil-war coming. All we need is a Russian warm-water port & finalize the gas pipeline, and civil war is all but guaranteed.
Yeah, these cool German weapons that were part of the 1st 'bailout' agreement with Greece.
The military wants to stay in since they are on the EU payroll probably. Bankers, politicans and high ranking military are usually in bed togehter.
H-T, just a personal question. Our friend Ghor says your really just a Texan, somewhat demeaningly (he is so passive-agressive, ain't he), and just wondered how you find yourself in Deutschland. Btw, thanks for all your commentary.
Military people are very conservative people and always see themselves as 'defenders of the fatherland' -especially these old farts of retired generals who can't stand that their roles are over- while nobody asks them to do so. They should just remain in their quarters and respond to foreign invasions.
Pensions. It is all about govt workers and retirees staying on the EU dole while the other Greeks starve. The generals want to keep getting their pensions.
They don't want austerity, because it's tough, but they don't want Drachmas either. They want their pensions in Euros.
They want their cake and they want to eat it.
Is a financial war not a war? The Troika are not foreigners?
It is amusing to see Germany hold so tight to the notion of no haircut when Germeny herself was the beneficiary so many years ago.
Pay attention when an old dog barks.
you have not defined your "financial war". meanwhile, no, in every "institution" of the Troika you'll find Greeks
actually, you will also find Greeks among the bankers that made that mess. since Greek is a language that not many foreigners speak, nearly all foreign contacts with Greece have Greeks on board
but if this discussion reaches today's levels of whackyness, you might want to suggest: "all traitors!"
Yes, Greek banks also responsible for that mess but they are also required according to Basel II rules to keep a certain percentage of government bonds. Don't know if foreign banks operating in Greece are required to do so. Correct me if I am wrong. Greek banks and their depositors also had to accept a haircut on these bonds. Greek friend of mine lost 75.000 Euro that way. Thought government bonds were safe.
actually Basel II rules are all about encouragements. banks need less capital for gov bonds, depending from the grade. it's all leverage rules, if you want (and crazy, imho)
government bonds are safe, generally. it just happens that they aren't always safe. same applies to banks and bank accounts. you use them for 20-60 years, think it's all fine and then... "it's gone!"
Well, it is just like with gold: if you don't hold it, you don't own it.
You are correct, Ghordius, I have not defined my "financial war" because I have no sophisticated means to do so. It's my opinion of the situation.
It sure seems to me that governments & financial institutions are aggressively seeking to make perpetual debt slaves out of anyone & everyone. Is that not engaging in a financial war? Enslaving those whom one has conquered financially.
I don't think I could go along with your suggestion that Greeks who work for foreign companies are traitors. That is a whole other level of whackyness. :-)
then I'll try a different way to make a comparison
Bob and Joe are brothers. Bob owes Joe 100 bucks. Bob says: "Joe, forgive me 30 or 50 and give me 15 more"
Joe says: "shouldn't you stop making more debts? your lifestyle is not that credit-worthy". then they bitch around and haggle more
at the end, Bob gets 15 more. who enslaved who and who conquered who? who created this new debt? Bob, Joe or... both?
Both are idiots, Ghordius. That's been part of the Greek problem all along, hasn't it? Who created the mess... the Greeks borrowing what they could not pay back or the institutions lending to those whom they knew couldn't pay back? Since both were in the wrong, both should have some pain from the fallout. But, it seems now that the institutions are not willing to accept their part, their pain. And, that was what prompted my comment about Germany not accepting a haircut even though Germany received just that a long while ago. If Germany had not been granted debt forgiveness, would it be the powerhouse today? Or would its people still be under austerity trying to pay off debt?
I got it. Bankers lied & cheated to get Greece into the Euro zone. The insitutions also lied to give Greeks loans that they couldn't repay. But does that change the inevitable outcome? Greece will default. And suffer for a long time no matter what happens - Grexit or being debt slaves.
Everyone is too busy worrying about whom to blame. Let's just fix the damn situation so that the Greeks have a future & the ones who loaned money unwisely have some pain. The constant unrelentling drama is ridiculous.
The touble is assigning personal qualities to institutions, "both are idiots". Corporations, banks etc, are not really people - though the law recognizes them as such.
As someone who's done deals for corporations, who cares if the customer can't pay back shit? Seriously once the credit is created, us executives get paid and we're off...see ya and good luck. All the people who made those deals years ago are living it up dude!
Just face it the system is wank and gets wanky results. The whole finance system is garbage rooted in the 18C and is not fit for purpose anyway.
True. The army people are barking up the wrong tree. And agree on your German haircut remark.
Want a Scooby snack?
Scooby dooby do! Of course I want a Scooby snack....
There's a good boy. Here is your scooby snack https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1u5Yir0E5Y
the ongoing greek trajedy. next year, really! between now and then sumting gonna happen, and my guess is its gonna be ugly. hunger pushes people to do nasty stuff...
edit; not to mention capitol flight, health care service and most importantly a fucking job to do to feel worthy of another day of debt servitude...
Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides would have a field day writing the tragic plays about what is unfolding there.
Germany deserves a massive Baader-Meinhof Gang revival. I'll cheer and celebrate when they get Merkel and Schauble very messily in public.
LOL, Baader-Meinhof were financed by the government like most so called "terrorists", no it's not conspiracy look it up.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/truth-money-iou-ban...
A Grexit coupled with a default of Greece on its debts would expose to the EU taxpayers that it is they who are on the hook to pay back these debts because these bailouts were bailouts of banks that made bad investments in Greece. If the EU taxpayers wake up to that reality (for now they are in a slumber induced by the MSM that these 'lazy Greeks took their money') tanks might be needed in Brussels then.
Greece already defaulted. What's your point?
There is a HUGE difference between defaulting on a payment, and refusing to repay the loans.
No, they paid the IMF and ECB. With money they got from the ECB and IMF. That bridge loan. So far they have not missed a payment, just postponed them and then paid them. They are not refusing to repay loans eiter. So what is your point then?
sorry, but this is "mental waterboarding":
"once 61% of the Greek populace gave their leader a mandate to reject more austerity, he proceeded to resubmit the very same proposal Greeks had just voted against"
Tsipras asked "do you want proposal X"? And then accepted proposal Y. I can't find any "do you give me a mandate to reject austerity" in the text of the referendum
and what is this "austerity"? use numbers to describe it, and let's see from there. does it entail... spending more then taxation allowes? that's making fresh debt, isn't it?
Moar like "mental masturbation" by the politicos on both sides cause they have no fucking clue how to solve the Greek problem.
Greek problem is easy to solve -- just no one wants to do it.
some pain vs way moar pain
either way way moar pain a coming.
take your medicine, greece, tell the ecb, trioka, germany to fuck off and get down to it...
Kicking Germany out of the Euro would solve everybody's problem.
They'd take a few with them.
Blaming Germany for everyone's problems is nothing but short sighted & stupid.
Given your avatar, haven you looked in the mirror lately?
Simple attempt to ridicule me and says more about you than about me.
Really, Germany going back to the D-Mark would make the rest of Europe competitive again. Germany played it smart. Its reunification tax funded cheap Euro filled the coffers of German financial institutions that then lent it to whomever wanted to borrow. Lower salary demands by German unions made German products cheaper. This all functioned also as export subsidy. Loans came back with interests. Some good old bribing by companies like Siemens also went along. And then when TSHF these financial institutions got a bailout and Germany's imposed austerity did the rest. That is how Germany became top dog in Europe. Going back to the D-Mark would help to correct that mistake.
headbanger you been around zh a while yet you write "they have no fucking clue how to solve the Greek problem."..the pols and breaurocrats main job is to create problems enlarge them and Never solve them ..gov goes out of business if they did solve our problems. you know this and yet it is hard to understand as it leads to an insane society which you see before you.
Godordo, and here I thought that 'mental waterboarding' was your specialty. Tut,tut. Is there some sanatorium we can help you to.
1 percent vs 99 percent. odds say 99 has the advantage, but til now numbers (in all senses) haven't mattered. hmmmm, moar bullshit, folks...
The 0.01% vs the 99% - with the 0.99% offered up by the oligarchy as scapegoats, to keep the torches and pitchforks of the 99% away from their ivy-covered fortress walls.
The 0.99% pays the biggest, most disproportionate share of the burden. The 0.01% has the tax havens, the 99% gets a few extra crumbs of subsidy thrown on top of the crumbs they earn. The 0.99% has neither advantage.
impoverished mal nurished serfs do not have the energy to revolt- in ameerica we generate obese clue less consumers who's only allowed joy is the persuit of the latest iphone or i pad and the vitual world of games and facebook..they will never revolt as obese are unable to and mind fucked as there is no app for revolution.
The Greeks maybe are not as Gruberized as merikans.
Remarkably malnourished serfs are more healthy than obese clueless consumers. Check out what all other primates are eating in the zoo or on youtube in the jungle. It's not beef and chicken.
Tsipras went against 61% of the population and when the little Greek sheeple wake up and realize their leader is the reason their pensions via 'capital controls' all went to Berlin through the Troika, there will be blood on the streets. The Fourth Reich's creation of newest its vassal state is now in motion.
Food for thought:
https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/category/the-fourth-reich/
Its just a testing ground for whats coming to the USA, in the near future.
encrypt that comment!
Free tool for generating austerity measures:
http://www.random-austerity-measure-generator.com/#
My first one was: "Portugal is obligated to pay 622627 Euros to Germany for no reason in two hours".
Too funny :-)
Ok, you got me... I laughed.
"If a rich greek has two cars, he should give one car to Germany and one car to a poor [NATION]. Then the poor person should give the car to Germany."
That one got me chuckling as well.
"Ireland needs to stop any kind of birthday gifts and hand over the money saved to Germany."
And no more 'tooth money' for Junior...He's got to learn how to take his losses like a man...
The new German Nazi party forgot one thing in their quest for total domination. When you have nothing, you have nothing to loose.
Gerald Celente always says: "when people have nothing to lose they lose it!"
The new German Nazi party forgot one thing in their quest for total domination. When you have nothing, you have nothing to loose.
"At that juncture, officials in Brussels will proceed to the 13th floor of the Berlaymont building, open the safe a few meters down from EU President Jean-Claude Juncker’s office, and dust off the Grexit..."
Maybe. But it's just as likely when they get to the 13th floor, the unelected cowards will barricade themselves in shouting "mummy mummy".
Perhaps someone can explain to me why insurrections & wars, etc are being fought in remote areas, like deserts or at the foot of mountains? Or in the own neighbourhood of the "revolutionaries", for that matter.
I would recommend visiting the leafy suburbs of Frankfurt (or Brussels), close to home of the political decision makers. I bet your cause will be solved within a week. They might even forgive you for that €365B+ loan you took out.
Just checked! Eurorail Select Youth Pass @ €271 for 5 days. Visit Greece, Italy, Switzerland and Germany. That's only 5 days @ €60.00 standing in the queue. http://www.eurail.com/eurail-passes/select-pass
Germany will be more leniant going forward, they go what they wanted, namely to scare voters in Spain, Italy, and France away from voting in Syriza like parties. One has to imagine people in Spain are looking at Greece and rethinking the whole Podemos thing.
It's really no different here.
A majority of the flag-waving, big-money TEA PARTY [bowel] movement members will vote in favor of whatever big war funding bill comes along next.
As long as the people keep electing governments whose number one goal is to preserve pensions and government salaries the Greeks will be slaves to Europe. Pensioners and government workers know that in a return to the drachma that their purchasing power will be greatly reduced, and thus they will demand to stay in the Euro no matter what the costs.
I say you have to give up I say roll the ball And let the chips fall where they may...
This is all bull. The majority of the Greek people will gladly swallow the blue pill with a glass of German piss.
Bring it on. Let's see how long Alexis and Yanis last against a real army. The FSA don't count---they'll shit themselves and run like rabbits at the sound of the first shot.
Then let's see some perp walks.
Greece's new military government will need maybe five minutes to dig up the evidence needed to send Greece's rich thieves of all parties to prison---and find out where they put all that money.
And here come the CIA snipers......
Who's that guy in the picture doing the full arm imitation of the Statue of Liberty?
They might bring the revolution to Brussels instead.
It will be like Hungary in 1956. And we are the bad guys.
http://time.com/3878232/the-hungarian-revolution-of-1956-photos-from-the...
No one will send tanks and soldiers to keep them in the Eurozone.
The Greeks want the € as their currency, because they can mave it abroad easily.
It is much more difficult to save your savings when you must convert a useless currency in a useful one (like €, $, etc.).
ANd they need to save their savings from their government predatory policies, not from the German predatory policies.
No one will send tanks and soldiers to keep them in the Eurozone.
The Greeks want the € as their currency, because they can mave it abroad easily.
It is much more difficult to save your savings when you must convert a useless currency in a useful one (like €, $, etc.).
ANd they need to save their savings from their government predatory policies, not from the German predatory policies.
this shitshow only ends with civil war
Should be readily apparent , the new Greek plan is to make use of the holes in the EU plan until such time as Greeks creditors grant Greece the huge discount in debt they are asking. The holes in the EU plan involve EU money passing to Greece only once the government passes the provisions the EU required. They will then be slow to enact most if not all of the provisions.
Economic instability brings political instability and everybody knows ,signed agreements can be ripped up unless you are willimg to go to war over them. Force the bankers and politicians to work in the fields for a decade so the pain can be shared equally.Communism may make a comeback in Greece , where democracy fails.
Communism needs to take over banks full of money to survive. They don't have that in Greece.
No money, no communism.
Communism in Greece may make a comeback? You're at least one Greek election late to the party. Tsipras is an avowed Communist and Varoufakis is an open Marxist. Why do you think they're so buddy buddy with Putin?
Insurrection - WHAT A RUBE!
The Greeks have been pacified with socialism, a majority employed by government or receiving government benefits. The only people that EVER riot are the brats because some benefit is being withheld or planning on being withheld. Its IDENTICALLY the same thing here (pacification), except slightly different version. Population is pacified with government largesse AND propped up markets where everybody has their retirement (anybody that has any, in any case). The rest are propped up with the enormous social welfare net.
Yeah - austerity sucks, but at least Greece is still part of the E.U. Nothing else really matters.
When people like Donald Tusk say they feel "something revolutionary in the air" you can be sure the EU/US and their Nazi friends are planning operation Ukraine in the Mediterranean.
Bullish!
greeks are fat and lazy at the moment(like almost all europeans). for an insurection hard, mean, lean and hungry is required. we're not there yet
Not sure about the fat part anymore. Seems like a good portion of them don't have two pennys to rub together.
Greek Spring. May spread.
The € is terrible for greece and should be abolished, but Schauble is the bad guy for trying to force grexit. Zerohedge logic.
I can't help but think that Grexit is precisely what ECB/Germany wants at this point. Once Greece leaves the gloves can really come off, I think Greece knows this. But so long as they stay and receive good treatment they telegraph to the other PIGS that the ECB can be rolled, which is a far greater danger to the EMU than a defaulting Greece. Something turned Tsipras abruptly. My guess it was the Germans calling their bluff, telling them to leave, and then also stating they would make it their life's work to make their lives a living hell once they go.
A donkey carrying gold will walk freely through every closed gate!
Greece will need at least 12 to 18 months to prepare for an exit from the Euro. If Tsipras's plan was to accept the Troika deal as a tactic in order to buy time to make the necessary preparations, then he could be considered wise strategist.
Printing presses do it much quicker. With computers and keyboards the rest is done in no time at all. Even Helicopter Ben promised to "drop" dollars from air as needed!
If you look at this as part of a movement to nwo, you can see the euro and debt as stalking horse, or bait: the meds take the bait as borrowers, and the north, as lenders. This provides the magnetic impetus. In the end the debt ownership concentrates. Enforcement of the obligation achieves the de facto political union. The point isn't repayment, it is enforcing and maintaining the obligation.
The premise of this article, that Tsipras capitulated from a position of strength, is simply wrong. Syriza were bluffing all along, because the only thing they could threaten their creditors with was a Grexit, but they could not do that, and retain their Euro-denominated govt salaries and pensions. The thing about bluffing is, once your bluff is called, it's over. Tsipras' bluff got called, end of story.
And austerity has only been destructive to the Greek economy, because leftists in power have chosen to make it so. Remember that when govt pays one group of people to dig a hole, and pays another group of people to fill it back in, this counts toward GDP. Even if the govt borrows the money to pay both groups, the spending is counted toward GDP, but the added debt is not part of the equation. Austerity, in theory at least, eliminates this wasteful activity, and yes, GDP as a number will go down, but that's misleading because it wasn't real Production at all, it was pure waste.
Unfortunately, Syriza's entire mandate was to protect the hole-digging-refilling portion of Greece's economy from austerity, forcing all the pain of adjustment onto the real productive economy. Which is why Tsipras and Varoufakis constantly proposed tax increases, and rejected any cuts in pensions or public sector employment.
Nope. It's over. The Greek populace has voluntarily accepted their chains. They want nothing more than the warm embrace of EU socialism. The only "revolution" will be when the EBT card from Germany runs out. But by all means, continue with this line of fantasy thinking.... it's good click bait.
Something revolutionary is indeed in the air, and I doubt the elephantine Tusk will escape unscathed.
Most everyone that watches the stock market either as an opportunist gambler or as an interested observer realizes all of the markets are rigged and controlled by the banksters.
Most everyone with any mathematical skill knows the crash of the economy is coming; it is just a matter of time. Marten Armstrong is predicting the crashing market event will accelerate beginning in October and that has been confirmed by the Jade Helm military exercise extended into October.
The bankster Washington Empire of Debt, Fraud and Chaos is on schedule in their fascist Orwellian plan to morph into the bankster fascist totalitarian New World Order Empire which will be completed with the signing of the secret TPP and other secret trade agreements. More war is next. Whoopee!
Most everyone that follows the central government planning process of the Council on Foreign Relation, Trilateral commission, United Nations, central banking of the IMF, World Bank and their many tentacle affiliates realizes the economic crash is by design to consolidate power and control by the consolidated multinational corporate monopoly fascist (government of, for and by the multinational monopoly).
Enough is enough! Nationalize the Federal Reserve! Throw the criminal banksters and their criminal cronies in government in prison! Repudiate the criminal banksters system of debt peonage! Requisition the Federal Reserve to serve the People to restart our Free Enterprise System economy (that is FREE from corporate monopoly) with requisitioned bank investments into the American manufacturing economy.
Impossible! You say. Well, the banksters think that their “natural right” is fascist total control over our government.
The public Bank of North Dakota is doing fine with the criminal element taken out of the banking system. Ellen Brown has printed volumes on the subject of nationalizing the Federal Reserve and establishing a National Bank that is free from the usury criminal element that fascist banksters call “natural right”.
Yes, criminals do occur “naturally” in societies but most civilized societies throw them in prison to protect society from their evil criminal elements. Ha. Ha. Ha.
Watch these dates Aug 7-20. There is no cash for Greece!
The article premises is the Greeks want a currency controlled by their government.
They don't. They know too well how good is their government at debasing their currency.
They wanted to enter in the Eurozone just for this reason, to have a German Mark like currency, not a Greek Drakma like currency. The government wanted to enter the Eurozone to be able to make debts and spend without an immediate devaluation of their currency. They got it and now the piper came to get paid.
There will not be any revolution, because there is no solution for the pensioneers and for the government employees (but I'm repeting myself).
The purchasing power of the pensions would be cutted in half if the government went out of the €. In a just-in-time economy with little buffer, in just a few weeks, prices in dracmas would rise to compensate the falling exchange rate.
They would be paid in dracmas, so good luck in esporting these in Germany to save them from the hands of their government.
Everyone know they can not pay their debts (like many others), what the Germans will not grant is a debt relief before they have reformed their economy (and their government) in a way allowing a permanent balanced budget, a primary surplus of the government budget. Granting a debt relief now would allow Greek's Government to start indebting itself again.
Granting a debt relief would flip the bill from the Greeks to the Germans taxpayers.
Then the German banks would start again to lend to Greece and after a few years they would be at the same point we were in 2010.
The Greek government can default on its debt everytime it want, for whatever reason it want. They just need a budget surplus and and and economy able to export as much or more than it need to import. If they have not these, they can have their worthless dracmas as much as they want but they will not buy anything abroad and little more at home.
The article premises is the Greeks want a currency controlled by their government.
They don't. They know too well how good is their government at debasing their currency.
They wanted to enter in the Eurozone just for this reason, to have a German Mark like currency, not a Greek Drakma like currency. The government wanted to enter the Eurozone to be able to make debts and spend without an immediate devaluation of their currency. They got it and now the piper came to get paid.
There will not be any revolution, because there is no solution for the pensioneers and for the government employees (but I'm repeting myself).
The purchasing power of the pensions would be cutted in half if the government went out of the €. In a just-in-time economy with little buffer, in just a few weeks, prices in dracmas would rise to compensate the falling exchange rate.
They would be paid in dracmas, so good luck in esporting these in Germany to save them from the hands of their government.
Everyone know they can not pay their debts (like many others), what the Germans will not grant is a debt relief before they have reformed their economy (and their government) in a way allowing a permanent balanced budget, a primary surplus of the government budget. Granting a debt relief now would allow Greek's Government to start indebting itself again.
Granting a debt relief would flip the bill from the Greeks to the Germans taxpayers.
Then the German banks would start again to lend to Greece and after a few years they would be at the same point we were in 2010.
The Greek government can default on its debt everytime it want, for whatever reason it want. They just need a budget surplus and and and economy able to export as much or more than it need to import. If they have not these, they can have their worthless dracmas as much as they want but they will not buy anything abroad and little more at home.
Pretty much what you said. However, this is not just about reforming the economy so they can pay. Greece will be sold off from under the Greeks - they will never be able to create enough euros to buy it back. It's the oldest trick in the book, even the ancient Hebrews knew about it. Seems to work every time though, from Mid-West farms in 1850 to an entire country in 2015.