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Greek Lawmakers Clear The Way For Formal Bailout Discussions
Update: 36 Syriza lawmakers did not support the bill.
As expected, the Greek parliament has approved a second set of prior measures, clearing the way for formal discussions on a third bailout program for the debt-stricken country.
As Bloomberg notes, "several lawmakers of governing Syriza party, including Parliament Speaker Zoi Konstantopoulou, former deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani didn’t support bill."
As a reminder, Wednesday's vote was largely a formality as the measures - which included EU rules on bank resolutions and civil justice reform - weren't expected to be as contentious as those presented to lawmakers last week. Alexis Tsipras is desperately trying to regain the support of Syriza MPs who have refused to support the conditions creditors have attached to the €86 billion ESM aid package.
Although negotiations will now likely begin within the next few days, another vote (on pensions and taxes for farmers) is expected during the first week of August.
Earlier today, MNI - citing unnamed sources - reported that Tsipras will look to hold elections as soon as the third bailout is in place. Greek government officials promptly denied the report.
As a reminder, here's what's next for Greek politics, courtesy of Deutsche Bank.
* * *
From Deutsche Bank
Potential political paths ahead
We see the situation as potentially leading to three different political outcomes over the next few weeks.
The first is near-term political instability that would put ESM negotiations on hold and return pressure on the Greek banking system ahead of the August 20th ECB bond redemption. This would be provoked by the PM tendering his government's resignation either by losing additional government MPs in coming parliamentary votes or by losing support in the party's Central Committee. Either would not necessarily cause a general election, with a government of national unity under very limited SYRIZA MP support possible until ESM talks are concluded (only 48 out of 149 MPs would be needed). Irrespectively, talks would be delayed, and the possibility of a more substantial shift in the SYRIZA position against the agreement could not be ruled out, whether before or after a new general election.
The second potential outcome is a Greek PM decision to more aggressively position himself against internal party dissent and in favour of program implementation. This would likely involve a request from dissenting MPs to resign their parliamentary seats or, in case of refusal, exclusion from the SYRIZA parliamentary group. Such a decision would aim to consolidate the PM’s influence, with the ultimate aim of moving the party towards a more moderate direction in a future general election. Current electoral law stipulates that a general election within 12 months of the last one takes place under a "list" system, providing the Greek PM with the political cover to steer SYRIZA's candidate list towards a more moderate direction.
Still, any such decisions need to be approved by the party's Central Committee. The latter is similarly responsible for excluding members from the party, even if the PM excludes MPs from the parliamentary group. Any such decision therefore requires the PM to take the risk of more formally splintering the party, with potential unpredictable results given his more uncertain influence over the party's Central Committee
The third - and what we believe the most likely outcome in coming weeks - is a continuation of the last few days' status quo: persistent attempts by the PM to work through internal party dissent as well as the ESM negotiations, but without actively precipitating political change. In this instance the Greek PM would continue to preside over a de facto minority government, even if this is not explicitly acknowledged. A confidence vote may be called but dissenting MPs would still vote in favour and/or opposition parties would abstain. Any eventual ESM agreement would be ratified by a broad parliamentary majority, but with very strong SYRIZA dissents. Early elections could be called after. The benefit to this outcome is that near-term political uncertainty would be avoided, with dissenting and non-dissenting SYRIZA MPs as well as the opposition likely wanting to avoid near-term political instability. The cost would be that government commitment to the agreement would remain weak, maintaining the risk of a breakdown in negotiations as ESM negotiations get under way.
Whatever the outcome above, events over the next few weeks are most likely to continue to be driven by the PM's personal decisions as well as internal developments within SYRIZA. This will in turn depend on the ongoing economic and political cost of program implementation, with large upfront fiscal tightening already being legislated but additional fiscal and structural reform commitments needed to conclude the 3rd ESM program negotiations. The PMs own approval ratings will also matter, with opinion polls released after the negotiations continuing to show higher popularity ratings than other political leaders as well as a strong SYRIZA lead over other opposition parties. It remains to be seen how long this persists given the economic costs of the agreement, but the longer support is maintained, the greater the PM's influence over internal party politics is likely to be.
The endgame
Irrespective of the near-term outcomes above, the inherent contradiction of program implementation by a government from within which the bulk of opposition originates will have to be resolved. It is unlikely that uncertainty around the stability of the Greek economy and banking system recedes until this is the case.
Resolution could be led by Greek PM and current party president Tsipras moving SYRIZA in a more moderate direction followed by an early general election later this year after ESM negotiations have concluded. This would increase the odds of a government with greater commitment to implementation, irrespective of the electoral outcome. It would however risk a major splintering of the party or Tsipras' own loss of authority in the process. An alternative is that the party retains its own internal contradictions, but that a government of national unity with broader-based participation is formed irrespectively. However, it remains unclear if this could materialize without an early general election, which the opposition may eventually request.
Either way, implementation risks are likely to remain strong until greater political change materializes, likely driven by the strong internal contradictions within the current ruling party, but ultimately settled by the Greek PMs own political initiatives.
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The Greek people now know who the traitors are.
Of course, the most difficult vote, on Pensions and Taxes on Farmers, was (Not coincidentally) omitted, so that is the last hope that Greece will come to its senses and default now not later after all its assets have been stripped and the Debt burden becomes even larger.
Declare BKcy..turn the tables on the euro mofo s.
I know what you are saying but there were traitors at every level.
People who did not pay their taxes.
Tax inspectors and politicians who took bribes.
People who sold their soul to a political party to get jobs for which they were not qualified.
People who continued to colelct pensions well after their parents had died.
People who received subsidies and grants to establsih businesses but who spent it on Porshes and night clubs.
People who took the bait of free credit cards,
People who sold their family's wealth to gamble on the stock market and live the high life.
People who took their ill gotten gains and parked them in Swiss banks.
Judges who let the previous finance minister off the hook despite altering a computer disc with names of tax evaders who he was related to one way or another.
Politicians who previously hated one another with a passion forming a coalition government to retain power (PASOK and New Democracy).
Public servants who did nothing but create a bureaucratic nightmare for businesses and people.
The little traitors do not matter, all you need is the right people in charge, and the little ones either fall in line or they'll be prosecuted. Eg: see Putin or the Chinese crackdown on corruption.
Only real problem is that humanity is created as a slave race and is not designed to self govern.
Publicus, there is great merit in what you say, but it takes two to tango.
I know what you are saying but there were traitors at every level.
1776 - Common Sense "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one. Government, like dress, is the badge of lost innocence; the palaces of kings are built upon the ruins of the bowers of paradise."
Your list is applicable to most governments, some far worse than others. Central planning is a goal of globalists who, presently, have control of the monetary system.
Ignorance of the people when it comes to matters of finance and the law is astouding. People run around claiiming they are educated in the halls of "higher education" and continue to show complete ignorance. It should be obvious as to who is creating the theory these poor souls are using as a foundation for understanding how the world works.
The Greek people with their insatiable wants jumped onto the Euro train and those controlling the fiat debt system happily drove the train to slavery. Yes, it does take two to tango.
This will be the best security for maintaining our liberties. A nation of well-informed men, who have been taught to know and prize the rights which God has given them, cannot be enslaved. Benjamin Franklin
The globalist banksters, such as Goldman, have insatiable wants and the slaves to their system have insatiable wants. In this game the one who controls the medium of exchange is the winner.
Ah yes, another excellent decision by parliament, they really care about their peasants. Now let them celebrate by munching on gyros while watching John Stamos in Full House.
Thread needs a soundtrack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPTvkIwEsB0
At the very least the proper soundtrack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_a0zOLMAfw
+1
The more the better
The only choice the people of Greece have is a choice of which colour condom is going to be used on them. Unfortunately it's always the same dick they are going to be copping.
Regardless of which plan, which government or which law they adopt, the sad reality is that they are in for years (if not generations) of a very painful paradigm shift.
One thing is for sure. They will not be returning at any point in time to the "good old days".
Napalm Saganaki inbound.....
"I love the smell of napalm on a Greek summer morning". Forget who said that, probably Schaeuble?
Varoufakis voted YES this time, to show his support for the Syriza government.
What does it matter? Elections for what?
Tsipras surely cannot be motivated to be the errand boy of the Troika. If he decides like the EU scum he's been negotiating unsuccessfully with for months and who have shown their contempt for his country, how is it possible, unless it's about power at any cost for him to mock govern?
It's just not credible and he should save what's left of his dignity and toss the keys to Merkel. If not he'll be remembered as the joker who put the final nail in Greece's coffin.
Does this mean Greece isn't going to default?
It will be allowed to default after it has been stripped of any valuable assets and a bank haircut has been carried out.
Yes, they will still default. I'm picking out my bargain basement Greek island now before the rush.
whose de-fault is it anyway?
Iceland Iceland Iceland Iceland
It's clear the Greeks are willing to accept the EU bankers tyranny to kick the can down the road. Human nature never changes.
"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will. Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue until they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress." -- Frederick Douglass, August 4, 1857 (borrowed from an earlier post)
I told you so!
They talk, the argue, they point their fingers, they cry, they moan and groan, they curse....but like last time they voted over 70% to accept the reforms.
One more vote to go .... for pension reforms. And they will pass that too.
MESSAGE TO GREECE GOVERNMENT: STOP THE CHARADE! EVERYBODY KNOWS YOU'RE GOING TO PASS THE REFORMS....SO GET ON WITH GETTING YOUR COUNTRY BACK IN ORDER...STOP COMPLAINING AND START WORKING! STOP SHOW BOATING....NOBODY CARES....START GOVERNING!
How do you govern a~$400 billion debt, sovereignty lost austerity anal ripping?
Faggots. Lets just stop reporting on the Greeks. We can assume their MPs are a bunch of entitled pussies until they do something to suggest otherwise.
"the €86 billion ESM aid package."
Of this "aid" not a single euro will go to the Greek people.
It is all for the creditors. Humanitarian crisis in Creece soon to come.
u r wrong.
calculations show, that single digit percentage will go to Greeks.
The public was told earlier by Brussels, that elections do not matter, if there is a bail-out.
Why the hell do they even vote in that parlament?
Both WTF and LOL and jesus christ @ at becoming a nation so utterley dependant on another entity for your existence, that your forced to eat shit sandwiches just to survive.
What a humiliating and insufferable situation......but u know what, the more you read about the Greeks and their culture and their me-first, welfare, cheating ways, you realise they were like moths to a fcking EU fiat-trap mofo debt flame.
They never stood a chance.
Living in Greece has just become a multi-decade anal ripping.
Judas!