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Retail Federation Slashes Sales Outlook By 15%, Blames "Deflationary Enviornment"
Despite the absence of bad weather, good weather, port strikes, and snow, The National Retail Federation today slashed its retail sales forecast for 2015 from 4.1% growth to just 3.5%. Sales grew at a 2.9% pace in the first half of 2015 and hope remains that the next 5 months show growth of 3.7% (with same store sales growth revised lower). The excuse reason for this markdown..."spending has been hampered by lackluster growth in our economy. Much of that blame can be shifted to Washington where too much time has been spent crafting rules and regulations that almost guarantee negative consequences for consumers and American businesses alike."
The National Retail Federation today lowered its retail sales forecast for 2015 because of unexpected slow growth recorded during the first half of the year, similar to the industry’s experience in 2014. However, NRF expects sales will steadily increase through the remainder of the year. NRF forecasted in February that retail sales would grow 4.1 percent in 2015 over 2014, but today’s revision lowers the forecast to 3.5 percent.
“A confluence of events, including treacherous weather throughout the United States through most of the winter, issues at the West Coast ports, a stronger U.S. dollar, weak foreign growth and declines in energy sector investments all significantly and negatively impacted retail sales so far this year, and thus have changed how future sales will shape up for the rest of 2015,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Additionally, household spending patterns appear to have shifted purchases toward services and away from goods, though this may be transitory. Additionally, a deflationary retail environment has been especially challenging for retailers’ bottom lines.”
But it is NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay that seems to sum things up best...
“For years consumer spending has been hampered by lackluster growth in our economy. Much of that blame can be shifted to Washington where too much time has been spent crafting rules and regulations that almost guarantee negative consequences for consumers and American businesses alike. Until the government and our elected leaders get serious about enacting policies that lift consumer confidence, create economic growth and spur investment, we will continue this trend of solid, but not exceptional, performance in the economy.”
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Which roughly translated means - "we need more QE now!!!"
But low gas prices...
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can't Obamacrap be counted as retail spending?
excuses, excuses. Like my ma used to say to me when I used some lame excuse for why I was late to dinner or took to long too walk to the store for a loaf of bread. "yea well if the dog wouldn't have stopped to take a shit he woulda caught a rabbit"
where there's a will, there's a way
Or a death.
They spent all their ammo on that V "recovery". The next drop they will have nothing to counter with except pure money printing. I'd like to see a longer term chart just to know whether the multi-year flat trend from 2012 to present is unusual.
Gee, never saw that one coming......
Sure, Yellen will raise rates in September. Perhaps, September 2020
No rate normalization during my lifetime Bernanke
who knows how long the bernank will live?!
If looks or thoughts could kill, he'd already be in hell.
The GDP is forecast to grow at only 2.2%. Why would you expect 4.1% growth out of retail?
Because stocks are at ATH, all are rich, wealth creation 101, what can go wrong?
because we've printed 8 trillion dollars. didn't you get your multi million dollar care package? We've printed enough money for every american to be a multi millionaire. Thank god the grandkids are paying for all this.
My check must still be in the mail.
START YOURRRRRRRRR PRESSESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.
(Please)
Real deflation should improve domestic retail sales.
what???? no seasonal adjustment?
I do the shopping, so I know prices. The inflation numbers are inaccurate, especially for necessities. This week, bleach is $2.94 a gallon. Tomato's are $1.98 lb., and a half-gallon of 1% is $2.32 (up from $2.18 on 3/29/15). I'm not sure how the NRF calculates retail sales growth, but if the numbers are not inflation adjusted, real spending is declining. I choose not to spend as much because pricing for many products is absurd. I use what I have and make due. There is zero marginal propensity to consume in my world since 2007. Spend less, live frugally, go to the library and enjoy the blessings of life.
ditto.
ditto.
I do the shopping, so I know prices. The inflation numbers are inaccurate, especially for necessities. This week, bleach is $2.94 a gallon. Tomato's are $1.98 lb., and a half-gallon of 1% is $2.32 (up from $2.18 on 3/29/15). I'm not sure how the NRF calculates retail sales growth, but if the numbers are not inflation adjusted, real spending is declining. I choose not to spend as much because pricing for many products is absurd. I use what I have and make due. There is zero marginal propensity to consume in my world since 2007. Spend less, live frugally, go to the library and enjoy the blessings of life.
Bleach was .99 forever and then boom.
Retail growth?? What a load of crap. The real numbers are, and have been, negative for the past 5 years. I know my own retail spending is not just lower, it's near non existent. We have slashed our spending to as close to nothing as we can get it. The general consensus (amongst friends and neighbors) around here is austerity in retail spending is the way of the future.
Well stated.
I just bought a new shirt. Doing MY part!
I recently bought some new running shoes at Academy. I paid 19.95. It was the only 19.95 pair they had. i also splurged and bought a pair for 29.95. They had a choice of three pairs at that price point. The rest of my choices? $60-$150 per pair. They had hundreds of choices close to $100 per pair. They are fuckin nuts if they think I am going to pay anything like that kind of money for a pair of tennis shoes.
Sneakers for all that money? Fools and their money....
Maybe Ford should start making sneakers. Out of aluminum.
I shop at thrift stores for most clothing. I take comfort in immortalizing some dead guy's wardrobe while feeding the stingy beast in me.
A few more rounds of QE will put them out of their misery - permanently.
There shall only be QE for the stock market, never the real economy. MOAR QE for Lloyd at Goldman for the next billion... Screw the little people!!! They can eat shit and die. Let them eat the satan cake.
I find the title (Retail Federation Slashes Sales Outlook by 15%) very misleading. This is what you would state if current sales over a certain period were $1 trillion and your sales outlook for the next period was $850 billion. So perhaps something like "sales growth outlook"...
No retail grote is all part of Barry's epic jobless rekovery.
Aye think its funnee when the editorially challenged Tylers make fun of others spellinb.
Is snow deflationary?