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This Is The 'Thinnest' New High In Stock Market History

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Dana Lyons,

When we posted yesterday’s piece on the stock market’s weak internals (If Beauty’s On The Inside, This Market Wins The Ugly Contest), we weren’t sure if things could get any worse – and by how much – with the major averages still able to hold near 52-week highs. Well, the answers were “yes” and “a lot”. In yesterday’s piece, we noted that Friday produced one of the ugliest “Up” days in memory, based on the internals. Again, the internals, as represented by indicators like advance-decline breadth, advance-decline volume and new highs-new lows, are a gauge of the health of the broad stock market. This health can differ, sometimes significantly, from the market’s appearance from merely watching the major averages (e.g., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, etc.) We like to see strong internals as an indication of a healthy market. When a rally “thins”, i.e., the internals weaken, it can be a sign of vulnerability for the broad market, even with the major averages at their highs.

Well, we can say with confidence that yesterday, July 20, 2015, was the thinnest new high on record in the U.S. stock market (while the Nasdaq Composite closed at a new high, we are taking some license with here with the S&P 500 as it closed up to within 0.12% of it 52-week high).

Here is our evidence (all data from Reuters):

1.) Yesterday saw the fewest % of NYSE Advancing Issues ever near an S&P 500 52-Week High

There were just 967 Advancing Issues on the NYSE yesterday versus 2086 Declining Issues. At 31.7% of issues, that is by far the lowest % of any day since 1965 that the S&P 500 closed up to within 0.5% of a 52-week high. As an FYI, there have been 1,564 such days since 1965.

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2.) The past 2 days saw the lowest % of NYSE Advancing Volume ever near an S&P 500 52-Week High

Despite the higher closes in the S&P 500, the past 2 days had just 28% and 29% Advancing Volume on the NYSE. Those are, again, by far the 2 weakest readings of all the 1,564 near highs since 1965.

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3.) Yesterday had the 2nd worst showing of NYSE Highs vs. New Lows ever near an S&P 500 52-Week High

There were 307 New Lows on the NYSE versus just 107 New Highs. The differential of -200, as well as the % of New Highs vs. New Lows (35%) mark nearly the worst readings on record near an S&P 500 new high. Only 3 days between December 21-28, 1999 saw worse readings among the 1,484 near highs since 1970.

image

 

4.) Yesterday saw the fewest % of Nasdaq Advancing Issues ever at a Nasdaq Composite 52-Week High

There were just 804 Advancing Issues on the Nasdaq yesterday versus 1743 Declining Issues. At 31.6% of issues, that is tied for the lowest % of Advancing Issues of any Nasdaq Composite 52-week high since 1988. Only March 14, 2012 had as low a figure among the 749 Nasdaq 52-week highs.

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5.) Yesterday saw the lowest % of Nasdaq Advancing Volume ever for a Nasdaq 52-Week High

Despite the new high in the Nasdaq Composite, yesterday saw just 42% of volume on the Nasdaq go to Advancing Issues. That is the weakest reading of all the 749 Nasdaq new highs since 1988.

image

 

6.) Yesterday was just the 2nd time ever with more Nasdaq New Lows than New Highs at a Nasdaq 52-Week High

With 154 New Lows on the Nasdaq versus 107 New Highs, the differential was not quite as egregious as that on the NYSE. However, it was just the 2nd time of all 756 Nasdaq 52-week highs since 1986 that saw more New Lows than New Highs on the exchange. Only 3 days between April 5-8, 1999 also had more New Lows than Highs.

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Our view of the thinning out of market breadth has been well documented. It holds potentially very negative ramifications for the broad stock market. This isn’t just a 1 or 2-day wonder either. It is a trend that has been building for about 12 months now. This development doesn’t have to be an immediate death-knell for the bull market. However, eventually it will necessarily take its toll. Considering the thin nature of recent highs, that day of reckoning would appear to be fast approaching. If this rally gets any thinner, our Candlestick charts will stop casting shadows.

 

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Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:05 | 6342302 cassotto
cassotto's picture

BTFATH porn

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:19 | 6342341 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Rarified hights. It's because they've sucked all the oxygen out of the investing air! That is where the "Thinnest" comes from...

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:17 | 6342348 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

What's that cracking sound??

Crazed, insanely desperate crushing stampede for the exit door in 3....2....1...

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:17 | 6342351 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Your imagination--this will never end!

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:19 | 6342356 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It already has!

Ta ta...

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:29 | 6342405 headhunt
headhunt's picture

The Fed is out of room, NIRP is the only move left.

Buy those damn Twinkies - they last forever

 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:35 | 6342432 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

No...   It's Janet banging .25% on the keyboard, September 1st...

 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 18:48 | 6343169 sonoftx
sonoftx's picture

I miss seeing your avatar Mr Headbanger.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:20 | 6342361 negative rates
negative rates's picture

BRASS MONKEY, that funky junkie.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:53 | 6342485 froze25
froze25's picture

+10 for the Beastie Boy's ref.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:05 | 6342304 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

They are not markets, markets went away a few years back.  This is just playing with computers and rigging prices!

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:05 | 6342308 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Market.....................Pfffffffft!

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:11 | 6342328 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

""markets""

FTFY

They require double quotation marks now.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:12 | 6342331 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Thinnest high in USD history too.

 

Cleanest dirty shirt ha !! No.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:09 | 6342316 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

There's them graphs again...   Seems to be an interesting correlating point, right around 1984 or so.   Everything sorta bumbles along 'normally' before that point, and then --- RAMP UP.   Funny, you could overlay a housing price data graph and I'll bet it would track the above graphs fairly neatly.   What all got started back in the mid 80's anyway...?   It sure has bloody hell wasn't 'lay away' programs...

 

 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:22 | 6342346 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Jimmy Carter started the 'Community Reinvestment Act' a commie dream of taking from the rich and give to the poor.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:35 | 6342660 venturen
venturen's picture

you got that wrong...it is take from the middle class and give to the rich. All these properties and contracts are pre owned by cronies and taxpayer pay top dollar to some democrat....then the poor are herded into the concentration ghetto to do drugs and kill each other...and vote democrat for eternity! 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:18 | 6342355 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

It was the joining of the so-called Pinstripe Democrats with the old money Republicans to radically increase wealth inequality.  Sometimes known as 'Gucci Gulch'.  Robert Rubin is perhaps the best example of Clinton-era DLC pinstripery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Reform_Act_of_1986

 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:21 | 6342364 atomp
atomp's picture

401K.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:28 | 6342392 g speed
g speed's picture

the "peace bonus" --end of cold war--??? just a guess

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:29 | 6342400 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ronald Reagan's 1987 working group on financial markets created the plunge protection team. All major losses where thrown on the tax payer after that point.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:36 | 6342438 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

I seem to recall that getting credit card started to become a lot easier back then too, no...?

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:09 | 6342318 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

And they all lived happily ever after. The bullshit is about to get really deep as they try to talk it all away........

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:10 | 6342323 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Central banks adding to their balance sheets while the world starves.

 

Still waiting for an "average alexandros" in greece to blow a politicians fucking head off.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:10 | 6342326 gmak
gmak's picture

Of course. Of course. Of course. Signs have been seen for years. But, timng is everything. Eary = Wrong.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:11 | 6342327 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Everybody knows its a joke and are getting scared shitless on the street. Look for more 200 million dollar paintings. Look for more and more Yellen bucks to look for anything that can get loaded on a Gulfstream in a moments notice. It could be a real short warning whistle for the billionaires this time around. Already have a job offer servicing an elite bugout area in Australia. Good money prolly should take it......gl all

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:14 | 6342343 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

That move from mid-2012 on looks totally fake.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:29 | 6342401 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

That's around the time when I cashed in me chips as regards investing in shares/equities.

The fact that bourses continued to climb since then proved me wrong then. I might be proven correct now!

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:17 | 6342352 headhunt
headhunt's picture

'Thinnest high'; funny how that correlates to a crack addict

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:19 | 6342360 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

more printing
a modest, Potemkin hike
then a nice world war.

then the .001% will own the Earth in Fee Simple.

"When they touch down, we'll blow the roof, they'll spend a month sifting through rubble, and by the time they figure out what went wrong, we'll be sitting on a beach, earning twenty percent. "

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:29 | 6342399 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

"Clay ---- Bill Clay..."

 

 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:25 | 6342374 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

This trend started much further back than 12 months.  In fact, it started back in May 2013.  That was when many of my volume/price based models started blowing up after 15 straight years of success.  

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:18 | 6342594 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The Flash crash was the big turning point, "The Market" became 100% a tool of the Fed, TBTF, IMF, PTB...  Price and volume lost correlation because supply and demand went totally out the window. High volume selling is bullish now, so is low volume all time highs, bad breadth, and technical divergence.... Its all Bull all the time.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:26 | 6342380 Jtrillian
Jtrillian's picture

Makes 2008 look like the dress rehersal for the main event.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:32 | 6342419 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

Great blog entry btw, Tyler.

 

This analysis is what makes ZH the go to resource that it is.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:36 | 6342439 yellencrash
yellencrash's picture

One more new high, then the worst crash in the history of the stock market, probably in October. That's my idiot hunch.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 15:56 | 6342500 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Anything containing "worst crash" can be described that way.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:05 | 6342536 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

Just BTFATH and go back to sleep...

 

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:25 | 6342617 fightapathy
fightapathy's picture

RBS has just GOTTA come through for me with that $900 mln loan. The Twinkies deal is gone but there's SO MUCH TO BUY BUY BUYYYY!!!!

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:36 | 6342663 venturen
venturen's picture

no they legalized drugs....just get high and stupid!

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:31 | 6342636 Playtime's Over
Playtime's Over's picture

Forgive, but this is a constant refrain for what er........7 years or so.  I want the shit show to meet reality too but boy are these banksters crafty........

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 16:51 | 6342719 teutonicate
teutonicate's picture

You know, when I see guys say something like BTFATH, even after this thorough analysis, I really do believe that there is always a fool when you need one.

Good investors know that they will make losing trades, that comes with the territory.

But good investors also know when the time has come to not bet against overwhelming odds based on logic and history.

Even if we leave another 5% on the table, I think the time is now.  Either get out, or get short.

Wed, 07/22/2015 - 20:00 | 6343422 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

I figure as soon as the major companies, are done reporting, fasten your seat belt!

 

wonder if you'll still feel the urge to "BTFD"

Thu, 07/23/2015 - 01:45 | 6344315 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

Just think how high the new highs will be when those falling stocks start rising again!

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