This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To Lowest Level In 42 Years
Time for a rate hike?
Initial jobless claims dropped 26,000 to 255k - its lowest since Nov 1973
While July 4th adjustments may indeed be a factor, it appears things have hardly ever been better - according to this data anyway.
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 23375 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Time for hammer time!
Out of you ten people, who does not have a job? Oh yeah, you, you, and you cannot vote.
I know a bunch of people out of jobs, but I hang with an odd group
As I've said... The Feral Reserve will raise rates soon no matter what!
But this low number might make sense cause many Boomers are retiring in droves now
que steve liesman and cnbc..mission accomplished.
In the land of illusion anything can be created out of thin air. The masses will be forced to adjust.
Hollow-Graphic dood
There's never been a better time then now to be a BS'er. As the economy gets worse, the BS gets thicker:
Weatherford ups job cuts amid second quarter losshttp://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/07/weatherford-ups-...
who you callin "group"?
And don't call you "hey" either!
Exactly. They count you once. You could have been out of work for 4 years, and they counted you ONCE four years ago, and never again!
I hire myself every morning and fire myself again at night. You would think they would count me as both unemployed and as a new hire 365 times a year. But they don't. More's the pity.
Are we still voting?
Does it match the lowest labor participation rate in 42 years?
Soon everyone will have two jobs.
...and dependent on SNAP.
Crack and Pop.
Funny. But it's also true. People are not finding work and then are turning to drugs and parents.
Jobless, underemployed, unemployed, not looking for work, couldn't give a shit about work, not wanting anymore hours or pay so I can collect my bennies, over taxed, way the fuck over taxed and working too hard when I gotts to wake up to gets my EBT refilled,
When all the business are closed and bankrupted, there will be 0 % initial jobless claim! Bullish! Can't wait till the unemployment rate at 0%. when no one has job and no one is unemployed. :)
Qualtiy of jobs? Full time jobs? Wages?
When incomes, hours and the total percentage of people working rise, then I will believe it.
Wait....so NY had -20k claims in one area but +15k new claims? I'm confused.....
Good, I guess that means that the 48 million (and climbing) people on SNAP can start providing for themselves. Everything is awesome!
Yes, we need more to snap.
48 MILLION on a Supplementary Nutritional Assistance Program is a Very loooooong Soup line
Once everyone has been fired initial jobless claims will go to zero.
I suspect this is what happens when the labor force participation rate is the lowest it's been since my wife was born.
good. so she has no reason to NOT raise rates a quarter point of 0 for 7 years, right?
The fed couldn't raise a hot air ballon.
It's a recession when your neighbor doesn't have a job. It's a depression when you don't have a job. So is this why Gold got hammered as usual at 8 AM sharp (although I read a rise in rates was going to increase Gold price)
They have to bring the price down first. It may go down even as rates start to increase. It is about shaking people out just like eventually when they bring down stocks.
Meaningless statistic in the age of part time jobs that don't qualify and after 8 years of full time job gutting. It is winter. The apples have fallen off the tree. Stop looking for them. Start looking in the bushes for a way to count berries.
All the illegals I know have full time jobs so everything is good I guess. As for Amerikan citizens, not so much.
Yeah but try not to mind the black bears in those bushes too.
Let's cancel all unemployment benefits and see what the real unemployment rate is.
But... but... the CHILDREN, Mick! The CHILDREN!
We already have thousands of children showing up in hospital emergency rooms on the verge death from malnutrition in this country every day, and you want to make this even worse?
Great news! Rates should be going up... ...any second now...
And next week the figures will be 'adjusted' to show an "unexpected" and "alarming" up-tick. BLS - Bureau of Lying Statistics
well except for 93 milion people without job, everything is peachy....
I am looking for a mehican to take my shitty YOBS.
UE down housing prices up! go borrow and spend sheep!
False news and finacial manipulation is all they have left!
What that graph shows is wave after wave of people losing jobs.
The beach is littered with the jobless and 29 hour/week crowd.
Apparently not a single person with a birth-death model job was fired last week. Victory!
Just enjoy some good news people. It's certainly better than a 400k number.
The crying for good data is a little sad.
this number should be a ratio of "working" people to unemployment claims. a declining work force in real numbers against a growing population says this good news ain't that good. its significance is diluted by other "stats".
They have that number. It's the insured unemployed rate, which is 1.6 percent (continuing claims) - an all-time low.
Might that be because so much "employment" has been transformed--for those still "participating" in the labor market--into intermittent part-time gigs, with a much lower proportion of the "working" population (i.e., predominantly service-industry part-timers) even qualifying for unemployment benefits any more? And, for those who do qualify, number of weeks of benefits have been slashed by revised laws as well as lower "qualiying base incomes" upon which length of benefits are calculated.
That turd in the sandwich is not steak.
Continuing claims has become a virtually useless measure.
Yes, lots of "good news" has in fact been coming out for several quarters already. Now raise the Federal Funds Rate motherfucker!!!
Can't have it both ways for much longer asshat.
It's not the 'data', ajkreider... 'Data' are like firearms; neither good nor bad all by themselves. They don't jump up into action on their own... They have to be picked up and 'manipulated', so to speak, in order for them to function in the manner desired by the handler...
Like a fork.
If painted into a corner, the FED/Congress will remove the employment mandate from the FEDs charter. They cannot raise rates.
That's because the fed/congress, is always wrong, but never in doubt.
Then they will only accelerate their own demise. "Full faith and credit"
Sounds great to me!!!
The quite before the storm?
It just shows how stagnet our economy is...we are in dead water....there is no wind for the sails....
My oars are just getting broken in. Warp speed ready when you are Captain!
Are suicides up by the same amount that joblesss claims are down?
looks like jobless claims started going down when Obama came into office. Probably the first number he started fudging.
Look at what it did right after the lows....... CHECKMATE!
Seems like the BLS is hiring lots of folks for each count, then laying them off immediately after. Then they hire them again for the next count. What a great scheme.
This is what happens when you "over-manipulate" or "over-fudge" BLS. Record breaking employment. It is only safe to assume if the BLS fucks up this bad these should be in record "negative number territory" with - 4.85% unemployment claims soon.
Yep, and then we will hear about how "impossible" it is to find employees. What they will never mention is that the jobs all pay $7.25 for 28 hours per week.
Yep. Non-seasonally adjusted initial claims are at 262,981. That might still be a low but it isn't what was reported.
They've been misreporting this figure for years and years now, it's not anything new. Now, there are times where the adjusted numbers they report are actually worse than the real numbers but they're still adjusted, evidently to reflect some type of continuity. Call it the Golidlocks effect: They like to report the numbers as moving steadily in one direction or the other to reflect continuity/stability. Not too high, not too low, just right.
That's how they earned the moniker the Bureau of Lies and Statistics.
Unemployment claims as an economic barometer only mattered when we had a real economy. In 2009 when the markets started rallying in the summer(Beginning in, I believe, March), jobs were still flying out the window as UE claims continued at levels not seen since the late 70s/early 80s. Not long after, the recession was declared to be "over", hailing "Recovery Summer".
In reality, claims didn't recede to "historical" levels of normality for something like two years.
As mentioned previously, the only number that matters is labor force participation rate which is at almost 40 year lows.
Another misleading statistic: The jobs number itself. Here is are the BLS definitions for emploed persons:
"Employed persons (Current Population Survey)
So, the jobs numbers could include someone who worked one hour in one week at a temporary job.
So, the jobs numbers could reflect someone who worked for a short while. When terminated, if they didn't meet the qualifications for UE, they couldn't file.
Nothing is at it seems in today's smoke and mirrors economy. The economy itself, employment, the markets, nothing. All meaningless numbers that are manipulated or artificially boosted to keep the sheeple from going into a tizzy.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ICNSA
http://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm#E
Happy Daze is here again. Recovery is just a pair of rose colored glasses away.
I don't have any trouble with the data presented, it's the information and reporting that are so tortured. Sure, fewer people filed, but how's that pool looking over time? Is 234K for a pool of 50 million workers the same as 234K for a pool of 100 million workers? Is the story the 234K or the shrinking of the pool?
I sorta want to get in a pool now.
The data is not being manipulated. It's just irrelevant most jobs created now don't offer jobless benefits when you get laid off.
Hence the low numbers.
... if 93 million over-18 Amerkans are out of the labour force (with 46 million on foodstamps) ... >>> http://investmentwatchblog.com/with-46-million-on-foodstamps-and-93-million-out-of-the-workforce-a-defense-budget-this-big-is-unjustifiable/ ... and approx. 75 million are children or under 18 >>> http://www.aecf.org/resources/the-changing-child-population-of-the-united-states/ , and with a total US population of approx. 319 million which means that approx. 244 million (319 - 75) could potentially be on the work force ... would it make sense that out of 244 million, only 151 million are on the labour force (employed or underemployed) ... which would give USSA an "unemployed" percentage of 38.1%? ... (93/244) ...
Easy to reach new lows when people have given up and aren't even trying to enter the workforce.
All you whiners would be more credible if you actually looked at the stats. Full time workers are near an all time high, which is why the insured unemployed rate is near all time lows. Forty years ago the fill time workforce was 80 million. Now it's over 120.
It's fine if you want to make every figure about the participation rate, part time or whatever, all of which matter for the full picture. But they've got nothing to do with these numbers.
"Full time workers are near an all time high"
Sure, see my post below on that.
Initial claims are the lowest for the same reason the Titanic isn't sinking deeper. By the current accounting method, if 100% of the population was unemployed but not looking for work, the "unemployment rate" would be zero. As with nearly everything else related to government economic figures spewed forth it's "move along, nothing of any real value to see here."
What's the Real Unemployment Rate in the U.S.?
June 16, 2015
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune15/real-unemployment6-15.html
Sample:
"It's nonsense to count everyone earning a few hundred or few thousand dollars annually as being employed in the same category as full-time workers or those earning $15,000 or more annually."
Very nice article.
Doesn't quite show we aren't at an all time, as it calls into question raw numbers. Doing this analysis for the past 30 years would be interesting. Has the counting methodology changed?