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World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis
As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the "US recession imminent" canary in the coalmine is drawing her last breath...
As Wolf Street's Wolf Richter adds, this isn’t stagnation or sluggish growth. This is the steepest and longest decline in world trade since the Financial Crisis. Unless a miracle happened in June, and miracles are becoming exceedingly scarce in this sector, world trade will have experienced its first back-to-back quarterly contraction since 2009.
Both of the measures above track import and export volumes. As volumes have been skidding, new shipping capacity has been bursting on the scene in what has become a brutal fight for market share [read… Container Carriers Wage Price War to Form Global Shipping Oligopoly].
Hence pricing per unit, in US dollars, has plunged 14% since May 2014, and nearly 20% since the peak in March 2011. For the months of March, April, and May, the unit price index has hit levels not seen since mid-2009.
World trade isn’t down for just one month, or just one region. It wasn’t bad weather or an election somewhere or whatever. The swoon has now lasted five months. In addition, the CPB decorated its report with sharp downward revisions of the prior months. And it isn’t limited to just one region. The report explains:
The decline was widespread, import and export volumes decreasing in most regions and countries, both advanced and emerging. Import and export growth turned heavily negative in Japan. Among emerging economies, Central and Eastern Europe was one of the worst performers.
Given these trends, the crummy performance of our heavily internationalized revenue-challenged corporate heroes is starting to make sense: it’s tough out there.
But not just in the rest of the world. At first we thought it might have been a blip, a short-term thing. Read… Americans’ Economic Confidence Gets Whacked
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shocker....does Obama know about this?
Can someone explain why the BDI is way back up off its lows?
1) data being rigged
2) China has to something with all the Treasuries being dumped
WHo cares......no one believes any of the "stats".......garbage in garbage out
"Who cares......no one believes any of the "stats"... --kliguy38
Except many of us in the alt media world love to quote the Baltic Dry Index when it's getting crushed. To see it soaring over the past six weeks is very peculiar, and seems to contradict what's going on with commodities.
Intel folk look for the anomalies,
well heck, I am contrary to just about everything that normal folks think...
put me on the list :-)
It's a game of whack-a-mole... Whenever the alt media begins to reference historic indicators that drive investor sentiment, TPTB begin to manipulate the statistics... How many ways are they doing this? Well, how about employment numbers, inflation, VIX, national debt, and on and on and on...
“Whack a mole”…I have not done that for many years.
.. but I have a pretty good memory and sense of proportion.
It seems to me like the little rats were popping up from 76 mm holes.
I know a firing solution for that.
I quit paying attention to the BDI long ago. The thing always looks like a epilepsy sufferer having a seizure and a heart attack at the same time. The thing doesn't so much "random walk" but perform random gymnastics.
I think that the BDI's problem probably lies in the way its data is collected. I don't see how anyone could use it, or take it seriously.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
I think you nailed it, there. I've watched it for a couple years since ZH called my attention to it and I've yet to make any rational sense out of it's numbers. I don't think it's a seizure and heart attack, I attribute the spikes to orgasms.
Sitting idle for months, any warm breath of movement would, at the least, pop a chubby (too old for an offical hardon), and any money sprinkled in would be viagra and a full release from several months (minus dust).
It's Iran .. Preparing to share their oil .. They have a lot to share .. Also they want our (the West) cars .. Not GM though .. Ford, Toyota, Benz, etc ..
I tend to go a step further. Look at the price of bunker fuel over the last month, becuase as we all know, thse cargo container ships don't run on unicorn farts.
Over the last two months, bunker fuel prices have been dropping like a rock. Track that against your Baltic Dry Index.
http://www.bunkerworld.com/community/blog/137721/Nick-Jameson/Walking-a-...
As noted in the article:
"With lower fuel costs containerships, oil tankers and bulk carriers are speeding up to cut total voyaging costs - sacrificing more fuel consumption for shorter journey times and faster turnarounds.”
This might explain the recent pop in the Baltic Dry Index.
I probably need to chart the two against each other.
If you read how the BDI is calculated, you will see that it should drop with decreasing price of bunker fuel, not rise as some people here are suggesting.
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/bdi.html
The BDI index will also reflect the structural changes taking place in the shipping market.
Sure Mike. Glad to help.
Putin is laying in a supply of beer, sacks, cheerleader costumes, and condoms for football season.
Aren't we all?
Bullshit.
Replace the word "imminent" with "ongoing and deepening" and then you have a factual headline.
"Imminent" in the sense that things are getting so bad that even the manipulated government economic data can no longer hide the fact that things are headed south.
imminent = chicken little click bait
I think you guys will appreciate this link- Who's blowtorching American jobs? 8 mins, altho it makes it's point in 6.
https://youtu.be/SfTfsWhZi5E
It's imminent!
There's a Mad Rush to Buy Earthquake Survival Kits in Seattlehttp://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/theres-a-mad-rush-to-buy-earthquake-sur...
Move way uphill
but not near Mt. Ranier
Any year now!
Don't suppose this is yours, if not might be helpful. http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellingenheld/2015/07/23/the-baltic-dry-...
FI, wake up. Read the JoC. 30% of all shipping capacity is at anchor or being shredded by poor people in India or Indonesia.
When capacity is reduced, price goes up.
Duh.
price cures price
but there is this pesky time-lag in the interim
BTW, loved your story of the collapse. Keep clicking back on your site for any updates. Starting to think about writing my own just for shits and giggles. Would you mind if your's is referenced or linked if I ever spend more than a couple hours from Zero Hedge? I have an itch to start writing again for some fucking reason. I reallo don't want to, but am starting to feel that I have to. (This shit is driving me nucking futs! Having an FBI agent on your porch REALLY has a tendancy to shut your mouth, and I was pretty mouthy on facebook and newsvine before finding Zero Hedge. But my wife loaned me my balls and I'm starting to want to use them again.)
No, not mine, but thanks for the link. It is a good article. Very interesting that Chinese corn imports are up so much from prior years. Pretty smart move on their part if accurate, plus it ties in well with Jim Rogers oft-stated commodities thesis that as countries grow wealthier their increased meat intake drives up demand for grain as livestock feed.
Not sure if the corn imports from Ukraine by China will have a long term effect on the BDIY. Seems imports from Bulgaria are also up by 23X. Good FT article on this Silk Road pivot by China:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/989c82ba-20cc-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html#axzz...
about the BDI ... you need to look at the long-term chart. BDI is at generational lows. The relative up's and down's are minor. Probably more related to ships being pulled OUT of the line-up for duty. The BDI is toast.
Ships being mothballed?
Everything from Wall Street is "since the financial crisis".
Wish some truth would be told at some point, that the "recovery" since 2008 has been a smoke & mirrors recovery with cooked books, fake employment stats, FASB accounting changes marking asset values to fantasy, and back door bailouts of the financial institutions because they are 100% insolvent.
We have not had a recovery since 2008. In fact, one could argue that the housing bubble that started in 2002 up to 2008 was also a band aid attempt at creating a fictitious recovery by stoking asset values, hyperinflating housing, and further debasing savings at the expense of the productive population. The FED is sucking the life out of anyone not chasing bubbles, unicorns, and rain bows.
The financial system is a crooked lie and WE ARE IN A PROLONGED DEPRESSION.
Let's call a spade a spade.
Under the circumstances, I'd prefer to call the spade a fucking shovel.
Your can't say "spade" anymore. You have to say, "the s-word."
S-word... Satchmo?
"yes Sister, I do understand that men often call a spade a spade, but ..."
So, I guess we have a worthless shovel in the blackhouse.
We have not had a recovery since 2008.
I would argue that we have not had a recover since 1960 during the early Camelot years. Reagan? Loved him, but he just spiked the shit out of the US debt.
Hasn't been the same since Nixon took us all off the gold standard in '71.
Agree that real wages have been declining since '71 .. The Depression began for me in the summer of '02 .. No real recovery since .. There were attempts or "gasps" in '04 and '11 .. The present proves now that we have been in trouble since '00 .. Thanks to Greenspan .. Only blame Reagan because he was forced to choose Greenspan, with pretty much a gun to his head in the hands of GHWB ..
I don't know how old you are jc, but I was in grade school in 71. The times after were bleak, dark and not fun. I remember talk about the long lines at the gas pumps (didn't drive so it didn't effect me much), but EVERYONE was struggling. Even back then I was aware that we were lucky our dad was a school teacher. After graduation the times in the late 70's under Carter were pretty tough. I was on my own, experienced it, got minimum wage jobs to afford rent, slowly worked up to $5hr as an apprentice in 79. When Reagan took the helm things started to kick ass. I didn't care what he did, how he did it, but it worked miracles in my life at the time. Of course now we all know HOW he did it...and how the others did it..and how it will end.
u b rememberin' long gas lines in '71?
yep
No, I dont remember them and didn't care. I was 13.
I was born in '59. I do remember the lines. My dad is a retired pastor, so back then he was never getting great pay until later in the 80s. Interesting huh .. I joined the USMC in '80 .. Reagan was my CinC. The real miracle when we all see it, will be Reagan's secret agent Lee Wanta .. Standby, it's all about to come online .. (post collapse that is) .. That was Reagan's vision and his real legacy. The history books are about to rewritten ..
http://eagleonetowanta.com/
* The Wanta Plan was ready to go online in the mid 90s. Instead, they put him in jail, at about the same time they murdered Vince Foster. Had it happened even before '00, we probably would not be talking collapse in this thread. But we are talking the same perps that did JFK and 9/11 ..
http://wantarevelations.com/2014/01/wanta-plan-macro-financial-economic-...
Hey, NBFD.. but by the time you went into the USMC, I had finished two tours of Naval air two years prior...
OK so that having being said.. we have all been used.
And the kids today with the monster packs sweating their asses off looking like Robo-Cop on Steroids in the desert where we do not want to be.... I just don’t know what to say.
Thank you for your service.. I am confident it was honorable.
But here is a cool anecdote for you…
Back when they had Navy boot camp in San Diego.. we had some weaklings that felt the need bug out and go over the fence --- into Pendleton.
Oh boy.. were they in for a surprise .
Oh, and one more thing ... the reason I got out back then was Carter was the CINC..
but WTF, he was way better the F in C now.
and Oh WTF while I am on a roll..
just about all of the flag officers Obummer has now would not make Jefferson's list for out -house cleaners..
oh..oh.. oh.. stop me before I hurt myself :-)
Vlad.. when the nukes start flying, save a nuke and please spare Chicago..
it will destroy itself.
good thing I am just some little schmuck commenter and not a journalist..
otherwise I would be an
"Unprivileged Beligerent".
Bush 43 wiped out the 4th Amendment.
I cannot believe I was so uniformed as to actually vote for the Yale club a-hole.
the Clown in Chief today is wiping out the 1st.
..we are all Soviets now.
http://wantarevelations.com/2014/01/wanta-plan-macro-financial-economic-...
loosing my breath ...... speachless.. I wrote the other stuff before reading this.
GHWB.. can you believe they actually named a carrier after that schmuck?
Better news was that pres peanut got a sub that we don't see much of...
Suggestion.. find a garbage scow to commemorate Schrub 43.
I'm dying here.. a banana boat for you know who.. :-D
not really a depression
perhaps a recession
i dunno
majority of ppl are not making enuf money
that is a big problem
ward 6 says:"majority of ppl are not making enuf money
that is a big problem"
well not exactly...major criminals at the top are draining the ponds of wealth..it comes down to organized crime at the top here in the west..see j corzine if you don't understand.
Our 'economic recovery'TM is the smallest dead cat bounce in history as we plunge into the 100 year depression created by the combination of world reserve currency, unparalleled world debt, gazillions of printed money, manipulated market prices, a parastitic government of oligarchs and a neo-feudalism of society soon after the absolute annihilation by countries fed up with Whorington, DC control.
Our country is going to die, sooner rather than later, and it's going to be a death by violence. External and internal. (Porch monkeys, white and black, will eradicate most of the population in a frenzy of looting.)
There is no other possibility. We have morons for leaders, morons as electors, and we're gong to get the exact government we deserve, and will pay the price for.
The dumbass in the administration and the other 504 or so so-called leaders (and the couple thousand below them) are going to kill off 95% of us on idiotic policies. The rest of the world will kill off the remaining 3 to 4%
I suggest you start having your kids learn chinese and russian. If they live, they might have jobs picking strawberries in California, Mexico or Argentina.
Exactly.
The body hit the floor, dead.
It has been strung up like a puppet.
The puppetmaster has been moving the body around like it's alive.
The strings are showing signs of imminent breakage.
One string breaks putting that much more load on the other strings.
Only a matter of time.
This time it will be a rotten decayed corpse hitting the floor.
Paging Mr. Oblammo. Paging Mr. Oblammo to the club house phone.
The r word for him means reggie
You're wrong on this one. The R word means Recovery.
SINCE LEHMAN !!!
Not until NYT runs a 1-page cartoon story!
That fast talking nigger knows jack squat. That's about it.
"Let's call a spade a spade".
not until he watches the evening news tomorrow night and finds out along with everyone else
Does that shit-fucking poor excuse of a human being, and piece of shit president even knows what this means?
BTW, Today I went to prison,
Yep, spent five hours in lock-up in a federal penitentiary.
Not a fun place.
Kenya? Soituhnly....Curly to Moe
Obama to US Middle class self immolating themselves in the flames of debt.
Is recession really the right word to describe what's going on?
No, its a Redepression.
Funny ...now 8 months of no Fed QE and then a turn .... just a coincidence I guess.
imminent, 3 minutes ago.
Caixin China PMI drops sharply, surprising marketsThe preliminary China Caixin PMI surprised markets by dropping to a 15-month low, with analysts pinning the hit on the recent stock market crash and weak export demand.
The data, released Friday, fell to 48.2, coming in well below the 49.7 forecast from a Reuters poll and the 50-mark separating growth from contraction.
"The PMI came as a big surprise for the market, which was expecting an increase," Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole private bank, said. "I believe the reading reflects the negative impact of the stock market crash, the weaker outlook for consumption and the worsening of availability of funding for investment," he said, noting that initial public offerings (IPOs) were suspended in the wake of stock market turmoil.
After the data, the Australian dollar dropped as low as $0.7293 - its lowest against the greenback since May 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis - from $0.7345 before the release. China is among Australia's largest trading partners, offering a market for resources exports. The Shanghai Composite held on to gains, although they narrowed.
The data mark a sharp contrast to China's quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data released last week, which beat forecasts by showing 7.0 percent growth, renewing long-standing concerns over data accuracy.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/23/caixin-china-pmi-falls-to-lower-than-expe...
"The PMI came as a big surprise for the market, which was expecting an increase," Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole private bank, said. "I believe the reading reflects the negative impact of the stock market crash, the weaker outlook for consumption and the worsening of availability of funding for investment," he said, noting that initial public offerings (IPOs) were suspended in the wake of stock market turmoil."
An American, a Jew and a Pollock walk into a bar...
Something
Something
Pollock: "I was expecting an increase!"
Totally unexpected totally
the Fed adopts surfer slang to describe all economic numbers not in line with official propaganda, totally.
Expect to soon see the Greek tragedy as "tubular dude"
Greek Lawnmowers have just gone on strike objecting to further cuts.
' who was told what to do by the man '
You're all over the place son!
I know , tell me about it.
Finally. Finally. Finally.
The collapse is finally near.
Convert ALL paper assets (checking, savings, stocks, bonds, retirement accounts, everything) into physical assets (gold, silver... and even a fair quantity of cash money in your possession). The bankster and government bail-ins are about to begin just about everywhere in the "highly developed world" AKA the "financialized world".
If you leave any assets in the possession of ANYONE else, they WILL vanish.
When the cliff comes, it will come so fast you cannot respond (over the weekend). So as the wise adage says, "infinitely better to be a few months too early than one second too late".
"Anything could open the door for a run on liquidity (cash), which is also why I talk about what individuals should do more and more now is try to preserve their own liquidity and to take more cash out of the markets or out of banks to just have on the side before this period of volatility, before we have the actual crash. This is a tenuous situation. I am afraid of things that look like a bail-in up to the level of a bail-in.”
http://usawatchdog.com/take-more-cash-out-of-markets-and-banks-nomi-prin...
I have to admit that Nomi is pretty hot .. I comment in the YT thread as fooser77 .. I'm not so hard on Nomi as I am on the FED .. I'm just a bit puzzeled why Nomi is not informed as much as I apparently am .. It's not that hard .. You just have to read a little bit .. Of course, I do have some connections with some that had titles of Asst. SECDEF for counter-intelligence/terrorism .. So, I guess that helps a bit ..
"The sherrif is near" ...
'no goldarnit - the sherriff is a ni-GONG"
yeah, yeah yeah, I been reading about this immunent crash for years now. yYou are into disaster pr0n. How long do we gotta wait? A week, a month, 3.3 months, a year? I will come back a year from now and will still read the same immunent disaster to happen! All will be changed is the date and a few more mass shootings.
You are one of the towns folk who have grown tired of hearing the cry of "wolf."
Even though you know the wolf will eventually come, you have started to tell yourself: "hey, why not be totally unprepared for it?"
-1. I've been reading here for 6 years, and I've never heard of you. Where is your evidence? What is the catalyst for this event? I think you're just taking the piss.
near or far all is relative...
could near be another 10 years, 100 or maybe 2?
I'm in the middle of loan negotiation, literally betting the house, first will be a pound of gold (at current prices, holy shit!) and 50 pounds of silver...next tiling the floor, which is what my wife wants and I'm doing the entire fucking refi for. Yeah, could pay the house off in five years or refi for another thirty...but a pound of gold should offset that pretty well in the next ten years. (Don't touch my fucking silver. That shit came in handy when my wife got really fucking sick. When you talk to your doctor about cost, ask them about paying in silver. There's a LOT of doctors that will take 100 silver dollars for a surgery. It's essentially unreportable, free money, to them. And we all know they deserve a few extra bucks when the chips come down, it's like a tip for services delivered.)
People need to buy more crap from amazon then lol
AMZN better saty in biz - if not I might actually have go out past the gate?
Time to start some wars, otherwise we can't afford this
Dont worry, yellen will have another speech prepared for us goyim to have some glimmer of hope....
Dear leader Executive order, EBTs are now good for any goods and service. First month's amount is doubled.
#Lettherichpayforit or #Letthegrandkidspayforit
Holding breath /not
who will be blamed this time?
get your popcorn ready
Harry Bush!
NO - I blame Hairy Bush for my economic decline
You are what you eat.
Material (commodity) cost has a lot to do with the drop in dollar trade. It is not volume as far as I can tell.
You are much too intelligent to be posting here.
The drop in oil explains the biggest chunk.
but....but...Squawk Box said it's all bullsih
The ignorant asshole oligarchs eat their own. Move all the jobs from the west to low wage countries and then wonder why nobody has any money to buy anything. Fuck you
try discounting this for printed money...and you will see there was never a recovery...just a banker ponzi!
Obama wants to know if the recession can wait until after Martha's vineyard trip. Him and Reggie need some time alone
Are they going to get married now that it is "legal"?
Great! I hope the price of rope comes down a little, because I did not have enough to make it around my neck nor over the tree branch this morning!; I will have to wait till I get my next $200 paycheck!
SH
Don't hang yourself, hang a banker or a politician. And don't just think rope, use anything at hand. A clothes line, electric cord, rusty barbed wire, grow some flax and learn to make your own cordage. The choices are endless. Have fun with the mayhem!
Meanwhile the median house price in Sydney has now surpassed a million $ while wages are at there most stagnant since federation,and terms of trade deteriorating.Why last month was a record current account deficit?
Can't make this shit up.
The definition of a Ponzi
"A fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors. The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors. This scam actually yields the promised returns to earlier investors, as long as there are more new investors. These schemes usually collapse on themselves when the new investments stop."
A Million Dollars for a rat and cockroach infested dump.
It will choke itself.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ponzischeme.asp#ixzz3glDUlAcIFollow us: @Investopedia on Twitter
The algorithm of destruction replicates in a predictable manner each business quarter. Only funny money could be propping this fiasco up.
You can fake sales, GDP, and demand.
You will not see profit faked because people have to pay taxes on profit.
Profits after taxes say we have been in a recession for the last 5 quarters.
Richter party...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1FS_vKJl8U
Everything is bullshit and lies. The U.S. never got the hell out of the "Great Recession" - we've been meandering along at a snail's pace and now it's slowing even more. We're headed into a damn Depression.
Will have lowest unemployment ever, and 300 million will not be looking for work.
should work out great.
Look on the bright side.
Visions of bankers throwing themselves off tall buildings springs to mind...
Still not emphatic enough yet to cancel the rate hike and go straight to the pre-election QE. This could call for some careful timing.
Timing the bazooka may be impossible this time as there are concurrent eruptions in China, US, Japan, EU/Greece.
Each Central Bank is trying to throttle trillion dollar economies that have been spun-up for 7 years with massive fiat finance and leverage. The built-up rotation momentum must be impossible to slow down or control. Each spun-up gyro operating concurrently and independently, yet on the same world axis...sparks will fly.
Sure, imminent in the grand scheme of things, like a meteor striking the earth at some point is imminent. What I want to know is if it's going to happen while I'm still young enough to give a fuck.
Ah, just in time for the September crash.... right on schedule....
Right in time for the. 40% Obamacare plan hikes
The US Is Already In A Recession! http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=267901.0
Well well well … https://youtu.be/jCHHJdmqAH4?t=59s
To all my ZeroHedge friends: I am not a bot and this is a real offer. If you want out of the markets I will lend you 94% of what ever you want to sell and make a 30 year loan at Zero % Interest, to avoid Capital Gains on anything. A Business, Real Estate ( Commercial or Residential) Art, Planes, Cars, or an Entire Stock Portfolio. If you are interested please email me at lordariok1938_at_gmail.com
My friend is a prince from Nigeria and he's been looking for something exactly like this for a while.
I'll send him your way.
I have an igloo to sell. Any takers?
sure I would like to put up everything for collateral, except for my gold.
get back to me when you have some physical gold or silver for sale for $800 & $10 per oz respectively - thanks
Walmart just offered me 10 per hour to really do nothing compared to what I do for Kroger at 7.30 per hour.
Should I stay at Kroger, cutting steaks, and serving old nasty entitled people farm raised salmon?
Should I forsake carrying large ice trays to clean out at the end of the night for more money?
Hate Walmart, but at least they will pay me just enough to get by.
Look, this is a nightmare! I have tons of experience, wiith a university education.
I made the mistake being a "stay at home Dad".
Just got divorced, but I owe her nothing; becuase the girls are with me, so I guess I'm really lucky.
SH
Hans,
My hat is off to you. I was in that same situation 24 years ago. Take the jobs that pay the most, get her on child support and do not let her off easy. If you need free guidance, look up FATHERS UNITED as they helped me tremendously. Free legal advise as well as life-long advice.... Good luck, Sir.
The best of luck to you. I guess if it was me, I would take the job with WallyWorld. At least you can grab the ammo when the shit hits the fan while others are going for TV sets and I-Crap. At least the little extra pay might hold you over until a better opportunity comes along. Although there is that Black Friday thing....
You're a Peep Hole fan?
I hate WM too. Do not buy meat there.
OTOH Kroger is stiffing you. Worked at a grocery store in high school (late 80s) and I would swear the guys working the meat counter made more than that then. And that was a non-union employer in a right to work state.
IIRC I was making $8 an hour at Home Depot around '92. Random inflation calculator says that would be $13.62 now.
So, $7.30 an hour 23 years later? Sad.
Edit: Just for grins checked out minimum wage at my first job(s) in high school; fast food, skating rink, sandwich shop. $4.25 = $9.13 now. So, even if you believe that minimum wage jobs are for gaining experience, not supporting a family, those wages haven't kept up.
how can a person get by at 10 an hour??
Go for the $
SuperHans, go for the extra pay at Walmart. $7.30/hour is horrible; $10/hour is not nearly so bad.
Hike Smurf Yellen! Hike!!! Muuuhahahahahaha!!!
The Baltic Dry index says this article is either wrong or seriously lagging.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
or BDI is an amomaly, gotta' figger that whatever VLCCz carryin' Iranian crude add to the index.
or BDI is also manipulated???
- Ned
Good Question.
I imagine that the reason has more to do with the fall of comodities. So iron ore and oil continues to be shipped and shipped at a decent rate to make up for the shrinkage in price. It's falling further because everyone is producing more and trying to make up for the poor take, that in turn kills the price further. The margins are no longer there, so you may need two ships wort to make the same as you did with one.
It's an index based on activity. Activity hasn't seized, but the profit margin on that activity has.
So baisically we are doing more and getting less out of it.
zerohedge, how many such warnings have you given since 2009? do you know that 2007 crash was not needed - not of that proportion. Just giving you a hint. Looks like you have made a very stable career now forecasting... someday something bad will definitely happen...
by the way, i did not know the recession was over, and you are talking about a new recession?
well, since you have been around these here parts for less than a month, how would you know? How do you know that the '07 crash (that nobody can figger out) was needed or not?
and, maybe, perhaps, the Tylerz are not the ones talking about ...
I'm a'guessin' that u just contradicted urself.
- Ned
a lot of people have been here 4 years without officially signing up. i only signed up to add comments every now and then and to give a thumbs up as well. but i too have been here a long time and this poster is correct.
No actually you are a shithead and a bitch. You and your faggot troll buddy up above. Calamity is here and has been papered over bitch. Get ready.
Get the full picture here (lots more charts)
https://828cloud.wordpress.com/tag/global/
off topic:
http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2015/07/22/mystery-man-found-decomposing-...
The Nikkei farce is looking a little over cooked. (caugh*caugh* $ carry trade)
16:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying 576.3B 164.0B
16:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 622.6B -853.4B
BTFD!
Atleast we have a template now of how to get out of a recession; Double the national debt, print the money we don't get in taxes and make sure everyone who doesn't want to work gets a free lifetime supply of ebt cards.
This is all the news needed to sell moar gold and silver.
Gold 800 and silver 10 by Christmas?
Everything is probably being produced by FRAUD as it has been since 2009. I think FRAUD crumbles faster than most other stuff. Good time to buy physical.
I have to work on an indicator that will be the monkey, er... canary in the coal mine.
I think I will name it The Boon Index.
It will track the number of incidence of baboon crimes which is in direct correlation to the cutting off of entitlements.
As with all of the GOV indicators, it will not give any time to act and thus worthless, worthless like actions of, and the boons it keeps track of.
Let's not kid ourselves.
The U.S. has been in a *suppressed* recession/depression since Lehman.
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no worries, the recession is contained ... contained that is to the Middle Class. The upper 5% have no worries they will ever miss 5-course dinner.
Middle class Soylent Green.
"Feed the rich to the poor".
If world trade is down then it is EXPORTING countries that are in trouble.
If world trade is down it is countries that maintained large trade SURPLUSES that are in trouble.
The one open market in the world that made those exports and surpluses possible might not be in as much trouble.
You have to be on ignorant son of a bitch to be selling gold.
if you have physical gold and you are selling it, then you just might be another data point proving that humans are the dumbest species on the planet
Buying DUST is = to selling gold.
It's equivalent to selling gold at 3x any gold drop, and of course it can drop as fast as it can rise.
I bought mine at $21 and change and still have it.
I may be an ignorant SOB, but I'm a much wealthier one for having sold gold.
And it ain't over till the fat lady sings...and she's still a long time coming.
When will these fuckers crash for once?!?!?!?!?!
Oh my what will another financial collapse do toObama's precious legacy?
My confidence is high, this will come to a point before year end; probably, as is widely speculated, during the September-October timeframe.
Nomi Prins' interview with Greg Hunter this week, pretty much settled it for me. She was apparently invited to speak to the Fed and other central bankers on the seriousness of the situation, and found some of them "scared". They sure should be...
If any increase to, say, 50 bps is made, Wall Street will respond very negatively, and she thinks the Fed would wind back the hike pretty quickly, WITH additional QE to boot.
Either condition, over several sessions, will blow a complete hole in all the recovery bullshit we keep hearing.
It's that no-win scenerio that is wearing on them.
It should be.
If you don't have your best prep competed by then, you could be in trouble...
m