This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Did The Canary In The Credit Coalmine Just Croak: Capital One Credit Loss Provisions Soar By 60%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Everyone knows Capital One's trite soundbite: "What's in your wallet?"

Overnight, the market found out what's in Capital One's balance sheet, and it didn't like it one bit.

Yesterday, Capital One Financial reported earnings that fell well short of consensus: the $311 billion-company's Q2 profit was $863 million, down 28% Y/Y. EPS was an ugly $1.50, $0.47 cents below the consensus estimate.  Surprisingly this earnings plunge took place even as overall revenue rose 4% to $5.7 billion.

So what gives: a closer read through the numbers reveals that while average wages across the US are barely rising enough to cover inflation, Capital One felt the need to really incentivize its workfore with an increase in salaries and benefits 10 times higher than the national average, up 21%, to $1.4 billion, while marketing costs increased 16%, and professional-services fees grew 13%.

At the same time headcount increased 7%, to 47,500 even though COF concurrently took a $147 million charge for the restructuring its benefits plan "as a result of the realignment of our workforce." COF did not provide details on the workforce changes that led to the charge.

End result: in moments, the stock wiped out all of its hard-earned gains for the year, and then some:

 

But the biggest shocker was something else found between COF's top and bottom line: a surge in provisions for credit losses: at $1.1 billion this was a jump of 21% from Q1 and up a whopping 60% from the year prior. It was also the biggest credit loss provision the credit card company has taken since Q2 2012.

So the question: is this dramatic deterioration in COF's loan book specific to the financial company which is nowhere near having a balance sheet big enough to mask its deteriorating loan book (or quality it for Too Big To Prosecute and/or Fail status), or is this a very loud, and very dead, canary in the credit coalmine, suggesting US consumers are suddenly unable to repay even their most basic purchases on credit?

As for Capital One, we wonder: "Is that a blowing up loan book in your wallet"? We hope to have the answer over the next several quarters, especially if as the Fed's leak today suggested, a rate hike, which will lead to even greater credit losses, is imminent.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:41 | 6350067 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Whats in yer wallet?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:46 | 6350094 Itch
Itch's picture

29% APR and a dollar bill.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:47 | 6350100 summerof71
summerof71's picture

But... but... I get points! On all my purchases! $100 spent = 100 points = $1 ! I am part of the 1% cash back club, love robbing my local merchants of 3 to get my 1. Capital #1 baby.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:54 | 6350133 Waylon Bits
Waylon Bits's picture

Fuck you credit!  Die Mutha Ucker!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:05 | 6350178 r101958
r101958's picture

"End result: in moments, the stock wiped out all of its hard-earned gains for the year, and then some."

'Hard-earned'?   ---I think maybe a typo?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 20:32 | 6351309 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

I have had one for years at a 0 balance, they try to get me to spend....so they can collect their debt asset.

I could just close it down.....

Fuck em....ill keep that carrot hanging.

Just might have to buy some (thing*) before they find out what non recourse is.

 

 

RIPS

 

*Actual Physical Thing

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 17:18 | 6350684 kenny500c
kenny500c's picture

Apply for their "Quicksilver" card, it pays back 1.5% cash on all purchases.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:56 | 6350144 Waylon Bits
Waylon Bits's picture

"What's in your wallet?"

Which one?  They are all in cold storage and have many, many BTC in them!  I guess you'll never know Capital One....

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 00:05 | 6351833 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

"What's in your wallet?" JPY , and mine is fater than yours.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:05 | 6350182 stant
stant's picture

At least your backed up by 1 dalla of capitol

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:56 | 6350096 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Yes the canary croaked. There were not enough consumers to consume him so he croaked of manipulation. To be sure, it was death by a 1000 cuts... But he wasn't consumed.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:10 | 6350205 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Maybe it was a black swan, hard to tell in a coal mine.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:28 | 6350520 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Black like the black racist spokesman they have in Samuel L. Jackson or that other douchebag Alec Baldwin or the wife of that douchebag Ben Affleck?

This scum are all spokesvermin for Capital One.  F them.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:35 | 6350543 SixIsNinE
SixIsNinE's picture

better watch it now, ol Hulk Hogan is ERASED from WWE history, an old podcast with "horrid" racial slurs has emerged....all merchandising the Hulkster is ERASED

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:51 | 6350592 To Hell In A Ha...
To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

3 days on a race awareness course and a grovellling appology should fix it. lol.  A trip to Angloa to help the needy and lay the first brick in the foundation, will make him look reformed. Better still, drop the tears and repent in front of Oprah and his career is bigger than before. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 21:10 | 6351432 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

Not a canary nor a black swan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj8RIEQH7zA

 

and the only reason it was sitting on the perch in the first place is because it had been nailed there.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:18 | 6350242 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

No corp decides to heavily "incentivize" for no reason. There's a reason, and if the market knew what it was, it would be even less happy.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:56 | 6350390 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

i doubt very much if the typical person who does all the work at Capital One saw all of that 21% increase.

Usually the huge increase is just for the select few.  And they're worth it, ya know.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 17:39 | 6350772 Umh
Umh's picture

They were in the news for layoffs today along with the Newport News shipyard.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:48 | 6350112 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Unlce SAM and my X....Fuck you! Sherry

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:49 | 6350115 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

I wonder how much of that will be for litigation expenses?  And I wonder what they have done?  What is the equivalent of mortgage fraud for credit cards and personal loans?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:56 | 6350142 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Likely misrepresenting quality of securitized CC debt.

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:07 | 6350191 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Crap One hasn't been securitizing very much lately.  

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922869/000119312515255588/d35610d...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:43 | 6350198 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Don't forget Capital One and Santander are both deep, deep into sub subprime used car lending. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:08 | 6350192 iClaudius
iClaudius's picture

"Whats in yer wallet?"
Moths!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:22 | 6350497 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

You have a wallet?!

 

Braggart!!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 21:37 | 6351510 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

What's in my wallet? Same as everyone else. RFID chips in your bills, drivers license & credit cards.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 21:42 | 6351520 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Who's in your wallet?

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 08:50 | 6352334 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Whats in yer wallet?"

Same thing that's in your portfolio, suckah.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:44 | 6350084 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There's nothing in my wallet that's why I use Capital One dumbass.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:47 | 6350103 Itch
Itch's picture

We should really start a mass movement to bankrupt companies like Capital One, everyone take out a card, splurge, and watch it tank. We have the coms, we have the technology, all we need is the common sense.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:49 | 6350116 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Max out credit cards to buy PMs and ammo thn default. That will crush em.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:17 | 6350235 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I'm really tempted to use a $200k biz credit line to buy PM's right now Doc.

Its unsecured, and maybe its time to switch businesses.

The rotting fish has got down to main street level.I'll pay all the trade creditors,but the banks...fuckit.

Do you have any medication for that Doc ?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:55 | 6350378 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

don't leave a paper trail

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:56 | 6350384 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

While the appears to be in sight it may be far enough away for such a plan to really bite you.

My advise is...be patient...it sucks but in the long run you will come out ahead.

I suspect the bank would really try to recover that stash when they found out what happened....especially if the stash is very valuable.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:23 | 6350499 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Do it in under $10k amounts.

Sounds like my kind of shopping spree.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:50 | 6350588 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

i think that limit is even less now.  Ask Denny Hastert for guidance.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:56 | 6350609 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

i think that limit is even less now.  Ask Denny Hastert for guidance.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:53 | 6350127 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Don't expend your efforts. Just look at American Express, Visa, and Mastercard. Let them lay in there own shit storm. Cash rules!

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 08:52 | 6352338 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

But oh the irony when your attempts to bankrupt Capital One actually help the economy.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:48 | 6350106 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Everyone has learned credit card companies take from your wallet. How is the backpage boycott working out for you? 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-backpage-dart-restr...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:48 | 6350111 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The sub-prime credit card is in the mail......

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:51 | 6350124 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

It's a glitch, bitch.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:55 | 6350140 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Time to refurnish a few Wallmarts.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:57 | 6350146 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture
Did The Canary In The Credit Coalmine Just Croak

US debts and unfunded liabilities easily exceed $1,700,000 per taxpayer and they rise at least $70,000 per taxpayer per year. Lots of croaking in America's future:

Renowned economist Laurence Kotlikoff recently testified at the U.S. Senate about the runaway U.S. budget.  How bad is it?  Kotlikoff says, “I told them the real (2014) deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. . . . The government is 58% underfinanced . . . . Social Security is 33% underfinanced . . . . So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape.”  So, how much is America on the hook for in the future?  Kotlikoff contends, “If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justices’ salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything and take all those expenditures into the future . . . and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, and the difference is $210 trillion.  That’s the fiscal gap.  That’s our true debt.”

http://usawatchdog.com/financial-system-will-collapse-just-a-matter-of-w...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:01 | 6350167 PTR
PTR's picture

I've always wanted to know how far in the future that $210 trillion dollar figure accounts for.

 

It's going on 20 years and I still haven't heard ONE person mutter an end point that this figure falls into.

 

Today?  2187?  Anyone?

 

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:09 | 6350186 DeProgrammed
DeProgrammed's picture

If you subscribe to MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) you already know that .gov debt doesn't matter. /sarc /barf

Edit to add: Guess who suggested I "educate" myself on MMT after seeing my rants about the Fed and debt on FB... A Bankster!!!  LOLROFLMAO I'm feeling giddy.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:14 | 6350221 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Billy blog. Ask above poster what his weekend quiz rate equates to. I love getting those emails to predict what the cunt licks are going to do. 

Shhhhhhh.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:45 | 6350324 DeProgrammed
DeProgrammed's picture

LOL, thank goodness i got a 0.

Congratulations - you have completed Quiz 2015 - 31.

Your Score

You scored 0 out of 3.

You thus achieved a score of 0.00 per cent overall.

Saturday Quiz Rating

  • For beginners do not despair - improvement will come with study and a thorough purging of any prior economic knowledge.
  • If you scored less than 66.6% then you have neo-liberal tendencies which need debriefing.
  • If you scored between 66.6% and 99% you are becoming a soldier in the modern monetary army.
  • If you scored 100% you qualify for the MMT Friend of the State/Friend of the People award.
Fri, 07/24/2015 - 20:37 | 6351346 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

If you try to use that math and logic youre not going to get this piece of paper dumbass.

 

Rips

 

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:11 | 6350210 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

You can take it as at about 50 years into the future.  But remember that in 2003 this figure was only $60 trillion.  So this number grows rapidly.

As indicated in the chart below, the fiscal gap has risen dramatically over the past dozen years. This reflects interest accrual. But the major reasons for the growth in the fiscal gap from $60 trillion in 2003 to $210 trillion today are tax cuts, increases in Medicaid and Medicare benefit levels, additional defense spending, and the introduction of Medicare Part D. 

http://www.kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/Kotlikoffbudgetcom2-25-2015...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:57 | 6350150 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
Falling commodities prices cost 6,000 people their jobs at Anglo-American

http://www.businessinsider.com/6000-people-lose-jobs-at-anglo-american-2...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:04 | 6350175 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

FEMA camp ID card in your wallet

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:04 | 6350177 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

The real story here is the wage increases.  I have a hunch that the White Hoiuse has been somewhat successful at prodding Corporate America into raising salaries.  Look out if this is true.  I guess we'll know by the end of the 3rd quarter because we should see a rise in spending, which will cause the shorts to explode.  

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:31 | 6350292 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It will be media telegraph hyped as new GDP grow cycle in its 8th year of quantitative sleezing. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:06 | 6350183 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Credit card companies never get cited for pimping, prostitution, and kidnapping your bank account over prediatory inflated Credit Card scam artists utilizing federal reserve zero interest access. 

Think about that. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:08 | 6350196 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

$863 million in profit on $5.7 billion in revenue?!

Good plunder margins.

Liberty is demand. Tyranny is submission..

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:10 | 6350206 farmboy
farmboy's picture

You can mark assets to fantasy unless they mature :)

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:16 | 6350230 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I think I have a bill from Capital One from 2009 sitting on my desk.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:18 | 6350239 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

I do think this is a big deal - during the depths of the recession, CEO Rich Fairbank stated many times that consumers were bailing on their mortgages but keeping current with their credit card payments.  If that now has changed....

Also, much of the workforce at COF is waaay overpaid.  They think of themselves as truly special and different compared to the rest of corporate America, and they reward themselves as such.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:25 | 6350263 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

The only exception I take with this article: "End result: in moments, the stock wiped out all of its hard-earned gains for the year, and then some."

I'm not sure it's "hard-earned" to borrow at 2% and lend at 25% to down-on-their-luck working stiffs.  Have those COF execs dig a ditch or spend a day picking strawberries. Then we can talk about "hard-earned"...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:46 | 6350335 Christophe2
Christophe2's picture

Making a business out of screwing people (ex: usury) is actually pretty hard to do, in practice.  The people committing such evil inevitably end up miserable themselves (karma), and their anger at their personal misery turns them even more stupidly motivated to harm and predate on the rest of society.

I would far rather spend my years digging ditches than screwing people over.  Nothin' beats waking up completely refreshed from a great night's sleep, or being at peace with yourself, in general.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 18:16 | 6350934 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

Sociopaths sleep like babies and say fuck karma.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 22:16 | 6351598 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

If Karma really existed then why aren't people like Obama, McConnell, Pelosi, Boehner, Feinstein, Hitlery, McShitStain, Lloyd, Dimon, et al, getting their just deserts?

Either these psychopaths have specially built Karma blocking force fields or something else is going on.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 22:32 | 6351630 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Be patient.

Karma:

There is no need for revenge.

Just sit back and wait.

Those who hurt you will eventually screw up themselves and, eventually, if you are lucky, God will let you watch.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:26 | 6350269 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Don't look back in Anger, i heard you say.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:30 | 6350289 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

This is great news as it means people were buying things. Krugman approves. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:36 | 6350303 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Who knows, they tend to underestimate on those provisions, so increase could make up for last quarter and be part of some clever accounting scheme, or even PR - hey, now if they don't lose that much, the stock jumps up!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:39 | 6350315 Tom_Pain
Tom_Pain's picture

Capital One repossessed my car during the depths of the 2009 recession, and were certainly well within their rights to do so.

I was upside-down on my financing, so I had a balance due.  By the time I was back on my feet enough to consider repaying it, doing so would cause my credit rating more harm than good, since it would keep the account "current" for seven more years, instead of just letting it fall off the end of my credit record completely next year.

I have a Capital One credit card in my wallet, with a substantial credit limit.  (I pretty much sent in the application as a joke).  They also constantly send me junk mail, with offers to re-finance the loan on my used car.

I certainly have no intention of defaulting on either account, but statistically, there's nothing to indicate that I am a better risk now than I was in 2008, or  even 2009 or 2010, for that matter.  The economy may (arguably) be better, but if my income dries up, my "outgo" eventually will, too, just like last time.  Insanity is making the same mistakes, and expecting different results.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 21:19 | 6351464 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

You bring up a good point.  I get offers to take out a car loan with them all the time.  I wonder what the mix is between auto loans and credit cards.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 15:51 | 6350359 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Civil unrest follows.

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:07 | 6350429 stock market loser
stock market loser's picture

It' definitely a bull market a BULLSHIT market. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 16:46 | 6350576 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

"Canary in the Credit Coal mine..."

It is lines like that that keep me coming back to ZH.

And COF is OK, it only lost $11.73 today, a  measly 12.93%

 

BTFD!

(Do I need a sarc tag here? I wouldn't touch these toxic fuckers with a ten foot pole.)

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 22:21 | 6351606 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Even with a ten foot pole you'd be neck deep in the toxic sludge pond.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 17:09 | 6350649 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

All we need to do is change the schedule for long term capital gains and everything will fix itself.

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 17:10 | 6350653 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Uncle Louis!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 17:22 | 6350696 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

The Canary could have been defended and possibly saved by the Mockingbird. For more details see the link below.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/world-economy-visualized#commen...

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 18:17 | 6350937 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

"What's in your wallet?"  Apparently, a lot of your customers have nothing!  

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 18:40 | 6351013 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

It was car loans. Credit card debt was up, while change offs and delinquency were down, MoM and YoY for their card business.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 20:30 | 6351319 KuriousKat
KuriousKat's picture

Hmmm being we are in a corporate oligarchy It may be that the new mantra for patriotism will be not spend more but  save america..pay your debts. I am curious about whether these losses are papered like when you make a late payment in a mortgage that put you in default status although you may never actually default or let the house go. Also whether people who have paid their accounts in full and no longer use but keep the credit line as Fica always tells us to do are they factored into these losses..  Layoffs are a clear signal something is afoot..Barclays announced theirs too..Discover is cutting a lot of its frills like road side hazard.. the one good thing I say are reductions in interest at 8 percent on barclays. and extend 0 percent periods ..as long as you dont add more debt..that is a good thing..Capitol certainly went overboard years ago throwing credit cards at the poorest high risk at high interest ..just like Santander....just give me a card with low interest and the hell with the frill and cash back programs. just sayin.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 22:28 | 6351619 Porous Horace
Porous Horace's picture

The reason that Capital One is in trouble is the money they spend sending my wife and I card offers. We sometimes get two or three a day, and never less than one. It's been going on for at least six months. When will they get the hint? My credit union gives me a card with half the interest rate.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 00:39 | 6351883 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Use that Capital One Card to get a house full of furniture and apliances at Rent-A-Center.

Capital One interest rate 21.9%. + Rent-A-Center interest rate 159% =  New Furniture!

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 02:47 | 6352014 newbie vampire
newbie vampire's picture

Ain't no reason to git all Xcited.   What's dere to worry about what national debt ?   All we gotta do is say the Chicoms hacked into the Super Duper Never break down firewall at the US govt. and wiped out all the data.

So sorry folks, we dun know what we owe and who we owe it to.   Game, set and match.

Whats reelly important is, who knows how to write a program that can get into a bank's system and wipe out all dem details about credit card and all other kinds of debt.

That would be a service to hoomanity.  Free moola and goodies fur everyone.

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 09:06 | 6352374 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

"Deficits don't matter."

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 14:13 | 6353301 knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

Obummer said:  raising the debt ceiling "does not increase our debt. It does not grow our deficits. It does not allow for a single dime of increased spending. All it does is allow the Treasury Department to pay for what Congress has already spent."

So, we all need to go out and get another credit card at the low, low, low, low introductory rate of 29% and use this debt to pay debt You people here at Zerohedge obviously don't know how a fiat monetary system works.  It works by increasing debt to pay debt! 

You need to learn from the Keynesian masters!  Go out and borrow and spend, and just keep kicking the can down the road with more debt!  That's how it's done, and Capital One is no different.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!