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Fed "Accidentally" Released Dovish Confidential Market-Moving Forecasts, Blames "Glitch"
First The 'unaudited' Fed leaks its FOMC minutes. Then they leak 'inside-information' to Nikkei's latest addition, Medley Global advisors (and remain "above the law" with regard consequences. And now, The Fed admits it leaked full blown confidential economic projections (due to a code glitch), whose summary assessment is shown below as per the leaked file.
While superficially, and as expected, the Fed is assuming a 1.26% fed funds rate in one year, suggesting about 3-4 rate hikes until then, with the first one according to the leaked documents taking place in Q3:
... the overall strength of the economy is well weaker, and thus more dovish, than many of the permabulls had expected.
As Bloomberg notes,
- *FED SAYS IT INADVERTENTLY RELEASED STAFF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
- *FED SAYS PROJECTIONS POSTED TO PUBLIC WEBSITE ON JUNE 29
The leaked projections were:
- *FED STAFF PROECTIONS SHOW YEAR-END FED FUNDS OF 0.35% 2015
- *FED STAFF PROJECTIONS SEE FED FUNDS AT 1.26% 4Q 2016
- *FED STAFF PROJECTIONS SEE GDP 2.31% 2015, 2.38% 2016
And these are the key projections as revealed in the leaked file (ZIP file can be found here). Note that the Fed expects a long-term 10Y rate of 4.25%, and potential GDP output to renormalize by 2020.
Or in other words, quite more dovish than anyone expecting a strong, "escape velocity" surge in the economy had hoped for: certainly far weaker than what an imminent rate hike suggests.
The impact of the "glitch" on the bond market can be seen the moment it hit by this dramatic move in the 2Year:
As for the reason for the leak - simple - same as every other leak - a technical "glitch":
Economic projections prepared by Federal Reserve Board staff as background for the June 16-17, 2015, meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were inadvertently included in a computer file posted to the Board's public website on June 29. Because the information has already been released, the Federal Reserve is today providing general public notification and making those projections more easily accessible on our website within the FRB/US model package (ZIP) data folder.
Approximately every three months, Federal Reserve Board staff update and publish on the Board's website a package of computer code of the Board staff's FRB/US model of the U.S. economy, including a set of illustrative economic projections based only on publicly available information.
On June 29, an updated package of code was posted that inadvertently included three files containing staff economic forecasts that are confidential FOMC information. Two files contained charts of the staff's projections for economic variables such as the unemployment rate, the core inflation rate, and gross domestic product growth as well as the staff's assumption for the path of the federal funds rate target selected by the FOMC. Another file contained computer code used to generate a table displaying staff economic projections.
The projections that were inadvertently released are staff projections that do not incorporate policymakers' views, including their views on monetary policy. Policymaker views were set forth in the monetary policy statement and projection materials released on June 17 and in the minutes of the June FOMC meeting and the Summary of Economic Projections published on July 8.
Consistent with the procedures in the FOMC's Program for Security of FOMC Information, this matter has been referred to the Board's Inspector General.
But do not worry - despite the fact that they cannot upload a zip file in a timely manner, they are fully in charge of the world's economic future.
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Its hard to fap and hit the right buttons at the same time.....
The Fed provides me with such deep warm and fuzzies. I am so confident of the future that I am just giddy with excitement.
More behavior oft associated with incompetents or criminal enterprises.
I still don't believe the Fed. I think all this rate hike talk is just BS. Now they 'accidentally' released info that says they are going to raise rates. I'm still not buying it.
The glitch button is right next to the print button
were the originals in crayon? with some of Janet's drool on them?
Laughabull(sh*t) excuse
... accidentally.....
in other terms, public n market manipulation.
it is so evident and lame it is not anymore laughtable, it is just pathetic.
Didn't we used to call these "trial balloons?"
pods
The market is raising rates.
The Fed is 'data dependent' (without a coherent position).
Whoops!
and i thought today was going to be another wonderful buy the dip opportunity.
When Janet can't even keep her PDFs secure, how can one expect her to manage the global economy?
Anyone that utters the word "Glitch" should be tarred and feathered on the spot
Forget about auditing the Fed, let’s just abolish it.
Accidentally.........on purpose
The glitch button is right next to the print button
And next to the "SELL GOLD" button.
The SELL GOLD button is actually a pressure switch in the seat of the chair.
So flash crashes are just occurrences of flatulence then?
just gold glitchez
..bitchez
We fixed the glitch.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqjQDP9KX6E
The release/leak is intentional and accomplishes two things. 1) tests the waters in regards to the rate hike 2) allows market to get used to the idea and not be surprised by it and hopefully avoid a panic down move.
I hope the market tanks.
Team America!!!! FUCK YEAH!!!!
It's another attempt to "talk" the overheated markets down. I think if the markets weren't continually hitting new tops and started pricing in the rate hike, the Fed would actually postpone the hike due to "data". Which sux, but the market keeps calling the Fed's bluff and refuses to price in the rate hike. It's a catch-22 no matter what they do at this point. If there ever was a window to raise, they missed it.
That window existed around 2010. It is closed now.
They are never going to raise anything, it's going to be nothing but all time highs from here on out, buckle up
Propaganda.
I'm not buying it either, and I'm wondering how long until the FED declares "self-help" against interest rate policy!?
http://www.simplyhired.com/search?q=psychologist+job&l=Federal+Reserve+B...
*accidently*
Rates are not going anywhere. FLATLINE for all time, extrapolated into the future.
Why would they stop the free money train, it's so fucking efficient in enslaving the sheep
...and politicians. Oh but yeah, that's redundant.
Glitches
Next Yellen'll be blaming bitches.
Yep, they will NEVER raise rates right QE junkies?
Yeah, QE4 coming any day now. ROFL!
The POMO desk is still trading, the President's Working Group is still administering, and the Fed's balance sheet remains stretched at all time highs.
Say what you want about QE, but the Fed is still manipulating markets. All markets. Don't forget that.
We are Japanese if you please.
We are Japanese if you don't please.
We are turning Japanese, turning Japanese,I really think so.
Thanks Ms - I considered "PooBah" as a psued once...
Save YOUR face!
I blame the "GLITCH" on that stupid "BITCH"
Are we kids, who in this fucked world believes it was a glitch, an accident? Maybe the retards.
Oh come on! Cut Old Yeller a break. She only uses one iPhone.
You know what it is? It is panic. They got insight to current/very recent real data showing the hyperinflaction is very close to the boiling point but just can't announce it very fast in a panicky mode officially for obvious reason but hey, if just enough of a smelly fart is let to go the ones with the sensible nose will get it. Remember, at the level where the game plays from billions up nothing happens by accident without a reason and it always comes with a manipulation aspect to it.
Hyperinflation is a LONG way off... M2 money velocity is nearing historic lows and will not likely normalize for some time.
Agree TDM ... the Fed is fighting deflation ... and losing. If they really start hiking rates, they are going to blow the whole fucking shebang sky high. This is just BS jawboning, leakboning, glitchboning, and lieboning. The only fucking thing they got left in their bag of tricks is crossing the zero bound ... like that would fucking fix anything.
Regards,
Cooter
Cause deflations killed how many currencies?
RIPS
"The only fucking thing they got left in their bag of tricks is crossing the zero bound." --CrazyCooter
Yeah, and real rates are already below zero, so it's the continuation of the currency wars putting unrelenting upward pressure on the DXY that Kathryn Dominguez will be dealing with, assuming her ascension to the FRB goes through as Obama wants. A collapsing periphery could keep the core currencies elevated for much of the next decade, during which the maintenance of if-only-we-could-get-more-inflation type core CPI numbers shouldn't be too troublesome. Of course, we on Main Street will be feeling the creep of real day-to-day cost increases, but the Fed and the BLS will likely have no problem glossing over that until the 2020s.
why do you think fed has market's, or anybody's for that matter, best interest in mind? it's time to burn the economy to the ground. boom and bust are the feds only playbook. the last 6-7 years were not really a boom, at least not to the mainstreet, so now they have to compensate with the bust. the fed is doing what it has always been doing - consolidating wealth by the means of engineered depressions. so the TBTF can buy everything for pennies on the dollar. so called black black swan is just the trigger, not the cause. it's just a matter of time something will start the avalanche after the policy has been set.
I don't pretend to know the markets well enough to understand how the Fed's interpeting the data. But I do know people well enough and the context of the statment you make coming from a "Preseve the Dollar point of view". Which to a normal person would be the appropriate thing to do.
But if the mindset is to destroy and consolidate to preserve the dollar, how would the data be read then?
Well, I beg to think different. otherwise why would they do it?! they could just leave it to the far future as you say without the need for *glitching*.
The ONLY certainty is uncertainty.
They lie...always
Yellen in your spank bank? Must be a "glitch".
If the FED actually raised rates I'd be stunned.
Glitch huh...like thinking you have to fart and you shit your pants glitch...
Yes!
Except when the un-fed cuts a fart they shit everyone else's pants!
NEVER trust a fart over 30 basis points!
Shartnado
Shitty fart tornado with or w/o sharks...makes for a whole lotta bad mental imagery!
and their GDP estimates will still be off.
i swear, the channel 7 weatherman has more accurate "forecasts" than these fucking bozos.
The FED needs to fire a few people....starting with Yellen and all the Fed Governors...
How about they fire all of us and we have to (darn it!) find a new money supply. Then they can hold all the meetings they want.
Why would the Fed fire anybody? They've got us right where they want us. A century's worth of exquisitely progressive government capture is not to be punished.
Nothing happens in Washington by accident.
While I understand the sentiment, I think you are giving those people way too many points on the competence scale.
Rule #1 for being paranoid: never assume malice where incompetance will suffice.
Rule #2: they are out to get you.
Regards,
Cooter
Who's "Glitch?" James Glitch?
Shmuly Glitch.
it's better that they leak than just keep us waiting
It's all in the plan to talk rates and "hope" that markets comes down without having to raise them. It's all about killing the bubble. The rest would need negative rates for a long time.
I think it's more about letting the market know that they finally are raising rates for reals. There giving as much guidance as possible but the monetary-meth addicted market bulls still aren't fully pricing it in. So now we have this "inadvertent" leak. They waited to damn long. The correction would be blessed messy if they had raised a few 1000 points on the Dow ago and probably 50% of the Housing Bubble 2.0 gains back. The snap back velocity of this correction is gonna be spectacular as the last year and a half of worse than usual speculation implodes.
Glitch my ass, they're testing the market response.
Yes, testing the Google RSS news feeds to collaborate serf reaction.
I don't think it's a test. A test implies the result could change their course of action. They're raising. They have to. If the FED doesn't start to deflate the bubble it will one day pop so violently as to destroy the system itself. Japan can have 25 years of ZIRP, the US can't do that without sever consequences. Reserve currency and the fact that basically anything in the US can be bought by foreign nationals. The FED has spent the better part of 2 years hinting at raising. They obviously should have just done it as the last 2 years have seen the grossest excesses of ZIRP.
I'm of the thought this "recession" won't be as bad as 2008 because we know the 2008 recession never really ended. Deflation should take hold in housing which will give consumers some relief and room for spending. It's not like the burgeoning stock market helped anythin other than luxury RE and exotic car sales. Sure pensions are fucked, but they were fucked anyway and anyone relying on them should a figuredbthat out by now.
Maybe, just maybe, the end of "full retard" FED can get us back to a semi-functional and at least slightly market based economy where price discovery allows US to make and sell things that people want and can afford.
Never going to happen. Watch the ten year. When and if the fed ever starts raising rates the ten year will push down to 1% and beyond. The fed will in fact invert the yield curve if they raise fed funds to 1.26% at the end of 2016 crashing everything again. As far as the bubble goes, the fed is popping it one asset class at a time. I don't think people fully comprehend the concept of digital fiat.
If the fed starts hiking, the bond market will fall apart and ultimately all the pension and similar funds will have such huge write downs that it brings the whole house down. Already, after this BS ramp/recovery, many pension funds have rediculous return assumptions and no where near enough assets (which are crap if they acquired them in the last five years or so). And these underfundings exist at the PEAK of the freaking bond bubble (assuming rates go up from here).
There is no way out. Incidentally, have you ever considered that the boys club that is the fed picked a gal to hold the bag.
<Looks at IMF>
I don't know how long they string this along, I never thought it would go this far, but they are running out of road ...
Regards,
Cooter
“picked a gal to hold the bag”
Exactly right.
Merkel , GM, Yellen….
Only a real cowardly bunch of guys would dump this economy on a woman.
Geez, I guess it really is going to happen this way. All this time, and it was so obvious what the boys would do!
Print!Print!Print!
And now, THEY HAVE TO.....'CAUSE OLD MA YELLEN MADE 'EM DO IT!
'Old Yellen ~ 'Ole Yeller....coincidence, I think not!
The bond market is primed to fall apart anyway. What can they do to stop the realization that the principal on these bonds Will never be paid back and it's becoming a problem just making the interest payments? The longer the FED stays at zero the bigger the problem gets. The FED "becoming" the bond market would be the logical conclusion of such a course and then you get the hyperinflationary implosion. That wouldn't really serve TPTBs interests...
I'll say this if they don't raise in calendar 2015,then you're right and it's time to either retreat to the bunkers or embrace the chaos and enjoy playing Mad Max for the last days of your life. I'm not yet convinced the FED wants to bring about the end of civilization. They may yet do it, but NOT raising Now after all this deliberate telegraphing would mean they REALLY want to.
If the FED doesn't start to deflate the bubble it will one day pop so violently as to destroy the system itself."
Too late. It was too late in 2000. This was all written into the very fundamental nature of our monetary and banking systems.
The cause is rooted in the fact that the marginal value of any of our fiat currencies is negative...ergo its creation creates more debt than value.
The rest is a matter of timing.
Awe Hello No!
-Sharknado III
wtf ? .... a .10% rise in the fed funds rate in 2015 ? .. now that's a recovery.
Cut with the negative vibes, Moriarty
It's a beautiful bridge.
Woof Woof Woof Woof! That's my other dog imitation.
stfu or you will be redacted
Its just another way to extend lie period, since standard talking wont do anymore.
Israel strikes Iran then all projections are meaningless. The entire world economy will crash hard.
Not before Iran takes out the house of Saud
Boss, how do we explain that we were hacked?----
Wait, are we not blaming the cold weather meme still or is still snowing in July?
Glitch. Trial balloon. Same fucking thing. It's the Tribe MO.
"...strongly suggesting rate hikes are coming soon...."
Sure, rate hikes can happen. And then the USD rockets above parity and the SPX tanks.
Yellen is just creating a setting that looks like rates will go up - and they won't - again.
Stiglitz on Globalizationhttp://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sV7bRLtDr3E
Edit: MMT = Modern Monetary Theory
The FED is a cartel of banks who are not constrained by regulation ... they can legally 'leak', so get over it.
Can we please stop calling it the Fed... It is privarely owned and of course... operated. Visit www.revelation12.ca the website where, 'the rubber meets the road'!
False flag event in 3, 2, 1........
That word again, it's getting ominous.
Soon anything and everything unexpected that happens will be blamed on a "glitch".
If I stub my toe, I can just say "There was a 'glitch' in my gait."
If I show up late to work, I can just say "There was a 'glitch' in my circadian rhythm."
If I post something stupid on ZH, I can just say "There was a 'glitch' in my application of sarcasm and irony."
I mispoke about my glitch
The "I don't have time for a glitch infection!" mis-rememberment
"I'm very sorry, sir, but it looks like there is some kind of computer error or glitch because when I go to your most recent statement it says you have absolutely no funds in your demand deposit account."
Year end fed funds at .35% translates to a sammich for me!;->
Those first charts look like a flat-lined, brain-dead patient that has been in a 7-year coma...
Title is missing quotes around "accidentally".
This is sort of like those times people post nude pictures on their facebook page then say it's an accident. Sure it was. You wanted me to see you jerking off and you know it.
One can also assume the Fed will be using a negative deflator value with GDP projections above 2%....just sayin' cuz they negative numbers so far this year.
Their 10 year projection is just as funny as all the rest. I project we will see a ten year below 1%
Was the glitch that they meant to post it in a private Google Hangout instead of on their website?
Glitchez Bitchez!
Witchez Glitchez Bitchez!
The Fed. does NOTHING by "accident".
They're just blobbing the markets for the continued easing.
Notice the "Key Variables" STOP VARYING for eternity. They are now constants. This is like making a graph that shows that someone is plummeting off a roof at the same velocity they were at when they jumped for the entire duration of their fall.
Referring to figure 1 above, usually when I see a straight line on the end of a graph, it means the patient has gone into cardiac arrest.
Do they make Depends, Fed edition, maxis, overnight, to handle even their biggest leaks?
Where is Team Depends when you need him?
The Fed has it great. If they are right or things get better, they take credit. If the economy tanks, it was the private sector. Inflation is like the weather...no one knows when it is coming...so how could they?
In truth I believe they must see the impossibility of the dollar surviving. I just wonder how all of this fits into a plan for the softest landing....or maybe they really are clueless (most politicians seem to be, Senator Gregg was the only one who predicted a huge crash...he said back in 2008 it would be.....2015).
We wait for time to prove the truth. The rest is idle speculation....more tea leves please.
Unicorn entrails.
Hah, "tea leves", I see what you did there! It didn't work for the British either.
'
'
'
The Fed released 'information'?
Not to any of 'us', eh?
•?•
V-V
This was no accident. Just the Fed keeping the fraud going. Risk off; Party on!!!!
There is no skill required. You don't need to "value" assets to make a good stock pick. You don't have to understand markets or potential. It is no longer "what you know" it is all about "who you know" and if you ain't in the club you don't know shit.
Fuck'en fake pricks..
What the shit is an "interest rate"!? Is this some archaic term like "talley stick"?
Here's some more BS too: Rate won't even get to 3.5 for 5 years! Kill the retirees off!
Put Neidermeyer {Hilsenrat] on it. He's a sneaky little shit, just like you, right?
All we need to do is abort a few million more Black babies, harvest the organs, and pour the profits into T-bills.
yah, its the crunchy ones we like- next lofo demonrats to the mills
Should make a lot of Congressman really happy.
Too late.
The commodities markets - especially gold - are SCREAMING that we're entering a long period of economic collapse and deflation.
For a 10-20 year period of default, debt repudiation, contract abrogation, lawyers etc. ... what you want is CASH - and nothing else.
The fed is so omniscient they can predict markets years in advance.
0 credibility!
I can't wait to see Durable Goods & Pending Home Sales before the Fed. meeting next week.
They should just rename Consumer Confidence to Consumer Bullshit Hopium Index. CBHI
Hillary Clinton never ‘accidentally’ sent anything from her private servers. I'll be forced to believe Hillary.
da b|tch in prison 2016 - bumper sticker - $19.95
"I wont cum in your mouth I promise"
Another "we're gonna stop printing....... but not really" fake out.
I bet Janet bets her buddies how much she can bump the market just by faking this and that or myabe for a dollar those those Duke boys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjkdynBFHuQ
Somebody "accidentally leaked" the "just the tip" memo
Trial balloons, monthly, weekly, daily, by the hour; not in my life.
"Open Mouth Operations" indeed.
I went out drinking with Janet Yellen and woke up with itches, stitches, glitches and BITCHES!
Then I had to "leak".
I think the Fed GDP projections come out of a fairy tale story where everyone lives happily ever after. I have never seen such a highly paid group of learning disabled people in my life.
The FED is going to raise rates but we will find out sometime later that certain banks were still getting the "old" rate after the hikes.
the new Global Scapegoat: a Bitch named Glitch!
the Bots made me do it!
Appears to me as though children are seriously in charge of all facets of American politics and financial systems. The adults are all gone now so they're just making it up.
This will not end well.
I will bet y'all two tootsie rolls and a lollipop (that's all I'm worth) that the Feds raise rates this September. Think about it - they have floated the "raise-interest-rates" balloon for over a year now. A year ago the stock market sold off, but the market doesn't sell off anymore on the same news. We, the sheeple, have been adequately desensitized, so it's time to raise rates.
THERE EXIST A POSSIBILITY OF A RISE THIS WEDNESDAY
DON'T BELIEVE BULSHIT ABOUT ACCIDENTAL LEAKS LIKE THAT.
This is not an accident - like it is not an accident China is unloading USTs.
FOMC MUST RISE because otherwise they risk FX catastrophy and total bond market collapse.
It is not Japan, where all JGBs can be purchased outright with a printer.
This is US with a huge current account deficit.
So - knowing they MAY rise this week - they can warn the market only with a leak like that.
This looks like a convoluted warning to market participants about a possibility of a rate rise 3 business days later.
The real risk is that a Fed interest rate rise will cause the dollar to rise even further in the international currency market, thereby causing a capital flight from the rest of the world and destrucion of all those other economies. Caveat emptor !
Several observers have pointed out that if and when the Fed tries to raise short-term rates they will encounter more complications than on other occasions. With enormous amounts in excess reserves on deposit, the banks have the ability to dodge any rate-lifting measures that the Fed may attempt. One idea is that the Fed will increase the interest (gift) it pays to commercial banks on these reserves, thereby disincentivising new commercial bank lending. This is one more example of Fed coddling the commercial banks at taxpayer expense. The Fed may find itself unable to make its customery payment of its profits to the Treasury, and will need an appropriation. Hints of this possibility are contained in proposals to reduce the dividends the Fed pays to its "stockholders," or to demand further "capital" from them.
Equities about to make 6 month lows will require a lot more open mouth committee type dovish talk:
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart