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There Goes The Housing "Recovery" Again: New Home Sales Plunge Most Since 2014

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite exuberant existing home sales, new home sales crosses back below the 500k Maginot Line to 482k SAAR - the lowest since Nov 2014.

 

Once again, NARis back to its old tricks. Previous data was revised dramatically lower as June data missed expectations by the most in a year.

The West region saw new home sales collapse 17%.

 

Perhaps the slide in single-family home starts means something after all?

 

But the most unsustainable chart of all is the one showing the ever gaping divergence between actual volumes for houses and artificially high prices. It appears CYNK is not only a feature of the stock market, but the housing market as well.

 

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Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:10 | 6348885 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

I swear they must be using Common Core Math to derive these numbers.  One day all is well, the next, not so much.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:13 | 6348901 madcows
madcows's picture

I tried to help my kids with their common core math and couldn't for the life of me decifer that crap. 

I've passed all the engineering level math classes, and couldn't figure out how the fuck they do fractions with dots.  Or why half the algebra problems were unbalanced/non-answerable.  Litterally.  Half the fucking x=y equations had no solution.  Fucking retarded.  What, are they trying to teach kids that half their formulas will be wrong?  Fucking insane.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:17 | 6348919 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I saw how they teach division the other day. So stupid. Like there needed to be another way. It wasn't that hard.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:17 | 6348920 L Bean
L Bean's picture

They're UNTEACHING math skills, imho. Instead of 2 + 2 = 4, it's

1+1+1+1-1-1-1-1+1+1+1+1=1+1+1+1

or whatever.

They're teaching to a new generation of (mostly learning disabled)kids, and this is what is considered helpful. 

We're fucking doomed.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:58 | 6349015 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Now when one runs out of fingers and toes they have to give up on math.  Of course the boys have a single digit advantage so there will be many lawsuits over math by "members."

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:59 | 6349042 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

+ 1000  Too funny

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:25 | 6348945 EhKnowKneeMass
EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Well, I don't think you axing the rite question to understand common core. I also think that you didn't have no patience to solve the problem correctly.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:41 | 6348995 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

The problem is solved correctly only if effort is used.  Accurate results are meaningless.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:49 | 6349016 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Hey screw you ZH'ers, my awesome real estate agent told me there is never been a better time to buy. Interest rates are about to go up.  So there. I don't listen to internet tards, I listen to professionals who have been at this 20+ years.  I'm going looking at some sweet houses today. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:13 | 6349324 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

Well.  MY awesome real estate agent just told me there has never been a better time to sell.  Interest rates are about to go up.  I listen to my professional who got their license after two weeks of classes and fronting a lot of money.  They're totally legit. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 13:07 | 6349568 VladLenin
VladLenin's picture

My house is for sale... come on by. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:17 | 6349330 nibsy
nibsy's picture

What they're doing is creating a dynamic where a student has to know who has the 'correct' answers.

 

Being intoduced to processes that enable a student to find an answer on their own is not the the goal. They have to be conditioned to believe there is a proper source that has the 'correct' answer.

 

I find common standards or standardized testing insidious for that reason.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:17 | 6348921 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The realtors around here are going broke even with the second vacation home market flooded with foreclosures and marked down prices.

And hardly anybody on the roads or in town these days.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:22 | 6348938 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

It's a great day to punch a realtor in the face.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:33 | 6348970 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I'd rather spank the hottie one here cause she's got some firm round booty.

Come to papa baby!!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 11:07 | 6349077 Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

Lets beat the weatherman, because of him the weather is discouraging the buyers. ;)

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:09 | 6349305 clade7
clade7's picture

I'd rather tongue punch your avatars fart box there Bung! 

I can always punch any old pisscomplected realtor in their cocksukker at Starbucks...rarely does a fellow see such a sweet ass as yours!  Its the simple things in Life that make it worth living...great merciful damn is that one sweet ass or what!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:32 | 6349392 Blano
Blano's picture

+1000 for resurrecting an old classic. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:15 | 6349327 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

Why not punch two? 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:33 | 6348975 commishbob
commishbob's picture

Where is "around here," Headbanger?

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:19 | 6348928 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

For real!  It's what I'm wondering. Why are the numbers reported at a high one month while NAR crows &  then at an extreme drop the next month with NAR silent?  There is no way to have any confidence in the numbers, high or low.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:10 | 6348887 madcows
madcows's picture

I've already got one overpriced house.  I don't need another.  Besides, it cost more to maintain the frigging thing than to actually pay the principle.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:15 | 6348914 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

No shit.

New furnace, ac and water heater this year for me.  

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:20 | 6348929 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

Us too.  And a new bathroom fan.  

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:23 | 6348939 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Think of all the guns, ammo and shiny you could have bought.

Makes me cry.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:25 | 6348943 pods
pods's picture

Damn. Did you at least get to use some Astroglide?

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:31 | 6348965 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

I did the water heater myself but got raped by the HVAC man.

Looking forward to the $200 Duke Energy rebate for that 14 SEER AC unit /s

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:31 | 6348963 madcows
madcows's picture

Front door rot repair - $2400

Back deck repair - $5000

New roof and sky lights.... haven't got the estimate yet.

But, no worries.  The $10 a year i get in interest from the bank oughtta cover it.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:37 | 6348979 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

My benevolent employer gave me a 2% raise last week.

That additional money per week wont even fill the fucking tank on my thirsty 4.2 liter S4.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 11:03 | 6349061 RobD
RobD's picture

Didn't even get a "cost of living" raise this year. Did a spread sheet on my net take home pay for the past 11 years, only in one year did my net increase enough to match or better the bogus .gov inflation rate and that was the year I had to stop my 401k contributions to make ends meet. Slowly falling farther behind though we did sell our house a couple of months ago and move closer to work so I'm debt free and may actually be able to save a few bucks.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:38 | 6348978 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

but for the aggravation, you save 5-7% of your money and you can control who comes in.

Edit: enjoy it anyway, if they get their way, youll be living in a stack and pack unit w no yard or privacy and a huge public area for all the dogs.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:10 | 6348888 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More positive recovery news!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:11 | 6348892 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

With record low interest rates, housing is plunging.  Can't wait for Yellen to raise interest rates to demonstrate to the world the strength of the US recovery.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:11 | 6348893 Ignorance is bliss.
Ignorance is bliss.'s picture

Where is TRAV777?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:17 | 6348922 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

banned

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:12 | 6348897 JLO
JLO's picture

Just seen five go up in my neighboorhood but only 1 buyer...Think they are over optimistic?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 13:01 | 6349533 PTR
PTR's picture

Dunno.  In Chicago, the upper 10% of the income scale are still buying.  Homes that are sensibly priced are getting offers inside of a few weeks (still.)

 

Thank goodness I snagged a short sale back in '11.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:12 | 6348899 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

All over the world, RENTIERism is the name of the game.

The era of individual ownership is drawing to a close (in their minds) and time for all of us to go collectivist.

Common Core.

Common Good.

War is Peace.

Freedom is Slavery.

Us us us us us us us & them them them them......

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:44 | 6349452 monad
monad's picture

Everything burns.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:14 | 6348906 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

The Chinese buyer is probably gone.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:16 | 6348907 Kina
Kina's picture

So what are TPTB going to do now that it is even impossible for them to hide the continuous recession of the USA/Globe.

Real unemployment, down turn in business, and the establishment of the new normal at recession levels, and being employed means have a three part time jobs.

What are they going to try next having pumped banks full, not that they ever tried to aid the general public?

Whats the next step.  A massive bail-in from anybody who has savings? Do they simply take everybody's money by decree?

 

Helicopters they only thing not tried. They would have been better letting the banks fail, and dropping cash by chopper for the people to spend.

 

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 11:01 | 6349057 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

How about putting money dispensers on every corner. When Joe Sixpack wants to buy something,he just types in the amount and out spits piles of $100 bills. Should help consumption.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:14 | 6348909 EhKnowKneeMass
EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Forget new home sales, how is new tent sales going? Can we get an update on that?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:16 | 6348917 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Watched Diane Olick on CNBC giving her spin and she looked in shock. I had the sound off and she looked like she had just eaten a shit sandwich.....ponzi pumping pricks.......

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:39 | 6348930 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

I do the same thing. You turn off the volume to the endless stream of experts and talking heads and just watch their eyes and body language. It's hilarious the different story you get if you turned the vol on.

Cramer could not even look the camera in the eye this morning and looked like he would rather crawl under the desk fetal, but I am sure he was probably talking about AMZN buy buy buy, and umteen reasons why you should pay 600 bucks for a stock that makes a measly 92mil for the first time ever. Kernan just kept staring of into space wishing he had a stiff drink.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 13:01 | 6349536 PTR
PTR's picture

Was that sandwich with or without the benefit of bread?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:21 | 6348935 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Housing numbers suck! good excuse to pound miners and metals...half assed backward fucken system we have here people half ass backwards.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:25 | 6348947 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wouldn't have anything to do with prices being at all time highs.

Go on Janet, raise rates to historical normal values and let us test the narrative.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:29 | 6348958 JailBanksters
JailBanksters's picture

Maybe the Club FED should do a Crowdfunding for to save the Housing Bubble

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:30 | 6348959 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Am I in bad dream ??? Didn't we just read two days ago , housing was now going great ????

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:13 | 6349323 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

That was existing home sales (to be revised sharply downward next month).

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 13:54 | 6349802 LauraB
LauraB's picture

I don't believe that existing home sales are up - at least not in my area.  Most houses around here have been on the market for YEARS even though they will come up now and then as "new listings".  Just look back over the history and you'll see how long they've really been on the market.  

We sold our house in 2006 and have been renting ever since.  I told my husband the bubble was going to burst so we should sell and buy a new home in a year or two.  Here we are 9 years later still renting.  My kids were 2 and 4 when we sold.  Now they are 11 and 13.  I've kept my eye on the market, but haven't been able to stomach paying what they want for a house.  We are renting a big house in a nice neighborhood in a good school district with low rent for the area/size of home.  Our landlord hasn't raised the rent the whole time we've been here.  Therefore, we have no real reason to move unless we find a great house at a great price.

We finally went out to look at homes about two months ago because prices seemed to be coming down a bit. We found one we liked and our realtor told us that  it was priced right at $850K and would probably sell for $775-825K.  I did my own market analysis of all the sales in past 3 months in the area and found the house should sell for $625-675K.  There had been only 8 sales in the area between March-May and a few early June closings, which should have been the peak selling season with people buying to move in over summer before school starts.  5 of the 8 sales were foreclosures or short sales. The realtor said I shouldn't count those in determining price.  I said when foreclosures and short sales make up more than half the sales, they are the market and most definitely should be considered in determining price.  Time to find a new realtor.  

Anyway - here we are two months later and that house is still on the market despite lowering its price, having a couple open houses, and relisting itself as "new".  We went to see numerous houses and that was actually one of the few really nice ones.  You would think it would have sold if it was priced riight.  I also looked at all the houses around it that were pending or currently on the market.  The ones going under contract were listing at or below the $/sq.ft. of the actual sales - i.e. the foreclosures.  The ones asking in the same range as the one we liked are all still sitting.  On a positive note, I've gotten several listings from Redfin over the past few days that are listing in the $600's and are in a better school district.  Just a few months ago these houses would have listed in the $700s and $800s (in fact there are several that are still sitting on the market in that price range since the early spring).  I keep hoping to be able to buy a house at a reasonble price.  Can't wait for the bubble to burst!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 14:14 | 6349921 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

Prices are up, not sales.   There is a big difference. 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:32 | 6348967 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

Drought in west making impact?

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:50 | 6349017 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

This is a lagging indicator that reflects low inventory. Permits are forward looking and way up.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 10:55 | 6349036 chosen
chosen's picture

The Chinese are pulling out of the US housing market, having throughly screwed it.

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 11:00 | 6349047 tok1
tok1's picture

this is starting to feel like a debarcle..  They massively increase the money supply over 6 years instead of letting the economy restructure (AKA Volker years when he drove rates higher squeesed all the unprofitable deabt out of the economy)

Which was painful but made way for more solid growth and opportunity as prices were low early 1990;s after property drop,

 

Its pretty clear they would have been better letting all the bad debts clear in 2008 when they had the chance..(Goldman/Morgan Stnaly0 ect go under ie who ever made the mistakes.

 

Now its all been socialised on the Gov via bailouts / TARP ect.. and the debt load from private and Govt is killing the economy.

The reality is the only real soution is again raise rates squeese the bad debts out the them fail and the Govt debt has to be restructured.  

 

Then after with the reduced debt load the economy can recover. but Yellen looks weak too scared to act to do anything. 

more QE / lower rates (which will lead to more debt being taken on) and higher asset prices.

 

What a debarcle..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 11:00 | 6349052 starman
starman's picture

RECESSION 3...2...1........

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:21 | 6349349 Obamamerica
Obamamerica's picture

We can avoid a recession easily. If Obama never leaves office, the media will never declare the economy is getting bad

 

Problem solved!

 

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:20 | 6349343 Obamamerica
Obamamerica's picture

Need more QE to pour into big Wall Street firms to buy up all housing under median price. This will boost housing prices further and create more renters

 

Brilliant!

 

I'm running for the next Fed President!

Fri, 07/24/2015 - 12:39 | 6349427 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Dear Tyler(s),

Saying something is the worst since last year is the same as saying it is better this year than last.

Now back to the fearmongering.

 

 

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