Has The US Finished The Trap Assad Had Begun To Set For Turkey?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Gefira

Has the US finished the trap Assad had begun to set for Turkey?

The US Syrian policy forces Ankara to walk a fine line between ISIS, Assad’s regime, Kurds, the US and its own interest. We will not rule out that Erdo?an could declare a state of emergency and postpone new elections. Whatever the result of the power struggle in Ankara may be, Turkey’s military will not accept the YPG and PKK armed to the teeth by the US.

From the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Turkey and the US supported the insurgency against Assad. Turkey formed a safe haven and provided weapons to groups that later evolved into ISIS.  The US started to organize “Friends of Syria” conferences to support the insurgency in Syria. At these conferences, not only Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lectured Putin on Middle East policy, but money was also collected for the Jihadists now known as ISIS.

Security analysts who are not blinded by US and European propaganda already noticed that the Kurds were a hurdle in the chosen strategy. The Kurds did not side with the FSA and the “Friends of Syria” show. They engaged in deadly clashes with the US-Turkey backed Jihadists. Kurdish leaders were already slaughtered by the FSA in 2012. The so called “Friends of Syria” conference in Cairo ended in a brawl between Kurds and Jihadists.

During this period, the relation between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq, improved dramatically. Former BP CEO Tony Hayward visited Erbil and advised the KRG  to build a direct oil pipeline to Turkey, bypassing Iraq’s pipes, enabling the Kurds to export Kurdish oil directly via Turkish port of Ceyhan. The good business relation between Barzani, the prime minister of the KRG  and Erdo?an’s government limited the freedom for the PKK to operate from Northern Iraq.

Under Assad, the PKK had no opportunity to operate from Syria. In 1998, Turkey threatened to invade Syria as a result of the PKK’s staged attacks from Kurdish Syrian areas. Since then, Damascus reined in the Kurds and stopped the PKK operating from Syria, preventing further escalation between Ankara and Damascus.

Assad had (and still has) little power to retaliate against the US-Turkey support for the Jihadist insurgents against his regime. Assad understood that the Kurds in Syria could spoil the fragile Kurdish peace process in Turkey. In 2012 he granted the Kurds in Syria autonomy to retaliate against Turkey. Back then he could not foresee how great this move was, thanks to the rogue and unreliable US policy in the Middle East. 

In 2013 and 2014 Assad’s policy seemed to have failed as ISIS succeeded in dispelling the Kurds from cities like Kobane. ISIS getting the upper-hand in the Syrian Kurdish region worried Western Nations, but not Turkey. The supply lines of ISIS started in Turkey and without support from Turkey, the Jihadists could not be as successful as they are now in Syria and Iraq. Not only do the Turkey’s Security services, MIT have contact with the ISIS’ leaders, ISIS itself has support in Turkey’s society and from some Syrians in Turkey, the organisation is more rooted in Turkey than many want to believe.

For Ankara, the FSA and later ISIS did the dirty work in the Syrian Kurdish territory. Even Barzani and Iraqi’s KRG feel no inclination to support their Kurdish brothers in Syria and saw the new Syrian Kurdish autonomy as a threat for its own stability. From Turkey’s perspective things were not as bad as they seemed for outsiders. The Syrian Kurds were eliminated while Ankara could blame ISIS while providing lip service to the plight of the Syrian Kurds.

However, America’s flip-flop policy turns the trap Assad set for Ankara into a disaster in the making for Turkey. In 2014 the US Syrian policy went from an air support for the Jihadists to bombing the Jihadists, formerly organised in the “Friends of Syria” conferences.

From the beginning it was clear that Turkey has no interest in supporting the Syrian Kurds in their fight against ISIS. The US understood Assad’s trap and started to support the Kurdish Syrian Fighters in Kobane. With active military support from the US the YPG (military wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party) managed to restore Kurdish dominance in a small strategic area bordering Turkey. A situation of which Ankara has said many times to be intolerable for Turkey.

The US and its Western allies force Ankara into action against ISIS. A very dangerous move that could cause the Syrian war to cross the border, into Turkey. We regard the Reyhanli bombing in 2013 (52 casualties) as a warning issued by ISIS for Erdo?an. As ISIS stages daily suicide bombings in Baghdad, there is no reason they will spare Turkey. Erdo?an has the choice to engage in battle its former ally, the Jihadists or accepting the US arming the Syrian Kurdish fighters, YPG and indirect the KKP finishing Assad’s trap for Ankara.

We recognize 3 major trends.

  1. US arming Syrian Kurds will agonize Ankara and Erbil, undermining the fragile Kurdish-Turkish peace process, many of the weapons will end up in the hands of the PKK.
  2. ISIS will not only engage the YPG in Syria but also the PKK in Turkey bringing the Syrian civil war into the borders of Turkey.
  3. ISIS will retaliate against Ankara now that Turkey is actively confronting the Jihadists.
  4. The AKP ruling elite do not want a coalition government, the AKP will use the current chaos to stay in power.

The US Syrian policy forces Ankara to walk a fine line between ISIS, Assad’s regime, the US and its own interest. We expect the options for  Erdo?an to be limited. The inevitable increase in violence could increase the popular support for the AKP. We will not rule out that Erdo?an could declare a state of emergency and postpone the elections. As the Western pro democratic powers accept Sisi in Egypt and Morsi at death row, there is no moral argument for the AKP to follow the same path Egypt did.  New elections without the AKP getting a Majority will result in more chaos and violence. Whatever the result of the power struggle in Ankara may be, Turkey’s military will not accept the YPG and PKK armed to the teeth by the US. The current acceptance of US air force operating from Turkey’s soil should be understood as the result of US blackmail and power play, a clear humiliation of Ankara, widening the gap between Ankara and Washington.

 

Turkey losing patience with Syria. Source BBC 4 October 1998
The Turkish President, Suleiman Demirel, has repeated his warning that time is running out for Syria to stop supporting the Kurdish rebel movement, the PKK 

Tony Hayward Loads Trucks With Kurdish Oil Awaiting Pipe. Source Bloomberg 30 July 2012
Tony Hayward, the former chief executive officer at BP Plc, is now loading a fleet of as many as 500 trucks a day while he waits for a new pipeline to carry oil from his fields in northern Iraq.
Hayward has pushed the semi-autonomous Kurds to finish building a link to neighboring Turkey so he can find buyers outside the local market. 

Ex-BP CEO Gets His Life Back as Kurdish Pipeline Opens. Source Bloomberg 22 May 2014
The conduit, built by the Kurdistan Regional Government, or KRG, runs about 400 kilometers (250 miles) from Khurmala, southwest of Erbil, to the Turkish border, where it connects with an existing link to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Oil that sells for about $70 a barrel domestically could fetch $100 or so in world markets.Source New York Times 11 May 2013

Syrian opposition rifts give world excuse not to act. Source Al Arabiya News 4 July 2012
A brawl at a meeting of the Syrian opposition this week in Cairo put on display the divisions among those struggling to oust President Bashar al-Assad and provides an excuse for world powers who have been wary of intervention to sit on their hands.

Assad hands control of Syria’s Kurdish areas to PKK, sparking outrage in Turkey Source Mc Clatchy DC 26 July 2012
President Bashar Assad, facing a growing rebel presence in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and its commercial hub, has turned control of parts of northern Syria over to militant Kurds who Turkey has long branded as terrorists, prompting concern that Istanbul might see the development as a reason to send troops across its border with Syria.

Car Bombings Kill Dozens in Center of Turkish Town Near the Syrian Border Source May 11 2013 New York Times
In blaming Mr. Assad’s government, Turkish officials seemed anxious to stave off any possible backlash against thousands of Syrian refugees in Reyhanli or its allies in the Syrian opposition for the bombing. The town is in a region of southern Turkey where some Turks have bristled at their government’s willingness to make Turkey a party to the war, putting it at risk.After the bombings on Saturday, angry residents smashed the windows of cars from Syria, and a Turkish newspaper reported that protests against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan later erupted in Reyhanli’s streets.

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HonkyShogun's picture
HonkyShogun (not verified) Jul 25, 2015 9:48 AM

Uncle Hymie sure wants that Syrian pipeline route, doesn't he?

Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

Game of Thrones quote:  "Actually, I rather enjoy him. But he would see this country burn if he could be king of the ashes."

weburke's picture

assads alawite group are not actually muslim. but cloak their trinity/mary views to survive the centuries. 

the kill assad theater peice is actually a ruse. 

Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

A ruse?  How so, and to what end?  not disagreeing, just curious

kchrisc's picture

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area

I would bet that this gets amended to include a little strip of stolen land on the eastern Mediterranean.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

Ranger4564's picture

And the NATO ruse is to keep the Europeans entangled in NATO so they cannot free themselves from the EU / NATO trap, and join the BRICS in a redefined world hegemony? Right?

Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

 

 

Now they're stretching the North Atlantic waaaaaay over to Ukraine, and all this time I thought the Pacific was the biggest.

 

Paveway IV's picture

b nailed it on Moon of Alabama:

Turkey Lauches War On Islamic State's Worst Enemies - The Kurds

Erdogan's gone full-retard. Whatever manner of clownfuckery the U.S. had planned for Syria has partially derailed. The conquest of Syria and death of Assad is still a U.S. priority, but Erdogan just kicked the U.S. to the side of the road before the U.S. could kick Turkey to the side of the road. 

This is where it starts to get very interesting, like inadvertently stumbling into WW III interesting. 

Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

LOL--q:B   gotta love ol' Archer.

sun tzu's picture

It's obviously an attack on Russia. Europe is dependent on Russian oil & NG. NATO wants to source Europe's energy needs from the ME. The Russians see this and are now building pipelines to India and China. 

Ranger4564's picture

I think it's an entanglement of Europe so they can't be free of US imperialism.

kliguy38's picture

"out of order comes chaos"  or turn the whole world into one big steaming pile of shit and maybe you will find  a kernel of corn.

lolmao500's picture

More like Out of chaos comes order.

F0ster's picture

Organized chaos by the U.S.

Handful of Dust's picture

Wise Turks will alreayd be getting their assets out of Turkey before it turns to another Iraq/Syria dungheap.

 

[I'm not sure if 'dungheap' is one word or two]

Consuelo's picture

Dunno...   I'm thinking more like explosive diarrhea...

 

 

 

 

kchrisc's picture

Sounds like an ancient Talmud proverb.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

Modern day version: "Never waste a crisis."

stant's picture

What does the book of John say about Damascus ?

cowdiddly's picture

something about it will lie in ruins. Check

J Jason Djfmam's picture

Wonderful for knives, not so good for guns.

Tarzan's picture

It was Isaiah, a prophecy many have pointed to as unfulfilled, now happening before our eyes....

Isaiah 17:1
A prophecy against Damascus: "See, Damascus will no longer be a city but will become a heap of ruins.

NuTroll's picture

That prophecy occurs during the battle of Armageddon. Not from some random bombing. (assuming you don't interpret it as past already).

(Isa 17:3 [KJV])
The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the LORD of hosts.

If anything this verse indicates that it might soon become the property of someone else, before the events in verse 1 occur.
As long as you're going to bring up prophecy.

Freddie's picture

The Evangelicals are conned by all that NeoCon Bibi BS. Bibi is gonna get Jonathan Pollard sprung.   Jesus did not like his own people when he overthrew the tables of the money changers.  A bit like Bobby Fishcher did not like his own people.

I respect Assad and especially respect the Syrian people.  The same thing goes for the NovoRussians in Eastern Ukraine fighting dual shit-i-zens Porky, Yatz, Soros, Nudelman and genocide-ist McCain. 

I respect all these people fighting for their land and people against invading and ZATO scum.  I have little respect for Americans and Europeans.

Volkodav's picture

correction..those of temple were not his people

but of something else

Dublinmick's picture

And Shadrach will beget Abednego who will in turn sire Constantine who wrote the British bible and thought the world was flat.

Republi-Ken's picture

HEY GEFIRA!

YOU FORGOT THE MOST IMPORANT THING--

OBAMA AND CLINTON

NEGOTIATED LARGEST CHEM WEAPON STOCK

IN THE MIDDLE EAST DESTROYED.

SYRIA CHEM WEAPONS 100% GONE.

ISEEIT's picture

Even *if* what you shit is true..

Soooo much more civil without 'chemical' weapons huh?

Dumbass.

Neochrome's picture

You mean the one that Putin negotiated?

Savyindallas's picture

dumbest statement of the day. Surely you did not mean this. You were being sarcastic -right? Please clarify your statement about Clinton and Obama and give credit to Putin  so I can give you an up arrow. 

And also clarify your statement that Syria is chemical weapons free. Surely you know that the CIA/Mossad have supplied ISIS/Al Quada with tons of chemical weapons. I'm sure you knew that, but others have somehow missed your obvious sarcasm. 

Freddie's picture

I would vote for Assad as President over everyone except maybe Trump, Scott Walker or Rick Santorum. The joke is the USA does not have real elections.

The rest are such shit it is not even funny - Clintons, Bernie Sanders, Rubio, Jebster, Rand Paul should be his dad but he is not, Galdman Sachs Cruz and the rest.

Duc888's picture

 

 

" State Hillary Clinton lectured Putin on Middle East policy, but money was also collected for the Jihadists now known as ISIS."

 

Hillary Clinton, ISIS supporter.  I like the sound of that.  She can brag about that while she gets paid $250K for speeches.

f16hoser's picture

Insane McCain actually met with ISIS Leders. Weird...

Duc888's picture

 

 

"Turkey formed a safe haven and provided weapons to groups that later evolved into ISIS. "

 

Fuck Turkey.  We obviously need to drone the fuck outta that country and pronto.

 

J Jason Djfmam's picture

Might as well hit everything east of UK and west of Japan.

Solve alot of problems.

Thirtyseven's picture

Biggest problem in Kazakhstan is transport.

Gotta export all that Potassium. What exactly have they done to offend you?

chunga's picture

Transport problem confirmed by Borat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWIRa9AH5hU

When will these countries learn the US fucks everybody's shit up all the time? I'm sure they do know it, it just doesn't matter.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Well said indeed Chunga...

As PCR states it in this read most succinctly and to the point -it only changes when the Russians and Chinese get fed up enough to say let's call it a day!

I think the U.S. showing up in that big "front page" headline in the MSM with it's bombers now in Incirlik earlier this week that Russia is about ready to turn Germany's fortunes in it's orbit!  We are wondering why Russia fucked over Greece with their entreaties for $10 billion to print some "Drachma" Now we know the reason "why"!!!

BRICS by BRICS...

chunga's picture

I'm not sure I follow. Are you thinking the cost/benefit for the Germans staying as US toadies is getting close to not worth it? Especially if it's true that Putin didn't cough up the 10B request (that they deny ever happened) as a goodwill gesture to the Germans?

All the countries openly hostile to US bullshit are already painted as dangerous rogues. Can the US hasbara spin practically the whole world as democracy hating rogues? They can probably try but it's getting to be incredible already for anybody with half a brain.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

All the countries openly hostile to US bullshit are already painted as dangerous rogues. Can the US hasbara spin practically the whole world as democracy hating rogues? They can probably try but it's getting to be incredible already for anybody with half a brain.

"."

Russia didn't want to back away from Greece but they had no choice with the oil and gas arrangement that was terminated in Bulgaria that shifted between Turkey and Greece shortly thereafter.  Germany is the centerpiece that is losing it's time, patience and economy with the EU/NATO membership and they are about ready to throw in the towel regardless of the bribes and threats that have come there way since 1945.  A new chapter in European history begins! 

Look at what the French just did breaking ranks with their own foreign mimistry over Crimea?

If the German government should throw out Merkel and her party for pressing the agenda and escalation on Ukraine, along with the potential threat of losing the U.S. military and intelligence aparatus inside it's borders anything can happen and probably will with an "Operation Gladio/9/11" moment.  Sell a war in Eastern Europe to the German people? NOW?!!!  Think Germany is the more significant arrangement to the Russians and Greece will just have to wait it's turn...

Trouble is you can only play the fear rhetoric for so long until all the players in the room have their epiphany and call you for what you are.

 A deranged paranoid raving lunatic that will do anything to maintain it's control over you and everyone else with only cards left in the "deck" to play.

 

rwe2late's picture

 Tsipras was resolutely committed

as a willing pawn of the TROIKA and NATO.

 

He would never have been a "partner" to Russia, much less a reliable one.

GREXIT was never a serious real option to Tsipras.

The $10 billion would have been wasted by Russia,

grabbed by the banksters, and changed nothing in Greece.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"The $10 billion would have been wasted by Russia,

grabbed by the banksters, and changed nothing in Greece."...

And the road to recovery they are on with the Troika will always be the better alternative to the "road less travelled"???... 

So you're somehow suggesting that energy will always be a better bargain and cheaper for the Greeks without a Greek/Turkish pipeline running through it to Eastern Europe with all the jobs that would come with it as opposed to handing over all there islands with oil and natural gas underneath it in a fire sale to pay off their perpetual debt oblligations to the robber barrons that can never and will never be repaid?

Yes I'm sure you're right staying the course is the much better long term decision!!!


rwe2late's picture

huh?

I neither wrote nor suggested what you fantasize I believe.

Tsiptras was (is) a TROIKA shill.

Tsipras never wanted a deal with Russia.

He never wanted or intended a GREXIT.

He never wanted or intended to quit NATO.

That's why there was no deal with Russia.

That's why any money Russia gave Tsipras would have been wasted.

 

 

Freddie's picture

Someone on ZH posted this link. Putin was not going to bail out the Greek communist.

http://redefininggod.com/2015/07/globalist-agenda-watch-2015-update-63-t...

The guy who Putin would back is a Greek Orthodox called the Nigel Farage of Greece and he is the defense minister. Kammenos.  The pivot to Russia supposedly will happen but the Orthodox church is in the background.  They do not like the communists. The Russians did not want Tspiras to do the switch and get credit.

The bad news from this blog, if we are to believe it, is the Orthodox Church and put are just more of the same NWO.  The question is what did the Russian Orthodox Church do to stop the dual shit-i-zens Red Shield Bolshevik from murdering 25 million Christians post 1917?  Anyone who does not believe that happened can read Alexander Solzinetzin's writings.  He was a devout Christian and believed that Putin might be the real deal before he died. 

Is the Russian Orthodox Church and Putin the good guys or more of the NWO Black Hand Illuminitists?

Sadly, I don't think there are any good guys.  Volkodav or other Russians or experts here might be able to tell us more.

 

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Freddie

Thanks for the insight you provide here, a very interesting read indeed. 

But I still think Putin is doing his best to deal with the threat at his own border(s) which he certainly didn't ask for and has to deal with first before taking on any new partners that are the furthest away per the "Maidan Revolution" and MH-17 post Sochi Winter Games!... 

As I said before. Germany and Russia share a very important history that has been mangled for far too long by the Anglo-American cabal starting with the "charge of the light brigades" and then the Revolution that was insitgated in 1917 by "the usual suspects" and he has to deal with the threat that is geopolitically the most important and dangerous to his nation's long term health just as it was in 1940!

Duc888's picture

 

 

I'd prefer we just mind our own business.  We have more than enough issues to deal with here domestically.

Savyindallas's picture

The war is already going on here. Jade Helm 15? Getting ready for the soon to be Hot war in America. One side -the Bankster faction- has Caitlin Jenner and the transgenders, sodomites, radical feminists. They can't fight worth a dam and can't shoot a gun (bunch of sissies) so they will have to rely on privatized, high paid contractors like Blackwater and mercenaries  -the other side has the rednecks, patriots and middle class Christians  and Tea party types. The problem they have is too many stupid Christian Zionists Israeli-bankster lovers who have not yet pulled their heads out nof their asses to see how they have been so blatantly fooled and manipulated by the other side. The war for America will be quite chaotic and messy.