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Jim Grant: Financial Prices Should Be Discovered, Not Administered

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by James Grant, originally posted Op-Ed via The FT,

The modern financial animal is wont to assume that he or she lives in an age of science. Just peruse the economic research that the great central banks produce. Even the titles of the papers are incomprehensible. Surely, the wit of man and woman has conquered the mysteries of money.

So much for appearances. The truth is we live in an age of pseudoscience. The central banks’ forecasting models have failed to predict the future. Quantitative easing and zero per cent interest rates — policy centrepieces of the post-2008 era — have failed to restore what we used to call prosperity.

Far from dealing in science, central bankers, and, to a degree, investment bankers and security analysts, employ magical thinking. What they have conquered is scepticism.

The tip-off of impending trouble in the Chinese stock market came on June 15, according to Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley’s head of emerging markets, when Shanghai prices registered a 2 per cent loss. It was President Xi Jinping’s birthday, and so widely expected that the market would rally. China’s leaders had sponsored the past year’s share-price levitation; did they not therefore control it?

Half a world away, a different set of authorities has sponsored flyaway markets in property, stocks and bonds. The object of the sponsorship, near and far, is to boost aggregate demand by raising asset prices. Feeling richer, the asset-holding portion of the community is expected to act the part. Never mind that, by definition, the prices thereby raised are distorted. The more they rise, the more disconnected they become from the economic value to which they are supposedly tethered. Many a market, like many an exchange rate, is today an instrument of national policy.

Ten years ago, Greece sold 30-year bonds at a price that yielded 4.45 per cent, just a quarter percentage point higher than the prevailing yield on German debt of the same maturity. Spanish and Italian bonds were quoted at the time at yields identical to Germany’s. Even then, Greek finances resembled an unmade bed; Jean-Claude Trichet, then European Central Bank president, protested that Greek recalcitrance on meeting the requirements of the EU stability and growth pact stretched fiscal rules “to the limit”. Still, “convergence” was the cry, and bond prices obediently soared, without regard to the heterogeneous merits of issuing governments.

Lamentable, we may all agree. Prices should be discovered in the market, not administered by a government. Actually, we do not all so agree. In response to the incentives set before them, investors pursue the main chance. In the case of European sovereign debt, they continue to buy, more or less without regard to the underlying strength (or lack thereof) of debtor states. They buy because the ECB has pledged to buy.

The phenomenon goes further — much further. Be it the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan or the ECB, central bankers’ first financial-markets objective is not the integrity of prices and exchange rates. It is rather crisis prevention — to keep the bouncing bond and stock market balls moving in their sanctioned orbits. (For an individual to fix Libor is a crime. For a central bank to suppress European bond yields is an act of financial statesmanship.)

You would think the value of those securities would ultimately be reconnected to the reality of future income. And you would be correct — “ultimately” being the operative word. “Income” is a term of art. Accountants, using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), tend to define it more conservatively. Managements of public companies and their Wall Street and City of London minions, seeking the appearance of greater profitability, tend to define it a little more generously.

A team led by Ben Whipple at the University of Georgia sifted through 130,000 earnings announcements US companies filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the 10 years till 2013. They found a persistent rise in unorthodox reporting. In 2003, 22 per cent of the filings featured “pro forma”, non-GAAP measures of financial performance. By 2013, 49 per cent did. Rising share prices create a demand for the earnings with which to rationalise them.

So it is that one kind of magical thinking begets another. The central bankers, putting the cart of bond and stock prices before the horse of enterprise, create artificial bull markets. Investors, not altogether unmindful of rising valuations, demand rising profits. These the companies strive to deliver, either according to GAAP or otherwise.

What is to be done? Why, restore the integrity of prices and of accounting conventions. Simple as that.

 

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Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:34 | 6352927 realmoney2015
realmoney2015's picture

End the Fed....'nuff said

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:15 | 6353093 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Prosecute the Fed heads for book-cooking, lying and encouraging their member banksters to do the same.

Bernanke lied when he said he wasn't monetizing debt. He should be sitting in prison rather than collecting $100s of thousands for speeches.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:38 | 6352933 no1ninja
no1ninja's picture

"Duh... its the immigrants!  They are the problem.  "

 

How can anyone fix the system when people are so easily spun around by the controlling interest.   Let's face it most people are not very bright... math is complex and the economy requires math. 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:42 | 6352960 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Smartest guy in the room – and looks like it.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 18:51 | 6354189 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

he must be gettin serious - he's ditched the bow tie for a necktie !

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:47 | 6352976 wmbz
wmbz's picture

"Jim Grant: Financial Prices Should Be Discovered, Not Administered"

 

That ship left the dock a long, long time ago... On a one way voyage!

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:49 | 6352981 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Humans are animals.  Trade that.

:)

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 15:01 | 6353450 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

That would certainly explain the viciousness.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:51 | 6352989 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

All that magical thinking and pseudoscience gives the alchemist economists a consistent salary and the elites a consistent income stream via drubbing the middle class and milking the public treasury while spreading misery amongst the 99%.

All aided and abetted by central banks and corrupt governments.

War by any other name.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:10 | 6353066 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Fine but like all wars this is a war of attrition.  We who stand against the tyranny will last longer than their fiat based credit debt system.  We will be victorious.  God will give us justice.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:58 | 6353018 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Want to hear something else messed up?  Paying off debt does not extinguish money as many people believe.  The banks create money out of nothing to loan to you...Yes.  When you pay them back, they cancel your debt and keep that money.  The money never disappears.  I shall say it again.  Deflation is never going to happen.  The only problem we have is inflation and wealth transfer.  We can have a bad economy.  That is not deflation.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:23 | 6353092 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Sort of, but you missed a bit.

The banker gives you a mortgage to buy a house and creates that money out of nothing by typing it into a keyboard.

You pay him back and the banker is all square with the interest to compensate him for his trouble.

BUT  .... what if you default?

The banker should be able to seize the asset and get his money back by selling it.

BUT ..... what if lots of bankers forget about prudent lending and engineer a housing bubble, e.g. sub-prime?

House prices start collapsing and the banker can no longer get his money back by selling the asset.

This is where the money destruction takes place, on the bankers balance sheets.

Bankers fear deflation as the asset backing the loan is going down in value.

What if bankers are silly enough to lend loads of money to somewhere like Greece?

There is no asset backing the loan ........

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:51 | 6353189 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Yeah.  There is more to the loan process and defaults.  But the thing is, when you pay them back, it is actually pure profit to the banks at the end of the road.  The debt they have as an asset is just slowly replaced by cash.  They don't get square.  They get all the money they created.  They keep all the cash, not just the interest.  IF they had to replace someone's deposit which they loaned out, it would be different.  But they don't.  There is no one to pay back.  It is just a matter of accounting.  If they have cash coming in, they keep it.  If there is a default, they lose an asset.  Yes.  It looks crappy for a quarter and maybe messes up their collateral somewhere.  But that is about it.  The really don't have to keep much in the way of reserve requirements.  As long as more payers than non-payers, they will remain liquid.

As far as buying soverign debt off of an exchange.  I don't know if they can legally do that with created money yet.  But that is why they have subsidiaries.  They loan money to subsidiaries (themselves) to do that kind of thing.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 12:58 | 6353022 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The fact that so few saw 2008 coming shows we are pretty clueless as to what is really going on.

Complex mathematical models based on fundamentally flawed assumptions do not make a science.

Economists take note.

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 14:28 | 6353344 r3phl0x
r3phl0x's picture

2008 wasn't an accident; it was a deliberate policy action. "Bankers create bubbles and then collapse 'em to fuck over non-bankers, and gain control over labor and real income-producing assets." -Thomas Jefferson

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 15:34 | 6353535 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Mr. Grant has specifically commented on a world where the "weights and measures" of economic analysis have no meaning.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:00 | 6353026 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

He just figured that out did he?

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:24 | 6353120 CPL
CPL's picture

Only way market dynamics of true price discovery happens now is to let the ponzi scheme collapse then see where the money actually goes without the active components hindering the processes of true price discovery.  With the shell game being played in all segments of industry and most governments, it will never get sorted out with the large amount of dirtbags on top shoving and pushing their weakly structured political and religious agendas. 

The only silver lining to that situation is most of them are so busy accidentally knifing each other they are completely unaware of the big picture in their tiny, dogmatic, myopic positions.  It certainly does make for great theatre though in the comedy of errors known as Earth.

-grabs popcorn-

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:24 | 6353135 Batman11
Batman11's picture

What's killing Capitalism?

Everyone wants to be an investor and no one wants to do anything.

I want to use my capital to ride on someone else's back that does all the work.

It hasn't done Warren Buffett any harm.

"Putting all your eggs in one basket, starting up your own company always looked too risky for me. Then there is all the hard work, why bother?" Warren

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 16:43 | 6353764 monad
monad's picture

Everyone wants to be an investor because work is punished and businesses stolen at penpoint.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 17:35 | 6353913 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

You made a good comment here.

We would all like to claim land, build a cabin, establish a store, and go into business with slave type labor or labor rates.

I have enjoyed your comments this last year to date.

Anyway, the world works by capitalism which may or may not have originated in Judea, Babylon, or Sumeria... but the laws carved in stone in Sumeria seem to indicated that our modern society is just a repeat of Sumerian Government, Education, Medicine, and Contract law.

Free Land, Technology that can profit a factory, Cheap Education, Cheap Credit/Loans, access to rivers, lakes, and forests profits the harvesters, Access to Oceans with boats along with stewardship of Oceans...

Those seem to be the Ways to make money, except for Fees for Real Estate Sales and Financial Fees.

Most of the Financial Fees would seem to focus on Wall Street and financial Engineering or Financial Schemes.

BUT today the Economic Model is Global Trade... How does a man/woman make it with Free Trade but by sending his wages to Asia... to the sweat shops, to slave labor.

Aw... I'm just going off on a tangent. I don't know shit. Or DO I?

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:26 | 6353146 Batman11
Batman11's picture

While the bubble is inflating people get the true joy of Capitalism.

Making money while doing nothing.

 Markets are irrational and have been since Tulip Mania in 1600's Holland.

Do not look for rational explanations, the prospect of easy money turns human beings into gibbering idiots.

 

Stocks, house prices, <yet another asset type> are going up in value.

I have heard of someone who has made lots of money, I want in.

I am making money, I need to borrow money to carry on investing and make more money.

Gibber, gibber, gibber ....................................

The bubbles burst; I am going to be ruined.

No more gibbering, till next time.

 

Tulip bulbs ..... gibber

South sea company .... gibber

UK Railways (1800s) .... gibber

The new internet (pre 1999) .... gibber

Sub-prime ..... gibber

Property .... gibber

Apple .... gibber

Social media .... gibber

Emerging markets ... gibber

 

 

Easy money ..... gibber, gibber, gibber 

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:29 | 6353154 Batman11
Batman11's picture

No wonder the Chinese stock market went crazy.

The typical Chinese experience of Capitalism has been working in an Apple factory with suicide nets.

With the stock market boom, they could make money for nothing and get the true joy of Capitalism.

In the West, experience has made no difference, we still boom and bust and can't resist a bubble.

It is China’s first time, no wonder they went crazy.

“Capitalism’s free lunch, I love it” Chinese ex-Apple employee (last month).

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 13:30 | 6353168 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The prospect of easy money is the fraudster's bread and butter.

Ponzi scheme anybody?

 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 14:04 | 6353273 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

Markets are always rational.  It's the lunatic "governments" and their aristocratic owners that flip out.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 16:13 | 6353675 doctorZH
doctorZH's picture

18 years of growth (...1911-1929, 1947-1965, 1983-2001...); then 18 years of non-growth, and gestation (1929-1947, 1965-1983, 2001-2019...) and PANIC.

 

We tend to take credit for those 18 years of growth, as you suggest.  Nature grows everything; we believe our genius has made us rich.  Growth inflates the world.  Then the deflation begins (and our genius) disappears.  No genius.  We are just along for the ride.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 14:17 | 6353315 Prober
Prober's picture

"Jim Grant: Financial Prices Should Be Discovered, Not Administered"

The USA should be governed by the USA Constitution and the Founders' Principles - but it is not, so why should financial markets be spared from manipulation and corruption ?

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 15:50 | 6353589 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"The truth is we live in an age of pseudoscience."

No, we live in an age of Zionist tyranny.

This LIBOR thing is more evidence of that: Governments on the hook. So-called media on the hook. LOL

Then there is the Zionist cookie revolution in the Ukraine.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

Being that Zion is a form of colonization, we're all just "natives" to them.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 17:41 | 6353933 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

kchrisc,

Hey I know that Dude(Fast Times at Ridgemont High).

Keep it up, kchrisc. You are a stalwart standard. A military Kind of Bulwark.

I demand Liberty.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 19:55 | 6354319 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"If you're here, and I'm here, isn't this our time?"

: - )

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

Thinking is like peering into a diamond. Each facet will offer a different view, and only by looking into them all can a clear picture be attained.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 15:51 | 6353595 PGR88
PGR88's picture

Shut down the Federal Reserve.   Restore the Republic 

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 16:59 | 6353776 exartizo
exartizo's picture

Governments should not be allowed to (visibly) pick winners and losers in markets.

This used to be the universal fundamental belief.

In just 7 short years that fundamental belief has given way to open and blatant flagrant frequent government market interventions and manipulations of every asset class in favor of the upper class and against the common man.

Things are finally starting to get interesting.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 16:56 | 6353790 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Partially

correct:

"The truth is we live in an age of pseudoscience."

Nobody is actually violating the laws of nature, however, the ONLY connection between the laws of men and the laws of nature is the ability to back up lies with violence, whose paradoxical social successfulness depended upon getting away with lying, which works to the degree that those lies could be backed up by violence. There was NO beginning to that. Rather, there was roughly an exponential growth of social systems based upon being able to back up lies with violence, becoming the currently established integrated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, which history was developed as the oldest and best developed form of social science and social engineering: warfare. However, as the oldest book on The Art of War starts and ends by saying: "success in war depends upon deceits" and "spies are the most important soldiers."

All political economy operates INSIDE human ecology. All of economics operates INSIDE of warfare. Those are the deeper reasons for how and why the currently established political economy is based on governments ENFORCING FRAUDS by privately controlled banks. Of course, that makes it appear politically impossible to really change those systems in any ways which could actually implement the ideals that: " Prices should be discovered in the market, not administered by a government."

The essential problem is that there were no ways to stop there being de facto free markets in murder. It was necessarily the history of warfare that created the surviving War Kings, that created the powers of sovereign states, which were covertly captured by the international bankers applying the methods of organized crime through the political processes, so that those banksters became the Fraud Kings, that overwhelmingly dominate the existing political economy. Those entrenched systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS are the SOURCE of "that one kind of magical thinking begets another."

Unfortunately, the relatively superficial analysis presented by Jim Grant then results in the promotion of relatively superficial "solutions," such as: "restore the integrity of prices and of accounting conventions,"  despite that we currently HAVE fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, which actually exist due to the ways that human civilizations have developed as social pyramid systems based upon being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS. The most important of those FRAUDS are the legalized counterfeiting of the public "money" supplies by privately controlled banks, which are ENFORCED by governments, in ways which appear at first glance to be collective social insanities, which can only be explained through a deeper analysis of how and why it was possible for the biggest gangsters to become the international banksters, who were persistently able to apply the methods of organized crime, such as bribery, and intimidation, as well as occasional assassinations of those who could not be bribed or intimidated, so that almost the only surviving and successful politicians became the political puppets of the banksters, who would be voted vote by enough of the masses of muppets.

INTENSE PARADOXES make "the integrity of prices and of accounting conventions" NOT be "simple as that," but rather quite hyper-complicated. Ideally, we should have human accounting systems that were consistent with an energy standard. Since human beings can not make energy out of nothing, nor send energy to nothing, making "money" out of nothing as debts, and for that "money" to be able to disappear to nothing, when those debts disappear, grossly violates the basic laws of nature at first glance. However, upon a deeper analysis it become clear that those systems of FRAUDS do not violate the laws of nature, because of the ways that those are ENFORCED.

When one carefully considers the ways that human civilizations actually and necessarily operate as general energy systems, then it become clearer how and why those most closely match the ways that the principles and methods of organized crime operate. It is from inside that context that I AGREE that:

Far from dealing in science, central bankers, and, to a degree, investment bankers and security analysts, employ magical thinking. What they have conquered is scepticism.

However, in my view, Jim Grant is also similarly indulging in magical thinking, when he proposes bogus "solutions" to the problems with our political economy which do not put those inside the context of the problems with our human ecology. Money is necessarily based upon backing up measurements with murder. The reasons why we have fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems are that those necessarily developed inside of the history of warfare, as de facto free markets in murder, which trended towards more and more efforts to monopolize that power to kill, in order to back up the power to rob.

The current systems of fraudulent accounting, where there is magical mathematics, due to making the public "money" supply out of nothing, which then can also disappear back to nothing, are due to the underlying history of those FRAUDS ENFORCED, by governments that could pass legal tender laws, and demand payment of taxes, using that fiat "money" made out of nothing as debts by privately controlled banks. Therefore, the overall real accounting systems were based upon the power to rob, backed by the power to kill, as done by governments, through politicians that were the banksters' puppets, who had been voted for by enough of the masses of muppets.

Inside that context, it is NOT "simple," but rather extremely hyper-complicated, to endeavour to "restore the integrity of prices and of accounting conventions." The only ways to develop better prices and accounting conventions would be to develop a better energy standard for the monetary system. However, doing that MUST admit and address the reasons for how and why the overall human energy systems necessarily matched the principles and methods of organized crime, because of the ways regarding how murder backing up money enabled the frauds to be enforced.

To NOT indulge in "magical thinking" requires that human beings and civilizations be understood from the perspective of evolutionary ecologies, within their actual environment. However, doing that requires that one recognize how the death control systems backed up the debt control systems. The paradoxical ways that we are now living inside of an oxymoronic scientific dictatorship, which pretends to be "scientific," but is actually based upon pseudoscience, is due to the long history of successful warfare being based upon deceits and treacheries, which was the foundation upon which was built the accounting systems based upon ENFORCED FRAUDS.

I REPEAT that, essentially, warfare was the oldest and best developed social science and social engineering, which was quite paradoxically based upon operating its murder systems most successfully by being the most deceitful and treacherous. Therefore, all of economics operates as a subset of that history of warfare, so that our currently existing political economy is almost totally based upon fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, whereby, since the public "money" supply can be made out of nothing, and disappear back to nothing, as debts are created and discharged, therefore, the "price of that money" is based upon that kind of magical mathematics. From that SOURCE of magical mathematics, flows everything else, so that the price of everything is rigged, due the price of that "money" itself being totally rigged.

Since the public "money" supply is based upon being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS, in ways which the vast majority of people do not understand, because they have been conditioned to not want to understand, the value of everything has become a fetish. Price discovery is a farce, when the price of the "money" itself has been manipulated to hell. Everything our political economy decides to do is done by using monetary systems which provide us with only bent rubber rulers to use to measure the value of anything.

The background problems are that the costs to ENFORCE FRAUDS are deliberately divorced from the money systems which must be based upon backing up measurements with murders. Instead, our civilization operates, as much as possible, through a hermetically sealed off human world, that regards the natural and emerging industrial world's energy systems in the most absurdly backward ways possible. The biggest bullies, which are currently the banksters, have made every effort possible to persuade people to believe in their bullshit, which requires the vast majority of people to deliberately ignore the basic laws of nature, as much as possible, or to deliberately misunderstand those laws of nature in the most absurdly backward ways possible, because that is what was necessary to enable the social successfulness of the public "money" supply to continue being based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS.

To endeavour to overcome those kinds of fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems theoretically requires that enough people would pay more attention to the basic laws of nature, such as the principle of the conservation of energy, which also manifested in the special case of the conservation of matter. I.e., it is not possible to create gold or silver, etc., out of nothing, nor to make those disappear to nothing. However, the original monetary systems which were backed by gold and silver were also backed by the death penalty for those who debased that form of money, which reasserts my original point, that money is measurement backed by murder.

Human societies have developed to become hyper-complicated paradoxes, due to their history of successful warfare based upon deceits, morphing to successful finance based upon frauds. Generally, those systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS are so deeply entrenched and taken almost completely for granted, that practically nobody is able to gain better perspective upon those problems. Rather, social successfulness continues to mostly be based upon proportionately being able to be act as the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, living inside of those systems.

Any "investors" who are making "money" are necessarily doing so inside of accounting systems based upon ENFORCED FRAUDS, whereby the murders that back up the measurements made by that "money" are as deliberately denied and ignored as much as possible, while everything is being regarded in the most absurdly backward ways possible. Therefore, it is almost impossible to exaggerate the degree to which that kind of civilization has become runaway, psychotic, criminal insanities. Everything is being dominated by "magical thinking," including within the various controlled opposition groups that surround the core of the organized crime groups which made and maintained the existing systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS.

Human beings and civilizations must operate as entropic pumps of energy flows, however, the history of successful warfare based upon deceits, and then successful finance based upon frauds, have enabled civilizations to develop the maximum possible deliberate misunderstandings of themselves. Therefore, to actually "restore the integrity of prices and of accounting conventions" is NOT "simple," but rather way more hyper-complicated that we can currently comprehend, especially since those systems have become globalized electronic frauds, backed the threat of force from atomic bombs.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 19:00 | 6354209 honestann
honestann's picture

Article:  What is to be done?

Answer:  Exit ALL paper assets.

Maybe hold some physical cash, well hidden at or near home.

Otherwise... 100% in physical assets that you hold and/or hide.

The locusts are coming, and will steal ALL assets you do not have physical possession of.  They might even take some of those too, if you let them.

Sat, 07/25/2015 - 22:51 | 6354725 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Analysts need not fret about the pseudoscientific as it fails repeatedly each successive business quarter. There is no possible way that the EU, or Wall Street, can continue to exist in current form. The reset is certain, and it will fail too, motherfuckers.

 

Equilibrium Economists don't get Quantum Mechanics, or Quantum Physics, let alone Quantum Behavioural Economics, or Finance Theory. They only think in a linear manner, and stuff can't be too complicated because that does not neatly fit into a 1 hour lecture which is all they are capable of absorbing with their limited attention spans.

 

FUCK contemporary Economists.

 

And the bus they all rolled in on.

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