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Dallas Fed Misses Expectations After June's "Miracle" Bounce; Jobs, Wages Decline

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After bouncing dramatically in June (the biggest surprise beat in over 3 years) - on the back of 'hope' surgiung to 6-month highs - July data continued to improve marginally but missed expectations -4.6 vs -3.5 exp). On the bright side New Orders inched into positive territory (although inventories are surging) but prices received tumbled, wages dropped, and employment fell (as hours worked rose). The biggest driver, once again, of the headline rise was 'hope' as the outlook rose to 18.8 - the highest since August.

 

 

As Hope over reality is averaging near 6 year highs...

 

Full Breakdown...

 

As one responmdent noted,

It is very odd for us to be so slow this time of year. June had decent billing but really low incoming orders, and July is starting out even worse than June on incoming orders.

 

Billing will be much lower as well.

 

We are optimistic that last quarter of the year will be much busier as it traditionally is our best quarter of each calendar year.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:41 | 6358894 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Nö shit

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:02 | 6358981 lordylord2
lordylord2's picture

Don't know why my account was banned, but I'm back.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:44 | 6358907 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Did they not triple seasonally adjust the data?

 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:15 | 6359017 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

They didn't use enough secret sauce, time to slather on more and ignore the rancid shit flavor because it's free range and organic......

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:49 | 6359138 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Yes but when you multiply three negatives, you get another negative.

Gonna have to be quadruple adjusted to turn positive.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:50 | 6358928 StackShinyStuff
StackShinyStuff's picture

Well NOW you've done it.  Prepare for launch Kevin...ENGAGE!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:50 | 6358933 DeProgrammed
DeProgrammed's picture

I am still unsure if all this blah economic data is the new status quo, or if a collapse is in order. The mountains of debt that have taken on a life of their own indicate collapse, but central planning is having some very Wizard of Oz effects. I also wonder if this stagnation and/or coming collapse is planned. IMO if a collapse comes due to a crumbling house of cards, at least that shows the shadow masters are not infallible, a centrally planned collapse may bring much more sinister outcome. Hard to tell what is real anymore, and what is planned or not planned. Scary.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:16 | 6359022 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

This is the good old days, they just don't know it yet....

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:22 | 6359037 JLO
JLO's picture

In the good ole days. It was the same crap. Lieing cheating and stealing. They just didnt have ZeroHedge pointing it out to them.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 12:55 | 6359381 CPL
CPL's picture

It was going to implode anyways as it was designed to.  It was mostly likely done based on an observation found about the glacial and interglacial cycles that are naturally occurring cycles on earth with the Volstock core samples.  Over a 144,000 year cycle on earth 130,000 of them earth is in a deep freeze, nearly tip to tip is glaciers and tundra.  Those glaciers carve the Himalayas, Swiss Alps, the Fjords, the Rockies.  Created the vast plains of the Russian Steppes, the Praries and all the fertile land that was compressed and flattened under two mile high glaciers retreating north and south.

And it's that time again, no matter the amount of geo-engineering done today (or the past), that 130000 year glacial period always comes.  The heat melts the ice caps, the sea level rises and all that water body acts as a heat sink.  Then as the solar system arc's outside of the protection and insulation of the belt of the Milky way, the temperature drops hard and fast leaving a thin strip of accessible land. 

It's assumed that the only way anyone survives the 130000 years is being nomadic, but there are some myths and stories of those that live underground or deep in the ocean.  Or they leave earth.  There is a consistent theme though, anyone not coughing up their gold, or shipping lead slugs typically get a couple of asteroids dropped on them or they get invaded, usually eaten (long pig, remember that).  The stories of the tribes that don't get harassed or rocks dropped on them are the ones that stay out of the troubles and live on the land away from other people's problems.  being independent of PM's and the trouble they bring.  Because here's the 411 on that.  Once some tribe makes an oath, it's never enough for those picking it up...worse yet when the tungsten content exceeds "x" amount in the given shipment.  They usually come back on a later date to collect with a large armada instead of just a pick up ship with a light brigade to take 'the harvest'.

Since there's only one tribe that's been dealing with them.  Don't help them.  Don't get in the way.   Just give it up and step way back from them.  That tribe's issue.  No one else's.  Have clean hands of other people's problems.  Last time they fucked up a shipment, they lost the tips of their dicks by command.  This time... everyone else just give it up and just step the fuck away.  It ain't your fight, and you won't win it if you decide to side with people that have been robbing you and stupidly, the pick up that's incoming.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:56 | 6358952 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

it's a recovery. it's a recovery. it's a recovery. it's a recovery. you are getting very sleepy. it's a recovery. gas prices are down.. spend. spend. spend.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 12:33 | 6359308 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Yep, regular is only $3.69.9 last night at the local Shell.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:59 | 6358962 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

US durable goods too expensive compared to other currencies.

Corporate revenues are shrinking.

Even after including the drug money laundry service.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:50 | 6359145 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Business taxes after taxes are shrinking even faster.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:58 | 6358965 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

RutRo!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:05 | 6358993 wmbz
wmbz's picture

"We are optimistic that last quarter of the year will be much busier as it traditionally is our best quarter of each calendar year".

 

A little hopeium goes along way... Of course "savy shoppers" will be loading up on X-Mas junk soon! 

Charge!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:17 | 6359027 rejected
rejected's picture

Besides bombs, missiles and other weapons,,, what do we manufacture,,, anything for the retail market?

Every now and then I see some little widget made in USA but 99.9% is overseas.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:29 | 6359064 Tribulation Blues
Tribulation Blues's picture

The thing people need to be focused on at the moment, that was indeed created in America, is the Wedding Supper Of The Lamb 'Invitation'! The final call goes out people, those who are wise will ask while they still can!

http://revelation12.ca/?page_id=805

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:45 | 6359126 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

"We are optimistic that last quarter of the year will be much busier as it traditionally is our best quarter of each calendar year."

 

Remedial translation:

What has always been, will always be...    

What a F-ckn' bitch-slap comeuppance when 30+ years of easy-credit fueled 'consumerism' finally keels over.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 20:30 | 6361021 JC-BI
JC-BI's picture

A bit of history on why we shouldn't trust the Fed >>

https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/07/28/how-the-ashkenazi-je...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!