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When Will We Ever Learn?
Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,
Life is full of irony. When I was in school, I hated history. It was boring. It was pointless. How was reading about a bunch of dead people ever going to be useful in life? Today, I consume everything I can find on history. Particularly, financial history. Ironic.
Of course, it only took me 25 years in the investment world to realize that human behavior is quite fascinating. The capacity for optimism is seemingly limitless, but the "sting" of failure is quite transient.
While it is in those failures that valuable lessons are taught, studies have shown that humans tend to suppress or substitute new memories over time.
George Santayana once said:
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
The phrasing itself certainly is catchy, and is often used in the financial media due to its underlying truth. If history is a guide to the results of previous actions, and those results were painful, then history should guide not only policy making (public and private) but our own behaviors as well.
It's hard to disagree with. Over the history of the financial markets (all the way back to the 1600's) speculative investing has repeatedly led to booms and busts. In 2007, as the markets were enraptured with the speculative sub-prime lending and real estate boom, I gave a presentation containing the following two slides on past history.
Of course, I need to the Real Estate/Financial Crisis of 2008 to that list.
Importantly, each of these "bubbles" involved an excessive level of speculation around some specific asset. In 2007, I highlighted (in red) the speculative levels of excess seen in certain areas. [Note: It is important to remember that in 2007 the financial media did NOT believe there was a bubble being formed and that there was NO excess in the markets.]
Of course, it is all rather obvious in hindsight. Valuations were high, the Fed was hiking interest rates and the love affair with stocks and leverage had reached historically high levels.
Today, there are many signs that the markets are once again approaching a "danger zone." Margin debt is once again at historically high levels; valuations are the second highest in history and the "love affair" with equities has pushed stocks to record highs. But these areas are really just a reflection of the excesses that are building elsewhere in the financial system.
The following are some areas of excess that are suspiciously similar to history.
Wine Lending (via NYT)
"For the wealthy, wine has become the ultimate liquid asset. With prices for top vintages soaring past $10,000 a bottle, fine wine is being bought, sold and traded at auction like a new investment class, with its own value indexes, investment funds and speculators. And now wealthy collectors are using wine as leverage — raising cash to invest in more wine and create even more wealth. ...
Borrowers are mainly using the money to buy more wine, betting they can pick the winners that will surge in value, which they can sell to pay off the loan and make a profit — similar to buying stocks on margin. Other wealthy borrowers are using the money for divorces or tax payments, or to buy a boat or a car. And many of the wealthy, especially business owners, have frequent short-term cash squeezes."
Stock Repurchases (via Business Insider)
"Rich Barry at the NYSE wrote: Buyback factoid: ~20% of S&P 500 companies have reduced their share count by at least 4% year-over-year in each of the last five quarters(!!), and that appears to be continuing into Q2. As of [Tuesday] night, 92 companies in the S&P have reported Q2 earnings; 20 have reduced their share count by at least 4% year-over-year. That means earnings per share is 4% higher and P/E is 4% lower than a year ago for those companies.
This corporate action falls broadly under the umbrella of 'financial engineering.'"
Subprime Auto Loans (via Bloomberg)
"Demand for automobile debt in the U.S. is enabling lenders to make longer loans to people with spotty credit, stoking concern that car shoppers are being lulled into debt loads they won't be able to sustain.
Of the subprime vehicle loans bundled into securities, 73 percent now exceed five years, up from 64 percent during the first three months of 2014, according to data from Citigroup Inc. Loans as long as seven years are increasingly being put into more bonds as auto-finance companies and Wall Street banks sell the securities at the fastest pace since 2007."
Subprime Mortgages (via Breitbart)
"Southern California real estate agents are flogging a no-down-payment, no-closing-costs and no-mortgage-insurance product called the "wealth-builder" home loan, which allows individuals to renters to buy a house and rent it to themselves. Essentially the borrower takes out a 15-year term FHA loan and pre-pays 4% to "buy down" the loan interest rate from about 4.1% to about 2.5%."
"A painting by Pablo Picasso has set a new world record for the most expensive artwork to be sold at auction after reaching $179m (£115m) in New York.
Women of Algiers (Version O) had been expected to exceed $140m before the auction but the final price far exceeded those estimates in a sale at Christie's auction house at a time when collectors' appetite for masterpieces of impressionist, modern and contemporary art is increasing."
Yachts (via CNN)
"Introducing Triple Deuce, set to be the world's biggest superyacht at a whopping 222 meters (728 feet) long.
At $1 billion, it will also be the most expensive private yacht ever built, costing more than the annual GDP of Western Sahara, the British Virgin Islands, and Micronesia."
Mergers & Buyouts (via Preqin)
"The opening quarter of 2015 has seen the highest quarterly value of private equity-backed buyout deals since Q3 2007, led by the merger between Kraft Foods Group and H.J. Heinz Company. The total value of buyout deals in Q1 2015 reached $97bn, the highest amount since $125bn worth of deals in the third quarter of 2007."
Real Estate (Homes, Apartments, Hotels)
"The median existing-home price in June was $236,400, a 6.5 percent year-over-year change, surpassing the $230,400 peak median set in July 2006. It was the 40th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The median existing single-family home price was $237,700, a 6.6 percent annual increase, besting the previous peak of $230,900 in July 2006. The existing condo price was $226,500 in June, which is 5.5 percent above a year ago and the highest median price since August 2007 ($229,200)."
(via CNBC)
"The average apartment price in Manhattan hit a record $1.72 million in 2014, as the New York wealthy and overseas rich continue to seek safety in the New York skyline.
While sales volume is slowing, prices continue to rise in New York as strong demand competes for historically low supply. The average sale price for the year topped the previous peak in 2008, of $1.591 million, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers."
"The pending acquisition of the 158-room Mandarin Oriental in San Francisco will create a new record price paid on a per room basis. The sale price is going to be in the neighborhood of $1 million per room, according to multiple sources that are aware of the transaction, making the acquisition close to $158 million. The previous record was $650,000 per room that was paid by Chicago-based LaSalle Hotel Properties in February of last year for its $130 million purchase of the 200-room Hotel Vitale."
I could go on with automobiles, planes, collectibles and other completely stupid $*#% all fetching record prices, but you get the idea. In an economy that is flush with liquidity, supported by low interest rates and wrapped in a speculative frenzy; there is little reason to worry about a downturn. But therein lies the potential lesson of history. We have been here before, but expect it to end differently this time.
The lessons of ignoring history are likely to be learned once again... the hard way.
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Society as a whole will never learn. However, those of us that DO learn and realize society will keep spinning in circles, can milk this to our advantage and profit off of their failures :P
Those who remember the past but yet do not understand the past are still doomed to repeat it.
The Mickster
At least China isn't in a bubble
These articles on ZH (and Drudge) are getting scary. Seems like everything is speeding up to some disasterous ending.
“There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.” He told them this parable: “Look at the fig tree and all the trees. When they sprout leaves, you can see for yourselves and know that summer is near. Even so, when you see these things happening, you know that the kingdom of God is near." - Luke 21:25-31
And anyone who DRANK a $10,000 bottle of wine will answer for it. I personally don't care what anyone does with their money, but I am not God.
Hmmmmm...gives me an idear there...It's about that time to rhyme again...
Maybe we should start selling over-priced tulip bulbs on margin to the sheeple.
They'll never know what hit'em
I'd still prefer the tulip currency over the central bank fiat currencies we have today. At least with tulips us regular Joes would effectively have our own printing press gardens, not just the central banks.
A lot of people get very rich by banking on history to repeat itself.
Some of us learn. Unfortunately, most who do learn are not of the personality type that wishes to have power over others. Thus, the malevolent domineering types rise to to the top instead of the benevolent. Even if they did "learn" from history, the former could care less about the plebs - lest that concern interfere with their intoxicating designs of control.
It's sad, but this seems to be a law of human nature. Therefore, when a leader arises who DOES have a solid character (proven through his own life history) and who DOES espouse a policy of governance based on truth, then it is OUR duty to follow and support him or her with all of our being.
Screw history, anyone that cannot see what is happening is either blind or ignorant...
Where have all the flowers gone?
Fukushima
Where has all the sea life gone, long time ago
Where have all the markets gone?
Gone to banksters every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?
The market might crash. But who cares. Markets crash all the time. Yet it won't lead in inflation. The whole thing is a deflationary vortex. No stopping it.
Exactly. If we are to learn anything from history, it's that people by and large make the same fucking mistakes over and over and over ad infinitum.
On a totally unrelated topic, isn't it great living in the Nuclear Age?
Corollary: Those who understand history are doomed to watch it be repeated by those who do not.
Actually, with fiat currency you can engage in all sorts of shenanigans. All you have to do is sell nothing for something. A piece of paper, an idea or any intangible can be sold for fiat money. Then cash out and move on, you'll be fabulously wealthy.
You forgot about the "days of Noah." (Matt. 24) Then again, most don't know Hebrew or Greek ..
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=michael+heiser+prophecy
Actually, Jesus, like many others in that region spoke Aramaic. Anytime you translate a person's language into another may have its drawbacks.
As for Hebrew and the Noah story, most authentic scholars recognize it as a story emanating from several other ancient cultures.
I always find it humorous when people quote scripture... Scholars? Don't you mean pimps for the greatest lie ever perpetuated against man for the sake of control?
You do realize that christianity was derived from Egyptian sun worship, right? The same story has been handed down for 10,000+ years across the ME, all worshipping the sun with identical myths as in the bible...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM9-8qj_Js8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1CWBKRWIg0
So go ahead and down-vote me for having the audacity of questioning your programming... Go on, I double-dog dare you...
I will not downvote you for that. I do not need to.
But this "information" has been debunked time after time.
What surprises me is that you accept it without being skeptical about it...of course...since it aligns with what you WANT to believe, rather than what lines up with accepted practices of the translation of the ancient hieroglyphs.
(And THAT...to the understanding of any critical reader..is the PRACTICE OF BLIND FAITH RELIGION...which...you practice so well. Let me guess...You were a Roman Catholic at one point, right?)
The sad truth is that YOU refuse to invest any time into an HONEST investigation of your source. (You are NOT an Egyptologist and do not translate hieroglyphs. Hell you do not translate ancient Hebrew or ancient Greek.) So you refuse to even seek out those who are. YOU refuse to think CRITICALLY, consider counterpoint information, and then blame others for that WHICH YOU DO.
That is the epitome of HYPOCRISY.
And it fatigues me to continually debunk this "zeitgeist" bullshit.
A mistake which you made is that you transfer your own intellectual laziness and lack of critical thinking skills upon others. (Of course that trait is endemic within the hordes of the First Deviation Intelligensia...and those who score below.)
But I have my credibility, whereas, you haven't any.
So I need not downvote you...as if that matters.
You actually do a good enough job trashing your own self. My words point that out, and convict you, better than any downvote ever will.
All I need do is laugh at a faraway target for laughter.
Says the one hurling personal attacks. HINT: Insults are not an argument, and do nothing to persuade others.
If you are going to hurl insults, at least do it right, and throw in a momma joke.
I have presented the arguments far too many times.
But I am NOT destined for Heaven. I am destined for Hellfire and so are you. Of that I am certain.
I will become Death in the post Collapse.
Have you built your flamethrower yet?
Don't beat yourself up TT. There is no hell, only eternal nothingness. Hell is a construct to scare and control people.
Ah! The "I'm better than you because I'm a christian" rant.
I was a christian once, indoctrinated with bullshit ancient fairytales. Grow a brain, say goodbye to hoax religion.
What a fool!!! I am not chosen, fool!!!
I am going straight to Hell along with the rest of you assholes. But just because I am going to Hell does not mean that there is no God.
I am no better. I just point out that you definitely are NOT.
So go and fuck yourself.
I am just awaiting the breakdown of civilization. Then assholes like you will have NO MERCY. People as your wussy self will be screaming for mercy. I will be an angel of Death.
een enorm dom antwoord. Stik in je eigen piemel lulhannes.
Groeten van een Hollander.
What a pretentious priestly cocksucker. May the real life Son of Man Titus Caesar bless your sorry mind controlled ass. The code has been broken religious douchebags....see Joseph Atwill's Caesar' Messiah but you will need a therapist in order to deal with it. Good luck on your road to recovery.
I pray to God these days like calling in a air strike esp after the selling baby parts crime " almighty almighty wisky tango hotel shake the tree"
Good one. Hope it works.
That and this atrocity.
Society has been going through collapse and regeneration for centuries. Some societies have collapsed and disappeared forever. Why do your tired and worn out scripture apply to this exact moment in time and not the crusades or world war 1 or 2. Maybe you tired and worn out scriptures refer to billions of years into the future when the sun runs out of nuclear fuel. How do you know when a time is never referred to. How can you know?
You can't but haven't got the courage to admit it.
BOTA the one trick pony returns.
News Brief:
Babylon the Great Whore (the global financial system) is on the verge of collapse (as foretold in Revelation 17/18).
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+17&version=NIV
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2018&version=NIV
The power of the 7th King/head and its image (the British Empire/USA) is waning (as foretold in Revelation 13/17).
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2013&version=NIV
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation+17&version=NIV
That leaves only the 8th King/head (Revelation 17:11) to rise as the dominant world power- and that 8th king rules for a very short time.
All this, in addition to the fact that all the hundreds of prophecies in the Bible have been fulfilled- but for a handful that are being fulfilled as those with eyes to see watch them unfold.
There are numerous signs that are occuring now, that those who choose to remain willfully ignorant will not understand- because they don't know scriptural prophecy, and so can't connect the dots.
That is how I know.
"That is how I know."
Your arrogance is astonishing.
"There I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast that was covered with blasphemous names and had seven heads and ten horns"
Youy are simply insane if you believe this stuff.
You clearly don't understand metaphors.
You, like all of us, have free will.
You may turn a blind eye,
Yet you will be held accountable for it.
"For by your words you will be acquitted, and by your words you will be condemned." - Matthew 12:37
The seven heads of the beast out of the sea are:
1. Egypt (3150-1070 BC; 1550-1070 BC as uncontested “superpower”; can not be 8th King)
2. Assyria (Syria; 911 – 627 BC; can not be 8th King)
3. Babylon (Iraq; 626-539 BC; can not be 8th King)
4. Medo-Persia (Achaemenid Empire) (Iran; 550-330 BC)
5. Greece (336-30 BC)
6. Rome- (27 BC-476 AD) - (Can not be 8th King)
7. British Empire, which led to the United States of America as its Image; can not be 8th King).
The "woman" is the prostitute, that rides the kings of the earth- the global financial system.
Now you know.
HAHAHAHAHA, metaphors. The only "Get out of jail free" card the religious fraternity have.
OK, fine, metaphor. Why does a beast with seven heads and ten horns mean a financial system?
Why can't it mean video games?
Why can't it mean evangelical christians who rip their dumb followes off without a shred of regret?
Seek, your internal model of the universe is flawed, as is every religious nuts internal model. You will go to the nth degree to twist extrenal reality to conform to your internal model and metaphors allow you to do this quite easily (there are no rules when interpreting metaphors).
When your internal model stubbornly refuses to conform to the extranl reality we call the universe the natural reaction is to want it destroyed and rebuilt to conform to your internal model. Psychology 101.
Very sick, very dangerous.
As to the above list 1 -8. Absolute clap trap. You could have said anything and how does anyone go about critiquing it. Why is the British empire that "led to" the United States on the list and not the evil communist Russia or China?
We need a new word similar to anthropomorphism but relating specifically to religious fanatics who can bend virtually anything in reality to their bible.
BOTA,
You are very close minded.
You didn't even grasp what I wrote, although it written clearly.
Be honest with yourself- you don't understand how to interpret prophecy.
It is, for the most part, all metaphorical.
Absolutely agree that I can't interpret prophesy as I can only understand aspects of life seated in reality.
No, this is really not sick. It is normal for humans to cling for safety Asteroid. We all do it. The psyche wants to build a model of the world to live in and the mind complies. Eventually, if spiritual growth occurs, the Self sees this really a construct and begins to unravel it to be free. Life itself is a glorious teacher and will poke at the model trying to bring it down. We resist this.
Few realize they are just like a dog wearing a shock collar in a yard without a fence. They try to run free but when they hit the boundary, the shock keeps them in. What happens? They become afraid and except their bondage. Some dogs won't be contained and keep testing the boundary. They realize the shock won't kill them, it's just uncomfortable. Eventually some dogs decide the brief pain is worth it and break free.
Ok, I guess that was a simile not a metaphor but I cleverly wove in the dog/God connection. ;-)
Miffed;-)
and some dogs becomes acclimatized and grows to enjoy the pain induced by their collars.
The psyche and the mind are one and the same Miffed;)
The human mind is a computer that models the universe through a neural network of incredible complexity. We literally occupy two universes, an external one called reality and an internal one called our mind.
Those brains that accept science as the only reliable way to investigate the external universe while eliminating human emotion and bias most likely have a clearer picture of the external world.
Those brains that don't accept science have an internal model that while satisfying to the host is incompatable with the reality of the external world. Does it matter on a personal level, no, not really. It gets even more complex though because religious artefacts, art, writing and stories actually become part of the external universe and these become modelled and included as part of the internal universe of many people. The line between reality and fantasy becomes incredibly blurred especially for non-critical thinkers.
I think I have vastly more credence that the likes of Seek_Truth in this debate as I really don't care what the answer is, I'm just interested in exploring it. The only way to explore it is through the natural world and spefically by eliminating all human constructs such as bibles. We all know too well how mass delusion is possible in the human race and organised religion is the absolute king maker of mass delusion.
I also eliminate my emotions to the best extent I can because I know how unreliable emotion is. I'd invite you do do the same and then realise just how difficult it is.
I attempt to be a passive observer.
I have seen nothing in this life that leads me to a '"grey beared invisible skyman" creator. Could there be one, maybe. Is there any evidence of this, no, none. Could we be the construct of a super advanced alien civilisation, maybe. Is there any evidence of this, no none. Could we exist simultaneously in an infinte array of parrallel universes, maybe. Is there any evidence of this, no, none. Could we be the result of a simulation in a universe sized super computer, maybe. Is there any evidence, no, none.
Do you get my drift?
There's no evidence and evidence garnered via scientific process is the only thing that seperates reality from fantasy. This is about the only thing I am certain of.
Asteroid, I think there is a subtle difference between the mind and the psyche. To me, the mind is the compilation of thoughts and recorded experiences of the individual. The psyche includes more of the Freudian aspects of Id, Ego and Super Ego which the mind responds uniquely. But this may be quite similar if analyzed closely.
We have one difference. You have divided it into 2. The mind and the external world. There is one more. Consciousness or Awareness. Who you are is a conscious being OBSERVING the mind as well as the form external to it. Whatever is observable by definition NOT SELF by the simple definition of it is observable. It is easy to determine external objects are not you, however the emotions and thoughts of the mind are not you as well. You are the one observing them. There is a continuity of consciousness that is present. If you gaze in the mirror you see yourself differently from who you were as a ten year old but the Observer or Awareness is the same.
Therefore emotions are not you but a bad roommate that is sharing your mind with you. It is unlikely you'd ever be able to suppress them because they are part of the human experience, however, just knowing they are not who you are makes them bearable. For example, I am facing surgery tomorrow and my mind is very active with lots of fear. I cannot fix thoughts with more thoughts just as you cannot remove a leaf from a pond without stirring ripples. So, I'm am just watching my mind go wild trying to catch my attention. I relax and let go. Life is a movie that plays. I have a choice to fret or relax but the movie still plays.
I love science because it brings the chaos of the external world into a more rational framework the mind can grasp. But science is not infallible because we humans apply it imperfectly with our innate biases. I've have seen enough research where data is massaged to prove a thesis to make me squirm.
Certainly science cannot prove the existence of God. You are applying that which requires observable phenomena to prove something. This does not disprove God but another means must be used. For me, God is experiential and only the individual on his own quest can have this. There are many ways to do this. For some, it may be reading Scripture. Others, a miraculous experience that science cannot explain. That is what happened to me. But it is my experience and cannot be shared satisfactory to another have them share the experience. Scientific experimentation must be repeatable to be valid. But I know the Devine exists. I have experienced it. However, I am still a scientist and I approach things analytically as I can knowing my fallibility as a human. Believe it or not they are not mutually exclusive. Cannot light be a particle as well as a wave? ;-)
Personally I get a kick out of you and the fundamentalists having a go around. Certainly there will never be a resolution but the interactions can be provocative. I do enjoy my world shaken up. This is necessary for growth. Otherwise we do not Seek Truth, we cling to I Have Truth. ;-)
Miffed
Best wishes for your operation. I hope it's not serious and if it is I hope you emerge and live a long and happy life.
Yes indeed I agree these debates will never be resolved as we all do indeed have absolutely unique internal models of the universe. Even so far as how we interpret "experiences" as you state above that led you to your belief in a god.
My suspicion is that your experience is laced with images, thoughts, words and emotions that are highly correlated to cultural programming that we cannopt escape. I've had some unbelievable experiences myself with lucid dreaming, stuff that is beyond the ability of words to convey but I place no divine, other worldly, out of body type description to it. I describe it as another possible state of consciousness, nothing more.
I believe what you are doing as does nearly everyone is projecting that inner experience onto the outside reality. People you convey your story to then internalise that which to them has come from the outside world so must be real. It gets very complicated and blurry as to what is real and what is the make believe of the internal model our brains create.
I do not doubt your experience for a single second but I do doubt it's significance and correlation to the external universe. This is such an important point and deserves laboring. What is real and what isn't? Your experience is real, 100% certain because you can describe it, you can feel it. When I lucid dream my experience is real but I know that I am not physically flying to other places. It feels like I am but my feelings do not correlate to reality and who says they should? If I were to take LSD and see the walls pulsate we know the walls aren't really pulsating in the external world.
So my point is, feelings are only relevent in the internal model, they are not relevent to the external universe. Feelings are the absolute domain of the neural network and its chemical signallers, blockers and pulses of electricity. Feelings cannot be used to infer anything about the external world because simply, they have no rules, there is no standard method by which to interpret them so almost by defintion alone, they are inadmissable to the debate. Important to you personally I agree, but inadmissable to the investigation of the nature of the universe. Your feelings as the feelings of any human being are irrelevent and I mean that in as respectful a manner as I can possiblky state.
Again, I sincerely hope you get well. Letr us know how you go.
hey, creflo dollar needs that personal jet. god told him to get it.
Metaphor, for sure. But you believe in the LITERAL translation of the scriptures, eh? That is your ignorance. The LIGHT is within YOU. Remove the veil that hides it (e.g. dogmatic organized religion, et. al.)
The light is only in you if you accept Jesus Christ as your savior.
The veil signifies the mediator- Jesus Christ- if you don't have Him- you have no light in you.
"And Jesus cried out again with a loud voice, and yielded up His spirit. 51And behold, the veil of the temple was torn in two from top to bottom" - Matthew 27:50,51
"Then Jesus told them, “You are going to have the light just a little while longer. Walk while you have the light, before darkness overtakes you. Whoever walks in the dark does not know where they are going. Believe in the light while you have the light, so that you may become children of light.” When he had finished speaking, Jesus left and hid himself from them. - John 12:35,36
Anyone calling for the suspension of the laws of physics will lose. Period.
A fool also is full of words: a man cannot tell what shall be; and what shall be after him, who can tell him?
i would like to weigh in here for a moment, and you all may dismiss me. I would not blame you if I did.
When I was a young, vibrant colt, full of spirit and independence and passion, the light of God shone through me and I was full of faith. I attended church religiously, but did not truck with the old ways, only in my faith in Jesus Christ. But the hypocrisy I saw, the ignorance, the corruption, hurt me deeply, Changed my trajectory. Sent me away. That was 30+ years ago.
But in the past year has been very strange. I see the signs. I am amazed by the rapid changes. The gears of my past are grinding again, the light is plain for me to see again, but I am not filled with joy this time. I am filled with fear. There is a great and horrible judgement coming. I sense it in the very core of my being. It is awesome and terrifying. I pray every day for guidance and wisdom and mercy.
I pray also that I am wrong. I want to be deluded, misguided, paranoid. But God tells me that I am not. I have been given a gift. I am grateful and I am in awe. You would all be well to pray yourself. For guidance. For wisdom. For mercy.
Enjoy August. In the fall comes the reaping.
OK. But can we at least wait until the Pumpkin Spice Ales are ready.
/hic!
People have been seeing signs for millenia.
It's a construct of your mind, nothing more.
>> In the fall comes the reaping <<
Give them a number or give them a date, but NEVER give them a number AND a date, O Gifted One.
the foreknowledge of how a prophecy will be fufilled is not given to man.
Prophesy is dark age fantasy and it absolutely astonishes me that people in this day and age are (I hate to say this) stupid enough to believe it.
The scripture is very relevant today. it's only been a half century in the spectrum of time that one push of a button could set off a chain reaction that could destroy the Planet and all humanity-or that Fukishima type disasters could do the same over a short period of time. Don't make fun of those who cite scripture -they may be right this time.
If the human race survives long enough that the suns nuclear fuel runs out then the scriptures will have been talking abouit that event right?
Do you ever consider that the fault is not with the TAWO scripture but with those who misunderstand or misapply it?
Personally, it leaves me cold as to the essentials but given the gems therein I hardly think it's TAWO in toto.
Are you serious that "organised religion is the absolute king maker of mass delusion"? That has to be the MSM. Please.
Seek, someone has to break it to you but the uber sucessful mind control program of the Flavian Caesars has been broken. Titus Caesar is the Son of Man and wacked out religious dickwads will be needing some serious therapy as that fact becomes internalized. See Atwill's Caesar's Messiah to begin the road to recovery. Wishing you and millions of others success on that road. ....
Titus and Goebbels can't hold a candle to the current propagandists.
That's the general consensus. Think of it like a whirlpool. When you're on the outer edge everything is spinning slowly. As you move towards the middle you move faster and faster until you're sucked down below
You can take solace in the words of Tyler Durden:
It's only after you've lost everything that you're free to do anything.
Not anymore! ;-)
More to the point:
http://www.age-of-the-sage.org/philosophy/history/learning_from_history.jpg
Just a little fun and games for the parasite classes.
I remember Granma slept on a mattress with thousands in paper fiat under it....so i got that going for me.
With a thick tempurpedic, gold gives one increasingly less disturbing dreams the larger the stack is... so does lead. Funny, lead is toxic, must be molecular charges or something.
Yeah, catchy phrase indeed. You all can down vote this comment all you want and many of you will at the mere mention of the Scriptures but the fact is plain how many of the so called catchy phrases, full of wisdom, come straight out the Bible:
Ecclesiastes 1:9 KJV
The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
Well this shit logic explains why the bubbles keep getting bigger, more frequent and more destructive.
There will be no solution to the bubbles when those who profess to prevent them for economic stability create them better than everyone else.
*cough FEDERAL RESERVE .
Society can and does learn, ever heared of the United Nations, the European Coal and Steel Community (now the the European Union )
You are what is wrong with the world. the phenomenon of a social contract can only work when enough people realize that working together is most adventageous for all. If that number drops below a certain level we all become Africa.
Of Of course you are being satiracal..thanks for my laugh of the day.
Since the UN and EU are colossal black hole failures, it is interesting to hear how you define "learning."
And thanks to unlimited immigration and multiculturalism, the EU is already an African colony.
You are what is wrong with the world. Because your entire concept of "social contract" requires an army of goons with badges and guns to make sure that the rest of the proles are "working together."
Are you a Greek pensioner too or just a socialist?
IRage
sadly true
It's just money...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtFyP0qy9XU
greed and hubris; but that's human nature.
We never learn 'cos every generation reinvents "happiness"...and the pursuit of, irrespective of consequence.
I never met one; do they piss like us?
This time is different, duh!
"When will we ever learn?"
Umm, errr...... learn what now, exactly?
The Bazooka Bubble Gum Bubble of 1955?
Hey, you left off the California Ostrich Bubble which was going to solve all food problems...There are still remnant ostrich farms litterling California with burst dreams of changing the world and becoming rich.
Big one in my town. One egg will feed all the white people in Zimbabwe.
Made a doublette.
If history has taught us anything, it will be that hundreds of articles just like this will appear in zerohedge.
I have a large ripe perssonal collection of toe and finger nail clippings arranged in an original belly button lint setting. I'd be very willing to pledge said colleciton as collateral. If interested, just contact Mr Blankfiend at Goldman Sachs, 200 Water Street, NY, NY 10000000000000000000000000930
Securitize them into tranches.Big toe to littlest and you'll be stinking(pun intended) rich.
Brilliant use of repurposing to attain distinct market advantage.
Careful, your tentacles may beging to show if you're not paying attention.
Blankfein would be proud...
DaddyO
The FBI bio artifacts division will be knocking on your door in full bio suits. The last seizure of that Indiana guys arrowhead collection didn't bring in revenues projected ( as no one now wants a arrowhead collection)
What a disgrace.
The majority cannot learn; that's what History says.
History is a vast early warning system.
There are many of us that are well aware of whats going on.
And profit accordingly.
To prtofit from corruption is to be corrupt. To profit from the revelation of corruption is of the highest order. Do you understand?
Or as a friend of mine once said in a conversation:
Friend: "When I buy a new car the first thing I do is rip out the rear view mirror"
Me: "Why?"
Friend: "Because everything behind me is history, I'm not interested"
With that attitude, he could have become history if he wandered over into the way of a semi
"Franco: And now my friend, the first-a rule of Italian driving.
[Franco rips off his rear-view mirror and throws it out of the car]
Franco: What's-a behind me is not important."
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074597/quotes
hell, I remember the chinchilla boom - two in the basement will make you rich. ha ha
I actually know someone that got stuck with two males for $800 each - no fucking profit there.
Rent to myself.
Huh.
All maintenance and improvement expenditures deductible against the rental income.
Huh.
In addition to taxes and mortgage interest deductions.
Huh.
And any other legitimate Business expenses I may Incur.
Huh.
http://www.breitbart.com/california/2015/01/04/sub-prime-mortgage-loans-...
‘studies have shown that humans tend to suppress or substitute new memories over time’
This is exactly why we must euthanize the liabilities. “The Children” born today, 2015, will have no recollection of the event, their millstone being removed.
"A painting by Pablo Picasso has set a new world record.....reaching $179m (£115m) in New York."
This is exactly why the wealthy shouldn't be taxed - they create jobs.....
How many ov dem youse want?
I cut chu deal.
(Sorry Boris, my best faux russian.)
The study of crime begins with the knowledge of oneself. ~Henry Miller, The Air-Conditioned Nightmare, 1945.....
Bubbles can not be created without debt to support the frenzy. All bubbles are debt created. If a person want to "invest" $10,000 for a bottle of wine or $1.7 million for a NYC co-op and they do so with cash, that's not a bubble because the explosion only hurts the owner. A debt driven bubble exploding creates lots of collateral damage due to debt driven stupidity. If the original lender was forced to hold 50% of the debt for 5-10 years rather than collateralize and sell 100%, you'd see smaller and less destructive bubbles. Just my opinion.
When Will We Never Learn?
Sorry Tyler, this headline would seem more fitting, especially in view of today's market shenanigans...
DaddyO
The author did not include dollars or bonds in his listing of bubbles. And he put precious metals at the top of his list. Any article that does not acknowledge government manipulation of precious metals prices in order to artificially prop up fiat was not worth writing and is not worth reading.
Yet you commented, spent your time and ours to say absolutely nothing.
The crystal 8 ball says that you are a FINANCIAL adviser
"The lessons of ignoring history are likely to be learned once again... the hard way."
No, no, no.
The lessons of history are well known. What happened was deliberate, not an accident born of forgetting the past. Congress was warned by experts, not to dismantle Glass Steagall.
Greenspan knew that 1920's FED policy lead into the Great Depression and doubled down on that policy anyway.
They took advantage of the lessons of history, they didn't ignore them.
MLK called this fake ignorance of history "willful stupidity".
"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."- Martin Luther King, Jr.
Ayn Rand also cited the behavior: "The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident which everybody had decided not to see." – Ayn Rand?
I proved willful stupid in chapters 4-6 of Atlas Shouts a few years ago, before I was aware of MLK's quote. I called it "The Columbo Deduction".
http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Shouts-Modern-Patriot-Action-ebook/dp/B00OLR...
It appears as though Lance and I were working on a very similar topic but with different approaches at the same time. And even used one of the same quotes. Coincidence?
THE PAST
I'll share some detailed second hand knowledge about history from the first hand individual experiences of some family members. Many people may not know or realize what happened in the past and find it enlightening. I was fortunate enough to convince some of my older family members that lived through the Great Depression to speak with me about it before they passed away. They were very hesitant to speak about it in prior attempts. However, this changed for some reason very late in their lives. Their descriptions were horrible so I can see why they didn't want to discuss it. They were not embellishing because they kept trying to leave out the graphic details which I wanted to know. The discussion at times was quite morbid and I could tell they were still holding back details. For those of you preparing for the worst you may be interested to know that bartering of physical goods in exchange for skills or services was quite often used as the means of payment. And this means of exchange was for the few who had much if anything at all. One shared recollection was about exchanging chickens for medical assistance. And this was in a good sized city. Officially during this time there was "no starvation" - Cornell 2015. This does not match the first hand accounts I received from them. And in addition their descriptions described the rationing of food as well as malnutrition and subsequent deaths from it that were quite common.
They were trying to forget the past and focus on working for a better future for the next generations. But by not openly speaking about the past they may have unknowingly been contributing to our current situation and people forgetting the past. After all how many times have we heard the saying "Those that forget the past are condemned to repeat it." This and 100's of other idioms used to be applied and repeated constantly against various situations by the older generations in my family. Because I liked to watch television I would constantly hear them say stop watching what they called the "idiot box" and go read a book or play. And they repeated them with good intentions. And with further research you will see why the older generation was wise beyond their years. I will put a few links at the bottom for anyone interested that wants to taking a deeper look.
THE PRESENT
And since everyone has forgotten how terrible it was then and we are right on the same path again many people have no idea how bad it can and likely will get. Although a real life hunger games or worse is quite possibly awaiting at the end. So most likely those that remain will gladly embrace the next "scheme" of a financial systems as a means of rescue. Last time it was the implementation of the Central Banking System. Look up the etymology of the word "scheme", commonly used in Europe with financials, and ask yourself why does most of mankind never seem to learn from the past or see the present and consequences for the future? Linear thinking? Many posts and comments here fully realize nothing good will come of it. If there are 45+ million (roughly 1 in 7) on food stamps in America alone what will be the results of a crash and loss of funds do to these families alone? And that in addition to the many others already with nutritional deficiencies and starving around the world.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/food-stamps-starting-to-fall-1409606700
THE FUTURE
I have enough knowledge of the past, present and proposed financial future to make a decision regarding these as they relate to myself and family. Additionally, I know quite a bit more but will not be allowed to disclose it and right now for good reason. Nonetheless we have no desire to go through a Great Depression or worse only to be offered some new and improved scheme like Central Banking as an alleged way out. So consider this our formal withdrawal of consent for the future financial scheme on this current path and intended future outcome. Especially when the creators of the future scheme know it doesn't need to happen like this. Therefore, the schemers creating and implementing that future scheme are now being put in the position of doing this against our free will. And hopefully enough others will eventually realize it and withdraw their consent too. This would increase the chances of creating and peacefully transitioning a future with the intent to benefit everyone.
So are we going to listen to idioms, learn from the past and take action in the present to prevent this future? Or will we be continue allow history to repeat itself again? Lance certainly gets it in his post. My apologies to Lance for any old comments of mine he found offensive under his posts.
More on cognitive dissonance under the heading "BENEFITS OF UTILIZING ALL KNOWLEDGE" in the link below.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-24/paul-craig-roberts-eroding-char...
BRAIN FUNCTION & TELEVISION
http://dspace.mit.edu/openaccess-disseminate/1721.1/96358
http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/units/2012/3/12.03.02.x.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3507158/
Ben, good stuff.
you might like:
Reversing The Edward Bernays Effect
http://www.wakingtimes.com/2015/07/23/reversing-the-edward-bernays-effect/
Thanks for the compliment and link.
BTW, "they" never had my consent. Not after age 4, anyway. Before age 4, I didn't know any better. Not sure why.
Since about .01 % of the world speculates on wine, yachts and art, and have the money to lose anyway, let's just ignore that.
A key difference between loans now and in 2008 are the interest rates available and the balance sheets of those that take them out. Last time, they were flippers with ARMs hoping to get out before the balloon payments. Now half the buyers are all cash.
As to the car loans, longer duration means lower payments, which are easier to make. And even factoring in subprimes, charge off and deliquencies for homes, cars, and credit card are at all time lows. Only farm loans showed a recent rise.
Finally, while it may be that we are at the end of an equity bull run, there's no way that equities are anywhere near all-time highs. Not on P/E, not on price to book or sales, not on Shiller. Not cheap but not crazy.
If there's a crisis in the near future, it'll have to come from somewhere else. Maybe a government debt bubble.
All bubbles involve speculation in something, yes in this case it's immigration, America has literally "charged" a 50 million person invasion, financed on it's retiree's credit card on the assumption of a return and benefit.
1920s/2000s - high inequality, high banker pay, robber barons, globalisation phase
1929/2008 - Wall Street crash
1930s/2010s - Global recession, currency wars, rising nationalism and extremism
1940s/? - Global war
It is a pity Bernanke studied the 1930s, if he had studied the 1920s he would have realised the dangers of an under-regulated Wall Street.
"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."
- Hegel
D'oh, just saw this.
didnt know it was Hegel.
I keep trying to get my girl to do Hegels, tighten that vaaaj.
... bygones...
funny how the date chart above is approaching an asymptote. the date difference between each subsequent crash is approaching zero as well... hmmmmm... Come join us for free at www.gunsgrubandgold.com all are welcome and it is free!!!! Survival links, financials, much more.
Prices and Taxes do not go up simultaneously.
By untaxing something you get more of it. Example: taxing labor makes less of it, and untaxing housing makes housing prices go up.
Taxing should land on rents. Rents can be thought of in two ways: 1) Costs above the lowest cost value. 2) Inputs that make prices go up, and those inputs are from the community at large.
Lowest cost value is if there was no skimming, or creaming off the top; skimming then makes prices go up.
Inputs of community are those things from the commons. For example, railroad barons would own land, yet inputs of laboring community drove land price up, not inputs of the barons. In New York city, some high rise buildings are untaxed, which allows price to climb. This then allows absentee owners to hold empty buildings as an investement property. But, true value of property is in its site value. The same building placed in empty Montana would be a fraction of the price.
Double Entry Credit Ledgers require a fungible asset, such as land or stocks to then create the new money. This then creates a postive feedback loop, pushing prices of that asset, which then creates more private credit.
Notice that most of asset classes driven up in price include a firehose of credit creation.
A real money system, which intermediates existing money, has natural dampers in it to then prevent positive feedback, and hence false economics does not drive man into insane cycles.
In U.S a real money system would inject new money into States, or into housholds. Ths distributes money power away from government and downward in a what is a true Federal system. It would give real money power to citizens, and then allow them to have savings. Those savings can then be loaned out. Citizens will scrutinize their debtors and not engage in speculative bubbles. If they do make bad loans, then Creditor gets screwed, and it stops there...no dominoes.
Bank private credit as money has dominoes of counterparties. If Joe doesn't pay Maria and so on, loans go into default as they cannot pay the bank. The bank holds the debt instruments - not individuals.
In a real system of intermediated "wealth money" (not credit), if Joe doesn't pay Maria, then Maria is out of her savings. There is no counterparty risk, as it is not loans linked to loans. Creditors are savers who hold the debt instruments...not the damn bank.
A real money system has No bubbles on the upside in unwanted postive feedback; it has no counterparty rapid decline in accelerated debt depression. A private credit economy has a sawtooth of credit expansion, then rapid decline. Bank credit is usually aimed at what is "fungible" and can then be grabbed in a depression. The bank credit bubble action is usually a function of double entry mechanics and attendant private credit creation.
sovereignmoney.eu
(with caveats, government should not get first seigniorage. New spending must be into housholds or states first. If government needs money, they can get it through proper taxation. A pyramid of central government should be avoided - they don't get the money power. People and earth create value, and government is merely infrastructure.)
"The lessons of ignoring history are likely to be learned once again.."
You would probably be more accurate in saying the lessons of ignoring history are not likely to be learned again....since they have yet to learn them the first time
what we learn most from history is that we don't learn from history.
[edit: a paraphrase from something Hegel said]
ever.
So we tumble toward world war 3...
You can tumble toward world war 3....
I'm going to tumble toward '1984'.
Winston Churchill once said and I am paraphrasing, "America will always do the right thing but only after every other conceivable possibility has been exhausted"
I certainly hope so... Tyranny? Probably, for a while... Along with all the rest of the crap being thrown at us.
Thank goodnes that student loans weren't on that list! Good to know that some things are "safe" because they'll "have to be paid back"!
What else that is "unseen" will be "seen" in the near term???
History has no power over wishful thinking because Man lives by Hope.
probably needs to be zippier to be quotable.
HOPE LEADS TO COMPLACENCY, AND COMPLACENCY TO TYRANNY.
That's mine. I invented the phrase. It perfectly fits the paradigm of most of the Republican Party, that if we can just make it to the 2016 elections, all will be well. But the hope in the upcoming election is enough to make those who are sitting down, continue to sit down--in other words, they are complacent (no matter how bad things get in the meantime) to just wait until next November.
And that waiting is what is leading us into oblivion, vis a vis, more tyranny. Get it?
Hope is not a strategy!
-Shitlery Klinton
Here is where the next recession will start:
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/04/28/next-recession-will-start-with-this-country/
Here is why gold prices are so low:
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/07/20/dear-fed-plz-raise-gold-price/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices/
Here are some more signs of a coming recession.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record...
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Boy I must be stupid. I just ordered 3 boxes of various coloured tulip bulbs.
During the 'hunger winter (1944-45)' of WWII in the Netherlands people ate tulips and other assorted flower bulbs. There were even recipes for that. So, when TSHF you at least will have something to eat.
This time it’s vastly different, principally because of the giant size of the problems. For the first time in history an immense superpower with military bases and extensive political and economic leverage in places all over the world is in the hands of a few private money changers bent on global control. What’s more, this superpower has turned its control and tentacles against its own people using space-age surveillance to watch and control them in their daily lives and to create law to punish them and exploit their estates.
Unique in the world is the literal explosion in the transfer of wealth from the producing men of the greatest nation on earth to the wasters, criminals and parasites in payment for their shameless support of the tyrants.
There has never been in America's history a Congress so completely in the hands of an international banking cartel; there has never been in America's past this swiftness of the acceleration of debt, nor the loss of personal freedoms of the American people, nor the nearly complete takeover of the media operating it like a thousand sock puppets to mask the voice of America's patriots and builders.
The excesses of corruption at the highest levels throughout America's Executive Branch and her courts from the lowest appeals court to the U.S. Supreme Court have made them vehicles of legal plunder and injustice.
If the country were a locomotive, it would now be headed downhill at a steadily increasing speed, unlike in any period in the history of the United States. And with the Federal Reserve as engineer, it is taking the world down with it.
When wil we ever learn, a question for a while now.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Eyof5doUFzk
No, human beings never change course until the path they are on becomes too hard to endure; then they change course, often times too late.
Fact.
SH
Indeed, when will we ever learn?
When will the world's people march on the traitors in all govts?
When will the world's people finally get sick and farking tires of the shittyest shit show ever, and all the stupid evil shit that goes on day after day? Take that lying evil corrupted council of rome lackey hellery clinten for a good example of shit and lying combined to form a pile of excrement that no one should tolerate. And that evil thing wants to be president? What a load of shit! Who's it's allegiance to? The council, or America and her People?
When will enough of this horsewash be enuff?
Will it be the lesson from being too stupid and careless that is the death of ALL?
Why can't the world's people march on the banksters that cause all the evil mayhem and murders in the world?
Will the world's people stand idly by on the train track as the train approaches at a hundred gazillon kilometres per hour and not get off it?
How long will the shit show continue?
From the most beautiful bless'ed garden of goodness and love comes such awesome and nutritious foods. What if everybody had a garden and fairly traded amongst themselves. Would the banksters that cause wars, false flag events, and pit stupid puppet countries against other countries for profits, death, destruction, and the constant never ending murder of innocents, even be needed?
Uhhhh...nope!
When will we ever learn?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lroU7apzma8
Tulips!
The future is in TULIPS!
GONNA BUY ME SOME TULIP FUTURES!
Why are all these topics showing up on Fox Business? Is there a connection of which we are not aware?
if it is a bubble you are correct but, perhaps its an inflationary depression.