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According To One Veteran FX Trader, "Greece Is Playing It Correctly"
Some interesting, and contrarian, observations from former FX trader and fund manager, and current Bloomberg commentator, Richard Breslow on Greece - which for all the bashing, may be doing just what it is supposed to be doing.
From Breslow:
Greece Has More Friends Than You Think
As frustrating as trading the EUR has been over the last four months, traders in fact are the lucky ones. We can play the range. We can stop out, improve our average, buy options protection or change our minds. We can go trade something that is easier at the moment and decide to come back to the EUR later.
Most of Europe has no such luxury. They are stuck in the trade. They are stuck with unemployment rates that are destroying their social fabric. They are stuck with aggregated euro-zone numbers that hide a recession in Finland or a depression in Greece. Every time the EUR rallies, true economic recovery remains merely a projection on an economist’s drawing board. The only way to save the EUR is to devalue it. Everyone is trying in their own way to tell the Germans this reality. So far with little effect
Economist after Nobel-winning economist apoplectically argue that the conditions being imposed on Greece are unrealistic (how’s that for being diplomatic.) What is playing out is a charade. Most Europeans and the IMF know this as well. Marek Belka in the Sunday Telegraph offered the politician’s solution of dealing with debt relief, "I would call it a debt reprofiling, rather than debt relief which is the same but sounds better and politically more acceptable." He did go on to agree that "Either way, I think at one point sooner or later Greece needs it."
Greece is playing it correctly. Agree to everything. Give Germany no excuse to do what they want. Get the money. This is why France, among others, want this all agreed as quickly as possible, because they know this deal is not how it will end, but an end that keeps the EUR together must be found. The Germans know it too. They also know that they have been had and it is their own fault.
Too many times in post French Revolution European history, they have opted for injustice over what they perceived as disorder. But Greece is no revolution, yet. It is a long series of mistakes by many actors across the continent and the viable solution won’t be found here without an admission of mutual culpability.
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Here comes the Quadriga, a Keynesian Yugo full of dildos drawn by four Unicorns. ;-)
Looney
Playing it correctly = Put on the lipstick and makeup, go downtown, bend over, agree to everything... get the money.
What a load of BS! The solution for a bankrupt country that cannot pay the interest on its debt is to play nice to Germany and take on more debt? And this is supposed to end well?
Without the German powerhouse keeping the show together there would be no euro. But it is the nature of this same powerhouse that will ensure the end of the euro eventually.
The sooner the end comes the better for everybody! (except the banskers!)
The banks are out of money, and the economy is dead in the water.
What are they playing well, and how could this continue for more that a few weeks?
Total BS. It'd be one thing if Greece got to keep the money, but 90%+ of it goes immediately back out the door while they continue to suffer. WTF?
"The solution for a bankrupt country that cannot pay the interest on its debt is to play nice to Germany and take on more debt?"
Cross ref: US debt ceiling, 2008 crisis etc etc. Yes, the solution is always MOAR DEBT.
"Agree to everything. Give Germany no excuse to do what they want. Get the money."
This would be a viable strategy provided Greece had room to implement it. The Greek social fabric is fraying. The depression-era unemployment levels and rising poverty seen over the last five years are worsening further due to capital controls and a three-weeks long shutdown of the banking system.
how about send all the unemployed to Germany? It will be a win-win...
I love it when a clueless Merikan feels like patronizing the Europeans on economy and public policy. Detroit or West Philly anybody? Real unemployment rate in the US anybody (not the fabricated one)? Work force participation rate?
GFY
Don't sweat it. America is forcing through an economic union with Mexico and Canada which will ultimately include a unified currency. The fact that it doesn't really work, as evidenced by events in Europe; is beside the point.
Well, they are hoping it will never end. I think they agree with you on what the end looks like so they are just trying to avoid it.
Agree to bend over, get the money up front, then run.
But if they can get the Germans to hand over the money first then they won't have to even bend over, so it remains to be seen if the Germans will fall for that old trick or not.
I think the Germans are experienced enough in this type of transaction to know never to hand over the money beforehand.
How much? OK, turn around, bend over, spread, greece up,... u know the "drill" ...
When the economy goes, everything goes... read numerous prophecies about Barack Obama and what will soon go down in America...
http://revelation12.ca
He boiled for your sins!
Repent! Repent!
Use moar Parmesan !!
http://www.venganza.org/
We Ziti-ans never get a mention.
Zitianism is the way to go if you find Spaghettism a bit too thin in the eschatology department.
"We're better because we're baked." TM
Half-baked heresy!
Greece will have to agree to more austerity and more restrictions:
Economic Warfare: Troika “Bandits” Want More from Greece
By Stephen Lendman Global Research, July 28, 2015On Friday, the IMF said about 16.5 billion euros still to disburse under an existing agreement with Athens is now outdated, according to theFinancial Times. They’re off the table.
It explained “negotiations between Athens and the IMF could take months. But the decision to pursue a new IMF programme means eurozone leaders may have to open talks on granting Greece significant debt relief much earlier than originally anticipated, since the IMF will not sign on to a new programme unless eurozone lenders agree to restructure their bailout loans.”
“That could lead to political difficulties in Germany, which has fiercely resisted writedowns to levels the IMF has been demanding.”
On Sunday, the FT said Troika officials want greater access to Greek ministries than apparently agreed to earlier. They sent lower-level negotiators to Athens instead of top ones SYRIZA expected.
According to the FT, it’s “the latest sign of concern among Greece’s creditors that, despite the summit agreement two weeks ago to restart talks, there remain deep differences on the way forward that could still derail negotiations before anAugust 20 deadline.”
They’re raising the bar. They want more – additional pounds of flesh before agreeing to release bailout funds.
Greek concessions so far were prerequisites to begin new talks – as well as getting a 7 billion euro bridge loan so its banks could hand most of it back to the ECB and IMF in debt service.
Troika officials now say Greek parliamentarians must legislate further “reforms,” according to the FT. Disbursing bailout funds depends on agreeing to even stiffer austerity and other demands than already.
Get the money now, default later. Sounds like a plan (that is doomed).
Playing it correctly = government spend irresponsibly, borrow to spend even more irresponsibly, then refuse to pay back what you borrowed. Repeat every 20 years.
Why work for a living when you can borrow then refuse to pay back?!?!?!
Same with the U.S. Living within one's means is SOoooooo old school.
Tspiras did what he did for one reason and one reason only - he did not want to take responsibility, and apparently neither do the Greek people in general FUK them all.
Greece will AGREE to anything....but they will also take the free money...and not do anything different...just because you agree to something does not mean you do it....but the cash will be transfered...so the Socialism can go on for another month or two..then beg again...agree to more things..get more free money....and so it goes..
And so everything goes to hell when you agree to something, but do not mean to do it. It's called hypocrisy and will soon become ILLEGAL.
There is no such thing as illegal when talking about the actions of a nation. Treaties are gentleman's agreements that are only in force until doing so becomes inconvenient for one or both parties. Pain of leaving vs. the pain of staying and all that.
The math was always there that said any loans were a terrible idea long term. We've now arrived, and math is once again reasserting itself. Any influx of cash will have a smaller and smaller effect, and serves only to keep the entire system solvent. Time is rapidly running out in the EU with rampant unemployment in many member nations and unsustainable levels of debt. It will all blow up, but the banksters have amazed me and have done a masterful job of keeping all the plates spinning.
It's no different here in the US or anywhere else really. The worst kinds of debt everywhere you look.
The truth can usually be found somewhere in the midst of the lies.
1. Greece was considering setting up a parallel currency.
This is probably true. There are too many reports from the insiders in Greece crying out "WTF?!"
2. Russia refused Greece's request to fund the printing of new currency.
This is true as well and was reported from both Russian and Greek sources. I would assume also that China is likely involved in this game as well. China has firmly established itself by its actions as being part of this new trading bloc.
3. China is in the midst of its own financial crisis and this is the reason for it's sudden dumping of UST and FX reserves.
There is a currency swap agreement in place between the ECB and PBOC, but none between the Federal Reserve and the PBOC. There is also the Chiang Mai swap lines, which exist in agreement but may not have been yet used. It has a potential value of 240 billion. China also has swap lines with 32 individual central banks worth over 300 billion. Russia and China have a currency swap arrangment.
It's painfully easy enough to see the awesome power of combined currency swap lines directed at a falling market. What we didn't see is this raw intervention pattern early on in the recent China plunge. So, there is some evidence that this fall was allowed if not contrived to some extent.
If there were truly a hot financial war playing out at this time (there is) it seems that as a matter of strategy it would be best not to deliberately draw the negative attention of the biggest market player and playground bully (the US) by suddenly dropping a buttload of US sovereign debt in a disrespectful and disorderly manner. However, such a move might be overlooked in a financial "emergency". Did China really have no other choice? They seemed flush enough to purchase a buttload of gold bullion quite recently.
Meanwhile back on Gilligan's Island (Greece): I think that Tsipras got played rather badly by Russia and China. Promises were made of shiny new pipelines, hookers playing golden bezoukis, blow and whatever else was necessary to reel Tsipras in. However, Greece is much more valuable to China and Russia as a financial trojan horse against the EU and the US. Every time the ECB and IMF touch Greece the financial poison continues to spreads.
The only way out now is not for the EU to kick Greece out, but for Germany to leave the EU. The EU is a matter of national pride for Germany. Germany won't ever leave the EU. It's like that monkey that wouldn't open his paw to let go of the shiny bauble to escape the trap.
Quoting the financial-philosopher comedian Bernanke, "This...um...er...uh.... will be very disorderly".
My dear youngman, you may be young, but you are indeed astute. Its nice to read common sense, it is indeed rare here.
You will no doubt when old, be very wise; alas, I will not be of this ghastly world to hear your wisedom.
Bravo!
Breslow's view is naive and uneducated: Greece is not getting any money. Not really. All the money is only destined to repay the creditors plus interest and to stabilize the banks in Greece. Hence it all is about the financial system and not about Greece and it's population. Therefore there is nothing to gain from this "rescue" for Greece and the social instability will continue to increase. For the Greek population the situation will more and more become like a disease that needs to be eliminated and therefore som kind of revolutionary action is likely to be expected.
"Playing it correctly" as the pensioners starve and the hospitals collapse.
Coming to the rest of Europe and the U.S. because it is a system of lies.
Varfak and his six months' babble was kindergarten game theory. The best negotiating tactic is to shut the fuck up.
What's a Quadriga? Four dumb animals and Lagarde playing a bint on a chariot.
Greece has many friends, and only four enemies. Lessons have been learned. It will be different, next time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA6IEH3xsPU
I think he's half right...he would probably "win" again because at this point most Americans seem to realize it just keeps getting worse and they are confused in believing it's because the "new guy" (or girl next time) was EVEN worse than the last. So idiot logic dictates..."stop having "new guys" and things "won't get worse".
Of course what appears to be "worse" is just the continuity of agenda that shows without a doubt that it doesn't matter who you elect, because they were selected by those who the "agenda" serves way ahead of time.
Is the applause canned? It sounds like an American response. Do the folk in Africa scream like that? Somehow, I don't think so.
Next time and there will be a next time Greece pleads for a bail out they need to remember how they got to this point - and do the EXACT opposite.
"and current Bloomberg commentator"
browser back button {click}
I love reading people who take a long term view and can speak of post French revolution European history...problem is, for an additional 100 years after it, there was no Germany and the Germany that was known back then, was dissolved in 1945...A technicality that I guess is not very important nowadays, is it?
30 trillion of hot money is the only game in town.
All the rest is distraction. Greece is distraction UNLESS it triggers WEIMAR dreams of "shit money" to those holding hot money!
SO....if the name of the game is to save 30 trillion of Oligarchy wealth, how does the powder trail from Greece's collapse, or from China's stock collapse, lead to the safe havens of Cameron's City or America's Caymen run offshore territory? The home of 30 trillion of ill gotten wealth.
You sleep and the banksta bleeds CB print at ZIRP to make you rich and park it in Cayman land on your number account. So Simple! And he gets his bonus and the debt burden of nations gets worse!
That is the KE<y to understanding what's going on.
All roads lead to HOT MONEY ROME and every powder trail that blows up ONE keg can bring down the whole systemic show.
Is Varoufakis the farting barbarian at the gate? Is it the Chinese PM ? Is it Putin? Is it the Ayatollah of Iran?
We find a new powder keg ready to blow up every day. It could be anywhere and it could go viral !
Nowhere to run nowhere to hide and the MSM say the UK economy is on a roll. Why?
It belongs moar and moar to the Oligarchs, less and less to the destitute 99% !
Simple Arithmetic DAT !
And hot money is a decoy, feel lost yet?
Admit mutual culpability? Culpability means blame that is deserved! Hahaha! Go on youtube and look up every political apology and if there is any acceptance of blameworthiness at all, there is always a "but" immediately followed by some justification (a rebutall to the effect that blame it is not deserved). Mistakes will always be denied, distorted, acknowledged then discarded in that order. But true acceptance of culpability cannot and will not ever be experienced by let alone uttered by these narcissists. It is a mental impossibility. It takes wars (think WWII) to establish governments that accept culpability. Even those don't last (think Japan).
zerohedge @zerohedge 3m3 minutes ago
ECB APPROVES GREEK PROPOSALS FOR BOURSE REOPEN: ASE SPOKESWOMAN
ECB APPROVES Slave Colony's PROPOSALS FOR BOURSE REOPEN: ASE SPOKESWOMAN
There fixed it for you
The economic consequences of this monetary disorganization followed hard upon it, but the deeper-lying destruction of social morale and its effects were manifested less immediately.
The whole world system heretofore had been sustained by the general good behavior of common men, by the honesty and punctuality of clerks, workers of every sort, traders, professional men.
General security depended upon habitual decent behaviour in the street and on the countryside. But the common man behaved well because he had faith that his pay was a safe, if sometimes a scanty, assurance of a certain comfort and dignity in his life. He imagined an implicit bargain between himself and society that he should be given employment and security in exchange for his law-abiding subordination, and that society would keep faith with his savings.
He assumed that the governments would stand by the money they issued and see that it gave him the satisfactions it promised him. He was not a good boy for nothing. Nobody is.
But now in various terms and phrases all over the world millions of men and women were asking themselves whether it “paid” to be industrious, skilful and law-abiding. The cement of confidence in the social fabric from 1918 onward was more and more plainly decaying and changing to dust.
HG WELLS - SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME
And come they came.
A lot of sound and fury to deny the obvious fact that the Greek Banks and State is hopelessly bankrupt with the Euro.
How long before the other PIIGS run out of accounting tricks to hide the same situation?
Hows yesterday sound?
unbridled self interest leads to self destruction. the zionazis can't help themselves.
"Get the money"? They are not getting any money....its going right back to the institutions. What a crock of shit this piece is.
Unfuck Greece
Well if Greece has more friends than is thought, they aren't very good friends, they've bolted like the non-friends.
Greece has nobody. The only so called friends that Greece has, are the same communistic/socialistic morons that want what the communists want in Greece. More money, for free!
These are not friends, these are exploiters.
THERE ARE NO FRIENDS IN POLITICS ONLY TEMPORARY MUTUALLY BENEFITIAL ALLIANCES!
I suggest Richard Breslow read Machiavelli's The Prince, or better yet, watch the better version of Game of Thrones, BBC's 1976 series, I, Claudius.
The whole Greek debacle is not about Greece ... its about Spain Italy and Frane (and few other little countires). The Euro has failed and Germans are the only economy with a positive cash flow to foot the bill. The odious debt is not just in Greece it's everywhere, and the only way to get rid of it is to destroy the Euro. But the Germans don't want to go down with the ship. The Euro is dead, long live the Neue Deutsche Mark.
One veteran FX trader bullshit.
Next.
Exactly what one would expect from a 'veteran FX trader', bullshit.... kick that damn can until it crunches into the wall and then keep kicking until you die trying to kick it anymore, as that wall hurts and breaks human bones, not that it matters to a 'veteran FXtrader'.
Bullshit? Well, yes and no, because kicking the can keeps the FX game going a little longer which enables 'veteran FX traders' time to prepare for the 'revolution'... one meme at a time please... and what color is this revolution???
And no, because the shit that exits from bulls can be dried and put to good use as manure, something the rest of our debt based global ponzi economies cannot do.... its value is like Fukushima's just now.... anyone want to live there?
Another dishonest article, telling us that it is smart for Greece to agree to everything and 'get the money' , WHAT MONEY ? it all goes back to Germany et all.
The net effects of this agreement is recession, poverty, unemployment and lower GDP, 'get the money' advice actually means 'get peanuts' for the loss of your house while we get rich with a permanently unstable Euro offering us good trading opportunities ...
https://www.facebook.com/rbcap/videos/444363085748308/
Nobody seems to have any idea what is money anymore.
Some say only gold is real.
Others point out that fiat or whatever paper money is still used by everyone for everything.
The game will be over when enough people have a lot of money and stop working or producing.
But we do not see anyone becoming richer, except for the 0.01%.
All other members of the working class are actually getting poorer.
So, the game can go on.
Some try to stop the game by pushing for reforms. Asking people with normal life to give up that normal life and start paying back the printed papers with harder work and life.
Others refuse and say continue printing more money. And simply cut the old debt.
I fully agree with the later, the system is working very well so far. I don't see the collapse coming. I don't see the end point. This is the best economy. Look at the U.S. And European Charts.
The end will sure come if you stop printing more money.
If you continue printing money, you have to either increase the zeros on balance sheets or simply cut them off with a hair cut.
In light of the position that Greece has now put itself in
they should take all the money they possibly can,
rathole it away out of harm--then declare total
bankruptcy, get out of the EU and Eurozone, then
renationalize all of the People's assets that the
Fourth Reich cabal is in process of stealing
and start again from scratch.