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US Economic & Consumer Confidence Plunges To 10-Month Lows As "Hope" Crashes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Conference Board just reported that US Consumer Confidence, having bounced in June, has collapsed in July (and saw the bounce revised drastically lower). At 90.9, this is the lowest since September 2014 and is below the lowest economist estimate. More worrying is the crash in "hope" - as consumer expectations plunge from 92.8 to 79.9 (lowest since Feb 2014). This should not be a surprise since Gallup has been indicating fading confidence in its weekly survey for a while. 57% of Americans believe the US economy is "getting worse," which has left Gallup's Economic Confidence Index tumbling to its lowest in 10 months.

Confidence plunges...

 

Driven by a collapse in Hope...

 

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index continued its gradual, downward slide, reaching -14 for the week ending July 26. This represents a 10-month low for the index.

 

Meanwhile, 39% of Americans said the economy is "getting better," while 57% said it is "getting worse."


As Gallup concludes, the findings are rather ominous...

Though Americans' confidence in the national economy has skewed negative for six months now, the recent drop of the current conditions component comes on the heels of a new path for solving the Greek debt crisis and amid a tumultuous period for Chinese stocks. The instability abroad could be fueling Americans' doubts about the health of the U.S. economy, not to mention that the Dow closed lower several days in a row last week.

*  *  *

This is not good news for stocks...

 

Or more clearly...

 

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Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:13 | 6362667 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Yellen raising rates in September will fix everything

The Audacity Of Hope Meets The Veracity Of Data

 If you plug in real inflation then GDP was 8.9% lower in 2014

Just look at how we fix inflation:

Chapwood Index shows real inflation in US.

In 2014, it was 9.7% - 1212% of official US inflation (0.8%)

http://www.chapwoodindex.com/

The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.


Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:16 | 6362716 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

20__?

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:28 | 6362772 realmoney2015
realmoney2015's picture

39% say it's getting better???

Who are these people? They must not be working class. t's hard to see your wages reamin the same. While rent and groceries skyrocket.

So are these people upper class and detatched from the real world and dont have mortgages? No, we know that the upper class is much more narrow club. These are most likely the detached lower class people that are getting monthly checks from the government. Their rents don't go up becasue they get government housing.

39% will be in for a rude awakening someday soon.

 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:47 | 6362856 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Probably mostly people who own their homes and have a significant 401k. Both are rising at 10-20% / year.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:51 | 6362868 BiPolarFrenchman
BiPolarFrenchman's picture

These polls are all worthless anyhow.  Who are they calling?  People with home phone lines?  So what's that, only the 45+ crowd, 39% of which are on the goverment dole?  

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:52 | 6362873 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Those Obamacare premiums and deductibles are punishing.

Makes sense they floated hope then bent us over a splintery log.

Lather, rinse, repeat.  All hail the New Rome!

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:11 | 6362680 pods
pods's picture

Things in the real world suck ass. I went to Home Depot Friday to get a chalk line. There was a shooting in the store.  Guy came in with an AK and started firing rounds off. One after another. Dumped 3 mags.  Then he noticed there wasn't anyone around to shoot so he left.

pods

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:56 | 6362884 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Home Depot hires a lot of ex-military.  They probably let him go so he returned the favor by shooting up some inventory.

Was it the lighting aisle or the paint aisle?  As long as he wasn't shooting up the plants.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 11:48 | 6363082 knukles
knukles's picture

God forfucking bid he'd shoot up a plant.  He did that then the next year's worth of Op-Eds in the NYT would be about Saving the Plants.  That or the Heroics of Catylin (or howeveerrthefuckitsspelled) and Single Sex Restrooms for the Mentally Retarded and Underprivileged.
Aaaaaarrarararagagagaggahhh!

Oh shit man, I'd best just take the day off and go golfing or something, way too early for such cynicism.  Otherwise might not donate a kidney to an Ethiopian Ebola sufferer. 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:14 | 6362696 CHC
CHC's picture

I don't have any faith in Consumer Confidence points but I am still surprised that only 57% of Americans think this economy is getting worse.  Well - maybe I'm not now that I'm thinking about it since a whole lot of Americans are either brain-dead, drug addicts, prescription pill abusers, alcoholics or have transplanted Face Book, Instagram and Twitter with their own brain cells.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:17 | 6362726 vq1
vq1's picture

I think alot of people blame themselves for their economic situation. We all kind of look around at eachother and say, "you good? you good? Im good." 

Lots of local biz boarded up, but new residential skyscrappers larger than the empire state building going up. Lots of homeless, but lots of exotic cars. 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:29 | 6362776 toady
toady's picture

Drug addicts and prescription drug abusers are the same group of people. Let's not start breaking them up into new groups. I have a hard enough time remembering high yellow and dark blue.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:40 | 6362824 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

That would be "Blue Gum" if you understand the metric...

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 11:28 | 6363019 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Drug addicts and prescription drug abusers are the same group of people.

 

Alcoholics too.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:15 | 6362708 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Another government indicator to brighten up the day with amazing information.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:16 | 6362714 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

FUCK YOU, CONFERENCE BOARD!!!!  BASTARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:18 | 6362731 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

It's a really good thing we have these statistics.  This also in, polls show 65% of the population believes we should outlaw free speech and web sites that have negative content should be banned. 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:22 | 6362752 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Don't worry, Trump will save us........ Lol

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:28 | 6362753 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Where's the wall street pump-n-dumper mark to market with his predKition of how the June rate rise was baked in? LOL.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:24 | 6362754 no1ninja
no1ninja's picture

...and the chance of a rate hike just went to nill. 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:30 | 6362777 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Can there be less than nil?

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:32 | 6362787 B2u
B2u's picture

Nope.  The FED has created a huge misallocation and needs to stop companies from stock buy-backs.  Organic growth is needed and once interest rates are increased the companies with strong plans will thrive and the weaked companies will fade away.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:57 | 6362897 venturen
venturen's picture

how about just paying savers for their money instead of stealing it for criminal stock traders and crooked bankers!

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 11:31 | 6363031 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

The chance for a rate hike has been nil since at least QE 1.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:32 | 6362786 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

MW proclaiming big problems with gold on their site right now... problem is, oil is taking a bigger beating.  Always the attempts by the brainwashed keynesian robots to parrot misinformation regarding phyz, bitches.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:39 | 6362820 Racer
Racer's picture

a new path for solving the Greek debt crisis and amid a tumultuous period for Chinese stocks. The instability abroad could be fueling Americans' doubts about the health of the U.S. economy,

Since when did any US sheeple know where Greece and China are on the globe?

 

 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:41 | 6362828 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Looks like hope/confidence needs some double/triple seasonal adjustments to make them fit the official narrative.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:51 | 6362867 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I got on the hopium bandwagon when hopecaine was causing my nose to bleed all the time.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 10:56 | 6362892 venturen
venturen's picture

Don't they know...Obama thinks he is a good president...he said so 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 11:34 | 6363043 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Jesus, Tyler. Yesterday's post on the Dallas Fed was all about how hopium doesn't matter.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 12:04 | 6363183 Madcow
Madcow's picture

All goverenments can do now is lie and try and trick people into believing in the future - so the bankers can steal their money 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 12:04 | 6363184 Madcow
Madcow's picture

All goverenments can do now is lie and try and trick people into believing in the future - so the bankers can steal their money 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 12:06 | 6363191 PrimalScream
PrimalScream's picture

"Was it the lighting aisle or the paint aisle?  As long as he wasn't shooting up the plants."

 

I agree. The Garden Center needs metal detectors and armed guards.

To h*ll with the plumbing supplies.  Who buys all of those pieces of plastic tubing anyway??!!

 

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