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Crude Surges After Surprise Inventory Draw, Biggest Production Decline Since 2013

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Total US crude production slumped over 1.5% last week - the biggest decline since October 2013.

 

Add to that a considerable inventory draw of over 4.2mm barrels (against expectations of a build)...

 

and crude prices are surging.

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:42 | 6366824 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Maybe crude price inflation will force old Yeller's hand in September /s

Crude 1 year chart:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=QA

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:47 | 6366842 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

A "surge".  Alert the press....

Looks real surgey on this chart:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=QA&p=h1

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:58 | 6366892 poland spring
poland spring's picture

Good site, thank you sir.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:54 | 6367123 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Small changes for one week. The production drop is interesting and would be meaningful if maintained over a quarter. The storage drop against a 460+ million barrel reserve is a blip. This is going to be meaningless when the bill comes due, but shaving a few pennies profit today is more important than the giant butt fucking this fall......

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 13:27 | 6367558 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Imports were still 7.5mmbbl/day so this is a significant draw and may give some clues as to what producers are doing when prices drop.  All of the shale wells operate with what is called a variable choke and that means that the operators can dial back production when prices get too low.  This is exactly what my operators have done in the really bad months of March and January.  Production was cut by 35% in each of those months.  When prices ramped back up in April and May, production did as well.  I would suggest this is just showing that the US oil producers aren't as stupid as the Saudis and the gold miners are.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:42 | 6366825 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

There will be deflation...No, there will be inflation.....deflation....inflation....DEFLATION!    INFLATION!   AAAAACCCCKKKK!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:43 | 6366829 CHC
CHC's picture

Of course - put out any figures that support your cause.  Not surprised here. 

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:43 | 6366835 JC-BI
JC-BI's picture

Scientists tell us that oil is fossil-based. That''s a lie. Oil is plentiful everywhere, like water. It's a by-product of earth's core heat. Beware of scientist's lies , the many other lies they're wont to tell us.

https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2014/07/17/puzzled-scientists/

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:57 | 6366889 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

I don’t know if oil is fossilized or abiotic.  What is observable is that every known oil well tends to have a production curve. What I have not observed is old fields coming back on line as a result of reservoirs refilling.  

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:16 | 6366938 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

>What I have not observed is old fields coming back on line as a result of reservoirs refilling.  

Could happen though. Your observational window is extremely short.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 12:08 | 6367201 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Oil is not plentiful everywhere, like water.  Even fresh water itself will not be plentiful enough in the future at the rate we are depleting groundwater.  If you are against "scientific theories" why would you choose to believe the most unlikely and ridiculous thoery of all, that oil is abiotic and able to be replenished?

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:45 | 6366844 Shed Boy
Shed Boy's picture

Where is crude "surging"? WTI down by $.38 and Brent is down by $.34.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:47 | 6366850 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Click "refresh" on your browser tab.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:48 | 6366854 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yay! Higher gas prices! Sucks for me, but it's good for the eCONomy I hear.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:50 | 6366862 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

higher gas prices and higher medical costs - GDP #winning

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:59 | 6366896 saints51
saints51's picture

They will drop lower and possibly all the gains today erased by close. US economy can not take high oil prices again. It is just a shakeout.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 10:55 | 6366881 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

I think it's still going to less then $40:

 

 

Texas oil production to break records despite price slump

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/drilling-down/2015/07/texas-oil-...

 

I don't know if it will plunge to $20 like Shiller predicts but it's definitely going lower...much lower. Sadly, areas like Houston will see more massive job cuts in this field I bet.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:06 | 6366908 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

A few oil majors can cut back on production. The rest of them are loaded with debt and have no choice. The same goes for OPEC

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:02 | 6366901 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Gasoline stocks way down too. Big, big driving season. I think the whole country is on vacation.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:14 | 6366934 nakki
nakki's picture

I always love how a million barrels here 5 million barrels there move oil prices when the US uses 19-20 million a day. That's 6 hours worth of oil (4.2 million) that moves the market. 

 

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:39 | 6367052 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

It's all phoney, can't believe any statistics or charts or facts.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:43 | 6367068 silverer
silverer's picture

OK.  Great.  Now it makes sense.  The motor oil I paid $1.79 a quart for when crude was $85.00, then $4.29 a quart when crude was $54.00 a barrel, is going to cost how much now?

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 11:53 | 6367118 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Gas will cost $5/gal, insurance $10,000/yr, food at $300/wk, houses $300,000 but we will all somehow be able to pay for it all on $50,000/yr wages.

Will wages spike or assets and commodities crash? It's simply a matter of math. People cannot spend money when they don't have the money or credit to spend. Only governments can do that.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 13:40 | 6367644 Bay Area Guy
Bay Area Guy's picture

Houses at $300,000?  I'll take four of them for the price of one out here.

But I agree with the basic premise.  I have no idea how people can afford to live today.  My nieces and nephews are just starting out and even with decent salaries, they're scrimping to makes ends meet.  My wife and I comment that it's a good thing we're getting older because we wouldn't want to be just starting out now.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 12:04 | 6367180 r101958
r101958's picture

sun tzu: "Will wages spike or assets and commodities crash"

Answer: No, Yes, Yes and then no.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 12:21 | 6367245 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

Only suprise is to ZH as we been saying this is coming all year...they on other hand once again too the mainstream media view for whatever reason and still refuse to investigate eitehr the EIA & IEA data rigging...Trillon Dollar Swindle

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 12:30 | 6367292 Sam Spade
Sam Spade's picture

Interestingly, Cushing remains at just over 80% capacity.  This time last year, Cushing was at 25% capacity...

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 13:29 | 6367570 wrs1
wrs1's picture

So what do you think that means?

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