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"It Depends On What The Meaning Of The Word "Some" Is": Goldman Says Don'tt Read Too Much Into Fed Statement
When even Jon Hilsenrath is clueless what the Fed is trying to say, we go with old faithful, the company that runs the NY Fed, Goldman Sachs. Here is Jan Hatzius' take.
The statement following today's FOMC meeting made relatively few changes compared to June, and did not affect our view that the first rate hike is most likely to occur in December. The most notable change was the addition of the word "some" in the committee's description of desired progress in the labor market. Specifically, the June FOMC statement said that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates "when it has seen further improvement in the labor market" (and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to two percent). Today's statement said that rate hikes would be appropriate after "some further improvement in the labor market". This change indicates that the committee requires a smaller cumulative improvement in labor market slack before liftoff. But the new language is a small tweak and does not suggest, in our view, that Fed officials are reading recent labor market developments in a wholly different way.
So if your read of the word "some" is different from Goldman's read of the word "some", then surely drama is about to unfol,d like for example that of Jefferies economists which amusing said "Addition of word “some” into forward guidance section on further improvement in labor mkt raises question whether FOMC sees “light at the end of the tunnel” in terms of reaching full employment." So if you are currently unemployed, discuss what "some" means and you may soon have a job.
As for the rest:
Elsewhere the statement was little changed. In the opening paragraph on economic conditions, the committee upgraded its description of activity in the housing market ("additional improvement" vs "some improvement"), but left its characterization of consumer spending unchanged ("has been moderate"). A reference to stabilizing energy prices was removed. The statement also revised the discussion of utilization in the labor market. Previously the statement said underutilization "diminished somewhat" (implicitly over the intermeeting period). Today's statement said that underutilization "diminished since early this year". In our view these changes are neutral for the policy outlook.
Said otherwise, Goldman is as clueless as everyone, or at least hasn't decided what to tell Yellen her policy should be just yet.
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goldie is not clueless. they know exactly what the fed will do before the fed does. they don't ever publicly tell the truth though so it is worthless to listen to them.
We don'tt (sic) need no education....
I thought Goldman dictated Fed policy as they do ECB policy. So how can the Vampire Squid be clueless?
Maybe a bankers' split? Fuck yes!
And the entire stock market hinges on the word "some", what a farce.
What a farce is right. You wait. Come September when Yellen is cued up to speak, the whole world will be leaning in to their boob tubes waiting for every sniffle, every sigh, every whisper that comes out of her mouth. THAT is a fucking FARCE!!!!
There is no plan....and there is no backup plan.
There's nothing but the bottomless abyss....
And they all know it.
Expect to see a mass exit of all the rats from Wall Street now.
Just like after 2008 - right? /sarc
I'm still trying to figure out what the meaning of the word "don'tt" is. As far as the squid goes, I don't read too much into what they have to say. I know no matter what they're trying to fuck us.
The meaning and definition of the word "is" is always useful in cases like this.
It depends on how your definition of the word "Is" is "some" of the time. Or, "is" it the definition you use "some" of the time meaning "some" of the time "is" often how you use the term "is". "Some" find it confusing that this "is" actually all bullshit.
Got it?
They just play the game until the game plys offand fuck America if that's what pays most.
This is what Socrates was warning more than 2000 years ago
"...and you give your disciples not truth, but only the semblance of truth; they will be hearers of many things and will have learned nothing; they will appear to be omniscient and will generally know nothing; they will be tiresome company, having the show of wisdom without the reality."
ln a banana republic (no offence to bananas), words do not hold their true meaning, if a twist benefits the controllers.
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/06/justice-antonin-scalia-on-obamacare-ruling-words-no-longer-have-meaning/
Just tell us to be bullish or bearish on whatever trading instrument you deem appropriate at the moment so we can do the opposite. No reason to go into what the fuck "some" means.
I can see Xi and a few committee members sitting around a TV watching tape of Yellen next to US stock market chart.
Someone says: See: that's why we need to be a reserve currency! We freeze half the stocks, spend $100bln and get our asses kicked; this old roundeye cow mumbles nonsense and the DOW goes up $100.
I think Xi & Co. have a plan Frederick, despite the distraction of their 'farmers market'. All in good time.
December of 2016?
I reckon if a clever guy knew something other guys did not know, he would keep it a secret.
How many more 'June-for-certain' rate hike circus acts will we go through before a few stray global cows turn into a stampede outta the $USD pen...?
i just did a Google search on 'Jan Hatzius fed statement'. He's been calling for a rate hike for at least a year (all the farther back I went) and keeps pushing back the month it will occur. Just another mouthpiece making prognostications.
Goldman is telling you not to listen to what they told Yellen to say.
Now that's fucked up.
If Goldman is publicly saying they expect the first rise in December then they really expect it in either September or October, with a stronger probability
of September given that the Yellster has an opportunity to jawbone at length after that meeting.