This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Jobless Claims Tick Up, Hover Near 42 Year Lows
Initial jobless claims rose 12k last week to 267k but remains zero-interest-rate-dismissingly close to 42 year lows...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 6922 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Bullshit.
still watching the unemployment numbers closesly to see if we have lift off
old yeller
Participation rate lowest since the 1970s? Check.
Initial Claims lowest since the 1970s? Check.
Stagflation? Check. (They just lie more strenuously about the inflation rate now.)
The black version of Jimmy Carter in the White House? Check.
Hostages in Iran? Check.
I've seen this script before, but this time I think it will hurt more.
Participation rate is just trying to follow unemployment rate. Both of them are going to be zero on a long enough timeline, hedge accordingly.
BullISH! Fixed it for ya
Have companies got many workers left that they can fire?
Well, yes. IBM is bringing H1B workers from India to replace the full-time US workers they replace at 1/3 the salary. This is not to be confused with the thousands and thousands US jobs sent to India by IBM.
I think you have to have had a FT job and *not* already taken UI benefits in the past year to qualify.
So I am betting that a big part of the lows in UI claims are due to the structural shittyness of the recent employment "gains."
Just look at the FT vs. PT ratio and it explains these "40 year lows" in UI.
Part-time workers are eligible for benefits.
The specifics vary by state, but you're correct . . . as long as they meet minimum income requirements over a sufficient stretch of quarters. In MI, it's four full quarters beginning with the fifth historical quarter. If you aren't working steadily in your part-time gig over the past year or more, you cannot meet the requirements. If you can meet those, your weekly benefit will be a small amount--in MI, at minimum wage on 20 hr weeks, I'm guessing $90 per week--as will the number of weekly benefit payments you can receive, perhaps 15 weeks (program limits for everyone at 20 weeks of benefits). Once those are exhausted, you're unable to collect until a year from the day you first applied for benefits, i.e., say 15 weeks of every 52 weeks, regardless of whether you experience additional lay-offs or not.
Many don't reapply because they've exhausted their yearly benefits. Even more perhaps do not apply because they erroneously believe they don't qualify because they were part-time or temp workers. Many companies who do lay people off routinely contrive grounds for firing them, which disqualifies the unwanted worker from collecting without, at a minimum, going through a very long and difficult appeal process that they cannot afford to engage in (no payment until they win), especially when the system is heavily stacked against them. This business practice cuts claims that affect the crooked businesses' own level of required payments into the UIC system.
And, looking at workforce participation, there's a clear basis for fewer people applying because fewer are working to begin with.
It's pretty easy to show historical lows in claims when the economy now has record-setting levels of low paying, part-time and temp jobs. The stat has become genuinely useless as a measure of anything except the change in job composition/structure of the economy.
Every statistic about the US economy is now a lie as David Stockman looks at 5.5% unemployment:
At the present time, there are 210 million adult Americans between the ages of 16 and 68—to take a plausible measure of the potential work force. That amounts to 420 billion potential labor hours, if we accept the convention that all adults are at least theoretically capable of holding a full-time job (2,000 hours/year) and pulling their share of society’s need for production and work effort.
By contrast, during 2014 only 240 billion hours were actually supplied to the US economy, according to the BLS estimates. Technically, therefore, there were 180 billion unemployed labor hours, meaning that the real unemployment rate was 42.9%, not 5.5%!
Yes, we have to allow for non-working wives, students, the disabled, early retirees and coupon clippers. We also have drifters, grifters, welfare cheats, bums and people between jobs, enrolled in training programs, on sabbaticals and much else.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-warren-buffett-economy-why-its...
You forgot one. The people who WERE working because they thought they would get ahead, but just ended up providing other people with an income-stream. Like wives/mothers who wake up one day and realize that they are basically just handing over their entire paycheck to child care and taxes...Seriously, fuck THAT.
Payroll work is for losers. The FIRST priority for TPTB is to deduct THEIR CUT! Before you have even paid your bills, or put food on your table...you pay THEM for the "privilege" of laboring for peanuts...
Don't hold your breath waiting for all those folks to rush back into the job market.
And stay away from payroll jobs! It just makes it easy for them to seize your money...if they think you owe taxes, make 'em work for it. "I say I made this much...if you say different, then prove it or STFU. And no sir, my taxes are NOT automatically deducted...you're gonna have to actually WORK for a living, just like me."
Gold down, stocks up. Their tailer the news to fit their needs. Utterly disgusting group we now have!
Participation rate the lowest since 1860
ss jobs are open, take a bullet for an oligarch,, seem current crop of ss agents ain't too happy with the pols they protect..bullish for private security co's, who don't mind gestapo tactics for the masses.
Awesome news. Running out of people to file jobless claims. When they finally get them all through the system and roll them off the end, we'll have zero unemployment and nobody working. Only the government has the balls to stand up and state their policies are a success. They just have to keep fudging the numbers enough until the next election to make it look like there might be some productivity left out there. In the meantime, the golfer in chief could care less about fixing anything. Totally focused on getting globalism in place.
well said.
Meanwhile 43million on Food stamps...things are just ducky.
A FED intervention or two or three and that market is just humming along.
Carter at least tried.
Carter was an object lesson. Mess with the CIA et al and you get kneecapped.
Politicians also learned that it was far easier to simply lie about everything - stating 'All is Good' no matter how far in the crapper things were. If you get enough fools to bwlieve the lies you don't have to do anything. You saw massive changes in the way unenployment, CPI and GDP were calculated after Carter. BOTH parties are complicit in the games played.
Irrelevant.
... remains zero-interest-rate-dismissingly close to 42 year lows...
As does the percentage of people who actually have a job to lose. Go figger.