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From Grexit To Brexit?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Frank Suess via Acting-Man.com,

The British Referendum Looms

For the last couple of months (and years, for that matter) Greece has become synonymous with trouble in the euro zone and the European Union. As we’ve previously mentioned, in the absence of an extraordinary event, the risks in connection with Greece are limited.

The country contributes less than 2% to the European Union’s GDP and state institutions or institutions backed by the state now hold over 80% of the Greek debt. A debt restructuring or even a Grexit would pose neither a risk to the financial system, nor to the European economy.

 

britain and europe

David Cameron and Nigel Farage, as seen by Steve Bell

 

 

On the other hand, a British exit from the European Union, a so-called Brexit, could have a considerably stronger impact on Europe. A referendum on the subject is expected to take place before the end of 2017.

The referendum is not comparable to that of Greece, as Britain is not part of the euro zone. But the question in Britain is whether they want to remain a member of the political and economic union called the European Union or not. The link between member states and the EU is weaker than the link between the federal government and the states in the US. Nevertheless, a Brexit would be comparable

to Texas deciding to secede from the US.

 

Brexit Poll

Very recently UK citizens have become more pro EU again – this will probably change again as soon as the ECB’s recent monetary pumping exercise ends and the economic bust resumes – chart by BFI, click to enlarge.

 

Mainstream Party Lobbying

Britain is the second largest economy of the European Union and contributes around 16% to the EU’s total GDP. Losing such a large member would be a setback for the European Union and the “European political dream”. A potential Brexit would impact Britain massively, especially its financial sector.

Several banks such as HSBC, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs have already indicated that a Brexit scenario would induce them to move business or even their head offices to other locations within the EU, locations such as Frankfurt or Luxembourg.

Currently, all major political parties are lobbying against a Brexit and recent polls, (see chart above), indicate that a majority in Britain would prefer to stay within the EU. On the other side, we have EU skeptics such as Nigel Farage, the leader of the UKIP party, who was quoted saying:

“It is absolutely ludicrous that when only 10% of the entire UK GDP is exports to the EU that the other 90% of our businesses are tied up with European rules – and I think people are starting to understand that.”

 

The answer is yes

Mainstream parties lobbying for the UK to remain in the EU – what was the question?

Cartoon by Steve Bell

 

We think the quote sums up the sentiment of the anti-EU side well. They are aware of the benefits the EU membership provides, however, in their view the bureaucracy and over-regulation has gotten out of hand. Therefore even some pro-EU politicians are asking for reforms to the EU treaties to – among other things – increase the sovereignty of member states.

 

renegotiator

Mystic Dave, the amazing renegotiator …

Cartoon by Steve Bell

 

It is definitely too early to make assumptions about how things will unfold in Britain. But we will certainly monitor the situation and keep you updated accordingly.

 

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Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:29 | 6376066 ted41776
ted41776's picture

hey, why not have the people vote for it first?!?!? bwahahahahhaahhahaha

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:38 | 6376087 SMG
SMG's picture

The Oligarchs would NEVER let England leave.  Vote rigging, threats, whatever it would take.  The EU is too important to their NWO plan.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:45 | 6376122 knukles
knukles's picture

Fuck the EU
 -Vickie Nuland

 

Never thought I'd sympathize with her sentiments, but in an indirect way, so be it.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:10 | 6376213 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I recall something like this being tried in Scotland and Catalonia at a national level not too long ago.  Don't remember either of them being allowed to leave.

The EU will "persuade" the Brits to stay in.  THey'll threaten them with tariffs on that 10% of their GDP going to the EU-area.  Threats to immediately call all outstanding debts the EU might hold of theirs.  Something.  They'll find a way to keep them in.  This is going nowhere fast.

What part of "irreversible" do they not understand?

 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 20:38 | 6377460 philipat
philipat's picture

"Several banks such as HSBC, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs have already indicated that a Brexit scenario would induce them to move business or even their head offices to other locations within the EU, locations such as Frankfurt or Luxembourg."

Is that a promise?

Sat, 08/01/2015 - 06:52 | 6378148 HolyfieldsOtherEar
HolyfieldsOtherEar's picture

Yes, after the Grexifixion, the EU will attempt a Brexifixion. But the only reason Cameron is leading the way to a referendum is to be sure he can scupper it. He'll use an unclear question and permit non-UK citizens resident in the UK to vote. Slippery as an eel, that one.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 03:19 | 6383949 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Scotland was thinking about leaving the United Kingdom, not the EU. Catalonia would wish to leave the Spanish national set-up, not the EU

both would be already out if they would not have to leave the EU, too, if they leave their national unity

what part of not comparable to the US do they not understand? whatever the UK does, it is not comparable with Texas and the US

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:45 | 6376123 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Maybe, no matter how hard they try, their NWO plan won't be doable.  Plan B?

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 15:04 | 6376417 loadsofmoney
loadsofmoney's picture

Correct. The vote will effectively be rigged with scare tactics. The propaganda campaign to stay in will be funded by the Taxpayer and the BBC TV licence payer. Once people are told that exit will mean losing their job, seeing the value of their home crash, mortgage rates rocketing etc.they will vote 'the right way'

 

 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 15:49 | 6376589 Phoenix901210
Phoenix901210's picture

It doesn't have to be rigged with scare tactics. If you look around for info. Both the Scots Indyref and the recent GE2015 were rigged with ACTUAL FRAUD.

 

However, there are plent of very powerful people who are against the EU and there have been previous political arguments in Britain over the EU that nearly lead to the government of the day being overthrown from within the Conservative political party. And the main rebel... David Davies, is the one who has been pressuring David Cameron this time around. 

 

Basically, even among the rich there are those that don't like the status quo and some of these politicians who intended to do good originally and have been pressured otherwise have finally stood up and said... Enough is enough.

 

The Cabal, the Illuminati, the NWO, like the Mafia, will not be able to command the same obedience when they run out of money. And they are running out of money. China, Russia, ET groups et al. have been working steadily against them for years

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:02 | 6376187 USisCorrupt
USisCorrupt's picture

And then do whatever you please and say fuck to the people, do as Greece does.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:35 | 6376085 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

How screwed up the EU is two weeks before the vote will be the decider and it's looking like it will be a turd for Brussels.....

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:37 | 6376088 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

Stay go who cares. Do you want one pile of shit or two?

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:41 | 6376102 Salah
Salah's picture

My take: UK leaves the EU. Reason: global cooling; they don't want Brussels to have any part whatsoever in their food security plans.  They remember nearly starving to death during & right after WW2.

http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/scottish-farmers-suffering-worst-summer-in...

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:43 | 6376109 libertysghost
libertysghost's picture

Off topic entirely...but Tylers...you'll like this MSM lame attempt: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/what-turns-someone-into-a...

Notice the Independent doesn't allow comments on this one, but does on some other articles.  Anyway, apparently the Independent has a conspiracy theory about conspiracy theorists going on...

These in the last hour too:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/mh370-debris-discovery-send...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/flight-mh370-wreckage-the-1...

http://www.dailyindependent.com/news/sen-cruz-takes-on-more-traditional-...

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:43 | 6376110 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

The EU should and probably will leave the EU.

And Scotland should and probably will leave the UK.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:50 | 6376121 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Does anyone give a fuck whether UK stays or leaves the EU? As long as the pedophiles are protected and the Queen gets her money and the brain-dead British sing "God save the Queen (and fuck everyone else)" all is right with this world

How Thatcher’s Government Covered Up a VIP Pedophile Ring

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/06/britain-s-horrific-vip-...

Thanks to a new 5-percent raise, Queen Elizabeth II is expected to rake in a little over $58 million in 2014 — more than Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Tony Parker combined.

http://www.thewire.com/global/2013/06/queen-england-salary/66645/

 

The Queen Nazi salute footage defended by palace after The Sun front page

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/queen-nazi-salute-footage-defen...

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:47 | 6376127 vq1
vq1's picture

misinformin' knobbers. 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:48 | 6376132 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The people will decide by force.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:50 | 6376136 DaNuts
DaNuts's picture

All the banks will leave london! Is there any reason to vote no? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBR2G-iI3-I

How will we all survive?

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:53 | 6376138 bh2
bh2's picture

"Nevertheless, a Brexit would be comparable to Texas deciding to secede from the US."

Huh? No, it would not. Texas isn't a sovereign nation. Britain is.

The only concessions for membership made by Britain are by way of a treaty agreement. Sovereign powers may terminate a treaty at any time.

However, we know what happened to Texas and other southern states when they attempted to separate from the Union.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:20 | 6376255 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

"Nevertheless, a Brexit would be comparable to Texas deciding to secede from the US..."

Could be interesting. Texas has the 11th largest economy in the world, is energy independent, is moving it's gold bullion supply back home to a Texas Depository, and most Texans are prettry well fed up with the Fed. Texans are pretty well armed too...

Sat, 08/01/2015 - 06:28 | 6378139 August
August's picture

Texas must have quite a few electrical substations. It would be a real shame if somethng happened to them.

FWIW I'm all for the dissolution of the United State of Amurica, but the US central government will stop at nothing to preserve its own existence, so ya'll better get ready for a 19th Century level of trade and industry.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:54 | 6376149 RougeUnderwriter
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Thong

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 13:56 | 6376156 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Funny - everyone scrambling in an effort to remain whole.

They seem to have a problem recognizing that 'in' or 'out' will not change the fact they do not generate enough income to pay their socialist ponzi scheme debt.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:01 | 6376163 Rastech
Rastech's picture

This issue is far bigger and far more important than finance and GDP.

 

By every definition, the EU is a lawless State (the assumption of the proven lie and despotic tyranny of "Divine Right", where "The Law is what 'we' say it is"), and as an institution it stands in absolute opposition to the fundamentals of the Rule of Law, denial of power (because nobody can be trusted with it), and any real defense of inalienable Rights, Liberties, and Freedoms.

Among so many other examples, the EU's  behaviour with Greece, confirms all of the above.

All lawless States fail (there's hasn't been a single successful one in human history). That failure is usually catastrophic, and usually accompanied by great bloodshed.

With nothing in a lawless State being worth the paper it is printed on (Laws, Treaties, Agreements, Business Contracts, etc), because they are subject to the whim, temper, or convenience of the despots, there is only one safe way of having any dealings with a lawless State.

That is to have NO DEALINGS WITH IT AT ALL!

Every member Nation of the EU needs to get out, asap, and yesterday, if not sooner, would do.

 

Bottom line, Liberty is extremely good for business. Tyranny is extremely bad for business. There will be no good business while member Nations are trapped inside the ticking time bomb that is the EU.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:10 | 6376199 Rastech
Rastech's picture

This guy had it pretty much summed up a long time ago, and the EU is doing everything opposite to this. Such is Corporate Socialism, I suppose.

 

"If people are hungry, it is because the government is taxing and interfering too much;  this is why people rebel. 

If goods and trade are free and not restrained black markets won't develop and  the people needn't be criminals.

 

When the way of nature is ignored, regulations, codes, and hypocrisy emerge. 

The people are rebellious when rulers meddle in their affairs. The more laws, the more violators. 

Therefore, that leader is best who governs least.

 

If we keep from meddling with people, they take care of themselves.

If we keep from commanding people, they behave themselves.

If we keep from preaching at people, they improve themselves.

If we keep from imposing on people, they become themselves.

The way is like an invisible hand, a spirit guide that leads without interfering.

Here is the way: set people free."

Lao-Tzu

 

PS. Like everything else in the EU, the polls bear no relation to reality, and are worthless.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:06 | 6376201 Funn3r
Funn3r's picture

I doubt that we ever would Brexit. Although I am a peasant myself I have regular contact with stratosphere executive types and they are 100 percent pro staying in, and these are people who matter so I'm sure Dave listens to them. 

Also a huge number of British have strong and durable connections with Europe, such as expensive vacation properties in Tuscany, posh parts of Spain, all that. No way are they letting go of easy access to that. 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:14 | 6376234 Rastech
Rastech's picture

People owned such properties long before EU membership of those Countries.

I have strong and durable connections with Europe. I've worked in several parts of it, and travel across it as much as I can.

I love Europe.

But I despise this criminally insane abomination that is the EU, and what it is doing to the people of Europe, with a vengeance.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:10 | 6376217 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

please use UKexit - brexit makes us think about Brazil leaving the EU.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:19 | 6376246 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

One long building factor will weight heavily on the voting public. Britain has grown used to being a destination for migrants. But, in the last two years the level of migration to Britain has exploded, as the Middle East has gone up in flames, same too for Africa. The numbers have exploded, and they are not content to reach Europe, they move north seeking only one goal, entry into the UK. Once your foot sits on UK soil, you are entitled to the full package of benefits. This is a magnet to migrants. A free apartment, a National Health Service free health care Card, a dentist for free, free education, and best of all, weekly cash paychecks to cover living expenses. There is much more in way of benefits like language training etc.

But the people of the UK are waking up to the nightmare vision of 2,000 single African males attacking the Channel Tunnel, seeking to break into Britain. The numbers crossing the Medit. Sea heading north is estimated at 1 million already in motion north to Libya, for the sea crossing. There the European Navies are picking up thousands of migrants and taking them north to Italy and Greece, for transit north to Britain.

Even the most stupid liberal in the UK is finally waking up a little. The government is being forced to build thousands of new homes for migrants, when average people no longer can afford one. Cities are swamped with single young males looking for the stupid British girls who will take them in as lovers, and allow the males to have babies and ensure a permanent stay, plus child benefit payments.

The mood is turning ugly towards Brussels, who demand that migrants be given homes, no matter the numbers or the cost. This election on EU membership is the last chance the UK has to save what is left of the nation. Either get out of the EU, or live in a multi cultural, mulit ethnic hell hole of tens of millions of migrants demanding British payments and support.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:35 | 6376309 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

Blowback from the Empire's bombs.

Sat, 08/01/2015 - 05:22 | 6378122 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

Those navies should start sinking those boats. The flow would stop really fast. Then round up every african and ship them back to their own continent. Fucking problem solved.

Sat, 08/01/2015 - 06:37 | 6378141 August
August's picture

The UK needs a shuttle service to tranship their new MENA visitors to Sweden.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 03:24 | 6383955 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

seriously?

"The mood is turning ugly towards Brussels, who demand that migrants be given homes, no matter the numbers or the cost."

that's your understanding of the situation? really?

the row between Brussels and London is about europeans in the UK, like Poles, not "single African males attacking the Channel Tunnel" or Syrians, or any non-EU citizens

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:31 | 6376288 The Count
The Count's picture

Do the Brits actually produce/manufactur anything real or is it all City of London Financial Terrorist Bull Shite ???

You want a free people? Get rid of the royals and jewish banking aristocracy... 

On this side of the pond the Rockefellers, Morgans, Kennedys and a couple other families.

 

 

 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:38 | 6376314 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

No different from the US nowadays.apart from the hubris.they offshored that.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 15:08 | 6376439 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

I had no idea the Rockefellers, Morgans, and Kennedys were Jewish. They don't look it.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 15:23 | 6376499 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

he didn't say they were.

this is two comments where your reading comprehension is shown to be faulty.

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/jew...

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 14:40 | 6376323 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Britain will not be going anywhere but deeper in the Zionist muck of the EU.

Why? The Zionist citadel of the City of London--"Zion's clitoris," as a friend of mine calls it.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_London

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 15:33 | 6376535 Dogspurt
Dogspurt's picture

 

Cameron - and the puppeteers who pull his strings - have no intention of leaving the EU. The referendum was only a successful attempt to spike the UKIP guns in advance of the general election.

Despite all of his blustering Cameron will only obtain limited concessions from the rest of the EU which he will duly claim as a personal 'triumph' to be presented and approved when the referendum is held - if it is held at all and not delayed for 'further negotiations'.

Where Cameron may trip up is if the electorate regards any referendum as a substitute general election and decide to punish the government as its' austerity policies bite with a vengence. Suddenly what was previously an electoral masterstroke might become a disaster which splits the Tory party, emboldens the tory eurosceptic faction and UKIP, as well as leaving Cameron with no alternative but to advance his planned retirement, and possibly if the government is divided enough even prompt an early election. Whatever the result, the issue of the vexed relations between the UK and the EU will smoulder on regardless.

 

 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 15:50 | 6376594 Phoenix901210
Phoenix901210's picture

The date of the referendum may have been set for June 2016

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 16:23 | 6376721 adonisdemilo
adonisdemilo's picture

All we get from the Euromeisters is petty rules, childish foot stamping, chicken-shit liberal pro-green bullshit allied to redistribution of hard earned wealth to the feckless.

They are a bunch of unelected, self appointed, self promoted wankers who write the rules that say we have to pay for their incompetence and insanity.

 

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 17:01 | 6376847 smacker
smacker's picture

As I've said for a long time, Cameron & Co will do a lot of renegotiating with the EU and will achieve very little. However whatever concessions he does get, he will big up big time and set the Stay-In campaign rolling on the back of bullsh1t. Add to that a huge corporate campaign to stay in.

The vote to pull out with wither away after losing. Nigel Farage will finally be silenced.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 17:23 | 6376903 Rough-Trader
Rough-Trader's picture

The reason I think quite a few people here are a bit sick in their head is this....no matter if you are talking about Britain, Islam, Europe, Japan, even the climate, somehow some people start talk talking about something else, I.e. Jews or the Zion.
How fucking obsessed do you need to be about the Jews. They only control you as much as you think of them. Every minute of Zionist talking you and yourself making yourself a slave of Jews. I don't think about that all the time, therefore, I'm free.
Your slavery is your own fault you fucking Jew obsessed morons. Keep your head in your ass !!!

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 17:51 | 6376979 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

Seconded. If the Jews really did control everything, how would this Iran nuclear treaty ever have happened?

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 18:14 | 6377040 smacker
smacker's picture

"They only control you as much as you think of them. Every minute of Zionist talking you and yourself making yourself a slave of Jews."

What you're saying here is that jews and zionists are a psychosomatic problem, not real. If we simply ignore them then the problem won't exist. I don't think so.

Fri, 07/31/2015 - 19:08 | 6377217 unklemunky
unklemunky's picture

Plain amd simple. Leftists do not want to work. They want others to work and then take from them. The elite leftists know they can amass enough wealth for generations and could not give a shit about the poor whining welfare slobs they portend to care so much about. All they have to do is get the Welfare rubes on board to vote themselves the ability to pick the pockets of the producing class. Fairness through taxation of course. Meanwhile, the elite political class enrich themselves via the wealth distribution " management fee" i.e. Taxes. They milk the system and skim off as much as they can while throwing crumbs to the welfare idiots until they have killed the incentive of the working class to produce and economic collapse ensues. They then blame the entire problem on "capitalism" and its unfairness and the welfare cheats nod their empty heads in agreement. When the dust settles, the elite political class are filthy rich, the entrepreneurs are either wiped out or have left and the welfare cheats are left in complete poverty with nobody to blame but themselves....because they were stupid enough to believe these marxist bastards and vote themselves into destitution under the ruse that fairness in life and economics actually exists and that you can get something for free....forever. This, is socialism. We are watching the last act play out. Can you tell who is who?

Sat, 08/01/2015 - 12:07 | 6378635 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

The biggest problem if the UK leaves the EU will not be in London, it will be in Brussels as a large chunk of annual money walks out of the door.

This will end the EU in its current form, thousands of civil servants without jobs, no money to bribe new countries or even give to the poorer current members.

The EU should be doing everything in their powers to keep us in, but they aren't. They think that brute force and threats of the unknown will work. They might as far as the opinion polls are concerned as many will say yes but vote no in the privacy of the voting booth. Just like the upturn in the last election. The Brits are getting wiser, lull the bastards into a false sense of security.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 01:00 | 6383783 onmail
onmail's picture

Mabbee UK should sell N.Ireland for 1 trillion $ & Scotland for 2 trillion to America. Anyway America can print the money free. If UK could give Diego Garcia to America why not sell N.Ireland & Scotland.

 

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