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Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable"
Earlier today, Eurostat released the two most important data points for Europe: inflation and unemployment. On the former, there was no surprise at the headline level which remained at 0.2% for the another month, in line with expectations, but core CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 1.0%, the highest print in 2015 and one which pushed Bund prices well lower.
But it was the unemployment number which showed something unexpected. While the overall unemployment rate for the Eurozone also stayed unchanged at 11.1%, fractionally worse then the consensus estimate of a decline to 11.0%...
... it was renewed concern about what is going on in Italy, where unemployment rose from 12.5% to 12.7%, proving consensus expectations about a strong improvement to 12.3% dead wrong...
... and posing a question just what is going on in the country with the biggest debt load in Europe, and more importantly how is it that Rome is still unable to benefit from the ECB's QE which has pushed Italian yields far below those of the US despite an economy which is suddenly taking on water.
And nowhere was this more visible than in Italy's youth unemployment rate, which surprisingly jumped by nearly 2% to 44.2%, a record level, and one which is starting to rival some of Europe's most troubled nations, such as Spain and of course Greece.
As Bloomberg put it, "Italy’s jobless rate unexpectedly rose in June as businesses continue to dismiss workers amid concerns that the country’s exit from recession may not be sustainable. Youth unemployment jumped to a record-high 44.2 percent.
Unemployment increased to 12.7 percent from a revised 12.5 percent in May, statistics agency Istat said in a preliminary report in Rome on Friday. The median estimate in a survey of nine analysts called for a rate of 12.3 percent.
Youth unemployment in June rose to the highest rate since the series began in 2004, from 42.4 percent in May. Employment dropped for a second month in a row, with about 22,000 jobs lost in June alone, according to the report.
In an indicative case study that not all is well in Italy, Bloomberg reminds us that Telecom Italia SpA said this month it plans to eliminate 1,700 jobs, representing about 3 percent of its workforce, and is delaying a youth-hiring program as Italy’s biggest phone company seeks to reduce labor costs.
Put in context, joblessness in Italy, the euro area’s third-largest economy, has been at 12% or above for more than two years as the record slump deepened before gross domestic product started to rise again at the end of 2014."
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund said in a report that "without a significant pick-up in growth," it would take Italy “nearly 20 years to reduce the unemployment rate to pre-crisis” levels of about half the current one.
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s changes to Italy’s labor code showed early results as the number of open-ended contracts taking effect in the first half increased, the government said. Still, executives’ confidence declined this month amid doubts on the outlook for economic recovery and employment.
How long before Italy's repeat-disgruntled youth realizes it was duped once again, and Beppe Grillo emerges on the Italian scene with renewed vigor, and the Greek tragicomedy gets a sequel in the old, Roman style?
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draghi is pleased
Italy = the next domino
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2015/07/imf-italian-aka-next-domino-job-ga...
Fascism will return to Europe soon.
Russia will invade.
The nukes will fly
And global warming will no longer be a problem.
Well, except for the high radiation areas.
the first two sentences are the wet dream of Dr. Krugman
I always through it would be fun to watch someone explain the concept of "substitution" to Krugman.
Italy and Spain are among the worst sufferers of aging demographics. In other words there aren't enough young people to support the aging population. The response is to put all the young people out of work. Isn't Socialism a wonderful thing?
Welcome to socialism, kiddies. Enjoy.
Forward!...
(Now lets go "protest," having the gubmint pass laws that drive more companies out of the country, sending them to employment friendly countries.)
You know, Italy just needs another 100,000,000,000 African invaders to, you know, do the job that Italians won't.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=066_1435220223
hits from the bong
Amateurs. In Spain we have 50% youth unemployment.
There should be a prize for that.
BTW, sorry about the whole Catalonian independence thing not working out. That sucks.
Yup, there isn't enought support for independence yet. 45-50%, same as in Scotland.
It was planned that way, it's Hotel California..........at least your still having elections.
thx i was wondering about spains absence from that chart. keeping the averages down?
It's 3 rows up from Italy. I thought it was alphabetical at first, but it's not.
second from the right
See why we never agree on anything? I see it as 3 rows up from Italy, you see it as two rows from the right. My guess is that you are looking at the other chart, which would explain a lot.
:-) I was referring to the graph, you were referring to the table beneath it
Tyler: "...more importantly how is it that Rome is still unable to benefit from the ECB's QE which has pushed Italian yields far below those of the US despite an economy which is suddenly taking on water. "
here, for example, I disagree with Tyler. lower yields are the main benefit of the ECB's QE
further, 80% of the "ECB's QE" is done by the national banks, meaning that it's BankItalia that is buying up the lion share that Italian bond market, and so pushing yields lower, which then results in less burden for the Italian state's budget
You go for the pretty bar graph, I go straight for the underlying data. I think that may say something about us, beyond the fact that we'll never be on the same page.
in my defense, I go often over that table and similar ones
btw, Tyler also writes "Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable"", but he forgot to mention that the Italian GDP is rising again
you remind me our collegue "Haus Targaryen". why do you think we'll never be on the same page? Am I too... Austrian School?
it's a 0 point something raise courtesy of low oil and gas and low eurusd.. as long as these cycles point up again italian GDP will sink again.. (not to mention the new GDP way of counting introduced recently - aka fake data)
No.
The 49.2% Spanish number is displayed beside the Greek and Irish percentages in the same chart.
Amateurs. In Spain we have 50% youth unemployment.
lol
What'sa matter you, hey, gotta no respect
Whatta you tink you do, why you looka so sad
Itsa not so bad, Itsa nice-a place, Ahh shaddupa you face
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFacWGBJ_cs
Super Mario, is that you?
Time to bury the zionist WTO and rebuild sovereign nations.
Always amazing to hear when "experts" are surprised that things aren't getting better when the problem wasn't fixed in the first place.
Mechanic: "Your ignition coil is shot. That's why the car won't start."
Economist: "OK. I'm going to put some more gas in the tank and check on it again tomorrow. My expectation is that the car will start then."
And put moar air in the tires if that doesn't work..
And yet the pope is still calling for people to have more kids.
They'll be needed in the coming war effort.
How do you say, "Summer of rekovery" in Italian?
I just came back from a 4 week vacation in southern Italy and man...
If you're not working in tourisme over there for minimum minimum wage, you've got nothing.
There's totally nothing over there of industry and it's to hot and dry to do anything else but sit next to a parking lot asking 5 euro's a hour for tourists to park their car next to a archeological site.
Nobody works there and every city is like evacuated.
The country is beautifull but you can't live on sun alone.
The only part of italy that is economical viable is the top north of italy, and by top north I neam the top 100 miles and nothing else.
You can go to a restaurant and eat for 15 euro's, book a hotel for 70 euro's that is a 4 star hotel.
Tourisme is death over there!
95% of all restaurants and hotels are totally vacant, there's nearly no traffic on the roads, the only transports you see are food and water.
The only tourists they have is italians from the north.
Almost none of them speak english and everything is imported.
Fuck Spain! Italy is the first to go after greece.they're totally living on borrowed time over there.
All they have to do to solve their unemployment problem is stop counting people who stop looking for work.
Crime has risen quite a buit in those southern cities also due to the massive influx of MENA people.
Lol.
Crime in So. Italy never depended on imported labor. It's a vibrant indiginous industry.
Excellent – and so true.
@ Sudden Debt
Italy been in a bad ways........................long long time before 2000
Amazing how long a shit show can carry on when you can keep borrowing money
For the record, there is no minimum wage here in Italy. Italy is the only country in the EU that doesn't have a minimum wage.
With Renzi' new Jobs Act, you now see the result.
Its going to get worse. I see it every day, the economy here is slowly choaking to death.
The whole Nordics do not have minimum wage.
And how does the hordes of illegal immigrants (mostly young and male) arriving daily from third world countries help help Italy and similar EU nations? Forget the effect upon employment (only increases members of security forces), but what about the cost?
Blaming foreigners for internal problems is still the staple of right-wing extremism.
http://albainternazionale.blogspot.it/2015/07/mh370-e-il-madagascar.html
Hey, they should simply raise the minimum wage! That way unskilled/low skilled people can make a living without having to go through the time and hassle of learning valuable skills! Great for the economy! Especially when low skilled workers are replaced by robots and self service! Then low skill/ no skill workers can go on the public dole and enjoy the beach all day! Win/Win for everyone!
Some years ago a small rural town in Spain twinned with a similar town in Italy. The mayor of the Italian own visited the Spanish town.
When he saw the palatial mansion belonging to the Spanish mayor, he wondered aloud how on earth he could afford such a house.
The Spaniard replied:‘You see that bridge over there? The EU gave us a grant to construct a two-lane bridge, but by building a single lane bridge with traffic lights at either end, I could build this place.’
The following year the Spaniard visited the Italian town. He was simply amazed at the Italian mayor's house: gold taps, marble floors, diamond doorknobs, it was marvellous.
When he asked how he’d raised the money to build this incredible house, the Italian mayor said:‘You see that bridge over there?’
The Spaniard replied:‘No.’
EU is ending up like Africa.....................lots and lots of Aid gifts etc...............staying at the top
...
Schaeuble now is emerging as the strong man in Europe.
Watch out for his OCcam's razor type strategy.
You only stay in Euro zone if you follow his Grand Plan.
A plan which will become evident when he imposes Grexit and subsequent EU commission discipline.
Then we will see what France and the Club Med does.
Make or break time. But Schaeuble UBer Alles! Mutti has to bow to his expertise that has DEEP GERMANY behind it; and thats all that counts in the coming meltdown.
WITNESS WHAT HAPPENED TO SWISS CENTRAL BANK : 50 BILLION $ LOSS FOR NOT STAYING IN LINE WITH EURO.
OH THE DOMINOES.
falak, I could as well ask what the EPP consensus is. Schäuble's opinions are usually not that far from it
btw, soon there won't be anything like a German tank and a French tank, only Franco-German ones. see... KANT Project
I presume the first model will be nicknamed Charly, for Charlemain, Charlemagne, Karl der Grosse
Oh yeah,
The Germans were really crazy about that guy coming to town with his 'muscular' Catholicism.
Ol' Chuck wasn't happy to leave the Krauts barking at trees, nosirree. You have to admit he had a hell of a way of getting those mass conversions signed up.
Dominus vobiscum.
Or else.
Ghordius,
The big issue is will France share its NUCLEAR clout with Germany ?
The day that happens Nato's hold weakens in Europe.
That project the CED was a central issue in 1954. The French shot it down and De Gaulle's empty chair in face of Hallstein didn't help Euro consolidation.
If Schaeuble is really serious about creating a centralised EU on his model he needs France on board and he needs Europe to have nuclear clout. That would have helped in 1992 against Milosevic and Sarajevo collapse!
Unfortunately Kohl and Mitterrand agreed on Euro but not on a federal economic policy nor on defense system !
OT: Canada Housing Bubble
Home Capital Group receives anonymous letter stating that mortgagers had overstated earnings to obtain mortgages, and that mortgage brokers involved in making sales were overlooking earnings figures.
http://schrts.co/eIvQ1V
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/7/30/Home-Capital-suspended-mortgage-brokers...
I just wonder how long those unemployed youth will put up with it. If nothing gets done about it we will have dark age 11 with the next generation. Mybe what needs to be done is to burn everything down so that it can be rebuild and give jobs to everybody. It's time to save those emty Wine and Beer Bottles.
The youth of the world (US, Europe, South America, Asia) do not have the stones to burn everything down. This will all end with a wimper, not a bang. Road to serfdom.
The unemployed youth of the world will be the cannon-fodder in the next big war. Same as it ever was.
youth unemployment huh....that couldn't be from the cheap labor streaming across the border now could it?
Got to concur with Sudden Debt's post.
I've travelled to Italy a lot and it's apparent to me that even since mid-2000's economic and social activity in that country has declined.
I've travelled to Rome, Florence, Amalfi Coast, and Sicily since 2000.
More and more of southern Italy is becoming like Sicily. Lots of men hanging around with nothing to do to fill their days. Young and old men just standing around chatting and dosing. Apparently no men work there. And I'm told that this is not by choice.
Go outside the main urban areas in southern Italy and the infrastructure such as roads starts to decline. It's not that there is no infrastructure, it's just that it is not being maintained.
I love Italy and the Italians but it is apparent that their country is going through real economic hardship. Even northern Italy is not as economically vibrant as it was in the early 2000's.
Who do you trust? Official government data or your own lying eyes?
You're seeing it wrong, dude. And we're going to reeducate you until you see it properly.
oh, another thing where we differ. depends on the government, I fear. particularly when it comes to statistics
Spain and Italy were always overstating their unemployment numbers. and Greece just recently had an internal row on how independent the Greek Stat Office should be
in short: the US is the undisputed master... in statistical embellishments
in short: the US is the undisputed master... at EXCEPTIONAL statistical embellishments
FIFY
This will give you a graphic feel for the disparity between Northern and Southern Italy. Non-performing loans by region:
http://i.imgur.com/ZVeYfVP.jpg
Funny how everything is always "surprising" and "unexpected."
... and "unprecedented", like X resulting in Y has never been observed before...
Why not give all the yuts gubmint jobs, and have 100% employment.
Big Gubmint is the answer to all problems.
I get really nice cheap shoes from Italy at Shoe Mart, so shut up!
The EU is the enemy of Europeans. The EU is a For the bankers, by the bankers conspiracy to subvert and supersede the laws and rights of sovereign European nations.
Europeans,
How stupid you are.
Ever since the creation of the Euro, life for you Europeans became more expensive, more difficult and more miserable.
Hence,
You Europeans are stupid,
for putting up with this shit,
And electing politicians like Hollande or Tsipras who claim to be of the Left,
yet,
who screw you and do what the bankers want, EVEN when you tell them to fuck the bankers in referendums.
Fuck you Europeans.
You're a bunch of stupid animals.
I've long found that the best way to awaken people and encourage them to consider different perspectives is to call them "stupid animals". So well done.
ask him if he knows the difference between the eurozone (19 using the EUR) and the EU (28), because it's not that clear, judging from his wording
imo a case of trolling or pure projection. the article here is about Italy, and generally speaking Italians are, in their private affairs, very debt averse
I've always found alternating hot and cold enemas to be particularly effective in inducing a higher awareness of alternate methodologies.
moooooh, moooh. oh, pardon, which kind of animals?
Actually, the WTO did in the world economy. The euro was just a mechanism for any remaining wealth to be transferred to the owners of the central bank.
Italy is on the rocks .... mistreating foreign students like Amanda Knox .... and running cruise ships like the Costa Concordia into islands .... Capt. Francesco Shettino still under house arrest .... or is he helping the Coast Guard rescue garbage scows full of Muslim infiltrators .... so needed in the Italian job market .... can't the Mafia protect Italy .... the one thing they do well .... covet and protect their impressive Gold Hoard .... unlike US, Germany and England .... Keystone Keynesians .... where's Dutch Boy this morning .... I'm Rick in Casa Blanca .... and he is the Italian attache !
These I - tal - i -ans should learn to massage their statistics a la 'Murrican and exclude anyone not looking for a job/dropped out of the workforce.
Then the unemployment rate will fall overnight to 5.3% and La Dolce Vita can resume.
"Leave the gun and take the cannolis."
After watching youth unemployment climb from 18.5% in 2007 to 42.4%, how could it be unexpected that it continued the same trajectory?
France overall unemployment rate: 10.2%
Italy overall unemployment rate: 12.7%
France youth unemployment rate: 23.6%
Italy youth unemployment rate: 44.2%
Do you believe these figures? They make no sense. France is most probably hiding its young unemployed with State financed fake jobs.
So to point the finger at Italy is meaningless. All countries, except Germany, in the euro area are in the same sorry plight.
So, anti-business policies aren't a good thing?
I know, I know. Import thousands of Africans, that will fix things.
repent... the end of days is near.
:-D
"Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable"OK, what Exit...? People ability to remember is worth poop? Some European countries (including Italy) showed improvements last year adding prostitution and drugs to the national accounting!!! That was desperation (it is not a moral judgement... as I would never be morally cabable of judging anyone!!!).
Current leadership is not adequate anywhere in the West. Italy wil sink as well as most of the Wester countries. We passed the point of no return, I am afraid.
Oh gosh the more I look at the picture of the Italian prime minister, Renzi, the more it reminds me the prince of idiots.
Interesting article today in " La Stampa " newspaper . It says that the south of Italy is worse than Greece and one in three people is at risk of poverty .
http://www.lastampa.it/2015/07/30/italia/cronache/il-sud-non-cresce-nasc...
Add to that the fact that the State is often absent and the MAFIA is in control . Even Rome , the capital of Italy is going through a bad period . The garbage disposal , a service organized by the City Council does not work and as a result garbage is overwhelming many suburbs . The City public transport system is badly managed and the so called managers have been fired last week .
Now the airport of Fiumicino is on the spotlitght , due to a fire that devasted a forest adjacent to the airport , departures and arrivals have been disrupted and travellers have been forced to camp in the airport . Today the rate of youth unemployment went up to over 44 % . It is not a very good picture . A few months ago the Italian government decided to include in the calculations of the Gross National product the ficticious numbers of the money made by prostitutes and the money spent by citizens buying drugs .
Despite this trick the national debt went up again and now stands to over 140 %
Direct result of MASSIVE HYPER-OVER-BREEDING due to centuries of domination by the catholic cult.
Herd culling is loooooong overdue.
You're a dickhead.
Fuck the EU, fuck the Euro and fuck both the horses they rode in on.
The only way euroPeons can thrive is by colonialism, wars , bloodbath, slavery & exploitation in order to sustain their hi-life.
Watchout third world, euroPeons , America & their allies will now scheme to attack & loot based on false pretexts (they are already doing that in middle east & Ukraine .
Hey Italians why not invade Africa (or Asia) as you did earlier 70 years back & bring back all the loot laden on your ships.
(Btw one Italian marine is under trial in India for killing a fisherman near Indian coast)