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July Jangles Markets' Nerves: Treasury Yields Tumble, Stocks Fumble, & Commodities Crumble
No excuse needed...
This seemed to sum the talking heads up today...
Everyone who loves the ECI index is now searching for another index to like
— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) July 31, 2015
Everything was awsome today after the worst wage growth in US history sent stocks soaring.. and then they unleashed The Bullard:
- 1408ET *FED'S BULLARD SAYS "IN GOOD SHAPE" FOR SEPT HIKE: DJ VIA CNBC
Complete chaos today...
With cash indices ending mixed (Nasdaq desparately clinging to green and Small caps ripped on biotech reach for safety lol!!!)
A complete disconnect between yields and stocks until Bullard spoiled the party...
Today across bonds, stocks, and gold...
Stocks were rolling over hard and then...
- The Market Broke - 1532ET *NYSE HAVING BINARY GATEWAY LATENCY ISSUE ON IP 159.125.64.138
And so VIX was slammed...to ensure S&P holds the all-important 2100 level...
* * *
Year-to-Date... Dow's down, Bonds down-er, Crude down-est... as The US Dollar is up 7.5%...
Trannies are still the big laggards with Nasdaq leading...
Led by Healthcare (Biotechs) as Energy remains the biggest loser...
* * *
It was quite a month!!
Bonds hot, commodities cold, stocks meh...
Bonds had their best month since January... (TLT +4.3%) - 2s30s biggest flattening (-23bps) since January
Stocks managed - after this week's epic surge - to get into the green for July...Trannies best month since Feb (up 4.1%) but Small Caps (Russell 2000) fell for the first time since April...
Commodities worst month since Sept 2011... to the lowest since April 2002
- WTI Crude's worst month since Oct 2008 (down 20.5%) - lowest close since March 2015
- Copper's worst month since Jan 2015 (down 10%) - lowest close since June 2009
- Gold's worst month since June 2013 (down 6.5%) - lowest monthly close since Jan 2010
- Silver's worst month since Sept 2014 (down 6%) - lowest monthly close since July 2009
* * *
On the week, Stocks soared...
As VIX "Matterhorn"-ed...
Bonds soared...
The dollar ended the week unchanged...
and all but silver slipped in commodities...
Did we just reach the threshold for gold short-covering?
And crude was crushed back to a $46 handle...
Finally - despite all the huffing and puffing over how China saved the world again with their intervention, Chinese stocks suffered their worst week in the last 5, crashing 9-12%...
The Shanghai Composite closed July down 14.4% - the worst month since August 2009.
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: "Smart" Money Flow Continues To Signal Rotation To Weak Hands...
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clown vomit and nailguns everywhere
Bullshitted + Mularky = Bullard
When I see the VIX mountain, I'm reminded of the "Eiger Sanction"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEc1aEYmiA8
Sanction; A violation of the law to enforce the law. The parallels are too many to count.
Mr Bonzai, This is somethng you might want to work on!!!
Mr. Bonzai needs to do a modern impressionist version of Bernank negotiating with the CEO of EPSON, entitled "Doing god's work"
Oil's going to $20?
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2015/07/20-oil.html
Yes, Comrade. Fuel prices should be the same for everyone! Of course, only the Elite will have cars.
This is a Recovery for the ages.
RUT failed today after a few runs at the 20 DMA and just shy the 61.8% Fib Retracement (approx 123.89 on IWM) in the move down from dates 7/16 (high) to 7/28 (low). Longer term Head an Shoulders breakdown started around 7/23...think this last few days was just a little head fake rally/dead cat bounce given the swift move lower last week and into Mon/Tues this week. TNA weekly call options are shit for premium compared to usual for the coming week. Either nobody has confidence in much of a continuation rally next week or lots of people were under pressure to roll this week into next...I think it is the former just from my constant vigilance in seeking out premium spikes, but won't count out the other possibility.
Doesn't look good out there for the bulls. They deserve a good deep goring anyways, filthy animals.
Long live the scrawny, malnourished, weak and famished bear, if you made it this far, I salute you, your trail is covered with many a carcass of your fallen brethren. Have a good weekend hedgies.
Good luck to you, JMF, I was sick as a dog today, too sick today to even trade, so I missed the big TNA turnabout. The early sprint to the 20DMA looked more like a "selling vacuum" for big boys waiting to re-short for another attack on the 200DMA, and you saw how precisely it turned there. Of course, we've seen crazy RUT ramps out of nowhere for years, but I agree the beast looks a little tired.
Same to you KCS. Was unlucky enough to be away on business for mondays plunge and ramp so missed some fun trading/opportunities. Entered a short on some 84 calls for next week up near that 20 dma today along with my weekly roll of the 85 call short against Aug 15 Long Call into the close. I'm expecting some deterioration, but can be patient if there is more upside.
Hope you feel better. I think you just found your next song. "Too sick to trade" parody of "Too sick to pray" by Willie Nelson or the one by Alabama3 whichever suits your style.
Think the key to everything will actually be the QQQs, if bears can stop it from ramping back to new highs, means the institutional buyers are on hold.
(Haven't done any straight country yet (closest was a Gillian Welch tune), not sure how many ZH-ers are fans, but I think you mentioned being from N. Carolina, and a band from Asheville I really like, more 'alt-country', is the Honeycutters.)
Those be some ugly charts.
some fed-goggles make em hott though.
UNLEASH THE BULLSHITER, UH BULLARD!!!!!
And on that day skynet was born.....
WTI line is signaling a robust economy. /s
BTW...have Greece and China 'recovered'...?
Everybody should be flat in 3 weeks or less which is why Smart Money is quietly exiting especially with the bullard comment. Best to watch from a far off place than to be the entertainment.
Everybody have a good weekend.
"Both Reggie and I are into stocks! Buy! Buy!"
--Bath House
STFU Bullard....
,,,and another last minute ramp to VWAP straight up the ass of any shorts thinking of leaving a position open over the weekend. P.s. see the volume go thru' the tape in last 2 mins? 65,000 cons, awesome sight.
Fed is to Zed as Bullard is to Gimp.
I'm hungry for a Kahuna Burger
“Physical” by Olivia Newton-John
They’re saying all the things that they think you'll like, claiming there’s no inflation
An 11-handle VIX, it just ain’t right -- but stocks must stay green
They took you for an indolent sycophant, a beggar that can’t be choosy
But the data-dependence they talk about is just a tautology
So let's get physical, physical
I wanna buy physical, let's get into physical
Let me see the dollar drop, the dollar drop
Let me watch the dollar drop
I've been patient, knock on wood, but consumer demand’s unstable
It's gettin' hard this holdin' back when the Fed might intervene
I’ll never understand their point of view to act incrementally
But as those Fed-Heads drag it out, it’s minerals for me
Let's get physical, physical . . .
"Matterhorn" is easily my favorite new chart pattern description
August has been good for Treasurys 15 of the last 17 years < cuz Fed and politicians finally STFU and head to the beach >
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-31/guess-what-treasuries-did-last-summer-and-look-like-doing-again
It's all going according to plan!
The empire is falling, buy commodities.
When the dollar crashes the Great and the Terrible Day of the Lord begins....
It is also concurrent with Obama's assassination and resurrection by Satan!
http://revelation12.ca
Coppers 2.35 and oil at 46 and change. There's no liquidity in the bond market . All ya need to know
This might give someone in Japan the shits.
http://www.rt.com/news/311302-nsa-target-tokyo-wikileaks/http://www.rt.c...
Fed is doing a liftoff bluff to force demand forward. If someone told you rates are rising and are looking for mortgage or loan you buy now. The thing is no-one is buying... when the consensus realizes it all over.
It's called deflation. It's been around for a while and still has some time to run.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/31/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0Q51I320...
A temporary setback?
.
U.S. real (inflation adjusted) median household income was $51,939 in 2013 versus $51,759 in 2012, statistically unchanged. In 2013, real median household income was 8.0 percent lower than in 2007, the year before the latest recession. (I believe the drop is now 10%+ but I cannot find a reference article)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States
Fast approaching full employment?
https://agenda.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/fredgraph.jpg
The Ministry of Truth has the MSM clowns working overtime on pumping out this garbage....