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The World's Second Biggest Stock Is Crushing A 28-Year Trendline
Since the lows after the October 1987 crash, XOM has 'trended' positively for 28 years... finding support at a critical trendline four times over that period... until now. While internals of the market are weak, the fact that the world's second largest stock has broken an historic trendline is notably concerning and confirmed by what will be the 3rd monthly close below the level today...
It is perhaps most ironic that XOM is cutting its buyback program... just as its stock shits a 52-week low. It appears the old "buy high, sell low" corporate strategy is in play.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Breaks my heart.
Hello SNB??
Don't look now but....
My Puts ..My beautiful puts .....they get prettier when they are converted to lake silver.
RIPA
The reason of stock price decline is because Exxon is selling almost all of its international assets.
Question to ask is not why the shares are down but why such a large oil company is selling overseas assets in almost a panic fashion over the last few years, which is now impacting its stock price?
Iraq: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/23/us-iraq-exxon-idUSBRE97M0A8201...
Norway: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-04-13/exxon-sells-norwegian-...
UK: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/shell-exxon-sell-north...
Japan: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/exxon-mobil-to-sell-its-japanese-...
Latin America: http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-dow-jones/54804/-exxon-sells-do...
Louisiana: http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-sells-share-chalmett...
Alaska: http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/07/exxon-subsidiary...
Kenya: http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9703273211/mobil-acquire-exxo...
Massive trouble in Venezuela including freezing of assets which they won and it has been disruptive for Exxon. https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/why-us-diplomats-are-reaching-out-vene...
Lost Abu Dhabi concession: http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/sharp-fall-in-profit-for-exxon...
Even Buffett sold their shares recently. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/berkshire-hathaway-sells-exxon-stake-but...
Why are they selling all these assets?
What do they know that we don't?
Oh yes, another support line drawn in a way to meet a narrative. Cool.
Support becoming resistance
Excellent question. Know lots of folks in the 'earl biz'...they all say Exxon is like a bank. Maybe they know that Neptune in Pisces until 2026 ("oil! oil! oil!") means a reserve buying opportunity, so they've gotta have cash.
"Why are they selling all these assets?
What do they know that we don't?"
That it's time to sell, apparently.
I don't think so...though you may have a point.
Oil is not going anywhere for the next few decades...we use trucks, cars, planes, ships etc, all based on oil. Unless some super energy source LENR or E-CAT turns up and is replaced in all vehicles within the next decade, whether oil price goes to 10 or 100 is immaterial, we shall still need oil.
Americans will not be allowed to buy back into Iraq or Iran or anywhere because unlike 2 decades ago, China and Russia have showed up as competitors and most of the assets sold or new drilling contracts are given to China in Iran, Iraq, Abu Dhabi etc which was unthinkable just a decade ago.
So, the question still remains why are they selling?
I believe it maybe something to do with profitability (or the lack of it) and the desire to leave the rest of the world just like Obama is withdrawing from Middle East and patching up with Cuba. But then why has he antagonised Russia for no major reason? It's too complicated to figure out in one go! But it seems Exxon, BP, Shell knew that a collapse will be coming and protected their values since they were in distress and Chinese are willing to pay top dollars!
In the end...the decline curve always wins.
I don't work for XOM...and I don't generally like people that do (Personality Lobotomies?)...but they do hire a lot of very very smart people. So, I have another question. What does XOM know that others don't?
Or...are they raising cash to buy back stock in one last futile attempt to keep their price proped up while the VIPs bail before the Oil Well Decline Curve slaps them upside the head?
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that maybe they're trying to avoid the eventual asset seizures by foreign govts when things really get sour. Like Venezuela did.
Exxon Mobil is owned by so many people and institutions that a big decline in the stock will hurt. Pensions and a negative "wealth effect" upon individual stockholders.
XOM's decline further adds evidence that we are in a USA and/or worldwide slowdown. We have not had an "official recession" since 2008/2009 (let's put aside for now the argument that we never left it). A new recession will be very painful, at least here in the USA as there have been very few reforms to strengthen our economy and the country. Quite the opposite (eg ObamaCare).
Hey, don't worry about those pensions...Smellen will fix those when she raises the rates...
Doesn't matter how many $$$ you have in a pension plan what matters is what those $$$ buy
WHO HAS A PENSION (ASIDE FOR GOVERNMENT "WORKERS") ANYMORE?
With doubleplusgood seasonal revisions there will never offically be another recession.
We will be living in caves hearing about the roaring eCONomy.
If the pensions suffer , the political fallout will be epic, that's when it gets real serious.
It's down because XOM is selling commodities/energy during a deflationary time........far bigger story would be to highlight the dropping trend of % DOW stocks above 200DMA.......that's were you can see the real story because that's where the big money goes and spoiler alert, it ain't looking too good at this point. This is still setting up very nicely for an October correction (panic sell off) and then a major dip buying spree which shoots the values into the stratosphere. Forget the headfakes, key is to pay attention to the money flows.
always there a solid floor at 0
shit that low real good
nothing a few layoffs and arctic drilling cant fix!
much safer in burritos, bad movie streaming, and facefuck
That's an ugly chart to me. Not really any charting techniques on display here, but the price patterns seem to be strongly in favor of a sizable downward move.
Check out a chart of Chevron (CVX).
Down for $134 from last July and breaking a five year low today at $89. Look out below...
When it drops below a 52 week or 12 month moving average, it will be time to abandon ship.
It's OK as soon as QE Infinitier is annouced oil will rocket back to $100+ per barrel and everything will be peaches with XOM again.
Erm... uh... ahem... Yeah, it did that a long time ago.
Indeed. A three year low today. High of $104 last summer. This stock is in a bear market.
During that entire time, Saudi cut production when prices dropped. Until now.
Long term , time is not on their side since oil is not the future, but the past.
They need to kill the competition and sell their oil in the short term.
Oil will remain "in the future" for at least the next several hundred years.
There is NOTHING to replace it.
All the replacements are not SOURCES of energy, they are simply means of storing it. Tell us, where are all the electricity mines? or hydrogen mines?
Saudi has increased production for the summer for domestic consumption, their exports haven't changed.
Exxon, at the sign of the double cross.
Apple is topping too
http://www.goldsqueeze.com/analysis/apple-is-topping-as-apple-goes-so-go...
There is nothing more wrong with the world than Apple being valued higher than Exxon Mobil.
More work went into designing and manufacturing one deep sea rig than the entirety of Apple's existence and the entire future of Apple's development.
I'd call that a healthy pullback (the low at the end of '10) followed by a failed breakout (the trendline breach). That kind of thing is caused by weaknesses in the fundamentals. In all likelihood the broader market along with this stock starts crashing through support levels from here.
well you can always draw another line, right?
That touches four times? Nope.
That said, it doesn't look like the trend has failed on the fibs yet.
i can: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13079660/20150731_xom.jpg
Dollar down, everything else up. Easy Friday of trading for Kevin Henry, that little shitbag.
Something to keep in mind - the president's approval rating hit a peak about 3 weeks ago from the zenith of gay marriage, healthcare law sustained, TPA and Iran. Like a market 'top' of sorts, in the political realm. If you believe that there is any correlation between Fed policy and politics, don't look for any sort of policy decision that would serve to 'kill the high' anytime soon.
Meh fire 50k workforce! Fixed!
Can't they all just get jobs at AMZN?
You mean in the delivery department, that lost $1.5 billion dollars last year?
Much more telling chart. 34xrrfa.jpg The attempt to regain trend and the resultant failure is easily seen in Oct 14 along with the stubborness to admit to new lows at the $85 support. Likewise the attempt and failure at the Fibonacci at $82.63.
Who says charting and fundamentals don't matter!
Didn't you all hear. You can buy oil on AMZN W/ Applepay And they have it delivered on Sunday by the USPS. Everybody makes money but the USPS.
It is sooooooooooo different this time. XOM is so yesterday, get w/ it.
This stock should be in the stratosphere now that their 2 biggest expenses, energy and labour, are headed for rock bottom.
Rocky liquidating?
Thanks to ZeroHedge for giving me the opportunity to get something off my chest...
"the world's second largest stock has broken an historic trendline"
In the past month, nobody has sked me why I don't own an house. If any guy had, I'd have just given him an high-five and told him that at one time I did own an house, way up on the top of an hill. I'd have gladly explained that I had always enjoyed the view from such an high vantage point, but that the penalty one occasionally pays for magnificent views is having to suffer winds with the force of an hurricane. "Trust me, that's an horrible experience". I would have said as I whipped out an handkerchief and started twirling it around in front of his face like an half-crazed cowboy girly-fruit from a century and an half ago..
He might have replied, "C'mon, have an heart man. I was planning on renting an Honda and taking a spin..
You get the picture? You don't say "Goldman Sachs has an history of crimes against the nation and indeed against humanity". So you don't say "Goldman Sachs is an historically rotton corporation". Goldman Sachs is a historically rotton corporation... but you don't say it with a fucking "n" thrown in there for no god damned reason. And you don't say "the world's second largest stock has broken an historic trendline"
Whoever was the first person to ever start butchering the word "history" like that should be drawn and quartered on prime-time. I only know this much for sure... it started in the media by arrogant assholes who thought they were English experts. They aren't. And if they don't like being told that... they take an hike.
ur an hitler youth
Haha... that's funny. Not exactly an homerun, but you have an sense of humor.
Put down the crayons, Billy. A lot of analysts would see this chart as bullish for XOM, expecting a return to normal.
Might be because some folks see that when the politicians do the global warming tax, that new revenue stream will come directly from energy industry profits? Margin squeeze?
First the oil companies and then the banks. Probably don't need them now that the money changers got hold of the press.
Uhh...anyone care to ask why they are suddenly conserving cash?
If the earnings turn to losses, you need more shares to spread that over so it does not look so bad....
Algea bio-fuel is the future.
You can eat it too.
Living car engines?
Maybe the NSA will release the ancient technology someday?
And create another Gates or Fuckerface.
STFU and BTFD!
28 years takes us back to 1987. At the beginning of the 4th quarter of that year, Exxon was priced at 9.53 - down from 12.16 (3rd quarter). At the beginning of the 2nd quarter of 1994, Exxon dipped from 15.72 (1st quarter) to 14.19. 14.19 divided by 9.53 is 1.4885, meaning that Exxon gained 48.85% from Oct 1 1987 to Apr 1 1994 - equivalent to about 6.3108% annually Extending a line that gains 6.3108% annually over a period of 28 years multiplies the price by 5.54838. 5.54838 * 9.53 (the 1987 price) gives a price of 52.88. But Exxon's price closed at 79.21 today - well above 52.88.
The price of XOM will have to drop a lot more before it breaks the 28-year trendline.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XOM+Interactive#symbol=XOM;range=my