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30Y Treasury Yield Plunges To 3-Month Lows As S&P Breaks Key Technical Support

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The carnage is contagious. The S&P 500 just broke down below its 50- and 100-day moving averages unable to hold the ubiquitous pre-EU-close ramp highs. Treasury yields have plunged since the weak spending and ISM data with the 5Y breaking below its 200-day moving average and 30Y yields testing 3-month lows...

 

 

and as stocks fall, so are bond yields... With 30Y breaking to 3-month lows...

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:44 | 6385392 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Wake me up when the S&P 500 plunges 10% in a week.  That used to be common in 2008 until the Fed banned it.  But they made up for it by dropping commodities 10% in a week.

Is oil cheaper than  water yet?

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:46 | 6385415 gmak
gmak's picture

Oil has been cheaper than water (bottled) for a long time. 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 13:05 | 6385425 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Keep 'em spinning, Simon!

http://newyorkfed.org/research/economists/potter/

 

Ask Simon if he will predict for you what he will close the SP 500 at today by using time series analysis, Bayesian methods with nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles, and large panel forecasting models modeling structural change and inflation expectations.  Or, just ask him what his instructions were in this morning's email from the bosses.

simon.potter@ny.frb.org
Phone (212) 720-6309

 

What?  The SP 500 isn't manipulated?  Like LIBOR wasn't manipulated?

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:47 | 6385416 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, now try actually taking delivery at that price.  Ironic how we made fun of the central planners in the former Soviet Union isn't it?

Foward Soviet!!!

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 14:34 | 6385892 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I think they are all government and central bank consultants now. The word "comrade" is making a big comeback.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 19:54 | 6387325 JJdog
JJdog's picture

where have you been? oil been cheaper than water for years!  I remember last time I bought a bottle of 12 oz vox water for $12 in a night club in las vegas about couple years ago. 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 19:54 | 6387326 JJdog
JJdog's picture

where have you been? oil been cheaper than water for years!  I remember last time I bought a bottle of 12 oz vox water for $12 in a night club in las vegas about couple years ago. 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:43 | 6385395 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You think yields are super low now? You ain't seen nothing yet.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:50 | 6385427 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

umm the real crisis happens when yields rise with bad news. Like they do in every other country on earth except the US of A.

 

 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:51 | 6385433 knukles
knukles's picture

Si, my Good Doctor!
We's gots the Japanese disease, big time.  And regardless of health care prices, etc., going up, the rout in commodity prices is what the markets base inflation off of. 
And they be going down.
Betcha in 5 years, a 3% 30 year looks like "GOLD"!   As there won't be shit to buy for income.  Other than Greek bank bonds (unsecured), Ukraine governments (in default) both of which will be yielding a hefty 2%.
Gonna be a blood bath to find income...  as if it ain't now ....  ain't seen nuffin' yet!

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:56 | 6385452 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We share the same vision Knucks.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:43 | 6385396 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

US in 30 years?

Optimists.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:44 | 6385400 madcows
madcows's picture

The 10-yr still has another 25% to go before I sell it.  We'll test that 1.6 low soon enough.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:52 | 6385436 NoVa
NoVa's picture

a Mortgage Cap Markets buddy of mine has published a forecast of 1.35 on the 10 yr, with an outside chance of 1.15 sometime this year.  He's got 5 more months - 

 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:44 | 6385402 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

30yr below 3% again hmmmmm. Is this another rush to safe haven heaven????

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:56 | 6385450 knukles
knukles's picture

Yep.  In times of financial panic, any port in the storm does very fine, thank you very much as folks become more interested in the return of their money rather than the return on their money.
And if the dollar is being likewise bid, the the best returns will be in long Treasuries and gold will lag behind."
Remember, in the 2008 + debacles, the dollar was NOT king as the financial problem was the US.  So gold was bid strongly in USD terms. 
That said, I still hold and strongly recommend it for the role it's supposed to play.  The protector of financial well being during the Great Shit Storm ....
Which seems to me to be getting closer, not receding. 
To wit leaders like  ..... Oh, never mind

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:46 | 6385410 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Why the hell "economists" continue to try and pencil in 3+% GDP annual growth in the US is beyone me.  Just another growth-disappointment-yield-kneejerk-lower reaction. 

 

One of many over the past 7 years, and certainly not the last.

 

 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:58 | 6385460 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

3% GDP is not hard to nail with doubleplusgood revisions.  That said, not sure they'll hit it even with said methodology.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:47 | 6385417 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

prime the pumps.

chumps.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:56 | 6385451 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

I think Janet will raise rates now.... Unbelievable idiots shooting blanks.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 13:01 | 6385471 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

sure, any second now...

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 12:56 | 6385453 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

30 year is going to be sub 2.5 pretty quickly here.  Strong demand.  Seems indicitive of future QE, no way those pieces of shit are being bought without some promise of future buybacks by the Fed. 

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 13:02 | 6385474 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

Death cross is about 3 sessions away.

oh, and for todays humor, Barclays and some other idiots just RAISED their GDP forecast.  ya cant fix stupid.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 13:11 | 6385516 madcows
madcows's picture

the death cross doesn't matter anymore.  With no real volume, the PPT can levitate forever.

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 13:02 | 6385476 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    It's not the fall that kills you... It's the sudden stop.

   It looks to me like 50day hasn't cross the 100day since late last October. (S&P)

Mon, 08/03/2015 - 13:04 | 6385492 aliki
aliki's picture

joe terranova on CNBC just said "if the PBOC doesn't cut rates, we gotta problem"

l o l

not sure if any of these guys are ever gonna get it. let me simplify whats going on:

debt strangles
debt chokes
debt drowns

negative rates are the only solution according to their calculation which includes sticking ones head in the sand for prolonged periods of time regarding THE ONLY ISSUE THAT MATTERS - dealing with global debt levels. factor-in dirt-lo growth rates (and heading lower as a result of that strangling, choking, drowning debt) and theres only so-long you can pull the gains forward before the axe starts to slice & dice.

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