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The Best And Worst Performing Assets In July And 2015 YTD
For commodities July was the cruelest month: whether driven by Chinese weakness or just algos frontrunning hedge fund liquidations, July was the worst month for commodities since the great oil crash of late 2014, but nowhere was it worse than oil, which entered into a bear market - its second in under one year - with WTI sliding 21%, its worst month since October 2008, while Brent suffered its biggest monthly decline in 2015. In fact one could be hard pressed to debate who had it worse: Chinese farmers stuck with underwater positions in an insanely volatile market, or commodity bulls.
But it wasn't just commodities vs everything else: as Deutsche Bank observes, July proved to be an eventful month for markets (and volatile for some) as we saw a diverging performance between DM and EM. The carnage in China and commodities was a key highlight in otherwise what was a fairly positive month for DM credit, rates and equities.
Here are the details:
taking a closer look at the specifics moves in commodities WTI (-21%), Brent (-18%), and Copper (-10%) all suffered huge monthly declines in July. For WTI it was the worst month since October 2008 and Brent the biggest monthly decline this year. Demand for commodities is generally closely correlated to EM growth. So with concerns of China and Brazil slowing down, the moves in commodities are perhaps not surprising even though persistent Dollar strength and the potential timing of a Fed liftoff have also likely weighed on the broader appetite for EM assets.
China equities had an extremely volatile month (28% range including the intraday high/lows) as authorities attempted to engineer an orderly deleveraging of its stock market after fairly aggressive selling at the start of the month. They had some success until panic selling returned a few days before the month end to see the Shanghai Composite (-14%) record its worst monthly performance since August 2009. Brazil equities fell 4% on deepened recessionary concerns.
That mostly covers the bad news: on the other side of the performance scale was dominated by European equities as Greek concerns eased. Peripherals markets such as Italy (+4.8%) and Spain (+4.3%) were the main outperformers. The Stoxx600 was also up +4.0%. BTPs and Spanish bonds also gained 3.5% and 2.6% in July with the former also supported by its decision to cancel 3 debt auctions that were scheduled for July and August. On the other side of the pond, the S&P 500 (+2.1%) had its second best monthly performance this year as the Tech sector outperformed on generally favourable results.
DB's conclusion:
It was certainly interesting to see European and US core rates firmer despite the strength in their respective equities market. Perhaps bond investors are still somewhat concerned about the global growth outlook given the pace of deterioration in China. Treasuries and Bunds were up 1% and 1.5% respectively. The rates rally was also helpful for Credit returns especially given the spread weakness in the US. US HY (-1.2%) was the notable underperformer dragged down by the market’s concentration in Oil and mining.
So without further ado, here are the best and worst performing asset classes in July in local currency terms:
And here is the same data for all assets through the end of July also in local currency terms...
... and denominated in Dollars.
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My best assets experienced a boating accident.
Ha look. The Coin didn't even show up on the lists. Worship the joke at your peril PhoneStar!
if you look at the chart, the legend colors don't match. lol. commodities are labeled as 'light grey' but their bar shows up as 'dark blue'. why draw a chart if you can't get it right. lol, no-one looks at charts...they look at what the caption says.
oh, disappointed - i mis-read
i thought it said best and worst performing ass-hats
Titanic.
How to be happy despite taking an investment loss https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T-BH8-yBmU
Paper good
Real stuff bad
Rock On Roger
That seems to be what the story of 2015 has been.
That will likely change...
Hey bearing man, good to read ya.
I'm still stacking, I got the hay stack tarped this morning. Hay is very valuable in these parts - $250/ton - 2.5 to 3x higher than last year.
I bought a couple extra bearings for the baler so I'm adding to my bearing stack too.
Stack On
Shit me, the worst asset is not gold. That means we have a long to way to go yet.
Nothing says the global eCONomy is healthy and growing like crashing commodities. After all the law of supply and demand clearly states that prices will go down when demand is high.
Obviously the best investment going forward is US Treasury bills. The US Federal Government is fundamentally sound economically, and the dollar will always be the reserve currency of the world.
Also Iran is our friend, Israel is our advesary
Coal, gas, oil, nuclear are out, wind, water, solar, and pixie-dust is in.
Obama is Messiah
Support the DNC - Abort a viable Black baby
Areyou part of the ZH pro-zionist propaganda? Everyone knows that Israel and the US puppet gov is nobodys friend.
Wake the fuck up, Israhell is our adversary and every ''goyim'' on the planet. Goyim means cattle, they refer to us as animals.
Wake the fuck up, Israhell is our adversary and every ''goyim'' on the planet. Goyim means cattle, they refer to us as animals.
US is survivor island for the investor class.
But for how long?
It's funny watching wealth run at the target.
But that's how you generate fees.
The banks have always been the best performers.
humm...how curious...
"NEW DELHI: India's gold imports shot up by about 61 per cent to 155 tonnes in the first two months of the current fiscal mainly due to weak prices globally and the easing of restrictions by the Reserve Bank.
In April-May of the last fiscal, gold imports had aggregated about 96 tonnes, an official said. In the international market, gold has been trading weak over the past few months. On Friday, it closed at USD 1,095.10 in New York market.
India is the largest importer of gold, which mainly caters to the demand of the jewellery industry. Large imports of gold impact the country's current account deficit, which occurs when value of import of goods and services is more than its exports."
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Gold-imports-...
And if India keeps taking physical gold off the market...
Less for the rest.
I'm done buying though. If I said "Buy Gold, Bitchez", that might be seen as, erm, self-serving...
Bitcoin up by ~11% during July. Just saying...
Mt GOX...what makes you think Goldman can't print bitcoins....do you have any idea?
Depression for 25 years inc...
Junk Bond Trader
Watch Cramer I did pretty good. http://www.strategic-options.com/trade/open/month/July-15