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Comex On The Edge? Paper Gold "Dilution" Hits A Record 124 For Every Ounce Of Physical
Over the few days, we got what was merely the latest confirmation that when it comes to sliding gold prices, consumers of physical gold just can't get enough.
As the Times of India reported over the weekend, India's gold imports shot up by 61% to 155 tonnes in the first two months of the current fiscal year "due to weak prices globally and the easing of restrictions by the Reserve Bank. In April-May of the last fiscal, gold imports had aggregated about 96 tonnes, an official said."
This follows confirmations previously that with the price of gold sliding, physical demand has been through the roof, case in point: "US Mint Sells Most Physical Gold In Two Years On Same Day Gold Price Hits Five Year Low", "Gold Bullion Demand Surges - Perth Mint and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand", "Gold Tumbles Despite UK Mint Seeing Europeans Rush To Buy Bullion" and so on. Indicatively, as of Friday, the US Mint had sold 170,000 ounces of gold bullion in July: the fifth highest on record, and we expect today's month-end update to push that number even higher.
But while the dislocation between demand for physical and the price of paper gold has been extensively discussed here over the years, most recently in "Gold And The Silver Stand-Off: Is The Selling Of Paper Gold And Silver Finally Ending?", something unexpected happened at the CME on Friday afternoon which may be the most important observation yet.
Recall that in the middle of 2013, in an extensive series of articles, we covered what was then a complete collapse in Comex vaulted holding of registered (i.e., deliverable) gold. At the time the culprit was JPM, where for some still unexplained reason, the gold held in the newest Comex' vault plunged by nearly 2 million ounces in just six short months.
More importantly, the collapse in registered Comex gold sent the gold coverage ratio (the number of ounces of "paper" gold open interest to the ounces of "physical" registered gold) soaring from under 20 where, or roughly in line with its long-term average, to a whopping 112x. This means that there were a total of 112 ounces of claims for every ounces of physical gold that could be delivered at any given moment.
Gradually, the Comex raid was relegated to the backburner when starting in 2014 the amount of registered gold tripled from the upper 300k range to 1.15 million ounces one year ago, at which point the slide in Comex registered gold started anew.
Which brings us to Friday afternoon, also known as month end position squaring, when in the latest daily Comex gold vault depository update we found that while some 270K in Eligible gold had been withdrawn mostly from JPM vaults, what caught our attention was the 25,386 ounces of Registered gold that had been "adjusted" out of registered and into eligible. As a reminder, eligible gold is "gold" that can not be used to satisfy inbound delivery requests without it being converted back to registered gold first, which makes it mostly inert for delivery satisfaction purposes.
Most importantly, this 25,386 oz reduction in deliverable Comex gold from 376,906 on Thursday pushed the amount of registered Comex gold to an all time low: at 351,519 ounces, or just barely over 10 tons, registered Comex gold has never been lower!
Incidentally, as part of the month-end redemption requests, we saw a whopping 22% of the eligible gold in Kilo-bar format (where there is no registered, just eligible) be quietly whisked away from Brink's vaults: unlike traditional ounce-based contracts, the kilo format traditionally serves as an indication of Chinese demand, and if withdrawals on par with those seen on July 31 persist, it will soon become clear that Chinese buyers are once again scrambling for the safety of gold now that their stock market bubble has blown up.
This covers the sudden surge in demand for physical gold as manifested by CME data.
Meanwhile, over in "paper gold" land, things remained unchanged: as shown in the chart below, the aggregate gold open interest rose modestly to 43.5 million ounces up from 42.9 million the day before.
While on its own, gold open interest - which merely represents the total potential claims on gold if exercised - is hardly exciting, as we have shown previously it has to be observed in conjunction with the physical gold that "backs" such potential delivery requests, also known as the "coverage ratio" of deliverable gold.
It is here that things get a little out of hand, because as the chart below shows, all else equal, the 43.5 million ounces of gold open interest and the record low 351,519 ounces of registered gold imply that as of Friday's close there was a whopping 123.8 ounces in potential paper claims to every ounces of physical gold.
This is an all time record high, and surpasses the previous period record seen in January 2014 following the JPM gold vault liquidation.
Another way of stating this unprecedented ratio is that the dilution ratio between physical gold and paper gold has hit a record low 0.8%.
Indicatively, the average paper-to-physical coverage ratio since January 1, 2000 is a "modest" 19.1x. As of Friday it had soared to more than 6 times greater.
Which brings us to the usual concluding observations:
First: as we have said previously, at a time when all the gold selling (and naked shorting) is in the paper markets and when demand for physical gold is once again off the charts, with soaring purchases not only in India but also in the US, where is this gold going? Clearly not into CME gold vaults, which are once again a source of physical gold, and as the above shows, have never had less deliverable gold.
Second, total Comex gold has dropped to such precarious levels in the past and while on many occasions market observers have asked if the Comex is close to a failure to deliver, aka a default of the CME's gold warehouse, it has always avoided such a fate. Still, one wonders: the 10+ tons of deliverable gold at the Comex are now worth a paltry $383 million. It would not be very complicated for a next generation "Hunt Brother" to buy some $400 million in Comex gold, and promptly demand delivery: after all the gold crash of two weeks ago saw some $2.7 billion in paper gold dumped in the most illiquid market - why can't it be done in reverse. What would happen next is unknown, but unless somehow the Comex found a way of converting millions of ounces of Eligible gold into Registered, the CME would simply be unable to satisfy such a delivery request.
Third: while there are still over 7 million ounces of Eligible gold, why the recent spike in "adjustments" of eligible to registered gold (i.e., missing a warehouse receipt)?
Finally, we assume the mainstream press will once again start paying close attention to the total, and especially registered, gold held at the Comex: at a pace of 25K a day, the gold vaults that make up the CME's vaulting system would be depleted in just under two weeks of daily withdrawals.
In any case, we are very curious to see how this latest dramatic face off in the long-running war between paper and physical gold, concludes.
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EiA Parrot Style: https://youtu.be/NwL_h8MtaBU
silver is money.
gold is like bitcoin ... useless
Oldie but a GOLDIE…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJz1ZaOtbiI
And right on cue, gold takes a dive. PAPER prices... www.kitco.com
So, I'm a simple guy.
so, you're saying...123 out of 124 people, who THINK they own gold...dont, actually, own....any gold.
no biggy.
What I don't understand is why wealthy net longs who own a lot of physical don't BUY a lot of paper and then ask for delivery. Mr Sprout and other wealthy mine owners What The Fuck are you waiting for???
he is in on the scam..
It also seems China has withdrawn 200,000 ounces ALL on THURSDAY
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3386995-some-strange-things-are-happenin...
Maybe just maybe this article will induce fear on gold ETF buyers which will bring the price of gold even lower!
Just thinking. Can this be right?
i cant wait till gold and silver hit zero in relation to the dollar so i can go straight up king midas.
So Gold is at about $1100 right now -- x 124 = almost $150k per ounce.
Just say'in.
DELIVER me from EVIL!
If there were ever a good time for the physical market to assert itself and put the naysayers in their place it would be now.
Bernank will not stand for anything less than $10 silver, but the physical market is a harsh mistress... premiums on silver eagles are at 25% today.
Even higher on Morgans
The premiums on Walking Liberty Halves are extraordinary. Anything in decent condition sells for $8 each on ebay. I saw a roll of Kennedys go for $180.
It's enough to drive a stacker to buy bars....
A liquor license is as good as gold.
Liquor is as good as gold. Fixed it for ya.
Manipulation Not Withstanding...
$42000. GOLD Would Probably Be A Fair Price Right Now.
Common core accounting mistake, a ribbon for all participating!...
Can someone tell me if there's a limit to the gold cover ratio? Are they allowed to go above 140x to say 1000x?
Allowed by who?
Allowed by whom?
Can anyone answer this?: If the physical is so scarce and the paper so plentiful, Why isn't this spread blowing out and exposing this great manipulation????
I actually heard that number before... 155K i believe possibly due to the same calculation, i paid little attention to the number but you triggered the memory of it. Also just sayin.
lets round down to the nearist 100,000 and call it a day.
I think that number might have come from a 100% dollar backing scenario. Of course, it's not straight math in this case. As the price rises demand would fall after a certain point. At 123/1 the price should go up, but not by 123x, somewhere in the middle, as demand would decrease as the price rose. My guess is at $20k - $50k / oz.
I'm sure you fellers are sharp enough to appreciate, but for those who are new to this information - it doesnt imply a price of $155k as the false demand of 124 claims per ounce drops away as the price rises - when gold is $2000, what portion of those 124 are now willing to sell? what portion at $5000? how many are still holding at $10k
obviously the dilution of demand from a ratio of 124:1 is as preposterous as anything ever seen in modern markets (hell, lehman and bear sterns were only leveraged at about 35:1 ), but aint no-one should be thinking $155 k is the 'upside'
My hat is in the ring at stabilizing $8000 / oz with brief speculative blow off momentum in the $12-$15 000 range
it doesnt imply a price of $155k as the false demand of 124 claims per ounce drops away as the price rises
DEFINITION of 'Giffen Good'A good for which demand increases as the price increases, and falls when the price decreases. A Giffen good has an upward-sloping demand curve, which is contrary to the fundamental law of demand which states that quantity demanded for a product falls as the price increases, resulting in a downward slope for the demand curve.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/giffen-good.asp#ixzz3hnLO2VTgCut away evil speculators and it's only 55k Haus.
That assumes a linear function which I doubt it is.
hmmm, a gold pee pee. Keep jackin
gold ding dong! My pee is already golden, but i don't try to stack it, store it, or keep it in any way.
This is why I don't invest in precious metals. The table is tilted, the game is rigged, it's a big club and we ain't in it.
With this legalized fraud, and absolutely nothing we can do about it, I fail to see the point of owning metals.
With these massive fraudulent sell orders, you will get crushed. Back in 2011, gold was at $1,900 and all of the paytriot blogs were pushing buy, buy, buy, it will go to the moon, gold will be $25,000 get in now! How wrong they were. All it took was market manipulation and gold is smacked all of the way down to $1,080 last I checked, which is 2009 levels. Only a fool would goof around with a rigged game without connections.
The other reason why I am bearish on PMs is that the average joe not only doesn't know what gold is "worth", he couldn't care less what gold is. Mark Dice offered people a 1oz gold coin for face value, with NO takers. He also offered a 10oz silver bar or a Hershey's bar with everyone picking the $1 Hershey bar. Now if we took these same average joes and offered to rent them out a wood and stucco ticky-tacky cookiecutter, they would gladly fork over an ENTIRE paycheck, EVERY month for it. This is why I am interested in RE and not metals, cashflow vs. hunks of metal in a vault.
That would be the only way I would "get in" to PM's is when they are dirt cheap. WHEN silver is back down to single digits, and gold down to $300, I would reconsider. With enough market manipulation at its current trends, this will be inevitable. As for supply and demand, well heck, silver will be $8 an ounce, and industry will just be shit out of luck, and have to use substitutes because the price discovery is totally broken. When silver becomes "too cheap" it will just be exhausted before TPTB let silver have a price discovery over $50 ceiling.
Mark Dice is... Err, dicey. It is not proof at all of people's perceptions. If he was offering a five bedroomed house for $5. How many people do you think would take the deal? None, I expect.
Why people can't see thru editing is beyond me. Like the blind taste test commercials they used to run on TeeVee when I was a kid. Then, Jaywalking with Jay Leno. They simply edit out unwanted answers!
As many have said before me, when the paper price goes to $300 you sure as shit won't be paying $300 for physical. If you can find any at all, it will be WAY over $300.
"With this legalized fraud, and absolutely nothing we can do about it, I fail to see the point of owning metals."
Everything is manipulated. Why own anything, then?
Yes paper manipulation can take the "paper" price anywhere "they" want BUT when you have an industrially essential commodity (eg silver) that the even most cost effecient mining company cannot extract from the Earth for lower than say $15 then at some point the miners must stop mining or go bust.
That moment when paper manipulation smacks its face into the closed gates of the mines shouldn't be too far away now I imagine.
The "average Joe" doesn't make the rules. Simple as that.
Good luck.
The9thDoctor ....
With all due respect, you do not invest in precious metals. You own them for insurance against currency 'mishaps'.
So, NOW would be a great time to pick some up if you haven't in the past.
P.S. In a 'perfect' world you might readily do that but in today's 'less than perfect' world AND totally broke-ass market ... good luck with that !!
9th doctor, its all how you look at it. Don't think of gold and silver as an investment like real estate. Think of it for what it is; MONEY. Those papers we have that say federal reserve note are not money. They are IOU's. Obviously, you don't want all your eggs in one basket, but its good to have precious metals because they hold value over time.QE has diluted the value of $'s even further. If the dollar loses reserve status they will quickly become worth much less. You may have a million dollars in the bank but what can you buy with it. History is full of examples of this happening and its only a matter of time before the $ has the same fate. Gold helps to preserve that wealth. It is money everywhere in the world and has been for thousands of years.
"This is why I don't invest in precious metals. The table is tilted, the game is rigged, it's a big club and we ain't in it. With this legalized fraud, and absolutely nothing we can do about it, I fail to see the point of owning metals."
Your stuck thinking in a fiat world. The history of paper money tells you all you need to know...THEY HAVE ALL FAILED. Thinking that "this time is different", that currency failure can´t happen in the 21st Century is foolish. The current fiat currencies in play today are all being printed into oblivion, and all the manipulation games currently underway are desperate attempts to maintain status quo. It works until it doesn´t, and when it fails, your phyzz and your other hard assets are the vehicles which store your wealth as you transition through the Great Reset and, if you have some wealth left once a new financial system is established, you can restart your life and thrive with needed seed capital. Most stackers follow this line of thinking. Some stack dreaming of massive fiat gains, yet refuse to think about what $10,000+ gold really means. It means with gold at those prices or higher, the existing fiat currency has lost the one thing that keeps it alive...confidence. Prices for all goods and services will adjust accordingly into the hyperinflationary once confidence is lost and current fiat currencies die off.
Just give a quik scan of the current situation we find the world in. Debt levels continue to increase every single day. Nobody is paying off any of the principle. Uncovered liabilities worldwide continue to explode. Total derivatives have long since entered the quadrillion zone. Default risks are everywhere. Everybody with at least half a brain knows it´s all unsustainable, and the math has been screaming this message from the rafters for years now. The system will fail, we just don´t know when. Take each day as another gift to prepare. The Great Reset will be horrible. Trade your paper for hard assets while they are still available.....and forget about the fiat price for it!
"In fact, before last year we had never been at even 40 owners per registered ounce - so we're truly entering uncharted territory."
Love the laughs but does anyone know why China is getting deliveries? Are they getting preferential treatment of some kind?
You'd be foolish to think otherwise.
This won't end well, and in addition can you say diluted by "tungstun"?
I prefer to say "wolfram." It just sounds cooler.
"It would not be very complicated for a next generation "Hunt Brother" to buy some $400 million in Comex gold, and promptly demand delivery: after all the gold crash of two weeks ago saw some $2.7 billion in paper gold dumped in the most illiquid market - why can't it be done in reverse."
One word: nailgun.
you cant nailgun the entire oligarchy of russia/china/india
remain calm
COMEX can just default on the physical and pay with paper (a check). It's in the rulebook (someone posted a link long ago here at ZH).
Correct. But still - that's alot of claims per oz
When Uncle Sugar has your back you don't fear redemptions.
We are being robbed -- it is criminal. They sell paper -- buy physical. When they have driven the price down far enough they will pay the sheeple back with of the $ they have collected and proudly anounce another great year at Goldman's -- or wherever this paticular fraud is being managed from....They should be jailed! Yikes and they wonder why people read ZH....a lot of frustration building.....
This is no problem. The answer is simple. The psychopaths add to physical supply by invading other nations and stealing theirs. See Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, USA (!), etc...
Cartel Gold-Grab in Syria as Nation Forced to Liquidate Gold Reserves to Mitigate Sanctions
Melted & blended it is not traceable. The transaction on the other hand...
Boo fuckin Hoo, this scheme only works because stupid people still buy paper. I'm not sure who to blame anymore.
And COMEX will continue to print contracts to the Moon because when everybody demands Gold Delivery then the Comex will cash settle the contracts...ideally at $0 (ZERO DOLLARS) per ounce so it costs the Comex NOTHING.
An unenforcable contract is VALUELESS.
That is how this game is being played out.
The price of Gold will decline to $0/ozt on the COMEX.
FOFOA was correct in his prediction.
Foiled again, rats.
Humor is good when dealing with bogus markets.
38BW, Right, I know that but what it does is help expose the scam/ponzi to the general public. If you want Gold then the Comex is not the place to be, that is, comex gives you no potential upside, because Comex will just give you yesterdays price and that is not why people own gold. If you want gold then you must own the physical. The comex will be exposed for what it is, a place where cheaters, manipulators, scammers, dis honest people play. If that is what you are, then play there, if you want to participate in gold then the physical market is the only place to be.
It would be a good exercise, and educational for all of us, but the billionaires might LOSE money if the paper price kept going down... Billionaires are typically not dumb.
Who knows.
Maybe THIS is why FOFOA says that BIG gold purchases likely are at higher prices even now than COMEX paper...
They can't lose,(or at the very least their downside is minimally limited) they just ask for delivery. as long as they coordinate their actions. They would stick it to them finally like they have been fucked by these immoral criminals for years
If the price of gold were in the process of skyrocketing as claims were being paid in cash instead of physical, wouldn't that drain the COMEX of gold AND cash, effectively rendering it insolvent? Either way, there are going to be plenty of sheeple left holding the bag.
It is because the contracts settle in cash and not in gold. As a result their can never be the delivery problems hoped for on this website.
Because COMEX defaulted a few years back, and it's irrelevant since the comex contracts all now state that they reserve the right to settle in CASH, so you can claim as much paper as you want, they'll give you whatever physical they want and the rest or all of it in cash.
Watch interviews with Rob Kirby, who actually sources large amounts of physical, and those people are paying 25%-50%+ premium over spot
Also i'm sure some of them are in on it, and others were probably told point blank that death squads will more be more than happy to come to dinner if they "rock the boat" so to speak.
I hope physical keeps going lower, i'm not bitching, the more physical i can buy the better...eventually, whether in a month or years it'll collapse regardless, and you end up with that much more true wealth.
Slammin_dude, doesn't that truly mean we are in the bizarro world...I mean, everything else on the entire planet gets a discount with volume. Heck, I bought a case of tomato's from the grocery store last weekend at 1/2 the "produce" price. Everything goes down with volume...even other commodities. A truck load of diesel is cheaper than what we pay at the local Shell station...so, if this phenomena is true with gold then gold truly is living in the bizarro world.
Could this, in theory, be what China is planning on doing? Underreporting their physical holdings, very slowly siphoning off physical availability, then requesting delivery that can't be delivered...undermining the entire commodity complex....writing off their paper gold, but watching their physical portfolio shoot to the moon? wow...that would be interesting.
Certainly would give them additional leverage. But at the moment I can't see the Chinese doing anything more with such leverage other than threatening to embarras the U.S, rather than actually doing it.
But let's just say, for example, one day China needed access to more security of oil supply which also conflicted with U.S interests but China was holding all the cards vis-a-vis its physical gold holdings and at that point they could accurately guess all the U.S had was it, standing in shallow water, the tide going out...and a whole load of naked shorts.
they want to live
Big shots CANNOT take delivery in SIZE....ask China...on record wanting another 8000 tons.
China CANNOT get 8000 tons at anywhere near $1100/ ounce.
Squirts and pipsqueaks can still get a few million in bullion but the really large players can't
Not exactly sure how they are told this but again...ask China.
China declared they wanted more gold than the USA in 2013. They want 8500 tons total. In the past 6 years they have acquired 600 tons. They have 3 trillion in reserves. Why couldn't China get the gold it wants and can afford?
Because gold is mispriced...by a lot. They would have to get it from those who already hold gold in size. Those who hold gold in size ain't selling....not for $1100 per ounce, or apparently for $1900 per ounce. After all China has been trying to get gold for quite a while.
It won't be long before a rogue central bank prints fiat and via some involved hedge fund, exchanges it for gold. The first one to break from the pack, wins. It's bound to happen. It is bound to be the end of fiat too.
Ever hear of the Hunt Bros?
Cause CME would tell them that they will paid in Cash.
Then if you take them to court for actual physical maybe things start to change.
SO if you want physical and they don't have it , they pay you usd spot rate.
Tough shit ..
Now if Gold ETF's were 100% backed and they were forced to pay back with physical .. Gold would see a nice increase.
These MF'rs are actually printing gold like it's fiat
with paper dollars, ha ha ha ha
It doesn't matter what the fuck they do as long as the sheeple think the note in their hand is worth something they'll get away with it.
It's not sheeple buying gold contracts. The people buying them know they're worth nothing in terms of physical.
This is just a tacit agreement between COMEX, the banks, and the Fed, that everyone will keep a lid on the gold price in exchange for a few extra funny bucks.
The problem is that COMEX is getting so divorced from reality that other pricing mechanisms are poised to assert themselves, and you get the freegold scenario. My guess is once gold launches everyone is going to rush into it because it'll have gains, which becomes a short-term self-perpetuating cycle. Gold will likely be among the last bubbles when denominated in fiat and it's going to be insane.
+100
And just like the tech and housing bubbles, I'll undoubtedly be early in my exit of the Au bubble, and will continue to sleep well.
they aren't printing gold - this is impossible*
what they ARE doing it printing a bunch of paper w/the word "gold" printed on it (/writing perl scripts that create database rows w/string "gold" in them). the volatility/dislocations/etc happens when people treat them as fungible w/possession of actual pm. as this disconnect starts to come into focus (or more accurately as the plausible deniability gets stripped away) should make for some interesting events. personally, I look st my pm(s) (mostly silver eagles) less as an investment & more as a type of "currency insurance". if I can sell them down the road at a massive profit god bless america but I've far more concerned w/acquiring food, medicine, etc over next 3-5 yrs than I am what they'll be worth in 10-20...
*well, it's technically possible but unlike diamonds so massively negative eroei nobody would ever attempt it at scale
a better way to express this for the 99% is to say that you go to the airport to find out that your flight on a 737 has been oversold -by 16,300 seats -since you have no status, and you arrived at the airport 40 minutes before flight time, they got you a Greyhound bus ticket.
People are gonna line up for the buses, even if they take them in the wrong direction. This is too much, I'm not sure if I want to laugh or cry.
What I find strange is that anyone would go near paper 'gold' under such circumstances.
When the financial system folds, I doubt those multiple 123s will want to form an orderly queue and the 124 better be prepared for trouble.
No Antifaschistische. That is almost correct.
124 out of 124 people...ALL OF THEM, who think that they own Gold as a direct cause of owning a COMEX contract, don't actually own any Gold because they own a contract. They actually own a contract. (Now they may own Physical Gold. But that is the only Gold which they actually own.)
CME Group has the right to Cash Settle any contract.
So the CME Group has every incentive in the world to push the price of those contracts even lower. The more contracts created the less that they are worth. And CME Group can pay NOTHING for the contracts if they can depress the price for a contract to ZERO...which is their intent.
"So sorry...Force Majuere"
Your pal forever, Jeffery Christian
Nice!
Agree: 124 of 124 paper holders are going to be disappointed.
most of those paper holders, are the ones controlling the game
funny to see the clueless and/or .gov trolls with the down votes against common sense and Constitutional money
Will some one please stick it up the CB'ers ass hole
Unless of course YOU are the CB'er.
It's up to us, even if you can, just buy one freaking ounce.
Ocean is accumulation of droplets, once you add more Yellow droplets to the mass, it would be difficult not to see the color yellow.
"Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit, but the highest form of intelligence,"- Oscar Wilde
-The number of junks your comment has recieved only serves to demonstrate the average IQ of the Zerohedge readership... What a shame.
wow, aren't you a winner?
Bollocks I say. Hymies shell games are never lacking in actual substance.
Yep, except there is 1 pea under any one of 124 shells it seems.
pods
There is only one winning move in Global Thermonuclear War and that is not to play.
Miffed;-)
I was going to say that it is like getting a cashiers check, paying premiums, and it is subject to price changes, but you said it SO MUCH BETTER. I bow to the superior comment...twice.
If the banksters could deny to deliver Germany their gold, I'm pretty sure they will do the same with everyone else if necessary.
Didn't the Austrians and Nederlands also ask for Gold back.
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/the-netherlands-has-repatr...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-23/real-reason-why-netherlands-rep...
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/29/austrias-central-bank-to...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_repatriation
I notice that there are less gold coins at online dealers. I need to find some new links for details.
- 2015 American Buffalo Bullion sales by oz
January, 34,500
February, 12,000
March, 9,500
April, 10,000
May, 9,500
June, 21,000
July, 32,000
http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&typ...
- 2015 American Gold Eagle Sales by OZ:
January, 81,000
February, 18,500
March, 46,500
April, 29,500
May, 21,500
June, 76,000
July, 170,000
-
So, Top Graph doesn't appear to show Gold Buffalo 1 OZ.
Found a Website indicating possible bottom of Gold Coin Sales for 5 Major Mints is 2.5 - 3 Million Coins for 2014 except some data is missing: American Gold Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, South African Krugerrand, Austrian Philharmonic, Australian Kangroo (only 5 Mints Surveyed)
http://www.usagold.com/bulliongoldcoinsales.html
The world over, people are looking into Bitcoin more than gold, BUT this will definitely change as people tend to chase price not buy at bottoms. People will see this. As Andy Hoffman said... America is America's Greece!
FFS
It is my understanding that only about a million people use bitcoin, if anything is a useless relic... you know they used to use sea shells and beads in trade for currency as well, but i don't find much more than about 30 million users globally for those these days. Still 30x bitcoin though.
What's the "only" all about? It has a faster growth rate than the internet did. Btw that number is more like 5-10 million now, and growing almost exponentially.
The bitcoin phenomenon is over. Only the suckers are still holding on the fantasy. Maybe it will remain useful for executing some transactions. But no one with half a brain is gonna try to store value in bitcoin.
Exponential growth...we all know how well that ends. Creating something from nothing... the Fed cornered that marked a long time ago. Wealth and exchange based on a password and a prayer...even die hard Atheists have less faith. I suppose anything can be used for trade, but i have more faith in US cotton and ink.
l1b3rty what total rubbish the market cap of bitoin is a little over 4billion - the gold market is many trillions.
I woke a bit early today and at about 5:00 this morning there was a program (to program) on the Fed & our money. The one thing in it, most memorable was the moderator or whatever he is asked "do you ever get tired of moving and managing moving gold?" The answer stunned me a bit...and i paraphrase but to the best he said "Gold is money, it is always shiny, it is always exciting. I never tire of seeing it, holding it, or thinking about its permanent value, everyone wants gold in the end." From a Fed employee/supervisor? I may have mucked it up, but that is how i understood him.
all your gold belongs to us because it's simply barbaric relic to you.
Anyone foolish enough to buy paper gold will be corzined
Long relics.
Fortune and glory Doctor Jones, fortune and glory.
I feel like I've read this story before. They didn't run out of gold when this was a story starting a few years back, I doubt they will now. Besides, if they can't deliver physical gold, they'll just offer you a very nice cash settlement instead that you won't be allowed to refuse.
Remember, if you don't hold it, you don't own it.
Just wondering if there is a similar situation with silver? Hmmmmmm, let's see I think I remember some firm with a name like Morgan or Chase or J something like that who had some paper silver thingys that when they all added up were a tad short of the actual metal even if they managed to collect up ALL THE SILVER EVER MINED IN HISTROY or something like that.
Anyone want to calculate the "real price" or "real value" of the other shiny stuff?
I'll get my accountant on it right away
Oops, he says it's all gone.
Jp Morgan is actually net long silver now, completely changed their position in the last two years, Citi or whoever is net short now..
this of course would explain the phony paper price actions in both forms of REAL MONEY today - no wouldnt it?
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.
Yeah, but those paper claims are like fiat dollars. They can only be traded for stuff other than REAL gold. it's kinda like printing gold.
I'm a multi-millionare!
You try it at home!
1080 x 123 x #of ounces in your posession.
I already sold claims on my gold to all my neighbors the last few years. Amazing how far you can stretch a few measly ounces with infinite rehypothecation.
You will need to get your mad Corzine Skillz on when the time is right.
No red necks allowed, right.
Buy some good quality gold paint and tungsten and offer a substitute.
Miffed;-)
Infinite rehypothecation, the new entrepreneurial actions.
I am going to IPO my new firm: Golden Rehypothecation. Ticker: AUHYP
do you mean 1080 x 123 x # of oz at the bottom of the lake?
Since I'm not one of the smarter commenters on this site, please tell me what's wrong with this calculation of the price of gold:
123.8 paper claims for every ounce of physical gold = $1086.10 (current spot price) x 123.8 = True gold value of $134,459.18/oz
I know there are many more factors involved...cost of production, etc, but that price would be nice. I just want to pay off my house with a Kruggerand then blow the rest on hookers and booze.
Great minds, Meat Hammer (see above).
Congrats on being a multi-millionaire, MsCreant. Let's party.
If only we could collect, I would arrange to meet you and everyone for a knock down, drag out, throw down, HOE down.
I have found a total of three ways to "plausibly calculate" an eventual price of gold between $40,000 and $100,000. I saw that one blogger (not FOFOA) a few months ago estimated $130,000 or so.
But who knows.
Jim Rickards estimates $6000 - $9000 based on China wanting to have enough gold so that the Yuan could be part of the SDR.
In today's world of rehypothecation and QE it's virtually impossible to estimate the barbarous relic's true value, but it is fun to engage in the mental masturbation, nonetheless. I like the idea of walking down to my lender's local branch office and flipping a gold coin to the loan officer, followed by a loud, "Gimme my deed, bitches!!!"
One of my lil ol fantasies too...
And ask him for the fucking change!
The true value of gold will be exposed when you need it most.
Brilliant !!! Hookers and Blow with $134K what a party that would be.
Blankfeins son would triple dog dare ya, you will end up with Bubba's sister screwing up your ass because her EBT stopped working.
Been there. Done that. 2004. Two consecutive nights at Scores in NY. Total $135,000.
Was entertaining a group of potential clients and things got out of hand. My business partner submitted the AMEX bill for reimbursement on Monday after we got back to Florida, and I told him to pay it himself. Needless to say the partnership did not last.
By the way, even though we eventually closed the deal, it was so not worth it.
What's wrong with it is that consenting buyers and sellers are exchaning physical gold at $1086.10 still.
Are you familiar with the concept of "premium"?
To the tune of $133k, per OP's actual question?
Didn't think so.
I'd be happy to take yours off your hands at $1086.10.
It doesn't really matter that there are 123 potential claims for every ounce in the futures market.
All commodities futures trade the same way. It's not as if the supply of gold has been artificially inflated 123x, pushing the price down.
At first it will push down the price if globally understood, because folks won't trust each other and the paper price will reflect that. No one will want the icky paper.
I may be wrong, but the 123 claim tickets, in my mind, reflect unmet demand.
Unmet demand? Or unreal supply? :-)
Yes unreal supply. But 122 other folks holding the bag wanted gold. Demand.
If physical is really worth 123x more than spot, then why isn't everyone trying to take delivery and sell for a massive profit?
There have been people who have tried to "Break the Comex." The idea was to have enough big buyers show up at the same time demanding delivery. They changed the contracts so that they could get away with settling in cash, instead of metal, if they are short.
The idea is to discover the real value if all the NAKED (uncovered by gold) paper contracts were removed from the market. What would the price of gold be then?
The whole commodities complex is like this, lots of naked paper being handed around out there. Even naked companies being traded on the stock exchanges. Then you have the Fed printing into this thing, the derrivatives market (CDS and such) that if defaults were to happen all at the same time, could never be covered, and we are in a very precarious situaion where no one knows the "real" value of anything.
You wouldn't need a concerted effort to break the Comex if there was a legit pricing mismatch between spot and physical.
If there was demand for physical at prices far above spot, then you better believe that people would be taking delivery of as much physical as they could get their hands on at the 'fake', lower Comex price.
So why isn't this happening?
comex only delivers more paper
i suspect many of those kinda buyers left comex for the shanghai gold exchange, where its deliver-only/no rehypothecation
the real question is at what point does shanghai get the nod from the chinese authorities and untie their price fix from the comex boat?
Your note contains "what's wrong with this calculation" in the body of the note itself. It's a self-serving prediction. It's wishful thinking. Which isn't thinking at all; it's just "wishful".
Wow, I could afford a girlfriend/non-English speaking maid.
Is silver roughly the same ratio? I thought it was higher.
please tell me what's wrong with this calculation of the price of gold:
123.8 paper claims for every ounce of physical gold = $1086.10 (current spot price) x 123.8 = True gold value of $134,459.18/oz
Ha, that would be nice, wouldn't it? But you're forgetting two things... i) the actual COMEX trade is actually only a small percentage of the total amount of gold in existence, and ii) as prices rose, many holders would dishoard in exchange for cash to buy stuff, thereby increasing supply.