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History's Future
One of the assumptions about technical analysis' efficacy is that history tends to repeat itself and, based on historical examples, the future can be anticipated with greater clarity than just hopeful guessing (a skill bulls exhibit with particular panache).
I tripped across an interesting example of this far afield from the world of finances. It has more to do with geopolitics. Check out this quote from a historian made before the cold war ever started and see if, based on what happened, it rings true (I've boldfaced some parts):
Today there are two great peoples on earth who, starting from different points, seem to advance toward the same goal: these are the Russians and the Anglo-Americans. Both grew up in obscurity; and while the attention of men was occupied elsewhere, they suddenly took their place in the first rank of nations, and the world learned of their birth and their greatness nearly at the same time. All other peoples seem to have almost reached the limits drawn by nature, and have nothing more to do except maintain themselves; but these two are growing. All the others have stopped or move ahead only with a thousand efforts; these two alone walk with an easy and rapid stride along a path whose limit cannot yet be seen. The American struggles against obstacles that nature opposes to him; the Russian is grappling with men. The one combats the wilderness and barbarism; the other, civilization clothed in all its arms. Consequently the conquests of the American are made with the farmer’s plow, those of the Russian with the soldier’s sword. To reach his goal the first relies on personal interest, and, without directing them, allows the strength and reason of individuals to operate. The second in a way concentrates all the power of society in one man. The one has as principal means of action liberty; the other, servitude. Their point of departure is different, their paths are varied; nonetheless, each one of them seems called by a secret design of Providence to hold in its hands one day the destinies of half the world.
So when do you think this prediction was made? Perhaps during the mayhem of World War 2, as a scholar looked past the war to anticipate what was ahead?
Nope. The above was written in the 1830s, over a hundred years before World War 2 even began, by Alexis de Tocqueville in "Democracy in America". Pretty astonishing, isn't it? Could you imagine making a sweeping prediction about the world's construct in the year 2120 and being more or less correct? I, for one, am in awe of the foresight required to have speculated with such prescience. Nostradamus had nothing on this guy.
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There are two subjects here :
1° is de Tocqueville as a man
2° the geopolitics of his epoch.
1° About Tocqueville : a man deeply influenced by the Enlightenment, its fascination with individual freedom outside DOGMA fed on Humanism, and the subsequent trauma of seeing his country fall into terror, despotism and finally into Napoleon's militarism; aka absolutist Caesarism; only to find the circle comes fully to point of origin in the return to kingly Restoration.
So... Montesquieu is disillusioned by European evolution and return to Congress of Vienna reactionary order.
He WANTS NEW FRONTIER to forget this past dystopia.
2° About his search for new frontier. He finds it in the USA, young european nation, destined to build NEW ORDER and in Russia, old euroasian nation faced with OLD ORDER of Asian feudal/tribal barbarism.
It explains his conundrum as exposed in this excerpt of his philosophy; But its true that history rhymes...'Cos America today is like France of Tocqueville's times : a broken clock.
We all need a new frontier (new paradigm, as the frontier is now meaningless in a global village).
Thanks Tim,
Tocqueville also wrote, at about the same time, that "no American dies in the same country into which he was born."
He found the rate of change amazing. Some of us still do.
It would halp if the author of this "gee whiz" note had an education and some idea what the world looked like in 1830; but of course he doesn't.
What did Edgar Cayce think of all this?
I predict that The Market is going down baby!
Oh, just wishful thinking.
The Chinese leaders are dropping acid faster than Silicon valley. We have an acid gap with China.
note, in all this, Alexis_de_Tocqueville's perspective
first, he talks about the... others. the "Anglo-Americans" and the "Russians". to a continental european audience, the unmentioned third and watching side
second, he talks about how those two great peoples on Earth are growing (in the 1930's perspective)
third, note that he was one of the great liberals. which is a label that does not translate into the modern American political discourse, unless you specify "classical liberalism"
fourth, note how often he is misquoted. particularly by English-speaking websites
If one has made the correct observations and understands the laws of Nature and physics, making solid predictions is not so challenging. In addition, most sheep belive even the most vague predictions if even partially true. great South Park episode of this kind of bullshit.
The correct observation is that a rock falls faster than a feather.
It's very easy for dwarfs to pontificate when standing on the shoulders of giants.
Amazing prediction.
He got lucky.
He was a close student of people, but if he came back today he would cry because America has given up its potential for some shiny trinkets. The hard road is ignored and avoided at all costs nowadays. I hope we do better on the next go-around, because we've certainly fucked this one up....
The one thing that is predictable is human nature. we have watched it in operation for many generations and while its tools and technology have advanced, its theme remains the same.
Bingo. In fact, I'd put forth the proposition that the truly disruptive times occur during the rare times when humans actually don't behave as expected...