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"Seasonally Data Dependent": Adjusted New Orders Highest In 2015; Unadjusted Lowest Since 2013
As reported earlier, the only silver lining in today's Manufacturing ISM reported which was not only released earlier after MNI broke the embargo, but a miss to expectations, had just one silver lining: New Orders rose from 56.0 to 56.5. This was also the highest New Orders print since December of 2014, and was the only bright spot in an otherwise terrible report.
Even the ISM's Holcombe was quick to praise it.
- US ISM'S HOLCOMB: NEW ORDERS AT HIGH FOR YEAR VERY POSITIVE
However, a more than cursory look at the headline reveals something quite unpositive: the only reason they New Orders print came where it did, is due to seasonal adjustments.
As the chart below shows, which tracks the Manufacturing ISM New Orders history, while the seasonally adjusted New Orders datapoint was indeed the highest since 2015, the unadjusted, or one which merely reflects what respondents are saying even as they already factor in for seasonals (which goes back to the idiocy of seasonally adjusting a survey which is already subliminally adjusted) New Orders of 52.5 was the lowest print not only in 2015, but the lowest since December 2013.
Just to repeat because it bears repeating: the exact same data point can either be the highest since 2014 or the lowest since 2013 depending on whether one "seasonally adjusts" it.
And this is the "data" that the Fed has to work with: is it any wonder Yellen has absolutely no clue what to do?
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Just......lol.
Why does anyone even bother reporting official lies masquerading as economic data?
because they are an integral part of the narrative. witness how just recently the head of the Greek ELSTAT gave up his post, citing "personal reasons"
the same independent national statistical service that the current Greek gov would like to have non-independent, with a head reporting to the gov
anyway, the differences and problems between adjusted and non-adjusted are old
the main problem with unadjusted data is that it needs qualified, knowledgeable and reliable commentary, and that might "make heads hurt"
i dont have a problem with seasonally adjusting data. it's a fact that xmas drives spending a way that spring does not, and that gasoline consumption changes as the seasons do.
the dodgy part of it is the outright refusal to release the method of weight calculation.
Sheep herding at its finest. Hiding reality is much better than admiting we're totally screwed and since numbers has replaced reality, the road goes on forever......
I wonder if rioting in the streets when this farce collapses has already been factored in. "Seasonally Adjusted Anarchy Rate"......
I seasonally adjust my penis. It's at least 14 feet long. You just need to "massage" your "numbers" more often.
"We adjusted some folks."
-Adolph Hitler
Old yeller know swhat to do. Lie, cheat and steal. just like all bankers.
Ms. Yellen? Believe it or not, I judge her as one of the best qualified persons that have ever led the FED
which, frankly, makes me think that the FED is so much in the muck that they gave up on internal politics, supported her and are crossing their fingers
She is qualified on the basis that nobody is going to question the integrity of a sweet old lady like grandma Yellen.
No, I won't do it. I am an American and refuse to follow the path leading to my Country's demise.
I just want to know when all this bs ends
im going to "seasonally adjust" my taxes this year. IRS will understand.
Just sign your name "Lois" and they will not care.
I thought the point of seasonal adjustments was to smooth out seasonal volitility, but looking at that chart it seems to do the opposite.
Also where is the downward sloping red arrow that Tyler usually adds?
The proper point of comparison is the same period of time in previous annual cycles. Ergo, seasonal adjustments are ridiculous on the face of it.
Imagine the convolutions necesary to "seasonally adjust" the sale of winter clothing or beach towels. Do the actual sales of heavy coats in November go underreported in order to shift some of those numbers over to the July total?
Actually, it isn't necessary to imagine at all, since the government has taken even this small privilege away and done it for us.